98th Academy Awards Predictions: December 17th Edition

This week’s biggest announcement about the Oscars in general is that the telecast is moving to YouTube in 2029. The most notable development for the 98th ceremony was the release of the shortlists. There are several categories slimmed down from anywhere to 10-20 possibilities – International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, the new Casting race, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects.

We have winners and losers to discuss from those contenders. The Testament of Ann Lee was blanked and it was expected to show up in competitions like Cinematography and the musical fields. Jay Kelly underperformed. It made the list of 20 Score hopefuls, but it didn’t get into Casting (where I’ve had it predicted for a nomination). The Lee and Kelly struggles are enough for me to drop Amanda Seyfried (Lee) from my Actress five and Adam Sandler (Kelly) from my Supporting Actor quintet. Both could still make it, but I’m more skeptical. The beneficiaries are Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) as they return to their lineups. I am now also giving the 2nd Netflix BP slot to Train Dreams instead of Kelly. In Best Actor, however, I’m dropping Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams from my five in favor of Michael B. Jordan in Sinners.

On the other hand, Wicked: For Good landed 8 shortlist mentions (tying with Sinners). Does that help its chances for a BP nom where I dropped it out of my 10 six days ago? That’s arguable. I’d certainly say it doesn’t hurt and I toyed with putting it back in. As you’ll see, it’s almost there in 11th.

It was also a banner day for Sirât, the Spanish drama that landed a surprise 5 shortlist mentions. I’m not projecting it though the idea of the film getting a BP nod is not out of the question.

The other news earlier this week was the review embargo lifting for Avatar: Fire and Ash. For the most part, it is being called the weakest of the trilogy. I’d say its fortunes took a tumble in BP though it’s still in the conversation.

Let’s take a look at all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Train Dreams (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

14. No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-1)

9. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nuremberg (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hedda (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sirât (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Belén (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Endless Cookie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Scarlet (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Boys Go to Jupiter

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (E)

5. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Seeds (PR: 8) (E)

9. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Blue Moon

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hedda (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Snow White

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kokuho (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Alto Knights (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

28 Years Later

Weapons

Wolf Man

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 9) (+3)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Drive” from F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Warfare

The Testament of Ann Lee

Marty Supreme

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tron: Ares (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Electric State (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Mickey 17

How to Train Your Dragon

And that leaves these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Come See Me in the Good Light, KPop Demon Hunters

1 Nomination

Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: December 11th Edition

There’s been a whole lotta precursor developments since my last Oscar predictions update on November 23rd. Critics groups are weighing in with their best-of choices, the review embargo for Marty Supreme lifted while the social embargo lapsed for the upcoming Avatar: Fire and Ash. Most importantly, the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe voters revealed their nominees along with the National Board of Review (NBR) and American Film Institute (AFI).

One thing seems certain in that One Battle After Another is the easy frontrunner for Best Picture. Is it a guaranteed victory? No, but it would have to encounter some bumps in the road for the narrative to change. That’s yet to happen.

At this juncture, I also think Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners are safe choices for BP inclusion. That leaves several pics vying for three slots. Will either of the big-budget sequels (Avatar: Fire and Ash, Wicked: For Good) make it? Can Jay Kelly recover after a noticeable Globes omission or is Train Dreams the other Netflix nominee along with Frankenstein? Will The Secret Agent make it three international contenders in the ten? Or could No Other Choice make it four? Or do Bugonia (which has been doing well in precursors) or The Testament of Ann Lee (which has been struggling in precursors) make the cut?

My mid-December snapshot of prognostication answers those questions… for now. The Secret Agent and Bugonia are now in my top 10 with the mega-sequels Wicked and Avatar falling out. I, perhaps stubbornly, am sticking with Jay Kelly in the lineup. I came very close to replacing it with Train Dreams.

In Best Actress, Cynthia Erivo’s work in Wicked drops in favor of Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You). In Actor, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) rises with George Clooney as Jay Kelly falling out of the contending quintet (even with the latter’s movie clinging to a BP nom). In Supporting Actor, Benicio del Toro jumps from 6th to 2nd and over his Battle costar Sean Penn. I still have both getting in with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) now on the outside looking in. Director and Supporting Actress remain the same with some movement in the rankings.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-3)

14. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out

Clint Bentley, Train Dreams

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)

7. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Is This Thing On?

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hedda (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nuremberg (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sirât (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Belén (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Lost in Starlight

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Seeds (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Orwell 2 +2 = 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Deaf President Now!

Cutting Through Rocks

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rental Family

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)

9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. F1 (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Weapons (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 6) (-2)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

Wicked: For Good

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Bugonia

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Warfare (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. F1 (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (E)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (-1)

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

12 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Marty Supreme

8 Nominations

Frankenstein

7 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: November 23rd Edition

The five Best Picture winners from this decade have all seen at least one of their cast members win an acting Oscar: Frances McDormand was Best Actress for 2020’s Nomadland, Troy Kotsur took Supporting Actor for 2021’s CODA, 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once boasted victories in Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), and Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. were the lead and supporting actor winners for Oppenheimer in 2023, and Mikey Madison was last year’s Actress recipient for Anora.

That’s why it felt strange not having any of the thespians from One Battle for Another listed at #1 in my possibilities. I’ve had the acclaimed Paul Thomas Anderson effort on top of my Best Picture projections for several weeks. Yet I’ve had Leonardo DiCaprio (Best Actor), Sean Penn (Supporting Actor), and Teyana Taylor (Supporting Actress) each listed 2nd behind my current frontrunners in those races.

Excellent arguments can be made for all three to be 1st in their fields. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see at least two Battle ensemble members take gold. Today I am elevating one of them to the top position and that’s Teyana Taylor. She takes the spot with Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) slipping to second. Frankly, this is less about Taylor and more about Wicked‘s so-so critical reaction when the embargo lifted on Monday.

I still have Wicked clinging to a BP nom and Cynthia Erivo managing an Actress nod – though I am less convinced that either will happen. You will see dips in other categories below and it appears unlikely to match the 10 nominations that its predecessor achieved. To be clear, Grande is still a threat to win. She was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) last time and there could be enough goodwill for the Good Witch to prevail.

In other developments, I am putting two performers in the supporting fields in for the first time! Amy Madigan’s costume inspiring Weapons work makes the quintet in Supporting Actress. This is partly due to confusion as to which Marty Supreme costar (Gwyneth Paltrow or Odessa A’Zion) is more viable. I basically have them canceling each other out to Madigan’s benefit.

Jacob Elordi’s monstrous performance in Frankenstein is also elevated with Battle‘s Benicio del Toro now on the outside looking in. I nearly dropped Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) but I hesitate to drop him with his costar George Clooney still in my Actor five.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (E)

13. Train Dreams (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)

15. No Other Choice (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlet (PR: 6) (E)

7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lost in Starlight (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ne Zha 2

Animal Farm

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)

4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Seeds (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Dead President Now! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Tale of Silyan

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wolf Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Weapons (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)

8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (+1)

3. F1 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Warfare (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mickey 17 (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sinners

11 Nominations

Hamnet

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

7 Nominations

Frankenstein

6 Nominations

Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, The Testament of Ann Lee, Train Dreams

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2

November 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (11/05): Posting a significant update with Nuremberg and Die, My Love predicted openings at $3 million and $2.5 million, respectively.

After a frighteningly bad Halloween weekend that marked the worst box office frame of 2025, Predator: Badlands seeks to scare up decent business. We also have the boxing biopic Christy with Sydney Sweeney debuting and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Predator: Badlands Box Office Prediction

Christy Box Office Prediction

There’s no question that Predator: Badlands will easily be #1 though it has a wide range of possibilities. A worst case scenario might be high teens/low 20s with the rosiest performance nearing $40 million. I’m going mid to high 20s.

Christy could have benefited from better reviews and more awards speculation, but it should struggle to make the top 5.

On a side note, there’s two other wannabe Oscar contenders premiering: Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson in Die, My Love and the historical drama Nuremberg with Russell Crowe and Rami Malek. I’ve yet to see theater counts on either and both saw their awards prospects dim upon festival screenings. I will update my numbers if I feel one or both have a chance of breaking through.

As for holdovers, it could be a close race for #2 and I have Regretting You just edging current champ Black Phone 2. It could also be tight between Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc and Bugonia to round out the high five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

2. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

3. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

4. Nuremberg

Predicted Gross: $3 million

5. Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

6. Bugonia

Predicted Gross: $2.7 million

7. Die, My Love

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million

8. Christy

Predicted Gross: $2.2 million

Box Office Results (October 31-November 2)

The worst Halloween weekend since 1993 is thanks to a dearth of new material with a likely assist by game 7 of the World Series on Saturday night. Black Phone 2 managed to return to 1st in its third outing with $8.3 million, on target with my $8 million call. The horror sequel has taken in $61 million so far.

Regretting You was close behind in second with $7.8 million, ahead of my $6.1 million prediction. The romantic drama stands at $27 million after two weeks.

Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc, after an unexpected #1 bow, fell an anticipated 66% to third with $6.2 million (I said $6.4 million). The ten-day tally is $30 million.

Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos and starring Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons didn’t exactly having bragging rights in fourth with $5 million. Yet it did easily eclipse my $2.8 million projection as it expanded nationwide. Counting its limited release the previous weekend, it’s made $6 million.

The 40th anniversary reissue of Back to the Future was fifth with $4.9 million compared to my $4.6 million guesstimate. The extra coin brought its overall domestic total to $221 million.

Finally, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere sank 58% in its sophomore go-round in sixth with $3.7 million, I was more generous at $4.8 million and the biopic has earned a mere $16 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

98th Academy Awards Predictions: November 2nd Edition

It’s been three weeks (!) since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions, but there was prognosticating activity in the meantime. I did deep dives on Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups, you can find them here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Picture Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Director Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actress Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

Now that November is here, there are some notable shifts with Frankenstein back in the BP top 10 and Bugonia falling out. In fact, I only have Bugonia getting a solo nod in Adapted Screenplay. Amanda Seyfried returns to the Actress quintet with Emma Stone dropping.

That’s better than Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which I have blanking on nomination morning. That means Jeremy Allen White is on the outside looking in with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) taking his spot. Jeremy Strong’s Supporting Actor work in Nowhere is nowhere in the top 5 with Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) elevating.

Only Director and Supporting Actress stay intact in the biggies while we see shifting #1’s in Production Design, Sound, and a different selected song for Wicked: For Good in the pole position. You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Bugonia (PR: 10) (-1)

12. No Other Choice (PR: 12) (E)

13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+4)

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)

8. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (E)

10. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. Is This Thing On? (PR: 6) (-3)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Weapons

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Song Song Blue

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sirât (PR: 7) (E)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Arco (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)

7. Scarlet (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (E)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters from Andrivka (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Seeds (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 6) (E)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

The Librarians

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. No Other Choice (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Weapons (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+4)

2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)

3. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)

8. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Sinners (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Warfare (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-3)

10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (-1)

And that leaves the following movies receiving these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

12 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Hamnet, Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Marty Supreme

7 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent

1 Nominations

28 Years Later, 2000 Meter from Andrivka, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zooptopia 2

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Picture Race (October Edition)

As October draws to a close, it’s time for a deep dive into the Best Picture race with two months left in the release calendar. I’ve done the same with the directing competition and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups over the past few days, you can access them here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Director Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actress Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the Best Picture field on April 17th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the 10 BP hopefuls along with 15 other possibilities . At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

After the Hunt

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

The Life of Chuck

Marty Supreme

No Other Choice

The Rivals of Amziah King

Sentimental Value

Wicked: For Good

Other Possibilities:

Alpha

Ballad of a Small Player

Bugonia

Die, My Love

Frankenstein

Highest 2 Lowest

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Materialists

Michael

One Battle After Another

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

The Testament of Ann Lee

Let’s dispense with the movies that are no longe viable. The Rivals of Amziah King and Michael will be 2026 releases. The following titles did not get solid enough reviews, box office, or a combo of both to truly be threats: After the Hunt (which I initially had ranked at #1 back in the spring), The Life of Chuck, (despite winning the 2024 Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival), Alpha, Ballad of a Small Player, Die, My Love (though Jennifer Lawrence could contend in Actress), F1 (which was a critically appreciated hit and could nab some tech nods), Highest 2 Lowest, Kiss of the Spider Woman (perhaps Jennifer Lopez can sneak in Supporting Actress), Materialists, and The Smashing Machine.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and The Testament of Ann Lee aren’t dead in the water, but the former is a sizable box office disappointment with some less than stellar reviews and the latter is perhaps too divisive. Their leads Jeremy Allen White and Amanda Seyfried have healthier chances in the lead acting contests.

So let’s get into the 11 of the 25 aforementioned titles that do still have a decent chance and a few others worthy of mention.

The soft frontrunner appears to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another with its multiple acting contenders and some of the highest critical praise of the year. Even though it disappointed a bit at the box office, the Cinemascore grade of A indicates it would be a satisfactory audience choice for voters to select. Plus PTA is generally seen as overdue for Academy affection.

Its biggest competition could be Hamnet from Chloé Zhao, who picked up a directorial prize and a BP win for 2020’s Nomadland. History could repeat five years later for her heralded historical drama.

I’m also confident that Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, the vampiric financial smash from the spring, will be remembered on BP ballots even though horror flicks often have a hard time breaking through. This should be a welcome exception.

Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is a festival darling that has enough goodwill to make the BP cut.

Two upcoming releases have their review embargoes intact but have screened to encouraging word-of-mouth: Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme (where Timothée Chalamet appears to be a Best Actor favorite) and Wicked: For Good, part two to Wicked which garnered BP and other nominations last year. Both should find themselves among the ten.

That’s six pics (One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good) that I’m confident are in. Twelve others are jockeying for the four additional slots.

I’ve had Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein in and out of my lineup at various times. I’m becoming more convinced it could be Netflix’s best chance in BP.

An argument could easily be made that the streamer’s Jay Kelly from Noah Baumbach is their strongest horse with its Hollywood friendly storyline. Some reviews have been lukewarm, but I still am leaning toward it placing in the 10.

To close the Netflix loop, Train Dreams has its ardent admirers and I wouldn’t totally discount it. Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite seems to be fizzling a tad due to some ambivalent audience reaction, but a rebound is not out of the question.

Avatar: Fire and Ash looks to follow in the footsteps of its two predecessors. Having it in or near the selected 10 seems like a smart move but screenings will soon tell the tale.

Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident from Neon took the Palme d’Or at Cannes and I’m increasingly confident it’ll be an international contender in its own race and BP (like Neon’s Sentimental Value).

The Secret Agent (Neon) and No Other Choice (Neon) could accomplish the same dual noms though it’s rare for more than two international submissions to get into the big dance. And not every Neon distributed foreign title can make the list… can they?

Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos may be a touch too oddball for BP though I’d be careful to dismiss the latest from The Favourite and Poor Things maker.

Richard Linklater’s has had an impressive year with Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague though I’m guessing neither are real threats.

Finally, Song Sung Blue (out Christmas) is said to be a crowdpleaser and Kate Hudson is a possibility in Best Actress. A Musical/Comedy BP spot at the Globes seems more feasible than Academy love.

Keep an eye on the blog with updated rankings on BP and all other feature film races hitting shortly!

October 31-November 2 Box Office Predictions

The box office should be scary this weekend and not in a good way as there likely won’t be any films topping $10 million… with one potential unconventional exception.

New wide releases are the 40th anniversary re-release of Back to the Future and the expansion of Bugonia. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Back to the Future Box Office Prediction

Bugonia Box Office Prediction

I have Future hitting mid single digits and that’s probably going to put the Robert Zemeckis classic toward the bottom of the top five (or six). I have it neck and neck with the second frame of Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which delivered subpar numbers.

That’s more than I’m giving the latest Yorgos Lanthimos effort starring Emma Stone. With my Bugonia estimate under $3 million, it should be outside the first half of the top 10.

Chainsaw Man: The Movie: Reze Arc exceeded expectations (more on that below) and continued a banner year for anime. However, a drop in the mid to high 60s is probably coming.

Regretting You weathered poor reviews for an opening in line with estimates and I foresee a sophomore dip in the mid 50s.

If Chainsaw and Regretting play according to my though process, that could allow Black Phone 2 to return to #1 (officially). Moviegoers might seek a fright fest this weekend and the sequel fits the bill.

So what’s with all the uncertainty about what’s actually going to be #1? KPop Demon Hunters: A Sing-Along Event is returning to theaters for Halloween weekend. The animated Netflix juggernaut first hit theaters in August for two days after its streaming start, resulting in a fantastic $19.2 million on Saturday and Sunday. This time around it’s playing all three days and I’m estimating it will generate $12 million. Here’s the catch. Netflix doesn’t officially report their numbers so it’ll be #1 with an asterisk.

Here’s how I have the top six (counting KPop) shaking out:

*1. KPop Demon Hunters: A Sing-Along Event

Predicted Gross: $12 million

2. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

4. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

6. Back to the Future

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (October 24-26)

In a surprise result, Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc was easily #1 with $18 million, eclipsing my $12.8 million estimate. It continues an impressive 2025 for Asian animated material including KPop and the record breaking Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle.

Regretting You took the runner-up spot with $13.6 million, just under my $14 million prediction. The romantic drama based on a Colleen Hoover novel was hampered by far less buzz than last year’s It Ends with Us (a fellow Hoover adaptation) in addition to poor reviews.

Black Phone 2 fell two rungs to third with $12.9 million compared to my $13.7 million call. The ten-day total is $48 million.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere was a major disappointment in fourth with $8.8 million. I had it placing first with $16.1 million but moviegoers didn’t warm up to the musical biopic of The Boss.

Tron: Ares rounded out the top five with $4.9 million (I said $5 million) for a three-week tally of $63 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Director Race (October Edition)

Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. All four acting contests have been covered. If you missed my write-ups on them, they are linked here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actress Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the directing field on April 12th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Other Possibilities:

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

Edward Berger, Ballad of a Small Player

James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Spike Lee, Highest 2 Lowest

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

The 5 eventual nominees could be found among those 15 possibilities. However, we can be confident some won’t make it in. For Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King seems to be a 2026 release. After the Hunt was a commercial and critical disappointment and Luca Guadagnino appears to be a non-factor. The out of contention status also applies to Edward Berger, Mike Flanagan, and Spike Lee.

Let’s get into the others and other names not raised back in April. Both Josh Safdie and Chloé Zhao’s movies are probable safe bets for BP. They could certainly come along for the ride. I’m slightly more confident in Zhao contending for her second trophy after winning in 2020 for Nomadland though Safdie is definitely viable in his solo behind the camera effort.

Park Chan-wook’s fortunes should be tied to whether No Other Choice makes BP and I keep going back and forth on that. The same could be said Noah Baumbach, Jon M. Chu, Guillermo del Toro, and Yorgos Lanthimos. Their respective features Jay Kelly, Wicked: For Good (as yet unseen), Frankenstein, and Bugonia are all on the BP bubble. Same goes for the unmentioned A House of Dynamite and Kathryn Bigelow.

Even if Avatar: Fire and Ash gets into BP, I’m skeptical James Cameron is in unless the third franchise entry as universally seen as the best. We’ll know that in a few weeks.

Sentimental Value is not on the bubble. Its ticket is likely punched and that could benefit Joachim Trier for a first nomination though I don’t believe his nom is assured as the movie’s.

Who is assured? Paul Thomas Anderson. One Battle is your soft frontrunner for BP and this is a golden opportunity for the Academy to honor PTA for this and his overall body of work.

I also think Ryan Coogler (Sinners) is in for his vampire epic which is the other Warner Bros title vying for BP alongside One Battle.

A pair of foreign filmmakers could vie for a slot – Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) and Kieber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent). Their fortunes are also tied to BP inclusion and I feel the latter has a stronger pathway.

In conclusion, I feel safe with PTA, Coogler, and Zhao RSVP’d for the directorial dance. The other two noms could be filled by plenty of names above. My in-depth posts on the six biggest categories will conclude with Best Picture!

Bugonia Box Office Prediction

The latest concoction from the prolific Yorgos Lanthimos expands nationwide October 31st with Bugonia. Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons headline with Aidan Delbis, Stavros Halkias, and Alicia Silverstone providing support. It premiered at the Venice Film Festival in late August and has an 89% Rotten Tomatoes rating with 68 on Metacritic.

Poor Things became a major Academy contender (11 nominations) in 2023 while Kinds of Kindness underwhelmed with awards voters and viewers last year. I suspect Bugonia may perform closer to the latter as it could struggle everywhere between the coasts. While Poor amassed $34 million domestically at the box office, Kindness managed just $5 million.

Slated to hit around 1800 venues after a limited rollout the previous weekend, I have this between $2-4 million.

Bugonia opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million

For my Back to the Future prediction, click here:

Back to the Future Box Office Prediction

98th Academy Awards Predictions: October 12th Edition

The New York Film Festival has wrapped up with Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On? debuting prior to its December release. Being that his previous two directorial efforts (A Star Is Born, Maestro) were up for BP, Thing was a curious piece to the emerging awards puzzle. The verdict? While some reviews were strong, I don’t think it’s enough to factor into the Oscar conversation with the possible exception of Original Screenplay. You won’t find Will Arnett, Laura Dern or Cooper in my acting possibilities. I do think the film could get attention at the Globes if it’s placed in Musical/Comedy.

This is the time of year where category placements are becoming clearer. Not surprisingly, Paul Mescal is confirmed as a Supporting Actor hopeful for Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.

More surprisingly, it was revealed that Chase Infiniti will contend for lead Actress in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. I had her slotted in Supporting Actress and getting a nomination in that race last week. This upends the dynamic. I absolutely think she could get in the lead derby, but I went back and forth between her, Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) with only two of them making the cut and Seyfried coming out on the short end. The Infiniti announcement also means Regina Hall could join her costar Teyana Taylor in supporting. For now I have Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass joining her Sentimental Value costar Elle Fanning in that group of five. Under a best case scenario, Battle could see six of its performers (Leonardo DiCaprio, Infiniti, Taylor, Hall, Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro) up for gold. That would set an Academy record for thespians competing. It might be a long shot, but it is a possibility.

While Another’s chances are plenty, the continued poor box office performance of The Smashing Machine (with around a 70% plummet in weekend #2) confirms my feeling that Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt’s campaigns are on life support at best. They both drop from my 10 possibilities.

Perhaps the biggest story of the week was New York’s “surprise” screening of Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme prior to its December release. Unlike Bradley Cooper’s third picture, Safdie’s inaugural behind the camera production solidified its status as a top five BP contender. Timothée Chalamet, it turns out, appears to deserve the #1 ranking I’ve had him with all along in Best Actor. Much like Battle, Supporting Actress is more confusing. While Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa A’Zion could see their names called among the quintet (with the former seemingly more realistic), both are far from automatic. I am elevating Safdie back in the directorial five. That’s at the expense of Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value).

In Best Actor, I’m putting Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) in the high five for the first time with Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) now on the outside looking in.

And in BP, Bugonia is back in and clinging to the 10 spot with No Other Choice dropping. A note that I came very close to putting Frankenstein in.

You can read all the movement below and that includes Sean Penn rising to 1st in Supporting Actor after Stellan Skarsgård has held that position for many weeks.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+1)

12. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Is This Thing On?

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Jafar Pahani, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actress)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)

8. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (moved to lead Actress)

Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Akira Emoto, Rental Family

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Is This Thing On? (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (E)

10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rental Family

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hedda

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)

4. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Seeds (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Alabama Solution (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Librarians (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cutting Through Rocks

The Eyes of Ghana

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rental Family

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Snow White

Hedda

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hamnet (PR: 9) (+2)

8. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (-2)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Weapons (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)

3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+1)

4. F1 (PR: 3) (-1)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Warfare (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lost Bus

And that equates to these films nabbing these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good

11 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Marty Supreme

9 Nominations

Hamnet

7 Nominations

Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Bugonia

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

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