Tag: Wunmi Mosaku

98th Academy Awards: FINAL Winner Predictions

It is time to make my final predictions for the 98th Academy Awards airing Sunday evening with Conan O’Brien returning as host. The first word that comes to mind… ugh. This is tough. Not every category. Some are quite easy to forecast as is normally the case.

The ones that aren’t? I would say five of the top six competitions could go in different directions and that’s unique. As readers of my blog know, there are scores of individual write-ups talking about the Oscar chances of various films. There are multiple posts ranking the possibilities of pics, performers, directors, writers, and all kinds of crew members. It’s now time to put pencils down and write down my selections in pen for the 21 (now that Best Casting has joined the lineup) feature-length races.

Let’s get to it as I’ll select a winner and runner-up in each! And you can bet I’ll have a recap up Sunday night with reaction and how I did!

Best Picture

Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

This is a head vs. gut call. The head says One Battle After Another which has taken PGA, the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. That kind of combo would normally be undeniable in BP. Yet Sinners is more of the gut prediction. Having just won Best Ensemble at SAG Actor, Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale seems to be peaking at the right time as voters finalize ballots. The record haul of 16 noms is an obvious bonus.

I cannot stress enough how much of a coin flip this is. I may look foolish on Sunday by betting against the kind of hardware that Battle has achieved in the precursors. However, for several days, the momentum of Sinners has me leaning in its direction.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

2021 was the last year where there was a BP/Director split with CODA taking the grand prize and Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) winning Director. Mr. Anderson has swept the precursors including the Directors Guild of America (DGA) which rarely differs from Oscar. A better night for Sinners than even I’m projecting could cause Ryan Coogler to become the first African-American to make this particular podium trip. In this case, my head and gut say PTA.

WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

Someone other than Jessie Buckley had to win Actress in a Musical or Comedy at the Globes. That was Rose Byrne. Therefore she gets runner-up status. Make no mistake. Of the major categories, this is by far the easiest as Buckley has won everything else.

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

For a while, Critics Choice and Globe winner Timothée Chalamet was looking almost as certain as Buckley. BAFTA and SAG changed that dynamic and they are the last two precursors heading into Oscar voting. At the British ceremony, the not Academy nominated Robert Aramayo (I Swear) was triumphant. At SAG, it was Michael B. Jordan. There’s also Golden Globe Best Drama in a Drama recipient Wagner Moura. All three are viable. Heck there’s even prognosticators making arguments for DiCaprio and Hawke. This is an example where I’m ultimately buying the Sinners mojo though Chalamet still has a stronger shot than some are giving him credit for.

WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

This one has been all over the place. The Globe went to Teyana Taylor, Amy Madigan took Critics Choice and SAG Actor, and Wunmi Mosaku grabbed BAFTA. Madigan’s performance is so singularly memorable that a win makes plenty of sense. Like Actor, I’m going with where I think the winds are blowing.

WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Runner-Up: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Like Supporting Actress, a head scratcher. Critics Choice went to Jacob Elordi with Stellan Skarsgård getting the Globe. The latter seems more probable and, yes, Sinners love could extend to Lindo. BAFTA and SAG flipped the script by going with Sean Penn who would be picking up the rare third Oscar. This is a case where Battle has the late breaking momentum.

WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners

While most of the races above are tricky, the screenplay ones are not. Value stands the best chance at an upset but Sinners is the easy pick.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

Repeat everything I said for Original Screenplay and replace Battle for Sinners and Hamnet for Value.

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best International Feature Film

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

At one time, Accident was seen as a potential frontrunner. The competition has morphed to a showdown between Value and Agent. This could definitely go either way, but I’ll give the edge to Value achieving something with its nine nominations.

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: The Secret Agent

Best Animated Feature

Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

Zootopia 2 becoming 2025’s largest grossing blockbuster right as voting was occurring cannot hurt. It’s just hard to ignore the cultural juggernaut that KPop is.

WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: Zootopia 2

Best Documentary Feature

The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

This is a category capable of surprises and I could see Alabama, Good Light, and especially BAFTA winner Putin getting called up. Neighbor got lots of attention via its Netflix release and I’ll say the true crime doc squeaks through.

WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor

Runner-Up: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Best Casting

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners

The inaugural year of the Casting contest is consists of five BP nominees and I’m going with the one I’m seledting as the winner.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

Train Dreams has notched some precursors and is a real threat and the same logic certainly applies to Battle. Either could win. So could Sinners with that BP momentum. This is one I think Battle could manage to get and I’ll give it a slight edge over my BP selection

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners

While we’re still wondering what Avatar is doing here, this is one of three races that Frankenstein is likely to collect.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Film Editing

F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

F1 could zoom past the competition and Battle might be the safer bet. I’ll go with my BP pick for this one.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister

This is the second Frankenstein victory unless Sinners has a truly amazing evening.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Sinners is anticipated to emerge here rather easily.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

The Sinners tune could score the upset though “Golden” should be just that.

WINNER: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Frankenstein Oscar #3 expected with Sinners looming.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

One of the trickiest down the line categories as Sinners could absolutely prevail and a Sirāt upset is feasible. I do think the autotunes of F1 gets it by a nose.

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners

The first two Avatar flicks nabbed VE as should the third.

WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Runner-Up: F1

That equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of victories:

7 Wins

Sinners

4 Wins

One Battle After Another

3 Wins

Frankenstein

2 Wins

KPop Demon Hunters

1 Win

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Hamnet, The Perfect Neighbor, Sentimental Value

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our final entrant among the Supporting Actress nominees is Teyana Taylor in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. If you missed the previous posts in this race, you can access them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass in Sentimental Value
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Amy Madigan in Weapons
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Teyana Taylor:

The multi-faceted entertainer received raves as revolutionary Perfidia Beverly Hills in the potential BP winner. Taylor has been nominated in all key precursors and was victorious at the Golden Globes. That race has matched the Oscars in Supporting Actress for seven out of the past ten years. She joins costars Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro, and Sean Penn in vying for attention. While her screen time is limited, Taylor’s presence is felt throughout the film.

The Case Against Teyana Taylor:

Any momentum has been stalled since the Globes. Amy Madigan (Weapons) took Critics Choice and SAG Actor while Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) is the BAFTA recipient. Sean Penn has arguably emerged as the thespian most likely to take gold for PTA’s latest.

The Verdict:

Supporting Actress has no clear frontrunner. If Battle is your BP and Director victor, that increases the chances for Taylor to make a podium trip. There’s also no doubt that Madigan and Mosaku have strong cases.

My Case Of posts will continue with the final hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our fourth entrant among the Supporting Actress nominees is Wunmi Mosaku for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. If you missed the previous three write-ups in this race, you can access them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass in Sentimental Value
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Amy Madigan in Weapons

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Wunmi Mosaku:

With a showcase role as Hoodoo practitioner Annie in the most nominated Oscar movie of all time (16), Mosaku’s stock in the race shot through the roof with her BAFTA victory. Seven out of the last 10 winners at BAFTA have also picked up the Academy Award. If Sinners takes Best Picture, it stands to reason that an acting nominee will come along for the ride. She was additionally nominated at Critics Choice and the Actor Awards.

The Case Against Wunmi Mosaku:

BAFTA is Mosaku’s only major precursor podium trip. Amy Madigan (Weapons) took Critics Choice and most notably SAG Actor where 15 out of the last 16 winners have matched with Oscar. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) took the Globe where Mosaku wasn’t even nominated. The Academy can also honor Actor Award recipient Michael B. Jordan in Best Actor or Delroy Lindo in Supporting Actor as the Sinners cast member prize.

The Verdict:

Madigan, Mosaku, and Taylor all have decently compelling arguments for the gold statue and I’ll be going back and forth between them until final prediction time.

My Case Of posts will continue with the fourth performer in Supporting Actor – Sean Penn for One Battle After Another…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our fourth entry in the Best Actor derby is Michael B. Jordan playing the dual roles of Smoke and Stack in Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. If you missed my posts covering the first three leading men, they can be found here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Michael B. Jordan:

Last night’s Actor Awards where Jordan scored a minor upset victory after not winning previous precursors. Starring in one of two pics with a legit shot at Best Picture, Jordan’s win from the SAG branch comes at a crucial time when Academy members are actively voting. He was nominated everywhere else including at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. It doesn’t hurt that Sinners scored a record setting 16 noms in total.

The Case Against Michael B. Jordan:

He came up short to Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) at Critics Choice and lost to Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) at the Golden Globes. Both performers are very much still in the mix and major threats to take the prize. The voters have two other chances to honor the Sinners cast via Wunmi Mosaku and Delroy Lindo in their respective supporting fields.

The Verdict:

We don’t know if Jordan’s Actor award is the knockout blow he needed. There’s little question that it upped his chances considerably.

My Case Of posts will continue with Jordan’s costar Wunmi Mosaku for Supporting Actress…

32nd Actor Awards Reaction

Some Oscar categories may have become more solidified (Supporting Actor) while others remain unsettled (Actor and Supporting Actor and perhaps Best Picture) courtesy of tonight’s 32nd Actor Awards. Formerly known as SAG, Kristen Bell returned to host the Netflix aired ceremony where Sinners remained a viable alternative to One Battle After Another for Best Picture in two weeks.

It was the only film to take 2 prizes as I correctly called it for Best Ensemble. Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale did take an acting honor, but not the one I forecasted. In Best Actor, Michael B. Jordan is the winner over Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and this opens up the real possibility of him grabbing the Oscar. After Robert Aramayo (I Swear) took BAFTA, Chalamet is looking truly vulnerable.

On a night where I went 4 for 6, the other miss was projecting BAFTA victor Wunmi Mosaku’s work in Sinners for Supporting Actress. Instead the Screen Actors Guild went with Critics Choice winner Amy Madigan in Weapons. That race is legit looking like an open contest between Madigan (who now has 2 key precursors) and Mosaku and Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another).

Battle‘s Sean Penn is your Supporting Actor honoree and he’s grabbed 2 trophies in a row (BAFTA). I wouldn’t want to bet against him on Oscar night for what would be a third gold statue.

Jessie Buckley’s sweep continued in Best Actress for Hamnet. With all preceding ceremonies going her way, she is unquestionably the easiest acting derby to predict for the Academy.

In the Stunt Ensemble race, the voters predictably went with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.

From a pure precursor standpoint, Battle has won top honors at the Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and PGA. That mix is hard to deny. Yet late breaking momentum certainly makes Sinners the easy runner-up and a threat to be the Academy’s BP.

Stay tuned to the blog for final Oscar predictions in a few days!

32nd Actor Awards Winner Predictions

The ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards is now the Actor Awards and the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs Sunday, March 1st. Kristen Bell returns to host a show that is tough to predict, especially in the supporting fields where no frontrunner has emerged via the precursors. Will the Screen Actors Guild help make it clearer or muddy it up even more?

Let’s walk through the six movie races with my thoughts and a winner and runner-up projection. I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with initial thoughts and how I did.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Over the past 10 years, this ensemble award has matched the Academy’s Best Picture half the time
(Spotlight, Parasite, CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer). I would definitely say the two pics with a shot to win are Battle and Sinners, the two BP favorites. While the former may have an edge with the Academy, my hunch is that SAG goes with Ryan Coogler’s sprawling cast.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

This category has matched Oscar 6 out the last 10 years. Actress is the only competition where the possibility of a sweep is still open. Jessie Buckley has triumphed everywhere else and I see no compelling reason why this guild would change that.

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

The idea of a Chalamet sweep was halted when BAFTA unexpectedly rolled with Robert Aramayo in I Swear (who isn’t nominated here or at the Oscars). My hesitation to pick Chalamet has less to do with that and more to do with the fact he won SAG Actor last year for A Complete Unknown. I could see Hawke taking this prize for his showy role or the voters selecting Jordan. Ultimately I’m not pulling the trigger on the upset, but don’t discount the possibility. There is a 7 for 10 Actor/Oscar match over the past decade.

WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

Ugh… this is a tough one. There is no consistency among the precursors – Critics Choice went with Madigan, the Globes honored Taylor, and BAFTA picked Mosaku. One could certainly argue that Mosaku has the momentum and that if Sinners takes Best Ensemble, it increases the chances of a solo acting victory. Taylor could solidify her status as Oscar favorite with this award. This is essentially a three-way coin flip. Madigan could certainly emerge as this branch has shown the ability to honor the horror genre in a way the Academy doesn’t (see Demi Moore last year for The Substance). My gut says Sinners gets that one solo prize though I cannot stress enough that I almost went with Taylor. There is a 9 for 10 match with this branch and Oscar since 2015.

WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Miles Caton (Sinners), Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

There’s a 9 for 10 match here as well and this is just as wide open as Supporting Actress. Critics Choice called Elordi as their winner, Globes picked Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value (not nominated here), and BAFTA went with Sean Penn. In this case, I am going with the BAFTA momentum though his costar del Toro might pose the realest threat.

WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Tom Cruise’s franchise is known for stunts so I wouldn’t bet against it.

WINNER: Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Runner-Up: F1

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Delroy Lindo in Sinners

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Delroy Lindo is our third possibility in Supporting Actor for Sinners. If you missed my posts covering the first two, they can be accessed here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Delroy Lindo:

As Delta Slim in Ryan Coogler’s blockbuster, Lindo is a well-respected veteran in a movie that could win Best Picture. There is also a feeling that he was snubbed in 2020 for his lead work in Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods. Supporting Actor is wide open this year with different winners at the Globes (Stellan Skasgård in Sentimental Value), Critics Choice (Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein), and BAFTA (Sean Penn in One Battle After Another).

The Case Against Delroy Lindo:

Notice you don’t see his name as a recipient anywhere. In fact, you won’t because Lindo missed out on nominations at SAG, the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. It is extremely rare for someone to nominated (let alone win) without being up at any of those precursors. You have to go back to Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock 25 years ago to find the last one. The voters can honor the Sinners cast elsewhere via Michael B. Jordan and especially BAFTA winner Wunmi Mosaku.

The Verdict:

With the absence of noms everywhere else, logic would dictate that Lindo isn’t a threat to take gold. However, this Supporting Actor derby is unpredictable enough that I wouldn’t completely discount it. The chances increase if Sinners can pry BP away from One Battle.

My Case Of posts will continue with the third filmmaker contending for Best Director, Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme…

79th BAFTA Awards Reaction

I didn’t anticipate mentioning the 2000 feature Billy Elliot in my BAFTA recap covering 2025 pictures, but these voters are dancing to the beat of a different drum so here we are! That’s one surprise of several that developed at the British equivalent of the Academy Awards. It was not surprising that Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another led the way and (yes) won one BAFTA after another. However, the outcome of the acting races provided legit unexpected results and might have a hand in reshaping what happens at the 98th Oscars.

As far as results, I went 14 for 23 in my projections and 1 for 4 in the acting derbies. I correctly forecasted Best Film and Director BAFTAs for One Battle After Another and its maker Anderson. Same goes for its victories in Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography. It also took the Editing prize where I had F1.

In Supporting Actor, Battle‘s Sean Penn emerged in a field where I picked Stellan Skasgård as the winner and had Penn’s costar Benicio del Toro as the runner-up. We now have 3 different Supporting Actor victors in the three highest profiles precursors – Penn at BAFTA, Skarsgård at the Globes, and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) at Critics Choice. Let’s see what SAG Actor does next weekend as this race is wide open.

Battle did nothing but help its status as BP Oscar frontrunner. Yet Sinners didn’t take a significant hit. It won Original Screenplay and I went with Sentimental Value. I correctly picked it for Original Score.

In Supporting Actress, it represented a One Battle miss and a Sinners pickup. I went with Teyana Taylor, but Wunmi Mosaku lodged her first major recognition. Like Supporting Actor, we now have a trio of recipients among the precursors – Mosaku at BAFTA, Taylor at the Globes, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) at Critics Choice. Once again, SAG Actor will be closely viewed in another wide open acting derby. Simply put, I can’t remember the last time both supporting fields were this unpredictable.

That’s not the case in Actress where Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) predictably did a podium walk as her chances at a seasonal sweep are looking strong.

We will not be seeing a Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) sweep. I had him taking Actor with Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) as runner-up. BAFTA went their own way with Robert Aramayo (I Swear). He was additionally named the BAFTA Rising Star. Aramayo is not nominated at Oscar. The last time a BAFTA Best Actor wasn’t among the Academy’s quintet? That would be Jamie Bell in the title role of… you guessed it (!) Billy Elliot.

Here’s where I managed to get it right – Hamnet for Outstanding British Film and Sentimental Value having a subpar day with its sole win for Film Not in the English Language. I was correct in calling Zootopia 2 as Best Animated Film. Same goes for Frankenstein with the trio of Costume Design, Makeup & Hair, and Production Design and F1 in Sound and Avatar: Fire and Ash in Special Visual Effects.

Here’s where I whiffed. I will pat myself on the back for predicting The Perfect Neighbor would not be the documentary that BAFTA selected. Unfortunately I went with 2000 Meters to Andrivka and not Mr. Nobody Against Putin. Could it emerge as a spoiler to a Neighbor Oscar prize?

Pillion looked like the pick for Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer, but BAFTA chose My Father’s Shadow. Same with Children’s & Family Film where Zootopia 2 looked probable, but Boong was listed in the envelope. In Casting (always a tough race to project), I Swear emerged over Sentimental Value and my runner-up One Battle.

So what’s the biggest takeaway? I’d say the chaos occurring in the supporting competitions and that Battle vs. Sinners appears to still be a battle.

Today’s ceremony bestowed these numbers of wins for these movies:

6 Wins

One Battle After Another

3 Wins

Frankenstein, Sinners

2 Wins

Hamnet, I Swear

1 Win

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Boong, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, Sentimental Value, Zootopia 2

I’ll have winner predictions up for SAG Actor (happening a week from today) on the blog soon!

79th BAFTA Winner Predictions

The 79th BAFTAs (Britain’s version of the Academy Awards) occur this Sunday and they are often a reliable precursor to what Oscar voters will do. For example, they are 8 for 8 in the past two cycles in forecasting the acting races. On the flip side, in 2022, none of the four BAFTA acting recipients took the Oscar. The previous five cycles has seen the BAFTA Best Film match with Best Picture only twice (Nomadland, Oppenheimer). In 2021, the Brits honored The Power of the Dog over CODA (which wasn’t nominated). The following year it was All Quiet on the Western Front instead of Everything Everywhere All at Once. Last year, BAFTA selected Conclave and not Anora.

That’s why it’s very tempting to go with Hamnet over arguable frontrunners One Battle After Another and Sinners in the top competition. I almost did so, but ultimately decided with roll with Battle (with a low degree of confidence). Let’s walk through each race one by one with my winner projections and a runner-up.

Best Film

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Best Actor

Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)

WINNER: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Outstanding British Film

28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die My Love, H is for Hawk, Hamnet, I Swear, Mr Burton, Pillion, Steve

WINNER: Hamnet

Runner-Up: Pillion

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman

WINNER: Pillion

Runner-Up: My Father’s Shadow

Best Film Not in the English Language

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: The Secret Agent

Best Animated Film

Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

WINNER: Zootopia 2

Runner-Up: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Best Children’s & Family Film

Arco, Boong, Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2

WINNER: Zootopia 2

Runner-Up: Arco

Best Documentary

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

WINNER: 2000 Meters to Andrivka

Runner-Up: The Perfect Neighbor

Best Casting

I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Editing

F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Make Up & Hair

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Special Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus

WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Runner-Up: F1

That adds up to these movies generating numbers of victories:

5 Wins

One Battle After Another

4 Wins

Sentimental Value

3 Wins

Frankenstein

2 Wins

F1, Hamnet, Zootopia 2

1 Win

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Marty Supreme, Pillion, Sinners

I’ll have a recap up Sunday with how I performed and my thoughts on how it might impact the Oscars…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sinners

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten Best Picture contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the ninth candidate in BP and that’s Sinners from Ryan Coogler. If you missed my posts covering the previous nominees, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of The Secret Agent
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sentimental Value

The Case for Sinners:

The 16 (yes, sixteen) nominations for the vampire saga set a record. Even if the Academy had not added the new Casting race, it still would’ve set the all-time high as the previous best was 14 in a three-way tie between All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land. Besides Picture, it is up for Coogler’s direction and original screenplay, Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Supporting Actress (Wunmi Mosaku), Supporting Actor (Delroy Lindo), Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Sinners has seen BP nods at all important precursors including the Globes, PGA, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and best ensemble at SAG Actor. At $280 million in domestic earnings, it is easily the largest grosser of the 10 nominees.

The Case Against Sinners:

The movie with the most nominations has only taken BP three out of the past 10 shows (2017’s The Shape of Water, 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer in 2023). Sinners has yet to have a signature victory as Hamnet took Best Drama at the Globes and One Battle After Another was victorious at Critics Choice. The Academy has shown reluctance to honor horror flicks.

The Verdict:

The 16 nominations changed the dynamic from One Battle being seen as the fairly sturdy frontrunner to what’s now considered a legitimate showdown between Warner Bros properties. If Sinners takes this weekend’s DGA for its maker Coogler, look for this to become the favorite. If it doesn’t achieve that prize, it could still be honored with ensemble as SAG Actor and its momentum could result in Oscar glory. With all that said, Battle is still a strong competitor that may not be denied.

My Case Of posts will wrap up the BP hopefuls with Train Dreams…