March 13-15 Box Office Predictions

Two new features vie for audience attention as romantic drama Reminders of Him and low-budget Canadian horror flick Undertone make their way to multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

It is highly unlikely that either comes close to bouncing Hoppers from a repeat performance in first. Reminders, based on a Colleen Hoover novel, should be second though I have it just topping $10 million for a subpar start.

I’m not expecting much from Undertone, but it could manage a 4th or 5th place showing considering The Bride! should plummet out of the top 5 after a dismal debut (more on that below).

Hoppers, as mentioned, should be #1 assuming a slide in the high 30s or low 40s with Scream 7 and Goat placing third and fourth.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. Hoppers

Predicted Gross: $27.2 million

2. Reminder of Him

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million

3. Scream 7

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

4. Undertone

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Goat

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

6. The Bride!

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (March 6-8)

Disney/Pixar had a commendable opening for an original title as Hoppers earned $45.3 million, slightly topping my $43.6 million prediction. That’s a cut above recent studio originals Elemental and Elio which both failed to reach $30 million in their unveilings.

Scream 7 was runner-up and dropped a severe 73% in weekend #2 to $17 million, under my $19.5 million call. The latest franchise entry is up to $93 million.

The Bride!, Maggie Gyllenhaal’s monster mash with Jessie Buckley and Christian Bale, failed to collect RSVPs with only $7 million in third. I projected more at $10.3 million. With a reported $85 million price tag, this is a costly dud for Warner Bros.

Goat was fourth with $6.4 million (I said $5.8 million) as the animated tale has amassed $83 million in four weeks.

Wuthering Heights rounded out the top five with $3.7 million, in range with my $3.4 million forecast. The period romance, in its fourth week, stands at $78 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 6-8 Box Office Predictions

Disney/Pixar looks to jump to the top of the box office charts with Hoppers while Warner Bros hopes moviegoers RSVP for The Bride!, Maggie Gyllenhaal’s take on The Bride of Frankenstein starring Jessie Buckley and Christian Bale. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Recent original Pixar titles (Elemental, Elio) have struggled out of the gate with openings below $30 million. With encouraging reviews, I suspect that won’t be the case with Hoppers and I’m going with a start in the mid 40s.

As for The Bride!, I am forecasting a subpar premiere barely topping $10 million. As I mentioned in my post, the second weekend of Scream 7 and especially similar subject matter being covered in Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein on Netflix could hinder this.

Speaking of Scream 7, it had a terrific debut (more on that below) that easily set a franchise record. The horror genre usually sees substantial declines in their second frames and I envision a mid to high 60s plummet for the latest adventures of Ghostface. Goat and Wuthering Heights should round out the top five.

Here’s I how I envision it shaking out:

1. Hoppers

Predicted Gross: $43.6 million

2. Scream 7

Predicted Gross: $19.5 million

3. The Bride!

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. Goat

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

5. Wuthering Heights

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (February 27-March 1)

As mentioned, Scream 7 had no trouble making loud noises at multiplexes with a series best $63.6 million, trouncing the $44 million that 2023 predecessor Scream VI pulled in. It also eclipsed my meager $47.6 million prediction for the best start yet in 2026.

Goat dropped to second with $12 million, down only 29% for a three-week tally of $73 million. I went a little lower at $10.8 million.

Wuthering Heights was third with $6.7 million (I said $6.9 million) and its three-week total is $72 million. The Margot Robbie-Jacob Elordi romance should fall a bit short of nine digits.

I did not have the rest of the high five being populated with music docs, but that was the result. Twenty One Pilots: More Than We Ever Imagined was fourth with $3.7 million. The King was fifth as EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert made $3.5 million to bring its earnings to nearly $8 million. Crime 101 was sixth with $3.7 million. I didn’t do a prediction for it and it’s made $30 million after three weeks.

I Can Only Imagine 2 fell a sharp 59% after a disappointing debut to $3.1 million in seventh. I forecasted a bit more at $4 million. The faith-based sequel stands at $13 million after ten days.

Send Help was eighth with $2.8 million (I went with $2.6 million) for a five-week gross of $59 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 27-March 1 Box Office Predictions

Scream 7 looks to easily slash all competitors as the only wide release this weekend. The horror pic will attempt to set a franchise best start and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on it here:

In order to reach that milestone, 7 will need to build upon the $44 million earned by VI back in 2023. I’m estimating that it will indeed do so.

The rest of the top 5 is poised to be filled with holdovers. Goat and Wuthering Heights should each slip a spot to 2nd and 3rd in their third frames.

I Can Only Imagine 2 came in with far less than I imagined (more on that below). Even with an A+ Cinemascore grade, it might still decline in the mid to high 40s for a fourth place showing. Send Help could stay in fifth with a smaller percentage drop than current #4 Crime 101.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:

1. Scream 7

Predicted Gross: $47.6 million

2. Goat

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

3. Wuthering Heights

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

4. I Can Only Imagine 2

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (February 20-22)

Animated Goat rose from 2nd to 1st in its sophomore outing with $16.8 million, a smidge past my $15.6 million prediction. The Sony sports tale has taken in $58 million thus far.

Wuthering Heights was second with $14 million, in range with my $13.2 million call. Falling a considerable 57%, Emerald Fennell’s doomed romance sits at $59 million after two weeks.

As mentioned, I Can Only Imagine 2 failed to bring in many fans of the 2018 original. It made $7.7 million, well below my generous $17.8 million forecast. That is less than half of what its predecessor made out of the gate.

Crime 101 plummeted 61% in weekend #2 with $5.5 million compared to my $7.1 million take. It has made $24 million overall.

Send Help rounded out the top 5 with $4.4 million (I said $4.8 million) for a four-week total of $55 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 20-22 Box Office Predictions

Faith-based sequel I Can Only Imagine 2 looks to top the charts as the weekend’s only significant wide release and stands an excellent shot at doing so. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:

The Lionsgate follow-up to the 2018 sleeper hit hopes to build upon the $17 million premiere that its predecessor made. I have it barely doing so though this will likely be more front-loaded than the original. That should be good enough to nab the #1 slot.

That might depend on the sophomore fall of the animated Goat which met and even slightly exceeded expectations over the long Valentine’s/President’s Day frame. I am confident its second weekend dip will be much smaller than that of current champ of Wuthering Heights (more on its performance below). Goat should stay in second with Heights falling to third.

Crime 101 might lose about half its crowd in weekend #2 with Send Help rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. I Can Only Imagine 2

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million

2. Goat

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

3. Wuthering Heights

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Crime 101

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

Box Office Results (February 13-16)

As anticipated, Emerald Fennell’s loose adaptation of Wuthering Heights with Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi managed to place first. However, I took the over on it and certainly should’ve went under. It opened below forecasts with $32.8 million from Friday to Sunday and $37.5 million when counting Monday. That’s well below my generous respective predictions of $55 million and $62.1 million. With a B Cinemascore grade, look for it to fade rather quickly. I have it declining in the 60% range this weekend.

Goat was runner-up with a $27.2 million 3-day and $35.1 million 4-day. That’s on target and a bit superior than my calls of $26.7 million and $30.4 million (it had a better Monday that I figured). The future looks bright with its A Cinemascore.

Crime 101 with Chris Hemsworth was a decent third at $14.2 million (Fri-Sun) and $16 million over the long frame. The thriller performed in range with my takes of $13.3 million and $15.2 million.

Sam Raimi’s Send Help was fourth after two weeks in 1st with $8.8 million (3-day) and $10.1 million (4-day), ahead of my $7.4 million and $8.2 million projections. The laudable three-week tally is $49 million.

Solo Mio with Kevin James had a sturdy hold in fifth with $6.3 million (3-day) and $7.2 million (4-day). I said $6.9 million and $7.5 million. The two-week total is $17 million.

Two other newcomers performed in line with and below my guesstimates. Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die from Gore Verbinski was 8th with $3.6 million (3-day) and $4.1 million (4-day) and I was right there at $3.5 million and $4 million.

Finally, horror comedy Cold Storage got a chilly reception in 14th with $966k from Fri-Sun and $1.1 million factoring in Monday. I was more hopeful at $1.7 million and $2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our second write-up among the Supporting Actor five is Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein. If you missed my post covering Benicio del Toro from One Battle After Another, you can find it here:

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Jacob Elordi:

The Aussie star of Euphoria and Saltburn (and currently #1 movie Wuthering Heights) entered the awards chat as The Monster in Guillermo del Toro’s passion project. He surprisingly nabbed a trophy at first major precursor Critics Choice and was nominated at the Globes and is awaiting word from BAFTA and SAG Actor.

The Case Against Jacob Elordi:

He lost the Globe to Sentimental Value‘s Stellan Skarsgård. All other nominees in the Academy quintet are veteran thespians and voters might think Elordi’s time could come later.

The Verdict:

At the time of this writing, it is definitely a mystery whether that Critics Choice podium trip was a fluke. It will become more clear if Elordi can manage to take BAFTA or SAG Actor. Both are possible and if takes either or both, his stock on Oscar night goes up.

My Case Of posts will continue with the second director in contention and that’s Ryan Coogler for Sinners

February 13-16 Box Office Predictions

In a weekend that includes Friday the 13th, Valentine’s Day, and President’s Day, Hollywood is hoping for luck, love, and a commanding amount of cash to wake up a sleepy box office. There are a handful of newcomers – romantic drama Wuthering Heights, animated sports tale Goat, action thriller Crime 101, sci-fi action comedy Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die, and horror comedy Cold Storage. Three of them are likely to hold the top 3 slots while the other two are unlikely to make the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:

Heights, Emerald Fennell’s loose adaptation of the Emily Brontë novel with Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi, appears poised to dominate with a hefty female crowd (many of whom could bring along their significant others). My forecast is even higher than most with a three-day estimate in the mid 50s and four-day in the lower 60s.

Goat has the potential to exceed my projection with a sizable family audience. My long weekend prediction of just over $30 million would put it firmly in second. If it truly rises above expectations, it could challenge Heights if that film fails to match where I have it reaching.

Crime 101 with Chris Hemsworth should get in the teens for a third place showing based on decent word-of-mouth and the opportunity to reach a male demographic.

As for Good Luck with Sam Rockwell and Storage with Joe Keery, I have both falling short of the top five. They will compete for some of the same patrons and I’m not confident either will make a notable impact. For Luck, I’m going with $3.5 million from Friday to Sunday and $4 million when counting Monday. As for Storage, I’m calling for less with $1.7 million (Friday to Sunday) and $2 million (Friday to Monday).

Holdovers often see minimal declines over this particular holiday weekend and I have Send Help and Solo Mio in fourth and fifth and holding up well.

Here’s how I envision it shaking out:

1. Wuthering Heights

Predicted Gross: $55 million (3-day); $62.1 million (4-day)

2. Goat

Predicted Gross: $26.7 million (3-day); $30.4 million (4-day)

3. Crime 101

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million (3-day); $15.2 million (4-day)

4. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (3-day); $8.2 million (4-day)

5. Solo Mio

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (3-day); $7.5 million (4-day)

Box Office Results (February 6-8)

Sam Raimi’s Send Help managed two weeks in a row atop the charts over a sluggish frame with $9 million, in range with my $8.6 million prediction. The critically appreciated black comedy has made $34 million in its ten days of release.

Solo Mio was second and sparked a welcome return for Kevin James after a decade long absence from headlining on the silver screen. The Angel Studios dramedy posted a better than anticipated $7 million, ahead of my $5.2 million take.

Video gamed based Iron Lung was third in its sophomore outing with $6.7 million (I said $7.1 million) for a two-week tally of $31 million.

Stray Kids: The DominATE Experience, a concert film centered on the South Korean boy band, placed fourth with $5.6 million. I did not do an estimate for it and therefore had it omitted from the top 5.

Same goes for Luc Besson’s Dracula which bit off $4.4 million for a fifth place start. I had it making $3.5 million and outside of the top half of the chart.

The Strangers – Chapter 3 flopped in seventh with $3.4 million, under my $4.5 million guesstimate. I should’ve switched projections for this one and Dracula.

Finally, I gave too much credit to Melania in its second weekend. The doc about the First Lady fell 67% to tenth place with $2.3 million. I was more generous at $4.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Wuthering Heights

Emerald Fennell’s loose interpretation of Emily Brontë’s nearly 180-year-old romance Wuthering Heights is out Friday and expected to do brisk business at the box office. Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi (currently up for Supporting Actor in Frankenstein) headline with Hong Chau, Shazad Latif, Alison Oliver, Martin Clunes, and Ewan Mitchell costarring.

Critical reaction is of the mixed variety with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 61 Metacritic. In 2020, Fennell’s debut Promising Young Woman landed five Oscar nominations – Picture, Director, Actress (Carey Mulligan), and Film Editing with a victory for the auteur in Original Screenplay. 2023 follow-up Saltburn drew reviews more in line with Heights and landed zero mentions by the Academy.

Fennell’s third feature might split the difference. I do not anticipate nods in the major races considering the more divisive word-of-mouth. It could, however, show up in down-the-line competitions like Costume Design (where inclusion seems likely), Production Design, or one of the original songs from Charli XCX. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Crime 101 Box Office Prediction

Thor, Storm, Hulk, and Joan Baez populate the cast of Bart Layton’s thriller Crime 101 out February 13th. Looking to serve as counterprogramming to Wuthering Heights and Goat during the Valentine’s/President’s Day long weekend, the Amazon MGM production stars Chris Hemsworth, Mark Ruffalo, Barry Keoghan, Monica Barbaro, Corey Hawkins, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Nick Nolte, and Halle Berry.

Originally slated for release last year, 101 is the type of project that just as easily could’ve premiered via streaming. A worst case scenario would be a debut below $10 million. However, movies tend to exceed expectations and not underwhelm during this particular weekend.

I am taking the over and projecting a three-day in the low teens with a couple million extra when counting Monday.

Crime 101 opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $15.2 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Wuthering Heights prediction, click here:

For my Goat prediction, click here:

For my Cold Storage prediction, click here:

For my Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die prediction, click here:

Wuthering Heights Box Office Prediction

Wuthering Heights (stylized as “Wuthering Heights”) looks to have a commanding #1 debut over a crowded President’s Day weekend beginning February 13th. Loosely adapting Emily Brontë’s 1847 novel, the tawdry romantic drama marks the third directorial of Emerald Fennel behind Promising Young Woman and Saltburn. Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi headline with a supporting cast including Hong Chau, Shazad Latif, Alison Oliver, Martin Clunes, and Ewan Mitchell.

This could be seen as Robbie’s first majorly visible role since her 2023 phenomenon Barbie. Last year’s A Big Bold Beautiful Journey was barely marketed by Sony with poor word-of-mouth and reviews. Elordi has been on viewers’ radar with his Oscar-nominated turn in Netflix’s Frankenstein.

With that star power, familiar source material, and encouraging buzz, I suspect Heights could climb above current forecasts which are already rosy. The shrewdly timed release with Valentine’s Day falling on a Saturday could guarantee a large female turnout and plenty may bring their mates along for the journey. I’m going with a three-day in the mid to high 50s and a low 60s four-day

Wuthering Heights opening weekend prediction: $55 million (Friday to Sunday); $62.1 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Goat prediction, click here:

For my Crime 101 prediction, click here:

For my Cold Storage prediction, click here:

For my Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die prediction, click here: