Oscar Predictions: Best Actor/Actress

As a continuation of my post from two days ago regarding Oscar predictions, here are my thoughts on who we will see nominated in the categories of Best Actor and Best Actress. As with my first, I will predict in four categories: Shoo-Ins, Strong Possibilities, Possible, and Long Shots.

BEST ACTOR

SHOO-INS

Daniel Day-Lewis is a lock for a nomination in Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln. He is considered by many to be the finest actor working today and with the awards attention that the film is bound to receive, it is unfathomable that he won’t be nominated. Interestingly, if Day-Lewis were to win the Oscar, he would set a record by being the only person to win Best Actor three times (he won in 1989 for My Left Foot and in 2007 for There Will Be Blood). Nine actors have won the award twice. Other than Day-Lewis, more recent ones include Sean Penn, Tom Hanks, Dustin Hoffman, and Jack Nicholson.

The other shoo-in is Joaquin Phoenix for The Master, who gives possibly a career best performance. The Academy loves to reward a comeback and after Phoenix’s strange history since his last nomination for Walk the Line (including his bizarre documentary I’m Still Here and notorious appearance on David Letterman’s show), he’ll get noticed.

STRONG POSSIBILITIES

John Hawkes is a near shoo-in for his performance as a quadriplegic in The Sessions and Denzel Washington is said to give his one of best performances in the upcoming Flight.

POSSIBLE

This list is longer with a number of actors possibly filling that fifth slot. I’m convinced Hawkes will be nominated and I’m predicting Washington even though the film’s not out yet. Two possibles are for films no one’s seen yet but depending on reviews could get in: Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables and Anthony Hopkins as Alfred Hitchcock in Hitchcock. Bradley Cooper could certainly see his first nomination for Silver Linings Playbook, which has received fantastic buzz since its festival screenings. In Arbitrage, Richard Gere has gotten some of the best reviews of his career. He’s never been nominated before and the Academy may feel it’s time. Bill Murray playing President Franklin D. Roosevelt seems like an Oscar match, however the film’s buzz at festival screenings was mixed. The Austrian festival favorite Amour gave its lead Jean-Louis Trintignant fabolous reviews and it’s not too rare for the Academy to fill a slot with an actor in a foreign film (Benigni and Dujardin have won in recent times). And the extremely positive reaction to Argo could certainly propel Ben Affleck to his first acting nomination.

LONG SHOTS

So you get the idea that this field is extraordinarily crowded this year. There’s always the possibility of a long shot though and they are: Suraj Sharma for Life of Pi, Brad Pitt for Killing Them Softly, Jamie Foxx for Django Unchained, Jake Gyllenhall for End of Watch, and Matt Damon for Promised Land.

THE PREDICTIONS

Having said all that, I’m finding it very difficult to pick the fifth nominee. I could easily see it being Hopkins, Jackman, Cooper, Gere, Trintignant, or Affleck. If Washington somehow if left out, two of them could fill in. This list is very subject to change, but here goes:

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

BEST ACTRESS

Directly opposite from Best Actor, the field for Best Actress this year is one of the weakest in recent memory. Only ten actresses get mentioned here and half will get in. It’s been a pretty disappointing year for strong female roles.

SHOO-INS

Just one. Jennifer Lawrence will get her second nomination in three years and not for Hunger Games. Her performance in Silver Linings Playbook is getting raves and it doesn’t hurt that she headlined the aforementioned picture, which was one of the year’s biggest blockbusters.

STRONG POSSIBILITIES

Again, just one. Marion Cotillard won Best Actress in 2007 for La Vie En Rose and had a showcase role in Dark Knight Rises in the summer. Her foreign film Rust and Bone drew her great notices on the festival circuit.

POSSIBLE

I see three out of the next five getting in. No one’s seen Hitchcock, as I mentioned, but Helen Mirren is likely to be looked at for playing Hitchcock’s wife. Emmanuelle Riva got raves for Amour. Quvenzhane Wallis, a child actress, headlines the indie favorite Beasts of the Southern Wild. Naomi Watts is getting positive advance word for The Impossible. And Keira Knightly may be nominated for playing Anna Karenina, even though the film is said to be just OK.

LONG SHOTS

You can never totally count Meryl Streep out and her work in Hope Springs might get a look. The others are Judi Dench for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Mary Elizabeth Windstead in the indie Smashed.

THE PREDICTIONS

Lawrence and Cotillard are in. The others are tough to predict right now and I’m leaving Naomi Watts out at the moment, even though I believe she’s got an excellent shot.

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

That’s all for now, folks! I’ll be back soon with predictions for Supporting Actor and Actress!