I have talked extensively on the blog about how live-action remakes of Disney pics have received a decent amount of nominations. Titles such as Alice in Wonderland, Cinderella, The Jungle Book, Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, and Cruella lend themselves to races like Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Visual Effects. Even this year’s critical and box office misfire Snow White could land a mention or two.
So where does Lilo & Stitch fit into the equation? Out this weekend, it live-action updates the 2002 original which scored a Best Animated Feature nod. Dean Fleischer Camp directs a cast including Maia Keoloha, Chris Sanders, Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Zach Galifianakis, Billy Magnussen, Courtney B. Vance, Hannah Waddingham, Tia Carrere, Amy Hill, and Jason Scott Lee.
Critical reaction is fair with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 55 Metacritic. This certainly won’t be the first Mouse House feature in this sub genre to land top-of-the-line attention. It also doesn’t correlate well to the tech races mentioned above. Chances are this will receive one less nomination than its source material. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.
23 summers ago, Disney’s animated Lilo & Stitch narrowly opened in second to Minority Report with Tom Cruise. This Memorial Day weekend, the Mouse House’s live-action (and also animated) remake will attempt to outpace Cruise’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. That’s a mission it should achieve with room to spare.
Dean Fleischer Camp, maker of the acclaimed Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, is behind the camera. Chris Sanders, who wrote and directed the 2002 original, still provides the voice of Stitch with Maia Keoloha as Lilo. The supporting cast includes Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Billy Magnussen, Hannah Waddingham, Courtney B. Vance, Zach Galifianakis, Tia Carrere, Amy Hill, and Jason Scott Lee.
Expectations are high for a project that once was anticipated to be a Disney+ streaming premiere. Tracking suggests a nine digit performance over the holiday frame. The studio is no stranger to Memorial Day outputs and that includes these remakes. In 2019, Aladdin took in $91 million from Friday to Sunday and $116 million when factoring in Monday. Two years ago, The Little Mermaid made $95 million for the three-day and $118 million over four.
Lilo took in $273 million worldwide for its run nearly a quarter century ago and spawned direct-to-video sequels. A nostalgia factor and a dearth of competition for family audiences (as A Minecraft Movie winds down) could mean an even stronger opening than the aforementioned titles. I’ll say it manages to get close to $120 million from Friday to Sunday and over $140 million adding Monday. That would give it the second all-time Memorial weekend behind Top Gun: Maverick (more Cruise comparisons!) and just ahead of Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men’s Chest.
Lilo & Stitch opening weekend prediction: $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $196.6 million (Friday to Monday)
For my Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning prediction, click here:
Jared and Jerusha Hess, the married couple behind irreverent comedies Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre, bring their sensibilities to the animated comedic musical Thelma the Unicorn. Based on a series of books by Aaron Blabey, the pic is out on Netflix this weekend. Voiceover work comes from Brittany Howard, Will Forte, Jemaine Clement, Edi Patterson, Fred Armisen, Zach Galifianakis, Napoleon himself Jon Heder, and Shondrella Avery.
Critical reaction is mostly complimentary though not lavish in acclaim. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 70%. I’m guessing Netflix won’t make this a priority in their Best Animated Feature campaign. Perhaps it can make the final five if the field is especially weak though I wouldn’t bank on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Director Susanna Fogel and star Emilia Jones of CODA fame teamed up last year at Sundance with the thriller Cat Person. Any Oscar buzz petered out upon its unveiling with an eventual 46% RT rating and very limited theatrical release. They are back at Sundance ’24 with Winner, a black comedy costarring Kathryn Newton, Connie Britton, Zach Galifianakis, and Danny Ramirez.
Winner refers to Reality Winner, Jones’s real-life character who became known for leaking intelligence about Russian meddling in the 2016 Presidential election. Like Cat, the premiere of this title came and went without much fanfare. The RT score is 60% and there’s no indication that this will be in the awards mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A prominent cinematic subgenre in 2023 has been origin stories for various products that captured our attention. Think BlackBerry and Tetris and Flamin’ Hot. You can add The Beanie Bubble to the list. Hitting theaters in limited capacity on Friday before its Apple streaming debut on July 28th, the comedy-drama focuses on the craze that was Beanie Babies. The cast is led by Zach Galifianakis, Elizabeth Banks, Succession‘s Sarah Snook, and Geraldine Viswanathan.
Based on a 2015 novel, the behind the camera talent is a notable duo. Co-director and writer Kristin Gore is the daughter of former Vice President Al Gore. Her fellow filmmaker and real life husband is Damian Kulash, lead singer of the band OK Go.
When it comes to the aforementioned features, the 82% Rotten Tomatoes score matches Tetris, is ahead of Hot‘s 68%, and behind the impressive 98% that BlackBerry rang up. The reviews do not indicate that Bubble will be a factor in the awards mix down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Top Gun: Maverick isn’t the only Memorial Day weekend release currently holding at an impressive 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. The other is The Bob’s Burgers Movie, the cinematic version of the long running animated series. The Emmy winning series hopes that the big screen rendering serves up meaty box office numbers over the holiday.
Will Oscar voters take notice? Even with the impressive score, most reviews indicate it’s a generally pleasing Burgers episode with a longer runtime. If 2007’s The Simpsons Movie (which was a massive hit) couldn’t manage a Best Animated Feature nod, I doubt this will. However, if future animated titles for 2022 don’t meet expectations, that narrative could shift. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
I will readily admit that I’m no expert when it comes to this prediction as I’ve never seen an episode of Bob’s Burgers. The cinematic adaptation is slated to debut over Memorial Day weekend. Based on the Fox series that began in 2011 and recently completed season #12, Bernard Derriman directs. Voice actors participating from the show include H. Jon Benjamin, Dan Mintz, Eugene Mirman, Larry Murphy, Kristen Schaal, John Roberts, Zach Galifianakis, and Kevin Kline. Familiar faces joining the fun are Aziz Ansari, Gary Cole, Jenny Slate, and Stephanie Beatriz.
Burger’s was originally ordered up for summer of 2020 before its COVID delays. The TV program certainly has its dedicated admirers, but I’m not convinced it will translate to a robust holiday weekend. Plenty of fans could simply wait until it’s available to stream. In other words, this might make about a tenth of what The Simpsons Movie made ($74 million) for its beginning.
I’ll also confess that I could be underestimating this based on my unfamiliarity with the source material. A four-day take near $20 million would be pleasing for the studio considering the reported $60-70 million price tag. I’m not willing to go that high.
The Bob’s Burgers Movie opening weekend prediction: $9.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $11.6 million (Friday to Monday)
After premiering to solid reviews at the London Film Festival last week, the sci-fi animated comedy Ron’s Gone Wrong hits multiplexes on October 22. From directors Jean-Philippe Vine and Sarah Smith, the voice cast includes Zach Galifianakis, Jack Dylan Grazer, Olivia Colman, Ed Helms, Justice Smith, and Rob Delaney.
Wrong is the first effort from Locksmith Animation, a British outlet. Distributed by 20th Century Studios (a subsidiary of Disney), future Locksmith titles will be handled by Warner Bros. This is a rare wide release animated work not based on existing IP that isn’t coming specifically from the Mouse Factory or Illumination or DreamWorks.
Reviews are decent with an 84% Rotten Tomatoes score. Yet I really question whether family audiences are even aware of its existence. There’s not much competition for kiddos (The Addams Family 2 will be in its fourth weekend). I still am skeptical that this reaches double digits for the start.
Ron’s Gone Wrong opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million
The computer animated sci-fi comedy Ron’s Gone Wrong has debuted at the London Film Festival prior to its UK bow next weekend and US premiere on October 22nd. The film marks the first effort from Locksmith Studios which is owned by 20th Century Studios. Jean-Philippe Vine and Sarah Smith co-direct and the voice cast includes Zach Galifianakis, Jack Dylan Grazer, Olivia Colman, Ed Helms, Justice Smith, Justice Smith, and Rob Delaney.
Buzz coming from London is mostly solid though measured in its praise. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 80%. I’m not confident this will serve as a major contender in Best Animated Feature at the Oscars. It has no chance of winning. In my estimation, there are arguably three slots filled (Flee, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines). Disney’s forthcoming Encanto certainly has the resume to contend. Assuming it makes the cut, that leaves one spot that could be filled by Belle, Vivo, or something else. I don’t foresee Ron’s having quite the right ingredients to fill it.
My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
We have arrived at part III of my recaps of the summer seasons that came 30, 20, and 10 years ago. That means 2011 is upon us. If you missed my sizzling throwbacks to 1991 and 2001, you can find them here:
As is tradition, I will recount the top 10 hits as well as other notable features and some flops in a season where moviegoers bid a fond farewell to their iconic wizard:
Let’s get to it, yes?
10. Bridesmaids
Domestic Gross: $169 million
Kristin Wiig made one of the most successful jumps from SNL to movie stardom in this critically hailed pic that also earned Melissa McCarthy her silver screen breakout and even an Oscar nomination. It might not be the highest grossing comedy on here, but it’s definitely still the most talked about.
9. The Help
Domestic Gross: $169 million
Based on Kathryn Stockett’s bestseller, the 1960s set period piece from Tate Taylor brought the book’s readers and many others to the multiplex. Four Oscar nods followed including Best Picture and a Supporting Actress victory for Octavia Spencer.
8. Captain America: The First Avenger
Domestic Gross: $176 million
The Marvel Cinematic Universe’s first big branch out occurred during this summer where we would get our first glimpse at this OG avenger in the form of Chris Evans and another one who sits at the throne of spot #6. The sequels actually improved on what we see here, but the Captain gets rolling with this.
7. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Domestic Gross: $176 million
Rupert Wyatt’s reboot of the franchise is deservedly better regarded than Tim Burton’s re-imagining that transpired in 2001. Debuting the fantastic motion capture work of Andy Serkis, this would spawn two follow-ups that also pleased audiences and critics and did considerable monkey business.
6. Thor
Domestic Gross: $181 million
Chris Hemsworth’s Asgardian heartthrob hammered into the public consciousness alongside Natalie Portman and Anthony Hopkins and managed $5 million more box office bucks than the Captain. The third sequel is currently in production.
5. Cars 2
Domestic Gross: $191 million
Despite grossing nearly $200 million, this Pixar sequel is not one of the studio’s most fondly remembered vehicles with just a 40% Rotten Tomatoes rating. A third Cars did zoom into theaters six years later.
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Domestic Gross: $241 million
With a reported budget of $379 million, Johnny Depp’s fourth headlining of the franchise still sports the largest price tag of all time. The actor’s final participation in the series would come in 2017 with Disney still looking to reboot it without their signature player.
3. The Hangover Part II
Domestic Gross: $254 million
Crowds were still clamoring for the drunken exploits of Bradley Copper, Ed Helms, and Zach Galifianakis. Critics weren’t near as kind to part II, but audiences didn’t begin to tire of the hijinks until part III two years later.
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Domestic Gross: $352 million
Michael Bay’s third saga of the Autobots and Decepticons marks Shia LaBeouf’s last appearance in the franchise and includes drop-ins from acting heavyweights John Malkovich and Frances McDormand. Mark Wahlberg would take over starring duties three years later.
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Domestic Gross: $381 million
After nearly a decade of enchanting kids and their parents alike, the franchise stemming from J.K. Rowling’s beloved novels received a fittingly massive send-off with this billion dollar plus worldwide earner.
Now for other noteworthy titles from the summer:
X-Men: First Class
Domestic Gross: $146 million
Bryan Singer’s handed over directorial reigns to Matthew Vaughn for this reinvigorating reboot of the series that introduced the younger versions of Charles Xavier, Magneto, and Mystique in the bodies of James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, and Jennifer Lawrence. Numerous sequels of varying quality followed.
The Smurfs
Domestic Gross: $142 million
Sony Pictures wasn’t blue about the financial returns for this half live-action/half animated adaptation of the popular comics and animated series. A sequel came in 2013.
Super 8
Domestic Gross: $127 million
In between Star Trek pics and before rebooting Star Wars, J.J. Abrams helmed this sci-fi original which paid tribute to the Spielberg efforts of the 1980s. Critics gave it their stamp of approval and it’s notable for one heckuva train crash sequence.
Horrible Bosses
Domestic Gross: $117 million
This raunchy comedy about workers exacting revenge on their wretched superiors showed us a whole different side to Jennifer Aniston and spawned a 2014 sequel.
Crazy, Stupid, Love
Domestic Gross: $84 million
Before their collaboration on La La Land earned lots of Oscar nods five years later, Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling teamed up for this rom com with Steve Carell and Julianne Moore that exceeded expectations with audiences and many critics.
Midnight in Paris
Domestic Gross: $56 million
It was a different time 10 years ago for Woody Allen, who scored his last big hit with this fantastical comedy starring Owen Wilson. Woody would win the Oscar for Original Screenplay and it landed three additional nominations including Picture and Director.
The Tree of Life
Domestic Gross: $13 million
Terrence Malick’s epic philosophical drama won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival and was nominated for Best Picture, Director, and Cinematography at the Academy Awards. Not your typical summer fare, but it certainly had reviews on its side.
And now for some titles that didn’t meet expectations commercially, critically, or both:
Green Lantern
Domestic Gross: $116 million
Five years before he entered the comic book flick pantheon with Deadpool, Ryan Reynolds didn’t have as much luck with this critically drubbed flop. Even the star himself has taken to calling it a waste of time for viewers.
Cowboys & Aliens
Domestic Gross: $100 million
Coming off the huge Iron Man pics, Jon Favreau cast James Bond (Daniel Craig) and Indiana Jones (Harrison Ford) in this space western that didn’t impress crowds or critics and earned considerably less than its budget domestically.
Mr. Popper’s Penguins
Domestic Gross: $68 million
Audiences were mostly cool to Jim Carrey’s treatment of the popular late 30s children’s book though it did manage to top its $55 million budget. It probably would have made far more during the star’s box office heyday.
Spy Kids 4-D: All the Time in the World
Domestic Gross: $38 million
A decade after Robert Rodriguez kicked the kiddie franchise off to great results, part 4 marked a low mark for the series.
Larry Crowne
Domestic Gross: $35 million
The star power of Tom Hanks (who also directed) and Julia Roberts couldn’t elevate this rom com from a subpar showing (critics weren’t kind either). This is largely a forgotten entity on both actor’s filmographies.
Conan the Barbarian
Domestic Gross: $21 million
Before becoming known to the masses as Aquaman, Jason Momoa couldn’t fill the shoes of Arnold Schwarzenegger in this bomb that couldn’t swim close to its $90 million budget.
And that does it, folks! I’ll have recaps of the summers of 1992, 2002, and 2012 up for your enjoyment next season!
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