Tag: Willem Dafoe

Oscar Predictions: Nosferatu

Acclaimed filmmaker Robert Eggers brings his version of Nosferatu to multiplexes on Christmas Day with Bill Skarsgård embodying the iconic vampire. Based on the 1922 classic German film which was spawned from Bram Stoker’s Dracula, this is Eggers’ fourth feature after the critically praised The Witch, The Lighthouse, and The Northman. Lily-Rose Depp, Nicholas Hoult, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Emma Corrin, Ralph Ineson, Simon McBurney, and Willem Dafoe populate his dark vision.

The review embargo lifted over three weeks before the opening and critics are (sorry…) mostly sinking their teeth into this. With 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic, the question isn’t whether Nosferatu gets Oscar nods. It’s how many. That’s because I’m confident tech nods are coming its way. Makeup & Hairstyling, Costume Design, Cinematography, and Production Design all seem achievable and I had it nabbing those four nods in my predictions from yesterday. Sound and (to a lesser degree) Visual Effects and Original Score could be on the menu.

As for above the line mentions, that is more questionable. Lily-Rose Depp is drawing raves for her lead work, but Best Actress is probably too crowded and I don’t currently have her in my top 10. Skarsgård, who terrified us as Pennywise in It, is being lauded for his supporting role. Yet we know the Academy doesn’t warm to performances in the horror genre.

I wouldn’t completely discount Picture or Eggers in director. Nosferatu‘s stock could rise exponentially if it grabs AFI or National Board of Review best of slots. For now, I feel more comfortable having the film and its maker on the outside looking in for recognition while below the lines noms should be materializing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

Arriving in wide release exactly 49 years to the day from the event it showcases, Saturday Night expands nationwide on October 11th. From Jason Reitman, the dramedy recounts the 90 minutes leading up to the premiere of Saturday Night Live. Gabriel LaBelle stars as Lorne Michaels with a large supporting cast including Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith (getting a lot of solid buzz as Chevy Chase), Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien, Emily Fairn, Matt Wood, Lamorne Morris, Kim Matula, Finn Wolfhard, Nicholas Braun (pulling double duty as Andy Kaufman and Jim Henson), Cooper Hoffman, Willem Dafoe, Matthew Rhys, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Batiste (who also provides the score).

The behind the scenes showbiz tale first premiered at Telluride to mostly favorable reaction. The RT score is 80% with 63 on Metacritic. This could contend for one of the ten slots in Best Picture at the Academy Awards, but it’s not a slam dunk nominee.

Opening just as SNL kicks off its 50th season certainly helps exposure. It debuted in five venues on September 27th in New York and L.A. to a robust $53k per screen average (second best this year after Kinds of Kindness). Saturday Night expands slightly on October 4th before the 2000 screen rollout on the 49th anniversary.

This was rightly anticipated to start out well on the coasts. I’m unconvinced general audiences will make this a sizable hit even with the (not exactly loud) awards chatter and decades long familiarity with the source material. I’m not sure this gets to $10 million and I’m putting it under.

Saturday Night opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my Terrifier 3 prediction, click here:

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

For my Piece by Piece prediction, click here:

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

Venice Makes Room for Next Door

The 2024 Venice Film Festival has wrapped production with a bit of a surprise ending. Pedro Almodóvar’s English language debut The Room Next Door has taken the Golden Lion (equivalent to Best Picture) in Italy. The relationship drama starring Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton has received positive reviews (95% RT), but the general consensus is they might not have been strong enough for this particular prize.

What does that mean for its Oscar chances? Well, it certainly helps exposure prior to its December 20th limited stateside start and nationwide expansion in January. Five of the past seven Golden Lion recipients have ended up nabbing BP nods – The Shape of Water (winner), Roma, Joker, Nomadland (winner), and Poor Things.

Venice spreads the wealth when it comes to the victors. The Silver Lion designation (equivalent to Best Director) was bestowed to Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. The Holocaust survivor epic was the breakout of the fest with its awards possibilities going through the roof. It could become a major player at the 97th Academy Awards and Corbet’s inclusion here proves it. On the other hand, this was probably the betting odds favorite for the Lion and didn’t get there.

The Volpi Cups go to Actor and Actress. The former went to Vincent Lindon for The Quiet Son. It’s doubtful that he’ll be a factor in the Academy’s race. In the past decade, two Volpi Actor winners have garnered Oscar nods (Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate and Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin).

In Best Actress, the story could be different with Nicole Kidman being named for Babygirl. Seeking her sixth Academy nom, she was unable to accept the Venice award due to her mother’s passing. At the Oscars, Best Actress is starting to look crowded. Yet A24 is likely to mount a spirited campaign for the performer. Half of the previous the Actress honorees have made the Academy’s cut: winners Emma Stone (La La Land) and Olivia Colman (The Favourite) in addition to Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), and Cate Blanchett (Tár).

Keep checking the blog for rolling awards coverage!

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice Review

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, the 36 years in the making sequel to the inventive original, finds ways to capture the spirit of what long ago preceded it. On the other hand, Tim Burton’s follow-up is just 12 minutes longer than the first. Unfortunately it feels about 30 minutes longer as it’s packed with too many characters and storylines. Busier is not better in this paranormal case.

Speaking of the paranormal, Lydia Deetz (Winona Ryder) was last seen as the death obsessed teen back in ’88 who was able to see the ghosts of the dearly departed couple who owned the house she moved into. Now she hosts a popular talk show where she helps guests conjure lost loved ones. Lydia has a conniving boyfriend who’s also her producer (a delightfully smarmy Justin Theroux) and an estranged daughter Astrid (Jenna Ortega) at boarding school. She also has visions of the demented “bio-exorcist” squared title character (Michael Keaton) who tried to marry her way back when.

When Lydia’s father Charles (Jeffrey Jones, not in the film but his character cleverly is) passes, Lydia and her unorthodox posse travel back to quaint Winter River, Connecticut for the funeral. That includes oddly artistic stepmom Delia (Catherine O’Hara). Astrid, who doesn’t believe in ghosts despite the Deetz history but shares mom’s downbeat worldview, meets an intriguing outcast and potential love interest Jeremy (Arthur Conti). She is additionally primed for introduction for Mr. Juice if his name is iconically uttered three times.

Beetlejuice has his own familial issues. Ex-wife Delores (Monica Bellucci) is stalking him in the afterlife so he’s desperately looking to join the physical world and wed Lydia after their first ceremony was indefinitely postponed. Willem Dafoe turns up as a detective in the hereafter. His qualifications to be a sleuth? He’s a former B actor who played one on TV!

There’s a lot going on in Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and the first act is a slight slog to establish all the subplots. Once that occurs, I thought one in particular could’ve been jettisoned completely and that’s the ‘Juice/Delores angle. Dafoe is having a ball but his screen time feels superfluous.

Some of what going on is reminiscent of the darkly amusing pleasures that Beetlejuice brought. Ryder and O’Hara (who’s always a joy) slip effortlessly into their characters and Ortega is a fine addition (she’s had her practice on Netflix’s Wednesday which Burton is a creative force behind). There’s plenty of fun PG-13 level gross visual effects and of course Keaton is reliable for some highlights.

So where are Barbara (Geena Davis) and Richard (Alec Baldwin) – the Maitlands from part 1? The sequel cheekily explains their absence in a flippant manner. I kind of appreciated that this backstory isn’t delved into. After all, this film is plenty crowded. That said, the Maitlands were the audience’s conduit to the bizarro world that Burton and company constructed. It’s an aspect that is missing here. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is on track intermittently even if its soul can feel departed.

**1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Saturday Night

Jason Reitman had a one-two punch of consecutive Best Picture nominees with Juno and Up in the Air in 2007 and 2009. Some follow-ups generated solid reviews (Young Adult, Tully) while others (Labor Day, The Front Runner) drew more mixed reactions. None have received significant awards buzz in the past decade and a half. Will that change with Saturday Night?

The Sony Pictures dramedy is slated for release on October 11th which is the 49th anniversary of the iconic sketch show it celebrates. This recounts the chaotic moments leading up to the premiere of Saturday Night Live. Gabriel LaBelle (who essentially played young Steven Spielberg in 2022’s The Fabelmans) is 30-year-old Lorne Michaels. The extensive supporting cast (some playing 1975 legends with others as future legends) includes Cooper Hoffman, Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith, Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien, Emily Fairn, Matt Wood, Lamorne Morris, Kim Matula, Finn Wolfhard, Nicholas Braun (as Andy Kaufman and Jim Henson), Andrew Barth Feldman, Willem Dafoe, Matthew Rhys, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Batiste.

Having just played Telluride and hitting Toronto shortly, early word-of-mouth is primarily on the fresh side. There are some high profile reviews of the thumbs down variety. I would say Saturday Night stands a shot at a Best Picture nomination, but it is a coin flip at the moment as we await how competitors pan out. Down ballot categories like Costume Design and (especially) Film Editing could occur especially if it sneaks into BP.

As for the cast, LaBelle is getting quality ink. Yet some of the strongest notices are going to Sennott as writer Rosie Schuster and Smith as Chevy Chase. I’m skeptical any of the performers break into their respective categories though the SAG Awards could certainly nominate the cast in their Ensemble race. Speaking of other shows, the Golden Globes could put it up for Musical/Comedy assuming Sony campaigns for it there and LaBelle could make the Actor (Musical/Comedy) quintet.

At the Academy Awards, there is almost always a picture or two that is up solely for its screenplay. This is a distinct possibility with Saturday Night and its original screenplay from Reitman and Gil Kenan. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice Box Office Prediction

Over three and a half decades after the original made a killing at the box office, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice appears in theaters on September 6th. Tim Burton returns to direct the macabre comedy with Michael Keaton reprising his title role as the demented bio-exorcist. Winona Ryder and Catherine O’Hara are back as Lydia and Delia Deetz with Jenna Ortega (hot off Netflix’s Wednesday from exec producer Burton) joining as third gen Deetz. Other newcomers to the franchise are Justin Theroux, Monica Bellucci, and Willem Dafoe.

The long-in-development sequel received a high-profile slot kicking off the Venice Film Festival this week. Reviews are mostly fresh with many critics saying it’s a return to form for its filmmaker. In 1988, Beetlejuice grossed $74 million domestically and was the 10th highest earner of the year. Since then, its reputation has grown as a classic genre mixup of humor and genial horror.

This should succeed in bringing in 36 years worth of fans and it doesn’t hurt that Ortega is present. Tracking continues to tick up from $65-75 million as it’s now expected to rise above well above that and maybe even in nine figures. The domestic September opening weekend records are held by 2017’s It ($123 million) and its 2019 sequel It Chapter Two with $91 million. Third place belongs to the MCU’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings at $75 million.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice should face no trouble achieving second place and it could absolutely come in first. The momentum appears real and I’ll say it gets beyond the century mark.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice opening weekend prediction: $115.7 million

Oscar Predictions: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

It was surprising when the Venice organizers announced that Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (out September 6th) would open their film festival which kicked off today. The long-in-development sequel (as in 36 years) brings Tim Burton back in the director’s chair with Michael Keaton reprising his iconic role as the ghost with the most. Winona Ryder and Catherine O’Hara return with Jenna Ortega (who stars in Netflix’s Wednesday from Burton), Justin Theroux, Monica Bellucci, and Willem Dafoe entering the macabre universe.

Projections have Beetlejuice squared circling big numbers at the box office. The Italian premiere announcement has prognosticators pondering the awards viability. The 1988 original earned a sole Oscar nod and it won Best Makeup (before it was Makeup and Hairstyling), beating out a worthy competitor in Coming to America.

Most of the reviews for the follow-up are in the plus column with 21 out of the current 27 sporting red on Rotten Tomatoes. Many are saying it’s a welcome return to form for Burton. It could certainly land another Makeup mention though defeating Dune: Part Two won’t be an easy chore. I wouldn’t totally rule out Production Design or Visual Effects as possibilities.

Anything beyond that is unlikely as the same probably holds true for its Golden Globes chances in Musical/Comedy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue with frequency now that Venice is underway…

Kinds of Kindness Box Office Prediction

Kinds of Kindness is the latest offering from Yorgos Lanthimos and it hits just months after the filmmaker’s multi Oscar nominee Poor Things. The dark comedy anthology stars Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, Willem Dafoe, Margaret Qualley, Hong Chau, Joe Alwyn, Mamoudou Athie, and Hunter Schafer.

After a Cannes premiere that yielded mostly positive reviews, the RT score now stands at a respectable if not overwhelming 73%. This is not expected to be the awards player that Poor Things was (four wins in 11 nominations including Stone for Best Actress). That buzz certainly assisted in getting Things to a $34 million domestic gross.

Kindness did open on 5 screens this weekend in NY/LA and it posted the strongest per theater average of 2024 with an estimated $350k or $70k per. On June 28th, it will see an expansion to 500+ venues across the nation.

How this plays between the coasts is a trickier proposition. I’ll say the wider rollout gives it another $3 million and change as I don’t see it reaching Poor numbers.

Kinds of Kindness opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my A Quiet Place: Day One prediction, click here:

A Quiet Place: Day One Box Office Prediction

For my Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 prediction, click here:

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Kinds of Kindness

The previous two features from Yorgos Lanthimos – 2018’s The Favourite and last year’s Poor Things – combined for 21 Oscar nominations. This includes two Actress victories for Olivia Colman in the former and Emma Stone in the latter. Mere months after Poor Things, Lanthimos’s follow-up Kinds of Kindness has premiered at Cannes prior to its June 21st stateside bow. The three hour anthology has Ms. Stone headlining alongside Jesse Plemons, Willem Dafoe, Margaret Qualley, Hong Chau, Joe Alwyn, Mamoudou Athie, and Hunter Schafer.

Unlike his two Academy contending predecessors, Lanthimos reunites with writing partner Efthimis Filippou. They collaborated on the filmmaker’s earlier projects Dogtooth (2012), The Lobster (2016), and The Killing of a Sacred Deer (2017).

The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94%, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Several critics, while praising many aspects, are calling this an easier picture to admire than like. This will be a true test of the Academy’s affinity for its maker. Those last two projects yielded five acting nominations and the aforementioned two wins. Stone and Plemons in particular are generating plenty of kudos. I do question whether Searchlight hones in on any of the cast for recognition. Perhaps SAG will take notice. In my previous prediction posts, I singled out Hong Chau for Supporting Actress consideration. I doubt that happens now. The best bet could be a sole Screenplay nod.

I wouldn’t discount Kinds receiving the kindness of awards voters. That said, I believe it faces more of an uphill battle than Lanthimos’s recent things that the Academy favoured. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

And here we go! We are about three weeks removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days.

It begins with Supporting Actor. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded one nominee: Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named the eventual winner Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer as well as Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. I did not identify Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) or Ryan Gosling (Barbie) at the early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned for in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor.

This premiere post previews a potential showdown of Succession actors Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong as well as possible spots for legends like Denzel Washington and Willem Dafoe. There’s also relative unknowns (Leigh Gill, Clarence Maclin) and a pair of Dune thespians (Javier Bardem, Austin Butler). This lineup is admittedly far less star-studded than 2023’s.

Here’s the first snapshot:

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Leigh Gill, Blitz

Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

Drew Starkey, Queer

Stanley Tucci, Conclave

Other Possibilities:

Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two

Willem Dafoe, Kinds of Kindness

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

John Lithgow, Conclave

Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

Adam Pearson, A Diffrent Man

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Denzel Washington, Gladiator 2

Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis