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Todd’s 2016 Oscar Predictions: January 12th Edition

Well, hello everyone! It’s Thursday and my first Oscar predictions of the new year have rolled in…

In the past two weeks we’ve seen the Golden Globes occur, which showered its love upon La La Land. We’ve had BAFTA and Producers Guild nominations (that one produced a surprise nod for Deadpool and puts the comic book pic in the top 20 for the firs time). And the Director Guild announced their five nominees this morning, which exactly matches my picks here. We’ve seen pictures (in my estimation) increase their chances (Arrival, Hidden Figures) and others fall a bit (Silence).

On Thursday the 19th, I will make my final round of Thursday predictions and on Sunday the 22nd – my “final” final predictions prior to the announcement on January 24th.

Here’s how I see it all right now…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 7)

5. Lion (PR: 5)

6. Fences (PR: 4)

7. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

9. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

10. Silence (PR: 6)

11. Loving (PR: 11)

12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)

13. Sully (PR: 13)

14. Jackie (PR: 14)

15. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

16. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 16)

18. Patriots Day (PR: 17)

19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)

20. Zootopia (PR: 20)

Dropped Out:

The Jungle Book

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

7. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

8. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

9. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)

7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 7)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Adam Driver, Paterson

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)

5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

7. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)

8. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)

9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

5. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

9. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)

10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)

8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)

9. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

10. Lupita Nyong’o, Queen of Katwe (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Arrival (PR: 4)

3. Lion (PR: 2)

4. Fences (PR: 3)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

7. Loving (PR: 8)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

9. Silence (PR: 5)

10. Elle (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sully

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)

5. Toni Erdmann (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

6. The Lobster (PR: 6)

7. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

8. Jackie (PR: 7)

9. Zootopia (PR: 9)

10. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

I, Daniel Blake

Best Animated Feautre

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)

3. Moana (PR: 3)

4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

5. The Little Prince (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 5)

7. Finding Dory (PR: 6)

8. Your Name (PR: 9)

9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)

10. Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

April and the Extraordinary World

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)

2. Gleason (PR: 4)

3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)

4. 13th (PR: 3)

5. Cameraperson (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. The Ivory Game (PR: 9)

7. Life, Animated (PR: 5)

8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)

9. Weiner (PR: 10)

10. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

2. The Salesman (PR: 2)

3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)

4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)

5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. The King’s Choice (PR: 5)

7. Tanna (PR: 8)

8. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: 9)

9. Paradise (PR: 7)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Arrival (PR: 4)

3. Moonlight (PR: 2)

4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

5. Silence (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities

6. Lion (PR: 6)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

9. Jackie (PR: 8)

10. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Jungle Book

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)

4. Allied (PR: 3)

5. Love & Friendship (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)

7. Silence (PR: 6)

8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)

9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Live by Night (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Alice Through the Looking Glass

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

4. Arrival (PR: 3)

5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Silence (PR: 5)

8. Lion (PR: 7)

9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)

10. Sully (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Jackie

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees

1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)

2. Deadpool (PR: 3)

3. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities

4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)

5. Suicide Squad (PR: 4)

6. The Dressmaker (PR: 6)

7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 7)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Jackie (PR: 5)

8. The BFG (PR: 9)

9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Hidden Figures 

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)

2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)

3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 3)

4. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

5. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 6)

7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 4)

8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)

9. “Faith” from Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

“I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

5. Silence (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 8)

8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)

9. Allied (PR: 6)

10. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)

5. Sully (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Arrival (PR: 6)

7. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 7)

9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Allied (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Captain America: Civil War

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)

Other Possibilties

6. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

7. Sully (PR: 6)

8. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)

9. Deadpool (PR: 10)

10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Allied 

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. The BFG (PR: 5)

7. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 10)

8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 8)

9. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 7)

10. Passengers (PR: 9)

That equates to the following number of nominations for each film:

14 Nominations

La La Land

9 Nominations

Arrival

8 Nominations

Moonlight

7 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea

6 Nominations

Lion, Hacksaw Ridge

4 Nominations

Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

3 Nominations

Hidden Figures, Hell or High Water, Jackie

2 Nominations

Captain Fantastic, Nocturnal Animals, Toni Erdmann, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Deepwater Horizon

1 Nomination

Elle, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, The Little Prince, I Am Not Your Negro, Gleason, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Cameraperson, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Allied, Love & Friendship, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange.

And that does it for now! Until next week…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 29th Edition

We have reached my final Oscar predictions post of 2016! There will be likely be four more posts: 3 Thursday editions (January 5, 12, 19) and a final one on Monday, January 23rd before the nominations are revealed on Tuesday, January 24th.

Per usual, I’m listing 20 Best Picture possibilities and ten in all the other categories.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

3. Moonlight (PR: 2)

4. Fences (PR: 6)

5. Lion (PR: 4)

6. Silence (PR: 5)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

11. Loving (PR: 11)

12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)

13. Sully (PR: 12)

14. Jackie (PR: 13)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

16. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)

17. Patriots Day (PR: 16)

18. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)

19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)

20. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gold

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 5)

7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)

9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)

7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)

10. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: 9)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

5. Meryl Streep. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)

7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

9. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

3. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

7. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)

9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)

10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)

8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 10)

10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 9)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 3)

3. Fences (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Silence (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

8. Loving (PR: 9)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

10. Sully (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Lobster (PR: 6)

7. Jackie (PR: 7)

8. Toni Erdmann (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Zootopia (PR: 8)

10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Eye in the Sky

Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)

3. Moana (PR: 3)

4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

5. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)

Other Possibilties

6. Finding Dory (PR: 5)

7. The Little Prince (PR: 7)

8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)

9. Your Name (PR: 10)

10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)

2. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)

3. 13th (PR: 2)

4. Gleason (PR: 5)

5. Life, Animated (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Cameraperson (PR: 4)

7. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)

8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)

9. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)

10. Weiner (PR: 9)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

2. The Salesman (PR: 2)

3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)

4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)

5. The King’s Choice (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 4)

7. Paradise (PR: 8)

8. Tanna (PR: 7)

9. It’s Only the End of the World (PR: 9)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Lion (PR: 5)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

8. Jackie (PR: 8)

9. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Hell or High Water

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Allied (PR: 4)

4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)

5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Silence (PR: 8)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)

8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

9. Live by Night (PR: 6)

10. Alice Through the Looking Glass (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

5. Silence (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 10)

7. Lion (PR: 5)

8. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)

9. Sully (PR: 7)

10. Jackie (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees

1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)

2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)

3. Deadpool (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

4. Suicide Squad (PR: 3)

5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 7)

6. The Dressmaker (PR: 5)

7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 6)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 4)

3. Moonlight (PR: 2)

4. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)

5. Jackie (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)

7. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

9. The BFG (PR: 9)

10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Moana

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)

2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)

3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 4)

4. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 8)

5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 3)

7. “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)

8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)

9. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 10)

10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Silence (PR: 4)

5. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)

8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)

9. Live by Night (PR: 6)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Jungle Book

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 3)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

4. Sully (PR: 4)

5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Arrival (PR: 7)

7. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)

10. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Deadpool

Doctor Strange

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Sully (PR: 7)

7. Allied (PR: 8)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 9)

9. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

10. Deadpool (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)

5. The BFG (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

7. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 8)

8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 7)

9. Passengers (PR: 10)

10. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 9)

That leaves us with the following nomination breakdown:

14 Nominations

La La Land

8 Nominations

Moonlight, Arrival

6 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea, Lion, Silence

5 Nominations

Hacksaw Ridge

4 Nominations

Fences, Jackie, Florence Foster Jenkins

3 Nominations

Hidden Figures, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

2 Nominations

20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Nocturnal Animals, Moana, Deepwater Horizon

1 Nomination

Loving, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, My Life as a Zucchini, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The King’s Choice, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Deadpool, Sing Street, Rules Don’t Apply, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange, The BFG.

That’ll do it for now. See ya with the predictions next year!

 

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 22nd Edition

We are moving closer and closer to Oscar nominations being out and there’s plenty of precursor action happening, etc…

Some of the categories, including Best Foreign Language Film (with its list whittled down to nine), Makeup and Hairstyling (seven possibles) and Visual Effects (ten possibilities). All in all, this last predictions posts before Christmas gives my take on where all the races stand as things (sort of) become a bit clearer.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Lion (PR: 6)

5. Silence (PR: 4)

6. Fences (PR: 5)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

11. Loving (PR: 11)

12. Sully (PR: 13)

13. Jackie (PR: 12)

14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

16. Patriots Day (PR: 16)

17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)

18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)

19. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Gold (PR: 20)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)

7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 7)

9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeff Nichols, Loving

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)

7. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, Gold

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

7. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 5)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

10. Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rebecca Hall, Christine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)

9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 7)

10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

7. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)

9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)

10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Lion (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Silence (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

9. Loving (PR: 8)

10. Sully (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Lobster (PR: 6)

7. Jackie (PR: 7)

8. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)

10. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

I, Daniel Blake

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)

3. Moana (PR: 3)

4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 7)

7. The Little Prince (PR: 6)

8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)

9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)

10. Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Trolls

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 2)

2. 13th (PR: 1)

3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)

4. Cameraperson (PR: 6)

5. Gleason (PR: 4)

Other Possibilties

6. Life, Animated (PR: 5)

7. Fire at Sea (PR: 9)

8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)

9. Weiner (PR: 7)

10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

2. The Salesman (PR: 3)

3. Land of Mine (PR: 4)

4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: Not Ranked)

5. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. The King’s Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Tanna (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Paradise (PR: Not Ranked)

9. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Elle

Neruda

The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki

Julieta

Ma’Rosa

The Ardennes

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Lion (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

8. Jackie (PR: 5)

9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Love &  Friendship (PR: 4)

4. Allied (PR: 3)

5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Live by Night (PR: 6)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

8. Silence (PR: 8)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

10. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)

5. Lion (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Silence (PR: 3)

7. Sully (PR: 6)

8. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jackie (PR: 10)

10. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees

1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)

3. Suicide Squad (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

4. Deadpool (PR: 5)

5. The Dressmaker (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Hail, Caesar! (PR: Not Ranked)

7. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jackie

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hacksaw Ridge

Love & Friendship

Doctor Strange

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 7)

3. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

4. Lion (PR: 2)

5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Jackie (PR: 3)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Moana (PR: 4)

9. The BFG (PR: 10)

10. The Jungle Book (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)

2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)

3. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 4)

4. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)

5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)

7. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 6)

8. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 7)

9. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 10)

10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po

“I See Victory” from Hidden Figures

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Silence (PR: 3)

5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

6. Live by Night (PR: 5)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Allied

Love & Friendship

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

3. La La Land (PR: 2)

4. Sully (PR: 4)

5. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

Allied

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)

5. Arrival (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

7. Sully (PR: 7)

8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

10. Deadpool (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The BFG (PR: 6)

7. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deepwater Horizon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sully

Star Trek Beyond

Deadpool

A Monster Calls

That gives you a current nomination breakdown as follows:

14 Nominations

La La Land

9 Nominations

Arrival

8 Nominations

Moonlight

7 Nominations

Lion

6 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea, Hacksaw Ridge

5 Nominations

Silence

4 Nominations

Fences, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

3 Nominations

Jackie, Hidden Figures, Florence Foster Jenkins

2 Nominations

Sully, 20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Moana, 13th, The Jungle Book

1 Nomination

Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Cameraperson, Gleason, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Love & Friendship, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Allied, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange. 

And there you have it! I’ll be back at it again next Thursday with my final predictions of the year!