Oscar Predictions: Die, My Love

In a six year period from 2010-2016, Jennifer Lawrence received 4 Oscar nominations. There was a Best Actress victory for 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook in addition to nods in lead for 2010’s Winter’s Bone and 2015’s Joy and Supporting Actress for 2013’s American Hustle. It’s now been a decade since she was in the awards mix, but Die, My Love could change that. Based on a 2017 novel by Ariana Harwicz, Lynne Ramsay (We Need to Talk About Kevin, You Were Never Really Here) helms her first feature in seven years. Lawrence headlines the psychological thriller as a mother suffering from postpartum depression. Robert Pattinson, LaKeith Stanfield, Sissy Spacek, and Nick Nolte costar.

One of the most anticipated Cannes debuts (the stateside drop date is TBD), Die has lived up to expectations of some critics and festival goers. The RT rating is 90% though some reviews and social media feedback suggests this could be tough to audiences to digest. Lawrence’s work, however, might not be ignored. If she becomes a surefire nominee in Actress, Die’s most ardent admirers could propel this to Picture and Director (the sound work is being singled out as well). At the least, its journey is worth monitoring as a fall premiere is likely on the horizon. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Atropia

The Grand Jury Prize at the Sundance Film Festival has been bestowed to eventual Best Picture nominees and one winner six times in the 21st century. That list includes 2009’s Precious, Winter’s Bone from 2010, 2012’s Beasts of the Southern Wild and 2014’s Whiplash, 2020’s Minari, and the victorious CODA of 2021. There’s plenty that never came close to Oscar’s radar such as Like Crazy or The Miseducation of Cameron Post and Nanny.

Atropia seems destined to fall into the latter grouping. The satire from Hailey Gailes unexpectedly took Park City’s top award. Alia Shawkat (known by many from Arrested Development), Callum Turner, Chloë Sevigny, and Tim Heidecker headline. The surprise nature of the Jury designation is due to subpar reviews. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 42% with a 46 Metacritic. That reaction is unlikely to allow this into the Academy’s consciousness. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Best Picture 2008: The Expanded Ten

Earlier this summer, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!

Beginning today… my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there were always five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.

This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in beginning in 2008. In fact, it’s because of that year’s biggest grosser not being included that may have prompted the Academy to expand again in the first place. We’ll get there in just a minute.

We do, of course, know five of the ten and that would be the ones that were nominated. Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire dominated the ceremony with ten nods and an impressive eight victories in Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Sound Mixing.

David Fincher’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button received the most overall mentions with 13 and took home 3 (Art Direction, Makeup, Visual Effects).

Our other trio of contenders were Ron Howard’s Frost/Nixon (o for 5 in nominations), Gus Van Sant’s Milk (8 nods with Sean Penn winning Actor as well as an Original Screenplay statue), and Stephen Daldry’s The Reader (5 nominations with Kate Winslet taking Actress).

The 81st Academy Awards were a rare year when the five Picture hopefuls matched the five filmmakers nominated in Best Director. In other words, there are no clues there for additional BP pics for the purposes of this post.

Yet for the ones that could’ve made the dance in an expanded lineup, we do begin with 2008’s largest moneymaker and that’s Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight. It did manage to score 8 mentions with Heath Ledger winning a posthumous Supporting Actor prize (in addition to Sound Editing gold). The fact that it didn’t break into BP was heavily criticized online and elsewhere. If there had been 10 pics up, that almost certainly wouldn’t have been the case.

I would say the same for Pixar’s Wall-E. When it went to 10 movies in 2009 and 2010, the studio’s Up and Toy Story 3 were in. The robotic adventure was the victor in Animated Feature and was nominated in five more races in Original Screenplay, Original Score, Original Song, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. Like Knight, Wall-E is an easy pick.

For the 8th spot, I’m fairly confident in Doubt. John Patrick Shanley’s drama (based on his Pulitzer Prize winning play) saw four of its actors nominated and was up for Adapted Screenplay. That combo is enough to assume inclusion.

Then it gets complicated for the 9th and 10th slots and there’s a few possibilities to ponder. Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler saw Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei up, but a screenplay miss makes me skeptical. Clint Eastwood’s Changeling had three noms (including Angelina Jolie in Actress), but drew mixed reviews. Woody Allen’s Vicky Christina Barcelona, despite taking the Golden Globe in Musical/Comedy, was only nominated for Penelope Cruz’s supporting turn (for which she won). Martin McDonagh’s In Bruges and Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky were both up for Original Screenplay and that race alone. There’s usually one or two screenplay nominees that are only up for that category. Iron Man was a gigantic hit which kicked off the MCU. I doubt the Academy would have honored two comic book adaptations. The Duchess won Costume Design and was nominated for its Art Direction. It also was greeted with a mixed critical response.

All of those titles, to one degree or another, are worthy of consideration for the last two spots. I’m going with an indie selection in Courtney Hunt’s Frozen River which was nominated for Actress (Melissa Leo) and Original Screenplay. Let’s call it 2008’s Winter’s Bone (which would make the 2010 BP ten).

Lastly, I’m naming Revolutionary Road from Sam Mendes. Despite it missing noms for stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, it received a Golden Globe nod in Drama and three Academy mentions for Supporting Actor (Michael Shannon), Art Direction, and Costume Design. That might have been just enough for #10.

So there you have it! That means my 2008 Best Picture expanded to ten is:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Doubt

Frost/Nixon

Frozen River

Milk

The Reader

Revolutionary Road

Slumdog Millionaire

Wall-E

I’ll have 2007 up for your reading pleasure soon!

Causeway Review

Like the Snow Cone flavor that Brian Tyree Henry’s character prefers, the understated nature of Causeway can occasionally come off as vanilla and a little cold. The debut work from theater director Lila Neugebauer is also accentuated by solid performances all around (Henry’s is a particular standout) and the toned down vibe can also work in its favor.

Lynsey (Jennifer Lawrence) is a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers member recovering from a traumatic brain injury in Afghanistan after an IED explosion. We meet her as she is staying with a warmhearted nurse (Jayne Houdyshell). This first act is handled with a deft touch showing more detail than we typically witness for one’s rough road to recovery.

After significant strides are made, Lynsey returns to her native New Orleans. Her family life is far from ideal as mother Gloria (Linda Emond) forgets which day her daughter is coming back. A brother with a drug problem is talked about but not seen. Feeling restless and anxious at home, Lynsey gets a job cleaning pools that are far nicer than the inflatable one that Mom drinks her cocktails in.

As her nurse learned and her conflicted doctor (Stephen McKinley Henderson) is told, Lynsey’s goal is a return overseas. Her physical recuperation may warrant a waiver being signed. Whether she’s mentally fit to serve is a question her medical advisors and the audience grapples with.

Our eager to redeploy patient meets a kindred spirit in James (Tyree Henry). He’s an auto mechanic introduced to Lynsey after she brings an overheated truck to his repair shop. Like his customer, he’s dealing with his own emotional damage due to a family tragedy. Connecting through shared trauma, Causeway becomes a simple story about a complex friendship. It’s on that level that it succeeds. It does so because of their performances. Those who discovered Lawrence through her first Oscar nod in 2010’s Winter’s Bone will welcome the return to indie drama.

The dramatic stakes don’t feel inflated here. If you feel that not a whole lot happens in the movie, you wouldn’t be mistaken. There are stretches where Lynsey and James are content to just hang (sometimes in a vacationing customer’s pool). Their dynamic is compelling enough that I valued lounging with them.

*** (out of four)

Best Picture 2010: The Final Five

After the 2008 Oscars, the Academy decided to expand the number of Best Picture nominees from five to ten. This rule would hold for 2009 and 2010 and then it shifted from anywhere between 5 and 10 (where it was typically 8 or 9). As of 2021, we’re back to a set 10.

Yet what if that had never happened? What if only five nominees from the last decade plus made the cut? My initial writeup where I predicted which five from 2009 would have done so can be found here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five

Now we move to 2010. It was a year in which Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech led the evening with 11 nominations. It would win four – Director, Colin Firth for Best Actor, Original Screenplay, and the big prize Picture. So there’s 20% of our theoretical lineup.

As for the others, let’s take them one by one and I’ll give my thoughts on whether each would’ve made that other 80% of the quintet.

127 Hours

In 2010, Danny Boyle was coming off 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire. That little film that could cleaned up on Oscar night with 8 trophies including Picture. This survival drama with James Franco landed six nods. It won zero, but earned recognition in the Best Pic prerequisites that count like screenplay and editing.