The Critics’ Choice Awards are one of the more reliable precursors when it comes to movies and actors who might receive Oscar nominations. Hopefuls will hear their names called tomorrow for the 29th annual ceremony.
This show can sometimes be unpredictable with how many nominees there will be in each race. Last year there were 11 in Picture, 10 in Director, and 6 for others. I’ll project 10 in Pic and Director and go with six in the remainder of the derbies (and an alternate), but don’t be surprised if they alter the formula.
Let’s get to it!
Picture
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
May December
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: The Color Purple
Director
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Todd Haynes, May December
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Alternate: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternate: Natalie Portman, May December
Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Alternate: Colman Domingo, Rustin
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Julianne Moore, May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Alternate: Jodie Foster, Nyad
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Alternate: John Magaro, Past Lives
Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
May December
Past Lives
Saltburn
Alternate: Maestro
Adapted Screenplay
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Foreign Language Film
Anatomy of a Fall
Monster
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Taste of Things
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Fallen Leaves
Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Alternate: Wish
Cinematography
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Costume Design
Barbie
Chevalier
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Priscilla
Alternate: Oppenheimer
Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Alternate: The Holdovers
Makeup
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Maestro
Nyad
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Alternate: Oppenheimer
Production Design
Asteroid City
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: Maestro
Score
Elemental
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: The Boy and the Heron
Song
“Dance the Night” from Barbie
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives
“Road to Freedom” from Rustin
“This Wish” from Wish
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Visual Effects
The Creator
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: Napoleon
Ensemble
Air
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Alternate: The Color Purple
Comedy
American Fiction
Asteroid City
Barbie
Joy Ride
The Holdovers
No Hard Feelings
Alternate: Bottoms
Young Actor/Actress
Joe Bird, Talk to Me
Andrew Barth Feldman, No Hard Feelings
Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Ariana Greenblatt, Barbie
Milo Machado-Graner, Anatomy of a Fall
Violet McGraw, M3GAN
Alternate: Iman Vellani, The Marvels
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Barbie, Poor Things
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
7 Nominations
Maestro, Past Lives
6 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers
5 Nominations
May December
4 Nominations
American Fiction, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
3 Nominations
The Color Purple, Saltburn
2 Nominations
All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Asteroid City, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, No Hard Feelings, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
1 Nomination
Air, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Ferrari, Godzilla Minus One, Joy Ride, The Killer, M3GAN, Monster, Nimona, Nyad, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Talk to Me, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Wish
Nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards (airing January 7th) were unveiled this morning. As always, there were some surprises and it was a particularly weak day for one hopeful. That said, a lot of what transpired went according to plan. I went 74 for 92 on my picks (I’ll take it!).
Let’s walk through each race with how I did and my initial take on who or what may emerge victorious.
Best Motion Picture Drama
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
Nailed the Drama category as this probably will come down to Oppenheimer vs. Killers.
Best Motion Picture Musical/Comedy
Nominees: Air, American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, May December, Poor Things
How I Did: 5/6
In what might be the most surprising omission of the morning, The Color Purple didn’t make the cut. I (along with everyone else) had it in. I didn’t have Air though it was my alternate. Barbie is the frontrunner though Poor Things is viable.
Best Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Celine Song (Past Lives)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
Just as in Motion Picture Drama, Nolan vs. Scorsese might be the showdown with Gerwig as a potential spoiler.
Best Actress Drama
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
I wouldn’t discount Hüller or Mulligan as slight upset picks, but Gladstone looks to be the favorite.
Best Actor Drama
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
Like the Oscar race, this could end up as a contest between Cooper vs. Murphy.
Best Actress Musical/Comedy
Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Jennifer Lawrence (No Hard Feelings), Natalie Portman (May December), Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
How I Did: 4/6
Pöysti is an out of nowhere selection while Lawrence was my alternate. They get in over Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (You Hurt My Feelings). This is either Stone (probably) or Robbie (maybe).
Best Actor Musical/Comedy
Nominee: Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario), Timothee Chalamet (Wonka), Matt Damon (Air), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Joaquin Phoenix (Beau Is Afraid), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
How I Did: 5/6
Phoenix in over Gael Garcia Bernal for Cassandro. Wright has a shot, but this is Giamatti’s category to lose in my view.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 5/6
I would’ve picked Brooks as the likely winner until Purple‘s poor performance today. Now I think this acting race, perhaps more than any other, is wide open. I had Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) in instead of Pike.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
How I Did: 5/6
Had Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) and not Dafoe. Downey Jr. is the probable selection though I wouldn’t discount Gosling or Melton.
Best Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/6
I did not have Anatomy or Past Lives. Their inclusion is by no means shocking, but I am genuinely surprised The Holdovers did not make the list (neither did American Fiction). This is another race where the voters could go several directions with Barbie perhaps having an ever so slight edge.
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One, Oppenheimer, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
How I Did: 7/8
This new category can correctly be called the “Barbenheimer” award or the “Let’s Get Taylor Swift To The Ceremony Trophy”. I didn’t have Reckoning and instead had Elemental. Hard to imagine this not going to Barbie.
Best Non-English Motion Picture
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, Io Capitano, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 3/6
Here’s where I screwed up. Didn’t have Leaves, Capitano, or Past Lives (which is considered non-English for some reason here). Instead I had Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, and The Teachers’ Lounge. This should come down to Anatomy vs. Zone and I’m currently expecting the former to emerge.
Best Animated Motion Picture
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Suzume, Wish
How I Did: 4/6
Suzume and Wish get in over Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget and Nimona. Some others were blindsided that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem didn’t make it. Boy vs. Spidey is the showdown.
Best Original Score
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 5/6
Zone makes the derby instead of Nyad. This should be Oppenheimer.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me, “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
How I Did: 3/6
Well, I got half and those were the Barbie tracks. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple, and “A World of Your Own” from Wonka were my picks instead of “Addicted to Romance” (which could mean Bruce Springsteen shows up), “Peaches”, and “Road to Freedom”. I’d say “What Was I Made For?” or “I’m Just Ken” win.
And there you have it. I’ll have final predictions for the Globes up shortly before airtime. Keep an eye on the blog for all things Oscar!
My first Oscar predictions for the month of December comes on the eve of Golden Globe nominations and days after NBR and AFI revealed their best of for 2023.
There is a change in BP as American Fiction is back in with Anatomy of a Fall out. In Best Actress, Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) reaches the #1 spot. She overtakes Emma Stone in Poor Things who has held the position for several weeks. Gladstone’s rise happens as her costars Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro slip a little in their categories. Also in Best Actress, Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to the quintet at the expense of Fantasia Barrino in The Color Purple. In Actor, Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) is in over Colman Domingo (Rustin).
Another development worthy of discussion is Visual Effects. Earlier this week, the top 20 hopefuls were announced and Oppenheimer was nowhere to be found. I’d previously had it ranked #1 in the race, but it drops from contention.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Maestro (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)
9. American Fiction (PR: 11) (+2)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (-1)
12. May December (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. Air (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All of Us Strangers
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-3)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Viola Davis, Air
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4 (E)
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Colman Domingo, The Color Purple
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rustin
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-1)
7. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 10) (+3)
8. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tótem (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feautre
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elemental (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-5)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)
5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (-3)
7. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Joan Still” from Theater Camp
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wonka (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ferrari (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Godzilla Minus One (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Oppenheimer
Society of the Snow
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
3 Nominations
American Fiction, Past Lives
2 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret,Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Nimona, Nyad, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish
Prior to its January 7th airing on CBS and Paramount+, nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards are out Monday, December 11th. After years of airing on NBC, the ceremony has found a new home after the controversies of the last few years involving the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.
That’s not the only change with the program. The categories we are used to have expanded from five to six nominees. And a new competition – Cinematic and Box Office Achievement – comes with eight contenders. We could safely coin this the “Barbenheimer” race unless Taylor Swift has something to say about that.
As always, there’s some controversy in the differentiation between Drama and Musical/Comedy placements. Netflix decided to campaign Todd Haynes’s May December in the latter even though Drama seems more appropriate. It could help it get more noms.
Here we go with my picks in each cinematic derby and I’ll give you an alternate with each.
Motion Picture (Drama)
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Saltburn
Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
May December
Poor Things
Alternate: Air
Film Director
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Actress (Film Drama)
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Cailee Spaney, Priscilla
Alternate: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
Actor (Film Drama)
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Alternate: Zac Efron, The Iron Claw
Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, You Hurt My Feelings
Natalie Portman, May December
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings
Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Gael Garcia Bernal, Cassandro
Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario
Timothee Chalamet, Wonka
Matt Damon, Air
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Alternate: Jamie Foxx, The Burial
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Julianne Moore, May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Alternate: Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Supporting Actor
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Alternate: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Best Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: May December
Cinematic and Box Office Achievment
Barbie
Elemental
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
John Wick: Chapter 4
Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Alternate: The Little Mermaid
Motion Picture (Non-English Language)
Anatomy of a Fall
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Taste of Things
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: The Promised Land
Motion Picture (Animated)
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Nimona
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Alternate: Wish
Original Score
The Boy and the Heron
Killers of the Flower Moon
Nyad
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Elemental
Original Song
“Dance the Night” from Barbie
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
“Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“A World of Your Own” from Wonka
Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
9 Nominations
Barbie
8 Nominations
Oppenheimer
7 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
6 Nominations
Poor Things
5 Nominations
The Color Purple, The Holdovers
4 Nominations
Maestro, May December
3 Nominations
American Fiction, Nyad, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2 Nominations
The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Wonka, The Zone of Interest
1 Nomination
Air, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Cassandro, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Dream Scenario, Flamin’ Hot, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rustin, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, The Teachers’ Lounge, You Hurt My Feelings
Blogger’s Update (12/06): It appears The Boy and the Heron is opening on approximately 2100 screens. That is more than I assumed and my estimate rises from $3.8 million to $8 million. I’m also lowering my Renaissance prediction from $8.9M to $7.6M and raising my Hunger Games estimates from $7.8M to $8.6M. This dramatically alters my previous top five.
Before some high profile holiday releases are unwrapped, it should be a quiet weekend at the box office as Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron is the only significant newcomer. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
We may not see any picture top $10 million in this sleepy frame. Beyoncé may manage to rule the charts for a second time even though I have Renaissance having a sophomore slide in the high 50s. A gross approaching $9 million should keep it ahead of The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (which should fall in the mid 40s).
After an impressive debut, Godzilla Minus One should stay in third with Trolls Band Together remaining in fourth. I have Heron rounding out the top five, just ahead of Disney’s dud Wish.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
2. The Boy and the Heron
Predicted Gross: $8 million
3. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
4. Godzilla Minus One
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
5. Trolls Band Together
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
Box Office Results (December 1-3)
Audiences might not have been crazy in love with Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé to the level of Taylor Swift’s tour feature, but it opened in line with its anticipated range. Premiering in first, the acclaimed concert pic started with $21.8 million. That’s on pace with my $20.7 million take.
The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes slid to second with $14.1 million in its third outing, just ahead of my $13.1 million call. The franchise prequel is up to $120 million.
In a weekend with many debuts, Godzilla Minus One achieved the largest one at $11.4 million. The Japanese was third with $11.4 million, well ahead of my $7.6 million projection. This is especially impressive since it’s making most of its green overseas.
Trolls Band Together was fourth with $7.8 million (I said $8.5 million) as the three-week total is $75 million.
Disney’s Wish tumbled a steep 61% for fifth in its sophomore frame with $7.7 million. I was more generous at $9.3 million. The two-week tally is a troubling $42 million.
The second weekend plummet was even higher for Napoleon in sixth. It was down 65% to $7.2 million compared to my $9.2 million forecast. The overall gross is $45 million.
Newcomers filled the 7-9 spots. Hindi-language action flick Animal exceeded my expectations in seventh with $6.4 million. I said $4 million.
Sci-fi tale The Shift from Angel Studios was eighth with $4.6 million. That’s in line with my expectations at $4.3 million.
John Woo’s Silent Night was quiet in ninth with $3 million. That’s below my expectations as I went with $5 million.
Lastly, Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving was tenth with $2.6 million, a tad under my $3.3 million prediction. Total is $28 million.
As November comes to a close, my updated Oscar predictions reflect one change in Best Picture as Anatomy of a Fall is back in with American Fiction out. Truth be told, I keep going back and forth on which film misses between Fall, Fiction, and The Zone of Interest at press time.
We also have a revolving door in the five spot in Supporting Actress and, for the first time, I’m going with a surprise pick in Rachel McAdams for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
The rest of the major races stay intact though I now have Oppenheimer leading in noms overall over Poor Things (which I had ahead in mid November). In fact, Poor Things now ranks third in the tally behind Killers of the Flower Moon.
You can read all the movement below as we approach December with all kinds of precursor indications coming our way!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Air (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)
15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Fair Play
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tótem (PR: Not Ranked)
10. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Monk and the Gun
The Peasants
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Every Body (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Deepest Breath
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Priscilla (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Chevalier (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Air (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nyad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-5)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Carmen
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 7) (+3)
5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Ferrari (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Killer (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (E)
8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
11 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Maestro
6 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Rustin
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, American Fiction, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Four Daughters, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish
November closed out at the box office with an unpredictable Thanksgiving frame where I had the entirety of the top four in the wrong spots. The head scratching will continue as December arrives with a quintet of newcomers (four of which could post very similar earnings). We have the concert pic Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé, Japanese monster mash Godzilla Minus One, John Woo’s dialogue free action thriller Silent Night, sci-fi drama The Shift from Angel Studios, and Hindi-language shoot-em-up Animal. My detailed prediction posts on all of them can be accessed here:
Beyoncé’s tour doc might be the only new entry in the top five. While it shouldn’t approach the near $100M out of the gate that Taylor Swift accomplished, a mid to high 20s output would firmly put it in first position.
It is common to see hefty drops after the Turkey Day weekend and that should apply to the leftovers. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (after surprisingly staying at #1 over the holiday) should slide to second with a mid 50s decline.
After that… it’s a crapshoot. Any of the newcomers could post better figures than my calls. However, I have all four making between $5-8 million and each falling outside the top five.
That’s because Napoleon, Wish, and Trolls Band Together may all flirt with $10 million. I’ve got the trio falling under that for a close finish between 3-5.
With all the newbies, I’ll expand to a top ten outlook and here’s how I see it:
1. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé
Predicted Gross: $20.7 million
2. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
3. Wish
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
4. Napoleon
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. Trolls World Tour
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
6. Godzilla Minus One
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
7. Silent Night
Predicted Gross: $5 million
8. The Shift
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
9. Animal
Predicted Gross: $4 million
10. Thanksgiving
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
Box Office Results (November 24-26)
In one of the most unexpected upsets in recent memory, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes had a far better than anticipated sophomore hold to rather easily take the holiday weekend. The franchise prequel eased a mere 35% for $29 million from Friday to Sunday, surpassing my $20.3 million projection with flying colors. The ten-day take is now $98 million.
Ridley Scott’s bio-epic Napoleon with Joaquin Phoenix was second as it slightly rose above forecasts. It made $20.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $32.7 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. That’s ahead of my respective $18.2 million and $28.5 million takes. With a weak B- Cinemascore grade, it may fade rather quickly.
After the massive flop that was The Marvels, the news didn’t get better for the Mouse House as the animated Wish was granted a tepid start in third. With ho-hum reviews, the Disney title fell far short of hopes with $19.6 million over the three-day and $31.6 million since Wednesday. I (along with most others) predicted a first place showing and had it at $32.2 million and $46.4 million. Ouch.
Trolls Band Together, in weekend two, was fourth with $17.8 million. I was more generous at $22.6 million and the DreamWorks Animated sequel has made $64 million after ten days.
Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving capitalized on that title with a fifth place slot and $7 million (I said $6.5 million). The ten-day tally is a respectable $24 million, especially since it comes with a low budget.
With a similar distribution deal to what Taylor Swift cut with AMC Theaters last month, Queen Bey brings her world tour to the multiplexes on December 1st with the release of Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé. The documentary concert pic hopes to capture a fraction of what Ms. Swift took in ($175 million thus far domestically).
No matter what happens, the performer will see lots of dough since (like Swift) she’ll receive 50% of the gross. That said, while Beyoncé is obviously a beloved international superstar, Renaissance will be fortunate to bring in a third of what The Eras Tour accomplished for its start. The Swifties propelled Eras to a record breaking $92.8 million premiere.
Anything over $30 million should be considered a tremendous debut. Even a low to mid 20s start could put it in the #1 spot to start off December at the box office (depending on where Wish and other Thanksgiving leftovers are at). I’ll say this falls in that range.
Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé opening weekend prediction: $20.7 million
The Thanksgiving box office gives us two high-profile releases mixed with the leftovers as Disney’s Wish and Ridley Scott’s Napoleon come out Wednesday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The Mouse House certainly wishes that Wish was getting better reviews and word-of-mouth. That said, the studio should have no trouble nabbing the top spot over the holiday frame. I’ve got the three-day in the low 30s and five-day in the mid 40s.
Napoleon with Joaquin Phoenix as the military leader is also generating so-so buzz. It is a viable option for adults looking a Turkey Day frame trip to the multiplex. A high teens Friday to Sunday might leave it in fourth position with a five-day approaching $30 milion.
After a premiere in the lower end of its anticipated range, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes may ease 50-55% in its sophomore outing. That might mean a drop to third as Trolls Band Together should see a more meager slide (20-25%) in its second weekend and stay in the runner-up spot.
Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving could capitalize on its name and have a smaller than normal decline for its genre. If it eases 40% or so, it should round out the high five as The Marvels might not make the top quintet (more on its poor performance below).
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Wish
Predicted Gross: $32.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $46.4 million
2. Trolls Band Together
Predicted Gross: $22.6 million
3. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
Predicted Gross: $2o.3 million
4. Napoleon
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $28.5 million
5. Thanksgiving
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
Box Office Results (November 17-19)
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, as expected, ruled the charts like its predecessors. Yet it came in considerably below the four entries it prequels. While parts I-IV from 2012-15 all opened to more than $100 million, Ballad managed $44.6 million (a touch under my $48.3 million projection). It’s not a disaster considering the reported $100 million budget, but it’s definitely not a shining victory.
Trolls Band Together opened in second with a solid $30 million, surpassing my $26.7 million take. The DreamWorks Animated threequel should hold up well during the holiday season.
Thanksgiving cut a $10.3 million gross for third place as the fake trailer turned feature came in just behind my $11.4 million forecast. Not too shabby as the budget is listed at $12.6 million.
The Marvels fell from first to fourth with a disastrous second weekend after a disastrous first. The MCU bomb (first time you’ve ever heard it) plummeted 78% to $10.1 million. I was more kind at $15.6 million. With $64 million in the bank after 10 days, it’s questionable whether Captain Marvel and her friends even reach $100 million domestically.
Five Nights at Freddy’s rounded out the top five with $3.5 million (I said $4.5 million) to brings its four-week total to $132 million.
Finally, Taika Waititi’s oft-delayed sports dramedy Next Goal Wins couldn’t find an audience. It was 8th with $2.5 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction.
And that does it for now, folks! Have a great Thanksgiving!
It has been a lengthy three weeks since my last Oscar predictions and there’s developments to discuss. One of the final major awards puzzle pieces held its first screenings this week in The Color Purple. The musical based on the play that is based on the movie that is based on the novel has drawn encouraging reactions thus far. In fact, they’re positive enough that I’m glad I’ve never dropped it from my ten BP nominees. And I suspect I’ve made the right call in keeping Danielle Brooks placed at #1 in Supporting Actress for quite some time. Same goes for Taraji P. Henson getting recognized in that category. I also think Fantasia Barrino’s lead performance is a decent (if not slam dunk pick) for the crowded Best Actress race and that Colman Domingo could materialize in Supporting Actor. He may miss the cut and get the sole nod in Actor for Rustin (though the double nominee threat is real). Barrino joins my projected quintet in Actress with Greta Lee (Past Lives) falling by the wayside.
A24 has also screened true life wrestling drama The Iron Claw before its December 22nd bow. Word-of-mouth is also strong for this one. Yet I wonder if A24 will go all in on their campaign. If so, a BP nod is not totally out of the question. It’s listed in my top 15, but at the moment I believe it’s on the outside looking in and I have it listed nowhere else as a possibility.
Napoleon falls out of BP contention due to mixed reaction as does Joaquin Phoenix in Best Actor. Ridley Scott’s epic could still show up in some tech races. Another Thanksgiving release lessened its chances this week in Disney’s Wish. The animated musical also is garnering so-so buzz. The fact that it’s a Mouse House production could mean it makes the Animated Feature cut. For now, it moves out of the high five.
While it has been a little while since my previous update, Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor have the same nominees (albeit with some movement in the rankings). In Actor, Colman Domingo as Rustin is back in over Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). Sandra Hüller becomes my rare double contender prediction as I now have her in Supporting Actress (taking out Viola Davis in Air).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)
10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (E)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Saltburn (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (E)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Taste of Things (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Priscilla
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Peasants (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Carmen (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Asteroid City
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (+2)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-4) – **previously listed at #1 as TBD song
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (+3)
7. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (-4)
8. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Steal the Show” from Elemental
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Maestro (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Creator
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 6) (E)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)
That adds up to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
9 Nominations
Barbie, The Color Purple
6 Nominations
Maestro
5 Nominations
The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Past Lives
2 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Priscilla, Rustin
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Four Daughters, The Killer, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Teachers’ Lounge
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 