Tag: Zach Cregger

September 5-7 Box Office Predictions

One Warner Bros horror flick looks to transfer the #1 spot to another as The Conjuring: Last Rites haunts multiplexes this weekend. We also have Disney releasing their filmed version of the Broadway play Hamilton. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The Conjuring: Last Rites Box Office Prediction
Hamilton Box Office Prediction

My mid 50s projection for Last Rites gives it the best opening of the franchise, just outpacing 2018’s The Nun and toppling the $40 million and change starts that the first two proper Conjuring flicks scared up. As mentioned, it will easily replace the WB’s Weapons from its Labor Day weekend perch atop the charts.

Hamilton is a tricky one. It could easily outdo my high single digits forecast, but it’s hard to ignore that audiences have been able to view it on Disney+ for five years. No matter what, it should manage a runner-up debut.

Weapons should place third while 4-5 could be awfully close between Caught Stealing and Freakier Friday.

Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Predicted Gross: $58.2 million

2. Hamilton

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

3. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

4. Caught Stealing

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

Box Office Results (August 29-September 1)

In a rather quiet Labor Day frame, Weapons returned to #1 with KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event having completed its two-day engagement from the previous frame. Zach Cregger’s missing persons scare fest took in $13 million, falling short of my $15.9 million call over the four-day holiday. The four-week total is $135 million.

Jaws 50th Anniversary swam past my expectations with $11.3 million for second, more than doubling my $5.6 million prediction. Crowds clearly were down for revisiting the shark tale.

Austin Butler crime thriller Caught Stealing nabbed a so-so $9.5 million in third and that was more than my $6.3 million projection.

Freakier Friday was fourth with $8.7 million, in range with my $9.4 million estimate for a four-week tally of $82 million.

Comedic remake The Roses with Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman settled for fifth with $7.7 million, in line with my $7.9 million guesstimate.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps was sixth with $6.5 million (I said $6.1 million) for $266 million after six weeks.

Finally, The Toxic Avenger Unrated with Peter Dinklage didn’t crack the top 10 at $2.1 million. I went with $1.8 million.

And that does it now, folks! Until next time…

August 29-September 1 Box Office Predictions

Three newcomers and one summer classic celebrating a half century in existence will work hard to earn box office dollars this Labor Day weekend. We have comedy remake The Roses with Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman, Darren Aronofsky’s crime thriller Caught Stealing starring Austin Butler and Zoë Kravitz, Peter Dinklage in the splatter reboot The Toxic Avenger Unrated, and the 50th anniversary reissue of Steven Spielberg’s Jaws out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:

The Roses Box Office Prediction
Caught Stealing Box Office Prediction
Jaws 50th Anniversary Box Office Prediction
The Toxic Avenger Unrated Box Office Prediction

We’ll discuss Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event in the results section below. We know it won’t be #1 since the streamer put it out only as a two-day multiplex event on Saturday and Sunday this past weekend.

That means Weapons should return to the top spot as I don’t see the fresh foursome challenging it. The acclaimed horror flick should remain in the teens as holdovers usually have meager declines or even slight increases over the Friday to Monday of Labor Day weekend compared to the previous weekend.

The Roses could manage the best start of the new titles though I have it slightly behind the fourth weekend of Freakier Friday.

Caught Stealing might be stuck in fourth with The Fantastic Four: First Steps just behind in fifth and the Jaws reissue in sixth.

As for Toxic, my $1.8 million guesstimate puts it far down the charts.

The only placement I’m confident in is Weapons in 1st while the others jockey for position. Keep in mind that these estimates are made for the four-day holiday and here’s how I envision the top six:

1. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million

2. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

3. The Roses

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

4. Caught Stealing

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

6. Jaws 50th Anniversary

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (August 22-24)

After two months plus on the streaming service, Netflix made an unconventional move by releasing a sing-along version of their massive hit KPop Demon Hunters on Saturday and Sunday. They were conventional in not officially reporting its numbers. However, estimates put it at $19.2 million and that’s ahead of my $13.8 million call and easily strong enough for 1st place. With an over $11k plus per screen average, kids had no trouble getting their folks to bring them out. The specialized engagement is only for the aforementioned two days.

Weapons was second with $15.4 million, just under my $16.1 million projection. Zach Cregger’s disappearance tale has amassed $115 million in three weeks.

Freakier Friday was third with $8.8 million, on pace with my $8.7 million forecast. The Disney sequel has taken in $70 million after three weeks.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps, in week five, was fourth with $6 million (I said $5.8 million) for $257 million thus far.

The Bad Guys 2 rounded out the top five with $5.1 million, in line with my $5.2 million call for $66 million in four weeks.

Action sequel Nobody 2 tumbled 60% in its sophomore outing with $3.7 million. I was a bit more generous at $4.8 million. The tally is a mere $16 million.

Finally, Ethan Coen’s noirish comedy Honey Don’t! opened in 8th with $3 million. That’s nothing to brag about, but it did outshine my $1.8 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 22-24 Box Office Predictions

We’re in the dog days of August as Weapons seeks to three-peat at #1 this weekend though a fascinating challenger could emerge depending on Netflix’s reporting. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event looks to capitalize on its massively successful animated streaming numbers with a Saturday and Sunday engagement of theatrical screenings. We also have Ethan Coen’s dark comedy Honey Don’t! out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event Box Office Prediction
Honey Don’t! Box Office Prediction

KPop Demon Hunters is already the highest viewed Netflix animated picture in history. The streamer decided to give it the silver screen sing-along treatment this Saturday and Sunday only. Here’s the catch: Netflix usually doesn’t report their numbers. I think they could make an exception due to the unprecedented nature of this release. If they do, I believe low teens is doable and maybe even more. If it manages to post a 1st or 2nd place debut, I would think Netflix would want the bragging rights. We shall see what they decide.

As for Don’t!, my lowly $1.8 million projection won’t get it in the top five regardless of whether KPop unveils its grosses. After receiving middling reviews from Cannes and being put out on a meager 1200 screens, look for this to fade rapidly.

That leaves holdovers and Weapons may see a drop in the mid 30s to repeat at #1. In fact, the top five should remain the same quintet if KPop isn’t in the mix. However, I suspect Nobody 2 might have the largest percentage drop and that could result in a fall from third to fifth (or fourth to sixth). That would allow The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 to each rise a spot with Freakier Friday either remaining runner-up or being third.

Here’s my top 6 take with the caveat that KPop‘s placement might not occur:

1. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

**2. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

3. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

5. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

6. Nobody

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

Box Office Results (August 15-17)

Weapons easily pummeled the competition yet again in its sophomore frame with $24.4 million, right in line with my $24.9 million call. Zach Cregger’s critically hailed horror thriller is up to $88 million after ten days.

Freakier Friday was second in weekend #2 with $14.2 million, slightly exceeding my forecast of $13 million. The Disney sequel has made $54 million.

Action sequel Nobody 2 with Bob Odenkirk opened at the lower end of expectations with $9.2 million, failing to catch my $11.3 million projection. While it managed to outdo its 2021 predecessor, the original faced COVID challenges.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps was fourth with $9 million (I said $7.5 million). The MCU pic’s tally is $247 million after four weeks.

The Bad Guys 2 rounded out the top five with $7.5 million. The 29% decline meant it surpassed my $5.5 million take. The animated sequel has earned $53 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Action sequel Nobody 2 starring Bob Odenkirk is the only wide release vying for a spot in the top five this weekend as Weapons aims to repeat in first place. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:

Nobody 2 Box Office Prediction

The first Nobody in 2021 premiered as COVID was presenting challenges to theaters. The follow-up is expected to build upon on the original’s numbers. I still question whether this gets to teens and I am putting it a shade under. That likely means a third place showing.

Weapons from Zach Cregger had a spectacular debut (more on that below). With an A- Cinemascore (impressive for the genre), its sophomore dip could be less pronounced than other summer offerings. Lack of competition should also help. I will warn that my drop-off projections have been a bit generous lately. Yet I’ll say a low to mid 40s ease should mean a mid 20s gross and that leaves it in first with room to spare.

As for Freakier Friday, it could fall more than 50% and still remain in second. Holdovers The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 should round out the high five. Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

2. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $13 million

3. Nobody 2

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

5. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (August 8-10)

Weapons capitalized on its intriguing trailer and laudatory reviews, dominating the chart with $43.5 million. That’s way ahead of my meager $28.8 million take and another 2025 winner for Warner Bros. While I don’t see it legging out like Sinners (another WB property), the road ahead should be fruitful.

Disney’s Freakier Friday with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan had to settle for second with $28.5 million. That’s on the lower end of its expected range and a bit below my $32.5 million prediction. It’ll hope for family audiences to keep it afloat in the coming weeks. That could be a tall order with its intended audience going back to school.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps, after two weeks at #1, was third with $15.7 million. The near 60% plummet (again) was under my $18.9 million estimate and the reboot stands at $230 million.

The Bad Guys 2 was fourth with $10.5 million in its second go-round. Once again I was more generous at $13.6 million. The animated sequel has made $43 million and is likely to fall short of its predecessor’s domestic tally ($97 million).

The Naked Gun rounded out the top five with $8.3 million and I said it would do $10 million. The two-week total is $32 million.

Finally, Sketch from Angel Studios debuted in lowly 10th place with $2.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.9 million since its Wednesday bow. I went with $3.9 million and $5.8 million, respectively.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Weapons

In 2022, Zach Cregger impressed critics and horror fans alike with Barbarian. He seems to have repeated that success with Weapons, out Friday. Focused on a mystery surrounding 17 missing children, Josh Brolin and Julia Garner star. The supporting cast includes Cary Christopher, Alden Ehrenreich, Austin Abrams, Benedict Wong, and Amy Madigan.

With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 79 Metacritic (the latter score right in line with Barbarian), Weapons aims to be an August sleeper hit. This is a genre that struggles to generate awards attention. That should hold true here, though I’ll note several reviewers are praising Cregger’s script. Original Screenplay, however, is likely to be too crowded for Weapons to contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

August 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Freakier Friday looks to rule the whole weekend while critically lauded horror pic Weapons and family fantasy Sketch from Angel Studios also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Freakier Friday Box Office Prediction
Weapons Box Office Prediction
Sketch Box Office Prediction

Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan reprise their roles from the 2003 body swap remake Freaky Friday in Freakier Friday. An absence of female driven material over the summer and goodwill towards the predecessor should mean an #1 premiere and I’m projecting low 30s (barring a feasible Weapons over performance).

Weapons should be in line for a runner-up start with encouraging word-of-mouth and effective trailers. High 20s or possible more seems achievable.

As for Sketch, it’s getting solid initial reviews. However, distributor Angel has stalled with their output lately. While I think it could have the capacity to surprise, my $3.9 million estimate from Friday to Sunday and $5.8 million prediction when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers would put it outside of the top five (likely in 8th).

Let’s talk holdovers. The Fantastic Four: First Steps fell considerably more than I assumed in its sophomore frame (more on that below). For the third go-round, a 50-52% drop is probably what we’ll see. The dips shouldn’t be as pronounced for The Bad Guys 2 or The Naked Gun in their second weekends. I’ll say mid to high 30s for the former and 40% for the latter.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:

1. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $32.5 million

2. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $28.8 million

3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

4. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

5. The Naked Gun

Predicted Gross: $10 million

Box Office Results (August 1-3)

I wrongly thought The Fantastic Four: First Steps would experience a low 50s decline similar to Superman from a couple weeks back. Yet Marvel’s 37th feature tumbled 67% to $38.6 million compared to my far more generous $50.6 million take. The studio can’t love that though it should level off this coming weekend to around 50% (similar to what Thor: Love and Thunder dropped after its high 60s fall).

Two high-profile newbies couldn’t match my projections. DreamWorks Animation’s sequel The Bad Guys 2 was second with $21.9 million. That’s a bit under what its 2022 predecessor managed and I thought it would do a bit over at $28.1 million.

The Naked Gun reboot with Liam Neeson had critics on its side, but still opened on the lower end of its expected range at $16.8 million in third. I had it pegged at $22.3 million. Paramount is hoping for decent legs throughout August.

Superman was fourth with $13.7 million (I said $13.5 million) as the DC reboot has amassed $316 million after four weeks.

Jurassic World Rebirth rounded out the top five with $8.7 million, a tad ahead of my $7.6 million call. After five weeks, it is roaring with $317 million.

Finally, body horror tale Together with Dave Franco and Alison Brie was sixth with $6.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That’s on pace with my respective predictions of $7 million and $10.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Weapons Box Office Prediction

After receiving critical kudos and impressive box office numbers for his solo directorial debut Barbarian in 2022, Zach Cregger’s follow-up Weapons is unloaded on August 8th. The horror mystery about a group of kids vanishing into the night stars Josh Brolin and Julia Garner (currently surfing multiplexes in The Fantastic Four: First Steps). Supporting players include Cary Christopher, Alden Ehrenreich, Austin Abrams, Benedict Wong, and Amy Madigan.

Effective trailers, appreciation for Barbarian, and early reviews (100% on RT currently) have caused genre fans to circle Weapons on their viewing calendar. While Cregger’s first scary movie started off with $10 million, his second is expected to double that figure and then some. Some estimates even have this getting to $30M+. I’ll be a bit more conservative and go high 20s.

Weapons opening weekend prediction: $28.8 million

For my Freakier Friday prediction, click here:

Freakier Friday Box Office Prediction

For my Sketch prediction, click here:

Sketch Box Office Prediction

Barbarian Review

Zach Cregger’s Barbarian is really three movies in its 100 minutes and you won’t see two of them coming. You won’t find this Blu-Ray laying around at an Airbnb for your viewing enjoyment (I realize there’s probably not many Blu-Rays laying around anyway). Your viewing enjoyment may depend on your tolerance for gross out scares and if that’s up your alley, this offers some genuine surprises.

Tess (Georgina Campbell) pulls up to a bad Detroit neighborhood to stay at the aforementioned company’s property. She has a job interview the next morning and is shocked to find someone else trying to catch some shuteye. Keith (Bill Skarsgard) is just as confused until they discover the property has been double booked.

For a little while, we’re led to think this could be a meet cute heading down rom com territory. Not so much. It’s hard to forget that Mr. Skarsgard donned creepy makeup recently as Pennywise in the It parts. The couple is instead heading down to the basement where there’s plenty of dank discoveries to uncover.

This is about where spoilers come into play and I do suggest watching Barbarian cold. We do have Justin Long in the mix as a sitcom actor going through a Me Too moment and other cast members whose house appearances shall remain a secret.

I give credit to Cregger, a sitcom actor himself and comedian, for a screenplay that veers into unexpected places. It also tackles some dark subjects while keeping the primary objective in focus. That’s to provide a frightening stay at this setting that wouldn’t merit many stars. On that note, just how were the reviews from previous guests? This creation does merit a referral for horror fans.

Barbarian Box Office Prediction

The fall movie season kicks off in horrific fashion with Barbarian, Zach Cregger’s directorial debut which premiered at Comic-Con in July to solid buzz. Whether its festival reaction translates to positive box office numbers is questionable.

Georgina Campbell, Bill Skargard (who’s had huge success in the genre with It and its sequel), and Justin Long star in a pic whose plot is being kept rather secretive. Early word-of-mouth suggests horror fans might be best served by entering this one cold.

September is not looking overly encouraging for blockbuster possibilities. It is, however, filled with scary flicks. Barbarian starts the trend with Pearl out a week later and Smile arriving at month’s end. Barbarian needs that chatter from its screenings to seep into the mainstream and I’m not sure it has. One comp could be Malignant, which premiered on the same post Labor Day weekend last year. It made just over $5 million though it was simultaneously streaming on HBO Max.

This should benefit a little from being theatrical only. I’ll say Barbarian will be lucky to make close to double digits, but may to settle for $6-8 million.

Barbarian opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million