Zendaya hopes to serve up healthy box office numbers as her sports drama Challengers debuts this weekend. We also have the faith-based drama Unsung Hero out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
With impressive reviews and Zendaya hot off Dune: Part Two, Challengers should face no challenge in topping the charts. $20M+ is within the realm of possibility, but so is low teens. I’m in the middle of that range.
The numbers for slots 2-6 should be close. Unsung Hero is of a genre that can often surprise. However, my sub $6M projection puts it in fourth.
A mid 40s drop for Civil War would drop it to second after two weeks in first. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire could hold in third with Abigail falling to fifth in its sophomore frame after a lackluster start (more on that below). That leaves The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare rounding out the top six after its mediocre premiere.
Here’s how I have the top 6 shaking out:
1. Challengers
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
2. Civil War
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
3. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $6 million
4. Unsung Hero
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
5. Abigail
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
6. The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (April 19-21)
Civil War managed to stay at #1 in its second weekend despite a 56% plummet. Alex Garland’s dystopian action flick made $11.1 million, close to my $11.8 million prediction. The two-week gross is $44 million.
While the rollout didn’t totally suck, Abigail‘s #2 posting lacked bite. The vampire story scored solid reviews, but started on the lowest end of its anticipated range with $10.2 million. I gave it a bit more credit with a $13.1 million projection.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire was third with $9.5 million, just ahead of my $8.7 million call. The monster mashup has amassed $171 million after four weeks.
Guy Ritchie’s The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare took in a ho-hum $8.9 million for fourth position. It did manage to outdo my $7.6 million forecast.
Crunchyroll’s latest anime offering Spy x Family Code: White rounded out the top five with an unremarkable $4.8 million. That’s below the studio’s latest domestic outputs and well under my $9.8 million take.
A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.
Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.
Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.
You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.
With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Conclave
4. Sing Sing
5. The End
6. Queer
7. The Fire Inside
8. Bird
9. Kinds of Kindness
10. Dídi
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux
12. The Apprentice
13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
15. Civil War
16. Maria
17. Megalopolis
18. The Piano Lesson
19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2
20. A Real Pain
21. Here
22. The Nickel Boys
23. Hard Truths
24. Wicked
25. Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
3. Edward Berger, Conclave
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End
5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
9. Andrea Arnold, Bird
10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
12. Sean Wang, Dídi
13. Alex Garland, Civil War
14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis
15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside
4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux
5. Tilda Swinton, The End
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
13. Zendaya, Challengers
14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
3. Barry Keoghan, Bird
4. Daniel Craig, Queer
5. André Holland, The Actor
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux
7. George MacKay, The End
8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man
10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two
12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis
13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration
15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Joan Chen, Dídi
2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz
4. Lesley Manville, Queer
5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice
8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys
9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle
14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters
15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
5. Leigh Gill, Blitz
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
8. Drew Starkey, Queer
9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man
11. John Lithgow, Conclave
12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis
13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing
14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two
15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez
As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!
Luca Guadagnino’s sports love triangle Challengers hopes to serve up winning box office numbers when it opens April 26th. Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist headline the critically hailed pic that was originally slated for last fall until the actors strike pushed it to spring.
Zendaya is hot off Dune: Part Two and buzz for this follow-up is impressive. The RT score is a sizzling 96%. It will need to make its money off star power as romantic dramas can be a tough sell.
I suspect the worst case scenario is a debut in the low double digits while the rosiest result could be a premiere in the low 20s. My forecast puts it in the mid to high teens.
Challengers opening weekend prediction: $16.2 million
Luca Guadagnino’s love triangle/sports drama Challengers was expected to open the Venice Film Festival last September and have a plum awards-friendly fall release date for 2023. The actors strike changed that dynamic and now it’s slated for April 26th. Could it still make a racket at the Oscars and beyond?
It might get some love in some categories. Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist make up the aforementioned triangle. Reviews are strong with 96% on RT and critics praising their work. If any of the trio enter the mix, Zendaya seems to have the best shot. She’s said to serve up a career best performance according to several critics. The Dune: Part Two star was in the mix for 2021’s Malcolm & Marie, but ultimately didn’t make the cut. Her chances are fair though obviously lots of competition will come in the next several months.
A Best Picture nom may be a stretch. I wouldn’t totally discount it. However, Guadagnino has the historical drama Queer later in the year and it seems poised for a campaign in multiple categories. As for Challengers, Original Screenplay is a possibility. The race where do I expect a play is the Original Score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross as it’s being pointed out as a highlight frequently. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We are about a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the supporting derbies and Best Actor and they can be perused here:
We now move to Actress. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Emma Stone for Poor Things. I will note that her main competitor – Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon – was listed at that time as a Supporting Actress contender and not lead. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Annette Bening in Nyad and Carey Mulligan for Maestro. I did not identify Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) at that early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned for in supporting actress (the vice versa of Gladstone).
Speaking of Gladstone, she could make a return appearance with Fancy Dance. So could Ms. Stone though I do wonder if the anthology format of Kinds of Kindness slots her here or in lead. Other possibilities include the return of Angelina Jolie to the awards conversation as opera legend Maria Callas in Maria and Lady Gaga as Joker’s muse Harley Quinn in Joker: Folie à Deux.
Here’s the first snapshot:
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:
Dune: Part Two looks to storm the box office when it debuts on March 1st with what should easily be the largest debut so far in 2024. Denis Villeneuve returns as director with Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in action. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.
The follow-up to the 2021 original could double its opening. As you may recall, Dune experienced a COVID delay from fall 2020 to fall 2021. The pandemic still limited its potential as it simultaneously premiered on Max. That resulted in a $41 million start which was quite impressive for that period of time. It wrapped up its run at $110 million domestically.
At its low end, Part Two is expected to take in $60 million out of the gate. Reviews for the continuation of Frank Herbert’s source material top part one and it’s currently at 98% on RT with plenty of Oscar nominations expected months down the road. The high end of its range is $80 million or even $90 million.
I am forecasting this could get to the low to mid 80s for the aforementioned double up of its predecessor with a little room to spare.
Dune: Part Two opening weekend prediction: $83.6 million
In 2021, Denis Villeneuve’s vision of Dune generated 10 Oscar nods and six victories. The eagerly awaited Dune: Part Two sweeps into theaters on March 1 (this time with no simultaneous release date on Max). It is expected to outdo its predecessor in terms of box office numbers (my financial estimate is hitting the blog shortly). Part Two may also match or exceed the original’s nomination count.
The review embargo lifted today and the current RT score is a dazzling 97%. That’s up over the 83% that Dune had. Many critics claim it improves upon part one in every way. Villeneuve returns to direct. Among the sprawling cast, we have Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in the mix. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.
At the 94th Academy Awards, Dune‘s took gold in tech races Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Had Part Two not been pushed from 2023 to 2024, it would likely be in serious competition with Oppenheimer and others in those competitions. It would have Visual Effects locked up. Dune ’21 also had nominations for Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling.
Let’s be clear. Based on the reaction out today, Part Two should vie for inclusion in all those categories… and more. You may recall that Villeneuve was notably snubbed in Director three years back. The Academy might make up for that this time around.
Then there’s the actors and that’s trickier. Ferguson got a little ink as a possibility for Supporting Actress for Dune. For the sequel, expect the same for Chalamet and especially Butler as the villainous Feyd-Rautha. It is also possible the cast will be ignored. For the Lord of the Rings trilogy, only Ian McKellen ever managed a nomination for the initial chapter.
Bottom line: Part Two looks like 2024’s first surefire contender in BP and much more (it is hard to imagine it losing derbies like Cinematography and Visual Effects). The 96th ceremony hasn’t aired yet, but the 97th seems to have truly started with this embargo lapsing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It is the weekend of “Barbenheimer” as Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer are posting fantastic results at the box office. With their review embargoes lifted, the always to be inextricably linked pics have established themselves as Oscar players.
When I did my previous predictions two weeks ago, one of the questions centered on which performers could be singled out for recognition. Obviously we knew about Cillian Murphy and Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling’s supporting turn, but what else? The answer it seems is Robert Downey Jr. and Emily Blunt for Oppenheimer and maybe America Ferrera for Barbie. Matt Damon is still worth mentioning for Oppenheimer, but Downey Jr. clearly has the most significant buzz.
And… surprise! This is the first write-up where I am including all races covering feature-length motion pictures. I do so at a precarious time. While “Barbenheimer” is viable in many competitions, the release calendar for the remainder of 2023 is unpredictable.
That is, of course, due to the SAG-AFTRA strike and a fear that it could drag on for weeks or months. On Friday, Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers gave up its prime spot opening the Venice Film Festival and moved from September to April 2024. If you believe it’ll be the last movie to do so, think again. There’s already rumors that Dune: Part Two and/or The Color Purple (two potential heavy hitters) could move to ’24. I am keeping all currently scheduled titles in the mix until I hear different. Just know that some of the projects listed below may not be here for long.
Sometimes a trailer can either boost your hopes for a film’s awards potential or dilute it. I could be wrong, but Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers is an example of the latter when its first look was revealed this week. Soon enough we’ll see if my first impression was on the money.
For these initial projections covering all races, I’ll keep it at 25 possibilities for BP and 15 for the other top of the line derbies (the four acting ones and two screenplay contests). For all others, I will list my top 10.
With all that said, let’s get into it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Air (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Maestro (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Barbie (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Napoleon (PR: 16) (+1)
16. May December (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Rustin (PR: 21) (+2)
20. The Piano Lesson (PR: 19) (-1)
21. The Killer (PR: 25) (+4)
22. Ferrari (PR: 24) (+2)
23. BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (-1)
25. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-4)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, Air
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Zendaya, Challengers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Andre Holland, The Actor
Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-3)
12. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer
Tilda Swinton, The Killer
Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Jesse Plemons, Killers. of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Richard E. Grant, Saltburn
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Air (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rustin (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Drive Away Dolls (PR: 13) (+2)
12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Fair Play (PR: 11) (-3)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barbie (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)
9. BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+5)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Killer (PR: 15) (+4)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest
2. Anatomy of a Fall
3. Monster
4. About Dry Grasses
5. The Pot-au-Feu
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron
7. Perfect Days
8. The Delinquents
9. Fallen Leaves
10. La Chimera
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Elemental
4. Wish
5. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Other Possibilities:
6. Nimona
7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
8. Robot Dreams
9. The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
3. The Eternal Memory
4. The Mother of All Lies
5. Wild Life
Other Possibilities:
6. 20 Days in Mariupol
7. Every Body
8. Kokomo City
9. Black Ice
10. It Ain’t Over
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Napoleon
5. The Color Purple
Other Possibilities:
6. The Killer
7. Poor Things
8. The Zone of Interest
9. Ferrari
10. Asteroid City
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie
2. Dune: Part Two
3. The Color Purple
4. Poor Things
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon
7. Chevalier
8. Oppenheimer
9. Wonka
10. Asteroid City
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Past Lives
5. Air
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple
7. Saltburn
8. Maestro
9. The Killer
10. Napoleon
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Poor Things
3. Maestro
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
5. Barbie
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon
7. Golda
8. Beau is Afraid
9. The Color Purple
10. Priscilla
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Elemental
5. Past Lives
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
8. Napoleon
9. The Zone of Interest
10. The Killer
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from “The Color Purple”
2. “The Wish” from Wish
3. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
4. “Just Ken” from Barbie
5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady
7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie
9. “Quiet Eyes” From Past Lives
10. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Oppenheimer
4. Poor Things
5. Napoleon
Other Possibilities:
6. Barbie
7. Asteroid City
8. The Zone of Interest
9. The Color Purple
10. Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Napoleon
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Spider-Man: Acrossthe Spider-Verse
Other Possibilities:
6. Ferrari
7. The Color Purple
8. Maestro
9. The Zone of Interest
10. The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Oppenheimer
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. The Creator
5. Wonka
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon
7. Killers of the Flower Moon
8. Poor Things
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
10. Spaceman
And that, ladies and gents, gives us the following number of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
The Color Purple
7 Nominations
Past Lives
6 Nominations
Barbie
5 Nominations
Poor Things
4 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall
3 Nominations
Maestro, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, The Boy and the Heron, Beyond Utopia, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Long Day’s Journey Into Night, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, The Pot-au-Feu, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wild Life, Wonka
The first July predictions for the 96th Academy Awards shall be known as the pre Barbie and Oppenheimer edition. They are eagerly awaited efforts from Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan, respectively, that are hoping to become giant blockbusters and awards players. July 21st marks the release date for both. When my next forecast arrives in a couple of weeks, reviews and buzz and financial numbers for the pair will be available.
Since June 25th (my previous update), there’s not been too much news. We have some new trailers including Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir as the iconic reggae singer. Interestingly all the promotional materials are advertising a January 12th premiere. I’m still assuming it will get a December limited release to qualify for contention. It is something worth keeping an eye on. I will say that I found the trailer to be somewhat lackluster. With the release date confusion, I’ve taken it out of my top 25 in BP while keeping Ben-Adir and Lashana Lynch in their acting derbies.
Frequent readers will know that releases dates are always shifting. I’m putting The Piano Lesson back in the mix even though it might not be out until 2024. You’ll see it emerge back into several competitions below.
Festivals are beginning to tease their lineups. Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers will open Venice in September while Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins is tapped for Toronto. Expect plenty more announcement in the coming days and weeks.
In Best Actor, I’ve elevated Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) to #1 over Colman Domingo. That puts Killers atop the charts in Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. We’ll see how long its dominance lasts as other heavy hitters screen over the next few months.
As we await the Barbie and Oppenheimer reactions, here’s my speculation as to where everything stands for the eight top categories.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Air (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)
12. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-2)
15. May December (PR: 15) (E)
16. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+2)
17. Challengers (PR: 17) (E)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Rustin (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Ferrari (PR: 24) (E)
25. The Killer (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
How Do You Live?
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
David Fincher, The Killer
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)
7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 15) (+3)
13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Halle Bailey, The Color Purple
Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon
Claire Foy, Strangers
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mike Faist, Challengers
Josh O’Connor, Challengers
Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saltburn (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Air (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie (moved to Adapted)
Bob Marley: One Love
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-1)
For my last forecast for the month of June, not a lot has changed in my predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. Viola Davis (Air) is back in Supporting Actress over Julianne Moore (May December). In the screenplay contests, I’ve elevated Anatomy of a Fall over May December in the original derby. For Adapted Screenplay, Oppenheimer jumps into the top five over Poor Things. It is worth noting that while I don’t have animated box office behemoth Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse in my BP ten, it does jump seven positions to number 12.
When I do my initial July projections in a couple of weeks, we might have some buzz for potential heavy hitters Oppenheimer and Barbie as they each ready their debuts on July 21st.
We have seen our first peeks at fall contenders such as Challengers, Priscilla, Drive-Away Dolls, and Dumb Money over the past few days via their trailers. Truth be told, this is a slow time for awards prognosticating. This will change before we know it with festival season around the corner.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Poor Things (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)
12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 19) (+7)
13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Barbie (PR: 15) (+1)
15. May December (PR: 12) (-3)
16. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Challengers (PR: 13) (-4)
18. Napoleon (PR: 15) (-3)
19. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 23) (+4)
20. Rustin (PR: 22) (+2)
21. The Killer (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+2)
23. The Book of Clarence (PR: 18) (-5)
24. Ferrari (PR: 25) (+1)
25. How Do You Live? (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Flint Strong (moved to 2024)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E()
Other Possibilities:
6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)
15. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Todd Haynes, May December
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12 )(E)
13. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (E)
11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mike Faist, Challengers (moved to Supporting Actor)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (E)
14. Josh O’Connor, Challengers (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong
Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Saltburn (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. May December (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)
10. Challengers (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 2) (+1)
12. Rustin (PR: 11) (-1)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (E)
15. Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Monster
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (+2)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
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