Tag: Wonder

Oscar Predictions: Nonnas

Dramedy Nonnas is available for order on Netflix this weekend with Vince Vaughn as a new restauranteur attempting to honor the legacy of his mother. Susan Sarandon, Lorraine Bracco, Talia Shire, and Brenda Vaccaro are the title characters cooking the food. Linda Cardellini, Drea de Matteo, Joe Manganiello, Michael Rispoli, and Campbell Scott are also part of the ensemble. Stephen Chbosky, known for The Perks of Being a Wallflower and Wonder, directs.

Several critics are being kind and complimenting the Nonnas’ heart. Rotten Tomatoes (which probably aren’t available for consumption in the pic’s venue) is at 79% with a more lukewarm 57 Metacritic rating. So despite some reviews saying this is likable enough, this shouldn’t be on the menu for awards prognosticators. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

October 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (10/09): Based partly on its considerable 2500 screen count, I am upping my Terrifier 3 from $9.4 million to $14.4 million. That gives it the #1 slot.

A fascinating weekend lies ahead at the box office as a handful of newcomers try to break out, but they could all fall under $10 million. We have low-budget horror threequel Terrifier 3, behind the scenes showbiz dramedy Saturday Night (expanding in wide release), manga superhero entry My Hero Academia: You’re Next, the Pharrell Williams Lego themed doc Piece by Piece, and a Donald Trump biopic The Apprentice all vying for attention. You can peruse my prediction posts on them here:

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction
Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction
My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction
Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction
The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

This sophomore frame of October is one in which Joker: Folie à Deux was widely expected to dominate the charts for a second time. That is very much in danger after its disastrous premiere (more on that below). The musical mashup of Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga could experience a decline in 75% range considering its toxic word-of-mouth.

If so, that could mean a return to 1st position for The Wild Robot in its third outing. It may only dip in the high 30s or low 40s.

Terrifier 3 may have the best breakout potential among the newbies. I have it placing second just ahead of Joker. That’s a development that would’ve been unimaginable days ago.

I don’t foresee any of the fresh product reaching eight digits with Saturday Night in fourth and holdover Beetlejuice Beetlejuice rounding out the high five. The other three debuting flicks I have slotted 6-7 (Academia, Piece) and 9 (Apprentice) with Academia potentially having the chance for a little more than I’m projecting.

Here’s how I have it playing out with a top 8 this time around:

1. Terrifier 3

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million

2. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

3. Joker: Folie à Deux

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

4. Saturday Night

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

6. My Hero Academia: You’re Next

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

7. Piece by Piece

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

8. Transformers One

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

9. The Apprentice

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

Box Office Results (October 4-6)

Arriving 5 years to the day behind its billion plus grossing predecessor, Joker: Folie à Deux failed in spectacular fashion with critics and audiences. The sequel from Todd Phillips crashed with $37.6 million compared to my $54.3 million prediction. 2019’s original caught lightning in a bottle with a $96 million burst out of the gate (still the best October start in history) and 11 Oscar nominations. Deux could not measure up and that’s being kind considering it came in nearly $60 million lower. To add insult to injury, many reviews were brutal. Even worse, crowds gave it an awful D Cinemascore grade as they did not love this Joker.

The Wild Robot was second with $18.8 million, in line with my $19.8 million take. DreamWorks Animation’s potential frontrunner for Best Animated Feature has grossed $64 million in ten days as it eyes a potential return to #1 this weekend.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was third at $10.1 million, a bit under my $11.6 million estimate for a five-week haul of $265 million.

Transformers One held up decently in fourth with $5.3 million (I said $4.4 million). The $47 million three-week total is nothing to brag about.

Speak No Evil rounded out the top five with $2.7 million compared to my $3.2 million projection. In four weeks, it’s made $32 million.

Finally, Lionsgate had another turkey on their hands with Wonder prequel White Bird. It was seventh with $1.5 million. My guess? $1.5 million!

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

October 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (10/03): With the announcement that White Bird is only hitting just over 1000 screens, I’m downgrading my prediction from $3.1 million to $1.5 million

Warner Bros hopes Joker: Folie à Deux can approach the gargantuan grosses that its predecessor earned five years ago while Lionsgate has the long delayed Wonder prequel White Bird out this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Joker: Folie à Deux Box Office Prediction
White Bird Box Office Prediction

A half decade ago, Joker rode a wave of sizzling buzz to a $96 million debut (the best October start of all time), a $335 eventual domestic gross, and an Oscar statue for Joaquin Phoenix. With Lady Gaga joining the mayhem as Harley Quinn, word-of-mouth is more mixed for part Deux and it likely won’t achieve the hotshot premiere of part un. While my mid 50s forecast easily has it topping the charts, that’s over $40 million less out of the gate.

As for White Bird, I expect it to be another significant under performer for distributor Lionsgate who just saw Megalopolis crash and burn (more on that below). My number for Bird puts it just outside the top five.

As for holdovers, The Wild Robot might see a mid to high 40s decline after its solid beginning while Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Speak No Evil‘s percentage dips should be smaller. The highest plummet in the top 5 (same as this past frame) should belong to Transformers One.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Joker: Folie à Deux

Predicted Gross: $54.3 million

2. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

4. Transformers One

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Speak No Evil

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (September 27-29)

DreamWorks Animation’s The Wild Robot, with fresh reviews and an A Cinemascore grade, performed impressively with $35.7 million. That’s just ahead of my $33.8 million take and it should play well throughout the next few weeks.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, after three weeks in 1st, slid to second with $16.2 million. That’s a mere 37% decline and beyond my $14.8 million prediction. The sequel has amassed $250 million in four weeks.

The news was more distressing for Transformers One as it plummeted 63% in its sophomore frame to $9.1 million. I was more generous at $11.5 million as Hasbro’s latest underwhelming franchise entry has taken in $39 million in ten days.

Epic Indian Telugu-language action flick Devara: Part 1 opened in fourth with $5.6 million with the second best per screen average in the top 10. I incorrectly had it outside the high five.

Speak No Evil was fifth with $4.2 million (I said $3.4 million). The thriller sits at $28 million after three weeks.

Finally, Francis Ford Coppola’s self-financed Megalopolis (with a reported $120 million price tag) could not overcome mostly middling reviews and audience ambivalence. It was sixth with $4 million compared to my $4.7 million call. With a D+ Cinemascore, I suspect this falls over 65% in its second weekend. Ouch.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

White Bird Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (10/03): With the announcement that White Bird is only hitting just over 1000 screens, I’m downgrading my prediction from $3.1 million to $1.5 million

White Bird at last flies into theaters after significant delays on October 4th. The period drama is a prequel to 2017’s blockbuster Wonder. Like that hit, it’s based on source material from R.J. Palacio. Marc Forster directs and the cast includes Ariella Glaser, Orlando Schwerdt, Bryce Gheisar, Gillian Anderson, and Helen Mirren.

Lionsgate originally was slated to release Bird in September 2022 and then in summer 2023 before finally landing on this date. The distributor has seemingly been conducting a yard sale of flops over the past several weeks such as Borderlands, The Crow, The Killer’s Game, Never Let Go, and Megalopolis.

I don’t see White Bird reversing the trend. Wonder was seven years ago, but a bigger problem might be that audiences aren’t aware of the prequel’s existence. Like the aforementioned features, hitting $5 million out of the gate might be a challenge.

White Bird opening weekend prediction: $1.5 million

For my Joker: Folie à Deux prediction, click here:

Joker: Folie à Deux Box Office Prediction

Dear Evan Hansen Box Office Prediction

The film adaptation of the Tony Award winning musical drama Dear Evan Hansen hits theaters September 24. Directed by Stephen Chbosky (who made the 2012’s acclaimed indie The Perks of Being a Wallflower and 2017’s blockbuster Wonder), Hansen recasts Ben Platt in the title role. The supporting cast features Amy Adams, Julianne Moore, Kaitlyn Dever, and Amandla Stenberg.

Premiering at the Toronto Film Festival, the cinematic version has not garnered the same kudos that it did on Broadway. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 47% and many are griping about Platt (now in his late 20s) portraying a high schooler.

I might be a little more optimistic if Hansen had Oscar vibes going for it, but that’s been silenced by the critics. That said, there is a built-in audience familiar with the play and that could help. The same could have been said for this summer’s In the Heights, which majorly underperformed.

My projection is that this doesn’t quite reach double digits.

Dear Evan Hansen opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million

Oscar Predictions: Dear Evan Hansen

Ben Platt has won a Tony, Emmy, and Grammy for his performance in the Broadway sensation Dear Evan Hansen. The cinematic version of the play comes from director Stephen Chbosky, best known for 2012’s acclaimed The Perks of Being a Wallflower and 2017’s hit Wonder. 

Hansen has opened the Toronto Film Festival with Platt reprising his role. Costars include Amy Adams, Julianne Moore, and Kaitlyn Dever. The teen musical drama (where the 27-year-old Platt is a teen) is drawing wildly mixed reactions from critics – as evidence by its current 50% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Some are being kind while others are excoriating it.

That’s not a recipe for Oscars attention as I see it. Simply stated, its detractors should be loud enough to keep this out of contention. One possible exception could be a couple of original songs.

Bottom line: Platt’s EGOT is highly unlikely to happen with Hansen. My Oscar prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Good Boys Movie Review

Yes, there’s an apt comparison to be made between Good Boys and 2007’s Superbad. This is kind of the middle school version of that movie from over a decade ago. Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg wrote the latter and they serve as producers here. Both involve young boys with their dirty minds trying to make it to a party that they view as potentially life changing (all events are greatly elevated in status at these ages).

What both get right is portraying the naïveté of their central characters. They may talk a good game in their minds, but there’s a whole lot about sex and drugs that they simply don’t understand yet. There’s inherent humor in that. Plenty of raunchy youth comedies are simply in it for the gross out humor. Another layer exists here and it’s one of sweetness to occasionally balance out the R rated aspects.

Max (Jacob Tremblay), Lucas (Keith L. Williams), and Thor (Brady Noon) have just entered the wild world of middle school. Their curiosity level when it comes to girls, beer, and after school get togethers is in peak form. They christen themselves The Beanbag Boys since a good chunk of their lives are spent playing games and conversing while sitting on them. Max has a crush on a fellow student and might have an opportunity to make his move at a party that the cool kids invite him to. Thor is more interested in excelling at the school musical (an ill conceived pint size rendering of Rock of Ages), but struggles with that since the cool kids don’t think that’s cool. Lucas has a happy life that’s disrupted by parental divorce. He’s unlikely to ever be the cool kid and doesn’t quite know that yet.

The boys friendship is tested over a long day where they skip school, steal Max’s dad’s fancy drone, and turn into amateur ecstasy dealers so they don’t get in deeper trouble (it all makes sense in context). The laugh ratio here is pretty high as the trio must learn about kissing (the porn sites they go don’t help much) and dealing with college kids to score drugs.

Tremblay is the famous kid of the bunch as he’s known for his impressive serious work in Room and Wonder. He gets to drop some F bombs for the first time and he looks precocious doing it. I would say it’s Williams, however, that shines the brightest. The couple scenes with his splitting parents are comedic highlights. They display what makes Good Boys work best. It’s funny, but with an undertone of these kids learning the real world for the first time. Like Superbad, the central figures come to discover life will exist beyond their childhood friendships. It takes plenty of crass jokes to get them there, but those gags work more often than they don’t.

*** (out of four)

Good Boys Box Office Prediction

Good Boys is looking to become this summer’s Superbad when the raunchy comedy debuts next weekend. Marking the directorial debut of Gene Stupnitsky, the film centers on three preteens doing R rated shenanigans. The kids are played by Jacob Tremblay of Room and Wonder fame, as well as unknowns Keith L. Williams and Brady Noon. Costars include Will Forte, Molly Gordon, and Lil Rel Howery.

Keeping with the Superbad theme, Boys comes from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg’s production company, who wrote that 2007 hit. The pic was first unveiled in March at the South by Southwest Festival to positive reaction. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 78%.

That said, the buzz for this doesn’t seem as high. The chance for this to over perform is there. Yet I’m skeptical this earns half of the $33 million achieved by Superbad, which premiered over the same late summer weekend a dozen years ago. In fact, its debut might be in the preteens just like its stars.

Good Boys opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million

For my The Angry Birds Movie 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/06/the-angry-birds-movie-2-box-office-prediction/

For my 47 Meters Down: Uncaged prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/08/47-meters-down-uncaged-box-office-prediction/

For my Blinded by the Light prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/11/blinded-by-the-light-box-office-prediction/

For my Where’d You Go, Bernadette prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/11/whered-you-go-bernadette-box-office-prediction/

The Predator Box Office Prediction

Over three decades ago, Shane Black costarred in the classic sci-fi adventure tale Predator. Like most cast members, he didn’t manage to survive the proceedings like Arnold Schwarzenegger did. He did go on to an impressive writing and directing career that includes the screenplays for Lethal Weapon, The Last Boy Scout, and The Long Kiss Goodnight and serving double duty for Kiss Kiss Bang Bang, Iron Man 3, and The Nice Guys. Things come full circle next weekend for Black as he directs and co-writes The Predator, the latest iteration of the long running franchise.

Not counting the two Alien vs. Predator extravaganzas, this is the fourth traditional entry in the series behind the 1987’s original, its 1990 sequel, and the 2010 reboot Predators. Boyd Holbrook, Trevante Rhodes, Wonder star Jacob Tremblay, Keegan-Michael Key, Olivia Munn, Sterling K. Brown, and Thomas Jane populate the human troupe battling the deadly creatures.

It’s actually the first teaming of this franchise with the Alien series that resulted in the largest debut featuring the title character in 2004 – to the tune of a $38.2 million. Predators set the high mark over parts 1 and 2 (due to inflation) with a $24.7 million start. Its overall gross was very front-loaded as it ended up with $52 million.

The eight year inflation should allow The Predator to exceed that, but I don’t see it coming close to the high 30s number that AVP achieved. I would say high 20s is the more reasonable expectation and that should allow it to place #1 at the box office (something Predators couldn’t manage in the heat of significant summer competition). As a comp for 2018, I’ve got this earning a similar debut to this spring’s Pacific Rim Uprising. 

The Predator opening weekend prediction: $27.4 million

For my A Simple Favor prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/a-simple-favor-box-office-prediction/

For my White Boy Rick prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/06/white-boy-rick-box-office-prediction/

For my Unbroken: Path to Redemption prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/06/unbroken-path-to-redemption-box-office-prediction/

The Oscars Go “Popular”: An Analysis

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences dropped a rather big bombshell today with some announced changes to their Oscar telecast. First off, they’re claiming the show will now be just three hours (I’ll believe it when I see it). Additionally, some categories (I imagine numerous tech ones) will be announced live during commercial breaks and then edited into the show later. This probably won’t make the individuals in those races happy, but it should speed up the program.

However, the most noticeable and interesting change is the addition of a new category (something the Academy rarely does). The addition is described as “Outstanding Achievement in Popular Film”. No other details have been provided, but this would appear to be an attempt by the Academy to include blockbusters that haven’t made the cut in Best Picture.

So what does that mean? What is the criteria? That was not announced today and it will be fascinating to see what such criteria is. Could it be a particular gross… say over $100 million domestically? Could it be the number of the theaters a movie is released in? Time will tell and hopefully these details will be revealed shortly. It isn’t even immediately clear that these changes will all be in effect for the 2019 telecast, but I imagine they will be.

Even though nothing is totally clear at press time, that won’t stop me from speculating and asking, “What if this category had been in effect in previous years?”

Before that, let’s start with this year. If there is a Best Popular Film category in 2018, that greatly increases the chances of Marvel’s Black Panther and horror smash A Quiet Place getting nods. There’s also Mission: Impossible – Fallout (the most acclaimed entry in the franchise) or perhaps Avengers: Infinity War. Pixar will certainly see Incredibles 2 nominated in Best Animated Feature, but it could make a play here as well. And we still have fall releases like Mary Poppins Returns and A Star Is Born out there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifoFercJX2I

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_RlYk5y7z4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI8he-IbolA

There will be plenty of speculation as to whether Black Panther will be the first superhero pic to nab a Best Picture nomination. There is little doubt it would be recognized in this new category.

It’s been discussed on this blog previously about the 2008 Oscars which omitted The Dark Knight in the Best Picture derby. That development was likely responsible for the Academy changing its rule of five nominated films to anywhere between five and ten. Yet it would appear the Academy still isn’t satisfied with major hits being included.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssA_l5t-o7o

Let’s consider last year. Of the nine Best Picture nominees, only two grossed over $100 million – Get Out and Dunkirk. If the Popular Film category had existed a year ago, I imagine both features would have achieved double nominations. Assuming this new category contains five nominees (something not revealed yet), what would the other three have been? There’s plenty of blockbusters to choose from: Beauty and the Beast, Wonder Woman, It, Logan, Coco, The Greatest Showman, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder, and Baby Driver. 

Here’s my best guess of what a Best Popular Film slate would have looked like in 2017:

Dunkirk, Get Out, Logan, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman

And I’m thinking Get Out would have won.

In 2016, you might have seen Deadpool and The Jungle Book as Popular picks.

In 2015, there could have been room for Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Straight Outta Compton.

2014? Perhaps Guardians of the Galaxy and Gone Girl. 

Heck, let’s go way back. Would Jurassic Park have won Best Popular Film in 1993? I don’t think so. I bet it would have gone to The Fugitive, which nabbed an actual Best Picture nomination.

Of course, there would have been years where Best Picture and Best Popular Film match. 1994 with Forrest Gump. 1997’s Titanic. 2000’s Gladiator. Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in 2003.

Back to today. I would say this new category seems tailor-made for Black Panther. Does that mean its chances for a Best Picture nod are now diminished because voters figure it runs away with this? Perhaps. And that’s why I’m not too wild about this change at the moment. This has the potential to look like a desperate play by the Academy. At the least, it’s an acknowledgment that audience favorites and Academy favorites don’t often match.

That said, let’s see what the criteria is and I’ll judge from there. It’s a new era at the Oscars… one where Bumblebee stands a shot (however remote) at Oscar glory!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZ6Q1B6x3p0