FINAL Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor and Actress

So, here we go! On Thursday, the Oscar nominations will be released. I’ve been blogging often with my predictions.

Starting this evening, I am dividing my FINAL predictions into four posts: Best Supporting Actor/Actress tonight, Best Actor/Actress on Monday, Best Director on Tuesday, and Best Picture on Wednesday. On Thursday, you’ll have my complete analysis of the nominations and some early hints on what and whom I believe will win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

My picks in this category haven’t really changed much over the last couple of months. I have a nagging suspicion there will be a surprise nominee… none of the five I’m picking would be considered surprises. Those surprises could include Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained. I can’t help but think of 2006 when prognosticators assumed Jack Nicholson would get a supporting nod for The Departed, but it ended up being Mark Wahlberg nominated for the film. The smart money is on Leo DiCaprio getting nominated and my predictions reflect that. But, don’t be too surprised if Waltz gets the nod instead. There’s even an outside shot Samuel L. Jackson could get the nod for Django as well… he’s seemed to gain a little steam over the last couple of weeks. Another nominee that would be considered fairly surprising is Matthew McConaughey for Magic Mike. He’s had a great 2012, with acclaimed roles in Mike and the comedy Bernie. And there’s the chance that Javier Bardem, with his terrific turn as the bad guy in Skyfall, could be recognized. All that being said, I can’t bring myself to pick any of them and I’m playing it safe with the same five actors I’ve had for quite a few weeks.

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

These picks also reflect the same five actresses as my last predictions. Again, I’m supremely not confident about my picks. I think Anne Hathaway and Sally Field are shoo-ins. They’ve been so for months. The rest of the field is unpredictable. When the Golden Globe and SAG nominations came out, everyone was shocked to Nicole Kidman nominated for the critically panned and little-seen drama The Paperboy. Many now believe that recognition will translate into an Oscar nod. I wouldn’t be surprised, but still can’t predict her. Other “surprises” that wouldn’t shock me include Judi Dench in Skyfall and Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook. Up until my last round of predictions, I had Amy Adams in The Master listed, but dropped her in favor of a somewhat surprise pick, Ann Dowd in the indie thriller Compliance. I’m sticking with it.

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Ann Dowd, Compliance

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Tomorrow, check in for my final picks for Best Actor and Actress!