Winter’s Tale – All My Life… I Wanted To Be A Blogster

The gladiator action pic Pompeii and Kevin Costner thriller 3 Days to Kill both make their debuts on Friday. Neither is likely to come close to challenging a third weekend for the The LEGO Movie at the top spot. You can find my individual prediction posts on the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/pompeii-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/3-days-to-kill-box-office-prediction/

As mentioned, the animated smash hit Lego Movie should easily coast to weekend #3 at the top of the charts. President’s Day weekend leftovers About Last Night and Robocop should both lose around half their audience while Monuments Men could stay in the top five with a fall in its third weekend that is less than that of its competitors. With my prediction of 3 Days to Kill outside the top five, I’ll project 1-6 this week:

1. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. About Last Night

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)

3. Pompeii

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. Robocop

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 52%)

5. The Monuments Men

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. 3 Days to Kill

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

Box Office Results (February 14-17)

The LEGO Movie held up fantastically in its sophomore frame over the holiday weekend with $62.4 million, besting my estimate of $54.2M. I correctly called the Kevin Hart rom com About Last Night to debut second, but its $27.8 million opening fell below my generous $36.8M prediction. Still, it continues an impressive run of box office dominance in 2014 by Mr. Hart. Robocop had a so-so debut at third. Its $25 million Friday-to-Monday take was right on par with my $24.9M estimate, but its $30 million six-day haul (it opened Wednesday) fell below my projection of $36.8M. The Monuments Men was fourth with $17.9 million – holding up better than my $15.1M projection. Newcomer Endless Love was in the five spot with $14.4 million, a bit below my $16.1M estimate. Finally, Winter’s Tale with Colin Farrell was the big loser of the weekend – opening in 8th place with a weak $8 million, far below my $18.4M prediction.

That’s all for now, folks! I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend with final results Monday.

This weekend’s romantic drama Winter’s Tale is the sole picture of the quartet coming out over President’s Day that isn’t based on a 1980s flick. It is based on a novel from Mark Helprin that came out in the 80s though. The period piece’s cast includes Colin Farrell, Jennifer Connelly, and Russell Crowe and comes from Akiva Goldsman, making his feature directorial debut. He’s well-known in Hollywood for his screenplays and they include A Time to Kill, A Beautiful Mind, Cinderella Man, and The Da Vinci Code.

Warner Bros. is definitely hoping the pic’s Valentine’s Day release date brings in couples. And I’ll predict that the release date will certainly help. Anything over $20 million would be considered quite a feat and it wouldn’t shock me if it got there (it has a smallish $46M budget). However, with direct competition from both About Last Night and Endless Love, I believe a more likely scenario is a debut in the high teens.

Winter’s Tale opening weekend prediction: $18.4 million (Friday to Monday)