Anyone but You Box Office Prediction

Sony is banking on rom com fans making a holiday trek to Anyone but You when it debuts December 22nd. A modern take on Shakespeare’s Much Ado About Nothing, Will Gluck directs Sydney Sweeney (of Euphoria fame) and Glen Powell (of Top Gun: Maverick fame). Costars include Alexandra Shipp, GaTa, Hadley Robinson, Michelle Hurd, Dermot Mulroney, Rachel Griffiths, and Bryan Brown.

The studio has been heavily promoting their product, but Sweeney and Powell (despite their previous high profile projects) aren’t exactly known to open a picture. Barring an unexpectedly heavy female turnout, this should struggle out of the gate. From its Friday start through Monday (Christmas Day), the best case scenario is probably $10 million. Mid single digits seems more likely.

Anyone but You opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:

For my Migration prediction, click here:

For my The Iron Claw prediction, click here:

For my Poor Things prediction, click here:

For my The Color Purple prediction, click here:

For my Ferrari prediction, click here:

For my The Boys in the Boat prediction, click here:

For my Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: The Tragedy of Macbeth

The veil has lifted for a major awards hopeful with Joel Coen’s The Tragedy of Macbeth. This version of the Shakespearian tragedy casts Denzel Washington as Lord Macbeth and Frances McDormand as Lady Macbeth and it is kicking off the New York Film Festival. Between the two leads, they have five Oscars between them. Do they need to find more room on their shelves?

With Denzel, news from the Big Apple indicates yes. Some early reviews are calling it among his career best work. In the Best Actor derby, it’s likely that Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) and Will Smith (King Richard) have already punched their tickets to the dance. I believe we can add a third today with Mr. Washington.

With McDormand, it’s a bit more complicated. The answer may come down to whether distributor A24 elects for a campaign in lead or supporting. Based on the buzz, it sounds like a case could be made for either. My hunch is that Supporting Actress (which appears fairly wide open at the moment) will be the play. If so, McDormand probably stands a better chance for inclusion. I question whether her recent Best Actress victories (in 2017 for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and last year’s Nomadland) make her vulnerable to newcomers. Yet in Supporting Actress, I could easily see the Academy making room for her.

As for the rest of the cast, both Corey Hawkins and Kathryn Hunter are generating solid notices. However, their screen time could be a hindrance to make the cut (for Hunter, this definitely holds true if McDormand goes supporting).

Beyond Denzel, the cinematography is being heralded and it’s a safe bet Macbeth gets recognized there. Other techs like Production Design and Sound are feasible. Adapted Screenplay from Mr. Coen (making his first pic without brother Ethan) is in the cards. On the other hand, it’s said to deviate very little from the Shakespeare text and that may leave it off some ballots in that particular category.

Moving to the largest race of all, I’ve included Macbeth in my top ten for Best Picture all along. I don’t think it’s guaranteed a slot, but I don’t see myself moving it out based on the current buzz. Coen’s placement in Best Director is questionable but possible.

Bottom line: The Tragedy of Macbeth has elevated its lead actor and put itself in position for numerous other races. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Belfast

Kenneth Branagh’s varied filmography has included Shakespeare adaptations (Henry V, Much Ado About Nothing), MCU pics (Thor), Disney live-action remakes (Cinderella), action franchise entries (Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit), and Agatha Christie retellings (Murder on the Orient Express). None of them have received a Best Picture nod though Branagh was nominated for his direction of Henry V in 1989.

The Telluride Film Festival unveiled his black and white coming of age tale Belfast. Calling it his most personal film, it’s also one of his most acclaimed thus far. And it appears poised to give the filmmaker his first contender in the Best Picture derby. He could also be called out for his behind the camera work and his original screenplay.

As for the cast, Focus Features will need to decide where to place its principals. The quartet of Caitriona Balfe, Jamie Dornan, Ciaran Hinds, and Judi Dench could all go supporting. However, the studio may choose to put Balfe and Dornan in lead with the distinguished veterans in supporting. My feeling is that Dench (going for her 8th nod) and Hinds (trying to get his first) stand the best chances.

I also anticipate Belfast will be recognized for its cinematography which critics are singling out. Bottom line: the buzz from Colorado suggests Belfast has good reason to be hopeful during awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts on the films of 2021 will continue…

Oscar Watch: The King

The Venice and Telluride fests have certainly made this year’s Best Actor race interesting and potentially jam packed. So let’s add another to the mix in the form of The King. Based primarily on Shakespeare’s Henry V, the historical action drama casts Timothee Chalamet in the title role. David Michod (best known for 2010’s Animal Kingdom) directs with a supporting cast including Robert Pattinson, Joel Edgerton (who co-wrote the script with Michod), Lily-Rose Depp, Sean Harris, and Ben Mendelsohn.

Screening in Venice before its Netflix bow in November, the reviews are solid though probably not Best Picture material level. Yet for the third year in a row, it’s Chalamet (all of 23 years old) commanding the most attention. In 2017, the actor scored a Supporting Actor nod for Call Me by Your Name. Last year, he was on the radar screen in the same category for Beautiful Boy. The nomination never came.

This would be his first look at the lead prize. Overcrowding could be his downfall. Netflix has already seen two of their possibilities solidify their status over the weekend with Adam Driver (Marriage Story) and Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes). And they’ve still got Robert De Niro (The Irishman) and Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) coming to a festival near you. This could all leave Chalamet on the outside looking in, but he’s got a chance to hear his name called among the five eventual contenders. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…