The 79th BAFTAs (Britain’s version of the Academy Awards) occur this Sunday and they are often a reliable precursor to what Oscar voters will do. For example, they are 8 for 8 in the past two cycles in forecasting the acting races. On the flip side, in 2022, none of the four BAFTA acting recipients took the Oscar. The previous five cycles has seen the BAFTA Best Film match with Best Picture only twice (Nomadland, Oppenheimer). In 2021, the Brits honored The Power of the Dog over CODA (which wasn’t nominated). The following year it was All Quiet on the Western Front instead of Everything Everywhere All at Once. Last year, BAFTA selected Conclave and not Anora.
That’s why it’s very tempting to go with Hamnet over arguable frontrunners One Battle After Another and Sinners in the top competition. I almost did so, but ultimately decided with roll with Battle (with a low degree of confidence). Let’s walk through each race one by one with my winner projections and a runner-up.
Best Film
Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Best Actor
Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)
WINNER: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Best Original Screenplay
I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Outstanding British Film
28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die My Love, H is for Hawk, Hamnet, I Swear, Mr Burton, Pillion, Steve
WINNER: Hamnet
Runner-Up: Pillion
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman
WINNER: Pillion
Runner-Up: My Father’s Shadow
Best Film Not in the English Language
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: The Secret Agent
Best Animated Film
Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
WINNER: Zootopia 2
Runner-Up: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Best Children’s & Family Film
Arco, Boong, Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2
WINNER: Zootopia 2
Runner-Up: Arco
Best Documentary
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor
WINNER: 2000 Meters to Andrivka
Runner-Up: The Perfect Neighbor
Best Casting
I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Editing
F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
WINNER: F1
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Make Up & Hair
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Original Score
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Production Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Sound
F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare
WINNER: F1
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Special Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus
WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Runner-Up: F1
That adds up to these movies generating numbers of victories:
5 Wins
One Battle After Another
4 Wins
Sentimental Value
3 Wins
Frankenstein
2 Wins
F1, Hamnet, Zootopia 2
1 Win
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Marty Supreme, Pillion, Sinners
I’ll have a recap up Sunday with how I performed and my thoughts on how it might impact the Oscars…
Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs were unveiled five days after the Academy revealed their list. The Brits equivalent of the Oscars can often indicate which nominees and pictures are (or aren’t) having momentum in the general awards space.
Overall I went 92 for 122 (75%) in the feature-length categories. Let’s walk through each race with the hopefuls in contention, how I did, and some initial thoughts.
Best Film
Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
No surprise here as One Battle led all nominees with 14 and Sinners right behind with 13. It will probably come down to those two pics with Battle having an edge. I would say Hamnet is a spoiler but it missed some key races.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
The best film five and Lanthimos as I predicted. PTA is the favorite.
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
How I Did: 5/6
I gotta stop leaving out Kate Hudson. She’s in over my upset selection of Andrea Riseborough (Dragonfly). Bet on Buckley.
Best Actor
Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
How I Did: 5/6
Aramayo gets in over Pillion‘s Harry Melling. Chalamet could continue his sweep unless DiCaprio or Hawke upset.
Best Supporting Actress
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)
How I Did: 5/6
A genuine surprise as Amy Madigan (Weapons) is left out in favor of Mulligan. This is likely between Lilleass and Taylor.
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
How I Did: 5/6
I had Stellan’s son Alexander Skarsgård (Pillion) joining the sextet and not Mullan. It’s Stellan who probably has the best odds.
Best Original Screenplay
I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
The Secret Agent over Blue Moon. This is a Value v. Sinners derby.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion
How I Did: 4/5
Ballad over Frankenstein with OBAA out front.
Best Animated Feature
Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
How I Did: 1/3
I whiffed here. First of all, this race typically has four nominees. I had Arco, Demon Slayer, and KPop Demon Hunters and not Elio or Amélie (which was frankly an oversight on my part). It could win and so could Zootopia 2 which is the only flick I correctly called.
Best Documentary
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, 2000 Meters to Andrivka
How I Did: 4/5
Some retribution after my 1/5 showing at the Oscars. I had Ocean with David Attenborough and not Cover-Up. I wouldn’t assume Neighbor takes this even though it’s the Oscar frontrunner. I actually think all five are viable.
Best Film Not in the English Language
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This matches the Academy’s quintet and, like that show, this is probably Agent or Value.
Best Casting
I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
Hamnet (in a notable miss) or Sirāt are out with I Swear and Supreme in. A likely Sinners trophy.
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
How I Did: 4/5
Frankenstein and not Hamnet in another interesting omission. I’ll note this is the only nom for Train Dreams as this should come down to Battle or Sinners.
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
How I Did: 4/5
Unlike Oscar, Wicked managed to get some BAFTA attention (albeit limited). I had Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and not Supreme (which had a solid day). Frankenstein may take this.
Best Editing
F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
Another Battle/Sinners race as F1 and Dynamite show up over Bugonia and (you guessed it) Hamnet.
Best Make Up and Hair
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
How I Did: 3/5
A strange quintet as Hamnet gets an unexpected mention as does Supreme and not One Battle or (more surprisingly) The Smashing Machine. This should go to Frankenstein.
Best Original Score
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Sinners is the frontrunner.
Best Production Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
I had Bugonia and Wicked instead of Marty and Battle. Another probable win for Frankenstein.
Best Sound
F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare
How I Did: 3/5
Frankenstein/Warfare over Avatar: Fire and Ash/Wicked. Think Sinners with F1 spoiler possibility.
Best Special Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus
How I Did: 4/5
Dragon, not Superman as Avatar is ahead.
Outstanding British Film
28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die, My Love, Hamnet, H is for Hawk, I Swear, Mr. Burton, Pillion, Steve
How I Did: 7/10
I went with Ballad of a Small Player, The Choral, and Warfare over Jones, Burton, and Steve. One would think Hamnet takes this though I Swear is viable as an upset pick.
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer
The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman
How I Did: 3/5
Ceremony/Want over Oceans with David Attenborough and Urchin. Pillion should win.
Best Children’s + Family Film
Arco, Boong, Lilo + Stitch, Zootopia 2
How I Did: 2/4
Grow and How to Train Your Dragon miss and not Boong and Lilo with Zootopia out front.
That works out to the following movies getting these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another
13 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominatons
Hamnet, Marty Supreme
8 Nominations
Frankenstein, Sentimental Value
5 Nominations
Bugonia, I Swear
3 Nominations
The Ballad of Wallis Island, F1, Pillion
2 Nominations
The Secret Agent, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Cover-Up, Blue Moon, Boong, The Ceremony, Die, My Love, Elio, H is for Hawk, A House of Dynamite, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Lilo & Stitch, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, Mr. Burton, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirāt, Song Sung Blue, Steve, Train Dreams, The Voice of Hind Rajab, A Want in Her, Warfare, Wasteman
The BAFTAs air February 22nd and you can expect a recap on the blog when that happens.
Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs (the British equivalent of the Oscars) are out tomorrow prior to the February 22nd ceremony hosted by Alan Cumming. Unlike previous years, BAFTA nods are hitting after the Academy’s picks which were out last week.
For a blogger who concentrates primarily on the Oscar derby, it makes this announcement a tad anticlimactic since I’m not weighing them against what I anticipate will occur on Oscar nom morning. Nevertheless I’m giving you my forecast for all feature-length races with an alternate named in each. For the directing and acting competitions, BAFTA goes with six nominees. For Outstanding British Film, it is ten. There are four in Animated Film and Children’s & Family Film. In all others (including Best Film), we’re talking five. Got all that? Good. Let’s get to it!
Best Film
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – Bugonia
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Alternate – Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajab
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Andrea Riseborough, Dragonfly
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Harry Melling, Pillion
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Alternate – Brenda Blethyn, Dragonfly
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Alexander Skarsgård, Pillion
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon
I Swear
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – It Was Just an Accident
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Pillion
Alternate – Train Dreams
Best Animated Film
Arco
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba– The Movie: Infinity Castle
KPop Demon Hunters
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Elio
Best Documentary
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Ocean with David Attenborough
The Perfect Neighbor
2000 Meters to Andrivka
Alternate – Becoming Led Zeppelin
Best Film Not in the English Language
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirāt
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Alternate – No Other Choice
Best Casting
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Sirāt
Alternate – Marty Supreme
Best Cinematography
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Alternate – Frankenstein
Best Costume Design
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Marty Supreme
Best Editing
Bugonia
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – F1
Best Make Up & Hair
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Bugonia
Best Original Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Marty Supreme
Best Production Design
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – One Battle After Another
Best Sound
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Best Special Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
The Lost Bus
Superman
Alternate – Wicked: For Good
Outstanding British Film
28 Years Later
Ballad of a Small Player
The Ballad of Wallis Island
The Choral
Die, My Love
Hamnet
H is for Hawk
I Swear
Pillion
Warfare
Alternate – Steve
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer
My Father’s Shadow
Ocean with David Attenborough
Pillion
Urchin
Wasteman
Alternate – The Ceremony
Best Children’s & Family Film
Arco
Grow
How to Train Your Dragon
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
That works out to these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another
13 Nominations
Hamnet, Sinners
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Pillion
4 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
2 Nominations
Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, F1, I Swear, Ocean with David Attenborough, Sirāt, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Ballad of a Small Player, The Ballad of Wallis Island, The Choral, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Die, My Love, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Dragonfly, Grow, H is for Hawk, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, KPop Demon Hunters, The Lost Bus, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, 28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Urchin, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Warfare, Wasteman, Weapons
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The first entry in the biggest race of all is Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos.
The Case for Bugonia:
The latest critically acclaimed multi-genre oddity from Yorgos Lanthimos made the Best Picture cut at the key precursors – Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Producers Guild. Oscar voters clearly like the filmmaker as this is his third feature up for BP (2019’s The Favourite, 2023’s Poor Things).
The Case Against Bugonia:
It has four total nominations. In addition to Picture, there’s Emma Stone in Actress, Adapted Screenplay, and Original Score. That’s tied with three other BP hopefuls for the fewest mentions. There have been no signature victories in previous ceremonies. With four nods, there’s obviously some notable misses including Lanthimos in Director and Jesse Plemons in Actor.
The Verdict:
The Favourite and Poor Things didn’t nab BP, but both of their leading ladies (Olivia Colman and Stone respectively) made podium walks and Things took home some tech prizes. Each of those contending features was in the top 5 of their top 10 BP class. Bugonia is in the bottom 5 and not really a threat to win anything on Oscar night.
My Case Of posts will continue with our second BP nominee, F1…
It has been nearly a month (!) since my last Oscar predictions on December 17th and a whole lotta activity has happened since. The Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards aired. SAG Actor noms and BAFTA long lists were unveiled. The Directors and Producers Guild gave us their contenders. And we arrive at my penultimate picks for the 98th Academy Awards. You can expect my final predictions on Sunday or Monday.
So what’s changed since the week before Christmas? Well, you have to read below for that!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)
12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Sirāt (PR: 13) (E)
14. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
15. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Oliver Laxe, Sirāt (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Clint Bentley, Train Dreams
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)
10. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-1)
8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
10. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Weapons (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-3)
10. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pillion (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Sirāt (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)
8. Belén (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The President’s Cake
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. Scarlet (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Endless Cookie (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-2)
10. DemonSlayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Seeds (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 10) (E)
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Sirāt (PR: 9) (E)
10. Weapons (PR: 10) (E)
Bst Cinematography
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sirāt (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)
10. F1 (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Sirāt
No Other Choice
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Kokuho (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Alto Knights (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sirāt (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Our Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Drive” from F1
“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Phoenician Scheme
Hedda
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sirāt (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)
10. Superman (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Superman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Bus (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilties:
6. Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Electric State (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another
13 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Frankenstein, Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams
3 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, Sirāt
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Nomination
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2
This week’s biggest announcement about the Oscars in general is that the telecast is moving to YouTube in 2029. The most notable development for the 98th ceremony was the release of the shortlists. There are several categories slimmed down from anywhere to 10-20 possibilities – International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, the new Casting race, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects.
We have winners and losers to discuss from those contenders. The Testament of Ann Lee was blanked and it was expected to show up in competitions like Cinematography and the musical fields. Jay Kelly underperformed. It made the list of 20 Score hopefuls, but it didn’t get into Casting (where I’ve had it predicted for a nomination). The Lee and Kelly struggles are enough for me to drop Amanda Seyfried (Lee) from my Actress five and Adam Sandler (Kelly) from my Supporting Actor quintet. Both could still make it, but I’m more skeptical. The beneficiaries are Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) as they return to their lineups. I am now also giving the 2nd Netflix BP slot to Train Dreams instead of Kelly. In Best Actor, however, I’m dropping Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams from my five in favor of Michael B. Jordanin Sinners.
On the other hand, Wicked: For Good landed 8 shortlist mentions (tying with Sinners). Does that help its chances for a BP nom where I dropped it out of my 10 six days ago? That’s arguable. I’d certainly say it doesn’t hurt and I toyed with putting it back in. As you’ll see, it’s almost there in 11th.
It was also a banner day for Sirât, the Spanish drama that landed a surprise 5 shortlist mentions. I’m not projecting it though the idea of the film getting a BP nod is not out of the question.
The other news earlier this week was the review embargo lifting for Avatar: Fire and Ash. For the most part, it is being called the weakest of the trilogy. I’d say its fortunes took a tumble in BP though it’s still in the conversation.
Let’s take a look at all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Train Dreams (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
14. No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)
15. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-1)
9. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Weapons (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nuremberg (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hedda (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sirât (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)
8. Belén (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Endless Cookie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Scarlet (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Boys Go to Jupiter
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Seeds (PR: 8) (E)
9. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk
Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Blue Moon
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hedda (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Snow White
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kokuho (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Alto Knights (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
28 Years Later
Weapons
Wolf Man
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 9) (+3)
7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Drive” from F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Warfare
The Testament of Ann Lee
Marty Supreme
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tron: Ares (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Electric State (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Mickey 17
How to Train Your Dragon
And that leaves these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sinners
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Frankenstein, Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent
3 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, Train Dreams
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Come See Me in the Good Light, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Nomination
Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2
There’s been a whole lotta precursor developments since my last Oscar predictions update on November 23rd. Critics groups are weighing in with their best-of choices, the review embargo for Marty Supreme lifted while the social embargo lapsed for the upcoming Avatar: Fire and Ash. Most importantly, the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe voters revealed their nominees along with the National Board of Review (NBR) and American Film Institute (AFI).
One thing seems certain in that One Battle After Another is the easy frontrunner for Best Picture. Is it a guaranteed victory? No, but it would have to encounter some bumps in the road for the narrative to change. That’s yet to happen.
At this juncture, I also think Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners are safe choices for BP inclusion. That leaves several pics vying for three slots. Will either of the big-budget sequels (Avatar: Fire and Ash, Wicked: For Good) make it? Can Jay Kelly recover after a noticeable Globes omission or is Train Dreams the other Netflix nominee along with Frankenstein? Will The Secret Agent make it three international contenders in the ten? Or could No Other Choice make it four? Or do Bugonia (which has been doing well in precursors) or The Testament of Ann Lee (which has been struggling in precursors) make the cut?
My mid-December snapshot of prognostication answers those questions… for now. The Secret Agent and Bugonia are now in my top 10 with the mega-sequels Wicked and Avatar falling out. I, perhaps stubbornly, am sticking with Jay Kelly in the lineup. I came very close to replacing it with Train Dreams.
In Best Actress, Cynthia Erivo’s work in Wicked drops in favor of Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You). In Actor, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) rises with George Clooney as Jay Kelly falling out of the contending quintet (even with the latter’s movie clinging to a BP nom). In Supporting Actor, Benicio del Toro jumps from 6th to 2nd and over his Battle costar Sean Penn. I still have both getting in with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) now on the outside looking in. Director and Supporting Actress remain the same with some movement in the rankings.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-3)
14. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out
Clint Bentley, Train Dreams
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)
7. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Is This Thing On?
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Hedda (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nuremberg (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sirât (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Belén (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (E)
9. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Lost in Starlight
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Seeds (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Orwell 2 +2 = 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Deaf President Now!
Cutting Through Rocks
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)
10. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rental Family
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)
9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. F1 (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)
9. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wicked: For Good
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Weapons (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 6) (-2)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sentimental Value
Wicked: For Good
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Bugonia
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Warfare (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)
3. F1 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (E)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (-1)
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
One Battle After Another
12 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Marty Supreme
8 Nominations
Frankenstein
7 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly
3 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2
The five Best Picture winners from this decade have all seen at least one of their cast members win an acting Oscar: Frances McDormand was Best Actress for 2020’s Nomadland, Troy Kotsur took Supporting Actor for 2021’s CODA, 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once boasted victories in Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), and Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. were the lead and supporting actor winners for Oppenheimer in 2023, and Mikey Madison was last year’s Actress recipient for Anora.
That’s why it felt strange not having any of the thespians from One Battle for Another listed at #1 in my possibilities. I’ve had the acclaimed Paul Thomas Anderson effort on top of my Best Picture projections for several weeks. Yet I’ve had Leonardo DiCaprio (Best Actor), Sean Penn (Supporting Actor), and Teyana Taylor (Supporting Actress) each listed 2nd behind my current frontrunners in those races.
Excellent arguments can be made for all three to be 1st in their fields. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see at least two Battle ensemble members take gold. Today I am elevating one of them to the top position and that’s Teyana Taylor. She takes the spot with Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) slipping to second. Frankly, this is less about Taylor and more about Wicked‘s so-so critical reaction when the embargo lifted on Monday.
I still have Wicked clinging to a BP nom and Cynthia Erivo managing an Actress nod – though I am less convinced that either will happen. You will see dips in other categories below and it appears unlikely to match the 10 nominations that its predecessor achieved. To be clear, Grande is still a threat to win. She was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) last time and there could be enough goodwill for the Good Witch to prevail.
In other developments, I am putting two performers in the supporting fields in for the first time! Amy Madigan’s costume inspiring Weapons work makes the quintet in Supporting Actress. This is partly due to confusion as to which Marty Supreme costar (Gwyneth Paltrow or Odessa A’Zion) is more viable. I basically have them canceling each other out to Madigan’s benefit.
Jacob Elordi’s monstrous performance in Frankenstein is also elevated with Battle‘s Benicio del Toro now on the outside looking in. I nearly dropped Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) but I hesitate to drop him with his costar George Clooney still in my Actor five.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (E)
13. Train Dreams (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)
15. No Other Choice (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wicked: For Good
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlet (PR: 6) (E)
7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lost in Starlight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ne Zha 2
Animal Farm
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Seeds (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Dead President Now! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tale of Silyan
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wolf Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Weapons (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (+1)
3. F1 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Warfare (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mickey 17 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (-1)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sinners
11 Nominations
Hamnet
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good
7 Nominations
Frankenstein
6 Nominations
Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, The Testament of Ann Lee, Train Dreams
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2
Blogger’s Update (11/05): Posting a significant update with Nuremberg and Die, My Love predicted openings at $3 million and $2.5 million, respectively.
After a frighteningly bad Halloween weekend that marked the worst box office frame of 2025, Predator: Badlands seeks to scare up decent business. We also have the boxing biopic Christy with Sydney Sweeney debuting and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
There’s no question that Predator: Badlands will easily be #1 though it has a wide range of possibilities. A worst case scenario might be high teens/low 20s with the rosiest performance nearing $40 million. I’m going mid to high 20s.
Christy could have benefited from better reviews and more awards speculation, but it should struggle to make the top 5.
On a side note, there’s two other wannabe Oscar contenders premiering: Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson in Die, My Love and the historical drama Nuremberg with Russell Crowe and Rami Malek. I’ve yet to see theater counts on either and both saw their awards prospects dim upon festival screenings. I will update my numbers if I feel one or both have a chance of breaking through.
As for holdovers, it could be a close race for #2 and I have Regretting You just edging current champ Black Phone 2. It could also be tight between Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc and Bugonia to round out the high five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Predator: Badlands
Predicted Gross: $27.6 million
2. Regretting You
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
3. Black Phone 2
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
4. Nuremberg
Predicted Gross: $3 million
5. Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
6. Bugonia
Predicted Gross: $2.7 million
7. Die, My Love
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million
8. Christy
Predicted Gross: $2.2 million
Box Office Results (October 31-November 2)
The worst Halloween weekend since 1993 is thanks to a dearth of new material with a likely assist by game 7 of the World Series on Saturday night. Black Phone 2 managed to return to 1st in its third outing with $8.3 million, on target with my $8 million call. The horror sequel has taken in $61 million so far.
Regretting You was close behind in second with $7.8 million, ahead of my $6.1 million prediction. The romantic drama stands at $27 million after two weeks.
Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc, after an unexpected #1 bow, fell an anticipated 66% to third with $6.2 million (I said $6.4 million). The ten-day tally is $30 million.
Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos and starring Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons didn’t exactly having bragging rights in fourth with $5 million. Yet it did easily eclipse my $2.8 million projection as it expanded nationwide. Counting its limited release the previous weekend, it’s made $6 million.
The 40th anniversary reissue of Back to the Future was fifth with $4.9 million compared to my $4.6 million guesstimate. The extra coin brought its overall domestic total to $221 million.
Finally, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere sank 58% in its sophomore go-round in sixth with $3.7 million, I was more generous at $4.8 million and the biopic has earned a mere $16 million.
It’s been three weeks (!) since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions, but there was prognosticating activity in the meantime. I did deep dives on Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups, you can find them here:
Now that November is here, there are some notable shifts with Frankenstein back in the BP top 10 and Bugonia falling out. In fact, I only have Bugonia getting a solo nod in Adapted Screenplay. Amanda Seyfried returns to the Actress quintet with Emma Stone dropping.
That’s better than Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which I have blanking on nomination morning. That means Jeremy Allen White is on the outside looking in with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) taking his spot. Jeremy Strong’s Supporting Actor work in Nowhere is nowhere in the top 5 with Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) elevating.
Only Director and Supporting Actress stay intact in the biggies while we see shifting #1’s in Production Design, Sound, and a different selected song for Wicked: For Good in the pole position. You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 10) (-1)
12. No Other Choice (PR: 12) (E)
13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+4)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)
8. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (E)
10. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. Is This Thing On? (PR: 6) (-3)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Song Song Blue
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sirât (PR: 7) (E)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Arco (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)
7. Scarlet (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters from Andrivka (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Seeds (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 6) (E)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
The Librarians
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. No Other Choice (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Weapons (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+4)
2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)
3. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Sinners (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Warfare (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-3)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (-1)
And that leaves the following movies receiving these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
One Battle After Another
12 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Hamnet, Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Marty Supreme
7 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent
1 Nominations
28 Years Later, 2000 Meter from Andrivka, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zooptopia 2
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