Tag: Zoe Saldaña

97th Academy Awards Predictions: November 17th Edition

My first Oscar predictions in two weeks and it’s about what narratives I’m buying and which ones I’m selling. For example, I’m currently not sold that Paramount’s September 5 is the contender that some other prognosticators think it is.

On the flip side, I am starting to buy that Conclave is on the rise. The Focus Features effort from Edward Berger is performing well at the box office for an adult skewering drama. I think it has to a shot to win the big prize and that’s why you’ll see it elevated in multiple categories.

While my BP and directorial and Best Actress lineups are unchanged as far as hopefuls, Daniel Craig (Queer) returns to my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). In Supporting Actor, it is the same five but Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is perched atop the list for the first time. In Supporting Actress, I’m banking on Isabella Rossellini potentially riding that Conclave goodwill and that leaves Ariana Grande (Wicked) on the outside looking in.

You can read all the movement below and the next update should arrive on Thanksgiving weekend!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Substance (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)

15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 8) (+2)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

John Magaro, September 5

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: 9) (+3)

7. September 5 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Universal Language (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Grand Tour (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Armand

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Most Precious of Cargoes

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daughters (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gaucho Gaucho

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anora (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Substance (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)

4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Twisters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Twisters (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)

7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

9 Nominations

The Brutalist, Conclave

6 Nominations

Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Saturday Night, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Toronto Gives Awards Life to Chuck

The Toronto Film Festival has concluded its 2024 business with the reveal of its People’s Choice Award and the 1st and 2nd runners-up for the prize. This announcement is eagerly awaited by Oscar prognosticators and for good reason. Since the Academy expanded beyond 5 nominees for Best Picture (it now stands at a firm ten but has been 8 or 9 in other years), the People’s Choice recipient has received a BP nod in 14 of those 15 years. The exception was 2011 when Where Do We Go Now? was the victor. Therefore the past 12 winners were Oscar BP contenders.

In 2023, we saw Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction vaulted into contention and ended up with five total nominations, taking the statue for Adapted Screenplay. In 2010, there was only one runner-up. Since 2009, that means 44 features have been People’s Choice selections or runner-ups. Of those 44, 25 went onto Academy nominations for BP. This includes Best Picture winners The King’s Speech, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight, Green Book, Parasite, and Nomadland. In recent years, it’s become the norm for 2 of the 3 movies that Toronto names to make the Oscar ten. In addition to Fiction last year, The Holdovers was 1st runner-up.

All that context is pretext to an obvious point… this is a key precursor to the Oscars. Much speculation centered on Sean Baker’s Anora taking TIFF’s highest honor. The acclaimed film already picked up the Palme d’Or at Cannes and is seen as a threat to not only be nominated for Best Picture, but win. Mikey Madison is among the frontrunners for Best Actress. Instead it was 2nd runner-up. That third place showing, by the way, has been shared by Spotlight, Call Me by Your Name, Roma, Parasite, and The Power of the Dog.

First runner-up went to another Cannes premiere: Jacques Audiard’s musical crime flick Emilia Pérez. It’s also widely assumed to be a BP hopeful a few months down the line with potential acting nominations for Karla Sofia Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, and Selena Gomez. Recent 1st runners-up include Argo, Marriage Story, and the aforementioned The Holdovers.

Had Anora or Pérez gotten first place, no one would have been surprised. Same logic applies to Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night which was picked by some to win, place, or show. The actual recipient was unexpected and it’s The Life of Chuck from Mike Flanagan. It joins fellow People’s Choice honorees Precious, The King’s Speech, Silver Linings Playbook, The Imitation Game, Room, La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Green Book, Jojo Rabbit, Nomadland, Belfast, and The Fabelmans.

Mr. Flanagan is best known for his contributions to the horror genre. That includes adaptations of Stephen King novels Gerald’s Game and Doctor Sleep. His largest claim to fame is his show running work on Netflix series The Haunting of Hill House, Midnight Mass, and The Fall of the House of Usher.

Chuck is a departure… sort of. It’s adapted from a Stephen King novella, but is more of a sci-fi effort. Reviews were solid (87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 66 on Metacritic). However, this was not really seen as a BP contender. Distribution and the release date are still influx. There’s no trailer.

Its awards narrative has certainly changed as of today. You can expect the People’s Choice champ starring Tom Hiddleston, Mark Hamill, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, and Jacob Tremblay to pick up a distributor in a hurry. An awards campaign will surely follow. I’ve yet to even consider Chuck in my top 25 possibilities for BP. That won’t be the case when I pen my next update. Even if it’s not ultimately up for BP, Adapted Screenplay seems like a strong possibility now. Make no mistake. Toronto has given unanticipated life to Chuck.

Oscar Predictions – Joker: Folie à Deux

There are some genuine awards related surprises as it pertains to the Venice Film Festival debut for Joker: Folie à Deux today. It is not shocking that the Todd Phillips sequel to his billion plus 2019 grosser is garnering wildly divergent reactions. So did the original. I’m talking about some unexpected housekeeping items. For one, Lady Gaga’s performance as Harley Quinn is said to be a clear Supporting Actress play and not lead. In my updated Oscar predictions post yesterday, I slotted her for the first time (at #5) in Actress. That will obviously change. Another tidbit is that despite Deux being a musical, there doesn’t appear to be any original songs for consideration. I’ve listed a TBD tune in my quintet of forecasted contenders for several weeks. That, too, will be corrected when I updated Academy projections shortly (probably Sunday).

Prior to its October 4th stateside premiere (exactly five years after part one), the follow-up has premiered in Italy just like the last one did. The first Joker started its Oscar run by taking the Golden Lion (equivalent to Best Picture) in Venice. It ended up receiving a ceremony high 11 nominations at the 92nd Academy Awards including Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and several tech races. Joaquin Phoenix received the gold statue in Best Actor eleven years after Heath Ledger won Supporting Actor as the same character in The Dark Knight. The Original Score by Hildur Guõnadóttit was also victorious.

Phoenix is back as the iconic comic book villain along with Gaga, a returning Zazie Beetz, Brendan Gleeson, and Catherine Keener supporting. Even more so than what took place a half decade ago, Folie appears to be drawing even more divisive word-of-mouth. The Metacritic score is 54 based on nearly 25 reviews thus far. Some are calling it brilliant while others are saying this is a huge misfire.

The Academy is unlikely to show the same affection that they did with Joker. BP, Director, and Actor seem improbable. I’ve yet to include Deux in my top 10 picks for BP and that doesn’t appear to be changing. Down the line races like Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Original Score (from Hildur again) could occur. Yet the Academy might just ignore this altogether or maybe throw it a bone in one or two of the aforementioned categories.

Back to Gaga. She was nominated in Actress for 2018’s A Star is Born and was expected to be up for 2021’s House of Gucci. She didn’t make the cut for Gucci. Supporting Actress could include heavy hitters like Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez from Emilia Pérez, Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), among others whose films have yet to be unveiled. Gaga is getting good ink as Quinn, but there may not be room for her to get in the door. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 4th Edition

Hello America. As we celebrate our birthday today, perhaps the biggest awards news this week came from the Venice Film Festival. It kicks off in late August and the surprise announcement was that Tim Burton’s long in the works sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will open the Italian competition prior to its September 6th domestic theatrical bow.

That caused some prognosticators’ to speculate whether the Warner Bros release will make a play for Oscar inclusion. I wouldn’t go that far. In the past decade and a half, some of the premiere gala pics at Venice have generated BP nods including Black Swan, Gravity, Birdman, and La La Land. There’s been more that haven’t such as The Ides of March, Everest, Downsizing, First Man, and White Noise. That’s why you won’t find Beetlejuice Beetlejuice in my 25 possibilities for BP though I would expect to see its name (twice) in races like Makeup and Hairstyling and Production Design when I expand the category predictions a few weeks from now.

The London Film Festival shared its own scheduling report that Steve McQueen’s WWII drama Blitz will kick off that event in October before its November 1st output on the big screen. It will then hit Apple TV on November 22nd. I am a little befuddled that it is skipping Venice and Toronto, but it still appears to be Apple’s most significant contender. The word is also out that Saoirse Ronan will contend in lead Actress and not supporting for Blitz. That may well put her in competition with herself considering the acclaimed The Outrun (which was first seen at Sundance) and should make its way to theaters later this fall. I’ve had Ronan’s performance in Blitz slotted in supporting, but she makes the move up and replaces her Outrun work in the lead quintet. The buzz also has Harris Dickinson as the main supporting play over costars like Stephen Graham and Leigh Gill. Same with Kathy Burke in Supporting Actress. We’ll see if that holds true when those Londoners get eyeballs on it.

Another note – you may notice that Sing Sing is still #1 in BP while its director Greg Kwedar is on the outside looking in at sixth. That may seem counterintuitive. While it is still rare for a potential BP recipient to not see its maker in the cut for Director, it’s happened twice very recently with 2018’s Green Book and 2021’s CODA. Kwedar’s picture seems like the type of emotional crowdpleaser that could go all the way with voters. However, Kwedar himself may not make the quintet for his behind the camera efforts. I do anticipate him being up for the Adapted Screenplay that he cowrote.

Nickel Boys is the most significant gainer this time around. It moves into the BP ten while Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor vaults to #1 in Supporting Actress. The pic also materializes for the first go-round in Adapted Screenplay.

Speaking of that writing competition, I’ve shifted Emilia Pérez from Original to Adapted though that has not been determined at press time. We also have a new #1 in Adapted with my aforementioned BP leader Sing Sing.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 16) (+7)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)

12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (E)

13. The End (PR: 10) (-3)

14. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Gladiator II (PR: 24) (+9)

16. A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-2)

17. The Room Next Door (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Nosferatu (PR: 25) (+7)

19. Maria (PR: 19) (E)

20. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 21) (+1)

21. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-6)

22. His Three Daughters (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Dídi (PR: 23) (E)

24. We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Here (PR: 20) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Hit Man

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (E)

11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)

14. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (-5)

11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

15. Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The End

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-5)

13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz – moved to lead Actress

Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 12) (+7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-5)

11. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-1)

14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michael Shannon, The End

Barry Keoghan, Bird

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The End (PR: 3) (-5)

9. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Dídi (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Maria (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Challengers (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

8. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Hit Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Inside Out 2 (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)

13. The Collaboration (PR: 11) (-2)

14. The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Here (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Actor

97th Academy Awards Predictions: June 23rd Edition

It has been two weeks since my previous Oscar predictions in the eight major categories of Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions.

Perhaps the biggest development in that time frame (nothing really significant happened via the Tribeca Film Festival) is the massive box office performance for Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2. Not only did it land the second highest animated feature debut of all time, it just scored the biggest second weekend ($100 million) for its genre in history. As it is easily exceeding expectations at multiplexes, could it sneak into the Best Picture race?

I doubt it. There have only been 3 animated pics up for the grand prize (all Disney): 1991’s Beauty and the Beast, 2009’s Up, and 2010’s Toy Story 3. You’ll notice that 2015’s Inside Out is not on the list and it garnered stronger reviews than its sequel. Part 2 is a shoo-in for an Animated Feature nom and it could even make an appearance in Adapted Screenplay (though you’ll see its toward the bottom of my hopefuls).

As far as rankings, there is movement to discuss. I’ve vaulted Amy Adams to #1 in my Best Actress quintet for Nightbitch. It was announced earlier this week that it will screen at the Toronto Film Festival in September and that Adams will receive the Tribute Performer Award while there. Other recent takers of that prize are Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale). Wanna take a wild guess what they all have in common?

Oh… there’s more. I am now putting Sing Sing atop the charts for Best Picture over Steve McQueen’s Blitz. The buzz for the former has been steady since its Toronto unveiling in 2023 and it sounds like the type of crowdpleaser that the Academy could eat up. Like CODA from 2021, it could be a BP recipient where its director fails to get nominated. Speaking of that category, I’m elevating Denis Villeneuve to the top spot for Dune: Part Two over McQueen.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 4) (+3)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)

6. Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)

10. The End (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Nightbitch (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)

13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A Real Pain (PR: 18) (+4)

15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)

16. Nickel Boys (PR: 14) (-2)

17. His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-4)

18. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

19. Maria (PR: 16) (-3)

20. Here (PR: 23) (+3)

21. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+1)

22. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-3)

23. Dídi (PR: 20) (-3)

24. Gladiator II (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bird

Kinds of Kindness

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Pablo Larrain, Maria

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (E)

8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Demi Moore, The Substance

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (E)

12. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

George MacKay, The End

Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Emily Watson, Small Things like These

Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 10) (E)

11. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux

Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. The End (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Apprentice (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Dídi (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Maria (PR: 13) (E)

14. Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

15. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

We Live in Time

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Queer (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hit Man (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Fire Inside (PR: 10 (E)

11. The Collaboration (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Here (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Inside Out 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Actor (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Small Things like These

97th Academy Awards Predictions: June 9th Edition

My first Oscar predictions for the month of June shows that box office matters and the poor performance of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga causes it to fall out of my 25 BP hopefuls. Meanwhile the acclaimed Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig rises 12 sports to #10 in BP with His Three Daughters falling out. Fig’s maker Mohammad Rasoulof is in the directing quintet for the first time.

The aforementioned Daughters is not just out in BP. Natasha Lyonne drops in Actress in favor of Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez while Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) replaces Carrie Coon in Supporting Actress.

In Actor, it is Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) back in over Glen Powell (Hit Man). Yet the news isn’t all bad for that latter picture as I’m projecting the screenplay contests for the first time. Hit Man grabs a spot in Adapted Screenplay.

A reminder – the placement of performers is uncertain at press time. One example is Saldaña and Karla Sofia Gascón for Pérez. They could easily be switched and contend in one another’s races. In fact, I had it the other way around until now. There’s also Saoirse Ronan. I have her as a double nominee for The Outrun in lead and Blitz in supporting. She could be campaigned for Best Actress in both.

It will all shake out soon enough and here’s where I have nominations standing at the moment!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Anora (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Queer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The End (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 22) (+12)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (E)

13. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+9)

15. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Maria (PR: 20) (+4)

17. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-2)

18. A Real Pain (PR: 24) (+6)

19. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-1)

20. Dídi (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Bird (PR: 19) (-2)

22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

23. Here (PR: 21) (-2)

24. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-11)

25. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Not Ranked:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Civil War

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 15) (+10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (E)

14. Pablo Larrain, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters

Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 8) (E)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Zoe Saldaña, Emila Pérez – moved to supporting

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (+1)

10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)

15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead

4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 11) (+5)

7. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)

11. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez – moved to lead

Robin Wright, Here

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (E)

8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

14. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora

2. Blitz

3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig

4. The End

5. His Three Daughters

Other Possibilities:

6. Hard Truths

7. Emilia Pérez

8. A Real Pain

9. The Apprentice

10. Kinds of Kindness

11. All We Imagine as Light

12. Challengers

13. Maria

14. Dídi

15. We Live in Time

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave

2. Queer

3. Sing Sing

4. The Piano Lesson

5. Hit Man

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two

7. Nickel Boys

8. Nightbitch

9. Joker: Folie à Deux

10. The Fire Inside

11. Here

12. The Actor

13. The Collaboration

14. Gladiator II

15. Small Things like These

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 27, 2024

The Cannes Film Festival is complete and it has vaulted some pictures into contention while essentially eliminating others. Those on the others list include Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 from Kevin Costner, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.

On the other hand, Andrea Arnold’s Bird and Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice still have life, but certainly are not sure things. Same goes for Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos and Jacques Audiard’s Emila Pérez (I’m pretty high on its chances though).

The film that did itself the most good is Sean Baker’s Anora which took the Palme d’Or over the long weekend. It now climbs into my Picture, Director, and Actress (Mikey Madison) fields.

While the Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig by Mohammad Rasoulof is unlikely to be submitted for International Feature Film, there’s a chance it contends in BP and you’ll see it listed here for the first time as a possibility.

Let’s get into all of it and you can anticipate the next update in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

6. The End (PR: 6) (E)

7. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 18) (+5)

14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)

16. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Dìdi (PR: 14) (-3)

18. Hit Man (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Bird (PR: 13) (-6)

20. Maria (PR: 22) (+2)

21. Here (PR: 25) (+4)

22. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)

24. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Civil War (PR: 21) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-2)

14. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice

Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2

Andrea Arnold, Bird

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (E)

5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)

9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)

15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)

11. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robin Wright, Here (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (moved to Actress)

Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Leigh Gill, Blitz

Anora Takes the Cannes

The Cannes Film Festival of 2024 is complete and, as always, it made the Oscar picture a little clearer with potential nominees as well as films that won’t be on the radar screen based on their French buzz.

One picture that did itself the most favors is Sean Baker’s Anora. The latest dramedy from The Florida Project drew raves and was named the Palme d’Or recipient (the highest Cannes prize). Three of the past four Palme winners (Parasite, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall) ended up with a BP nod from the Academy.

The film’s leading lady Mikey Madison did not take Best Actress. That instead went to a quartet of performers (Karla Sofia Gascón, Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz, Zoe Saldaña) from Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez, which also entered the BP conversation. It is uncertain at this point whether Gascón or Saldaña, in particular, will be slotted in lead Actress or supporting come Oscar time. I currently have Gascón in the latter and Saldaña in the former and both have solid shots at inclusion.

In addition to Madison’s legit chances for an Actress recognition from the Academy, Demi Moore announced herself as a hopeful for her first nom in the heralded body horror tale The Substance from Coralie Fargeat. She is your Cannes honoree for Best Screenplay.

Anora‘s Sean Baker did not take Best Director (Cannes spreads the love). Miguel Gomes took that prize for the period drama Grand Tour. I wouldn’t pencil him in for a Director nom from the Academy. You have to go back to Pawel Pawlikowski and Cold War in 2018 for the previous Cannes winner who nabbed an Oscar mention. That is the only example in the 21st century.

Jesse Plemons is the Best Actor from Kinds of Kindness. Yorgos Lanthimos’s latest got its share of appreciative notices and I do believe it could contend for two or three Oscars. Plemons might be one of the benefactors.

As far as other acting possibilities, The Apprentice didn’t pick up any hardware. I do think Sebastian Stan (as Donald Trump in the 70s and 80s) and Jeremy Strong (as his mentor Roy Cohn) entered the Actor and Supporting Actor discussion. I also wouldn’t discount Nykiya Adams and Barry Keoghan in Actress and Supporting Actor for Andrea Arnold’s Bird.

Of course not all Cannes debuts lead to high praise. Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 1, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada all lessened their viability moving forward.

Keep an eye on the blog for new post Cannes projections in the six major races!

Oscar Predictions: Emilia Pérez

Emilia Pérez seems to be both a genre mashup and a Cannes highlight for many thus far. From Jacques Audiard, whose 2009 effort A Prophet took the Grand Prix in the French Riviera and scored a Foreign Language Feature nom at the Oscars, his latest mixes music, crime, and comedy. Karla Sofia Gascón is a drug cartel leader undergoing gender reassignment surgery. Zoe Saldaña is the lawyer providing assistance with Selena Gomez as Gascón’s spouse. Édgar Ramirez also costars.

Audiard is a familiar presence at Cannes. In addition to his aforementioned work from 15 years ago, 2015’s Dheepan won the Palme d’Or. The screening for Emilia has provided some of the fest’s most enthusiastic reaction in its first few days. Called audacious and crowd-pleasing, the RT score is 80% (based on a handful of write-ups).

If Mexico submits this as their choice for International Feature Film (and I suspect they will), the chances to make that final five is high. It could nab more noms than that. Some of it will come down to category placement and that seems uncertain at the moment.

Early word-of-mouth would suggest that Saldaña might be campaigned for in lead Actress with Gascón in supporting. My previous prediction posts had that dynamic switched. This will be altered when I update projections later today. I strongly suspect Gascón will be in my estimated quintet with Saldaña as a possibility in Actress (I’m toying with putting her in my five but she might be just on the outside looking in).

I also believe this could mark Audiard’s first crossover into Best Picture and that could include a nod for the filmmaker himself. While other Cannes titles have hurt their possibilities upon their screenings, it seems like Pérez could be up on the upswing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…