Tag: Will Ferrell

Oscar Predictions: Will & Harper

Will & Harper seems to be quite a crowd favorite at Sundance. The documentary follows Will Ferrell and best friend Harper Steele on a road trip following Harper’s recent gender transition. Josh Greenbaum, who made Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar and Strays, chronicles the journey.

Not all the reviews are raves, but it does have a 100% RT score. Obviously Ferrell’s star power and the subject matter could result in lots of eyeballs on this doc. It should be scooped by a streamer or studio in short order and there’s already rumors it might land the largest doc deal in Sundance history.

Just because this appears bound to be one of the highest profile pics in its genre doesn’t mean it’ll generate awards attention. Yet if viewers respond the way the Park City group is (multiple standing O’s), it could be in the conversation. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

81st Golden Globe Awards Reaction

Watching the recipients of the 81st Golden Globe Awards try to make their way to the stage through a tricky seating chart generated humorous moments of suspense this evening. As far as the winner themselves, there were less surprises. The show, however, wasn’t completely devoid of unexpected victors in the cinematic races. I’ll also add that Will Ferrell and Kristen Wiig’s musical related bit before they presented was easily the comedic highlight in a rather dull show (with some weak hosting from Jo Koy).

I went 12 for 15 in my picks as it turned out not to be the Barbenheimer show. The latter portion of that fresh word in the lexicon was correct as Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer was the most celebrated picture with five Globes: Best Film (Drama), Director (Nolan), Actor in a Drama (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), and Original Score. I correctly picked all of those (as I did all the acting derbies I might add). There’s certainly no reason to think anything has changed with my longtime feeling that Oppenheimer is #1 in the Oscar BP rankings where it has been perched for months.

Four other movies posted two wins. Anatomy of a Fall was responsible for one of my misses as it won Best Screenplay over my Barbie call. That was genuinely unanticipated while its victory for Non-English Language Film was not. This is a nice show for the French mystery as it’s considered a question mark for the Academy’s BP race (tonight helps).

Poor Things took Best Film (Musical/Comedy) in another race where I selected Barbie. As anticipated, Emma Stone was the Musical/Comedy actress winner.

The Holdovers was recognized in Musical/Comedy for Actor (Paul Giamatti) and Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph). For the latter, this could be the start of several podium trips.

Barbie also took a pair of prizes. Yet it didn’t emerge in its highest profile categories. Instead it took Best Song and the newly (and oddly) coined Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement. In short, it was not an overly successful evening for Greta Gerwig’s phenomenon.

Lily Gladstone is your Best Actress (Drama) for Killers of the Flower Moon and you can expect future awards shows will be a showdown between her and Emma Stone.

Finally, my other miss was The Boy and the Heron being named Animated Feature over the favored Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. I still think Spidey is out front for the Oscar, but it could be a real competition.

All in all: a great evening for “enheimer” and Ferrell/Wiig dance moves. Not as much for “Barb”.

Barbie Review

Greta Gerwig’s Barbie is never dull and it is a triumph of Dream House production design with exquisite casting. Cowriting with her partner Noah Baumbach, the screenplay is home to some great gags and eventually some emotionally inspired sections. It stumbles occasionally in sketchy territory that seems more in place as a mid-level SNL sketch (with some of the show’s vets performing the material). With Margot Robbie as the classic or “stereotypical” Barbie and Ryan Gosling as a version of Ken who believes his profession is “Beach” (where he spends his days), their chemistry clicks as they explore lands ruled by matriarchy and patriarchy.

The comedy around them can sputter in one scene and pop in the next. This is a satire of corporatism and critique of gender identities that wouldn’t exist without that Mattel cooperation. It has its own well-worn cliches present about the Venus and Mars divisions. Venus is Barbieland here while Mars is the world we know. Gerwig and Baumbach are dealing with a tricky balance and the fact that this mostly succeeds is an impressive achievement.

We meet Robbie’s Barbie in Barbieland where every night is Girls Night (!) alongside President Barbie (Issa Rae), Writer Barbie (Alexandra Shipp), and plenty of others professionals. These women rule the joint while Ken and his fellow Kens (they include Simu Liu and Kingsley Ben-Adir) beach during the day and pine for their respective Barbies at night. In one funny revelation, it is said that the women literally have no clue where the Kens stay at night (they do not own dream dwellings).

Our lead Barbie’s blissful existence ends when she starts thinking of death. Soon her perfectly perched feet fall flat and cellulite emerges. These real world problems are due to Earthly interference. She doesn’t want to become like Weird Barbie (Kate McKinnon), whose physical traits resemble a demented child being creative with her doll parts. Barbie must travel to the Real World which she assumes puts females in the same leadership positions as Barbieland. Gosling’s Ken sneaks along for the ride.

Their journey introduces them to single mom Gloria (America Ferrera) and teen daughter (Ariana Greenblatt). Mom works for Mattel, which is entirely run by males including Will Ferrell’s CEO. She has her own ideas for Barbie iterations and that may be causing Robbie’s imperfections. While she deals with the patriarchy ruling the land, Ken revels in it and soon brings that superior attitude back to Barbieland. A buoyant battle for the sexes follows.

Barbie improves as it goes along. It manages to mostly earn the moving moments that populate the final act. I suspect some of the broader material could’ve been cut down. For example, Ferrell and his band of execs don’t really add much. Yet I dug McKinnon as the oddly configured Weird Barbie. This is an experience where we have Gosling stealing scenes with hilarity and Ferrera doing the same with heartier stuff. Robbie is in the middle of it and she is smartly cast (narrator Helen Mirren has a moment of snarky meta fun commenting on her incredible beauty). There’s plenty to ponder in the politics of Barbie, but maybe not thinking about it too hard is the way to go. The same logic can be applied to Ken’s out of place friend Allan (Michael Cera). He doesn’t really belong, but I enjoyed him. Same goes for the movie where our central character is figuring out where she belongs.

*** (out of four)

August 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (08/23): I’ve downgraded my Turismo prediction from $24.3M to $19.3M.

The month of August closes out with a trio of new titles and National Cinema Day happening on Sunday with ticket prices at $4 in thousands of theaters. The Playstation based racing drama Gran Turismo, faith-based baseball drama The Hill, and Liam Neeson’s action thriller Retribution premiere and you can access my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Gran Turismo Box Office Prediction
The Hill Box Office Prediction
Retribution Box Office Prediction

With high familiarity for the video game source material and decent enough reviews, Gran Turismo should place first with a mid 20s haul. The National Cinema Day bargain prices on Sunday could push this to grosses similar to what Blue Beetle made in its opening.

Speaking of Beetle, it may drop from first to third in its sophomore frame after a poor start (more on that below). That’s because Barbie should see a smaller decline and remain in second.

As for other holdovers, Oppenheimer and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should each ease a spot to fourth and fifth.

That’s because I don’t envision The Hill or Retribution hitting the top five. The former could exceed my forecast if it breaks through with Christian audiences. I have it at $3.3 million. With Retribution, I see no compelling reason why it wouldn’t open on pace with recent Neeson pics and that’d mean an opening of just over $3 million. I’ll go a tad less with $2.4 million.

Here’s how I see that high five playing out:

1. Gran Turismo

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million

2. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $16.5 million

3. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

Box Office Results (August 18-20)

Good news and bad news for Warner Bros as Barbie became the studio’s largest domestic earner of all time over 2008’s The Dark Knight. Obviously that’s the good news.

WB saw Barbie‘s four-week reign atop the charts by the WB’s Blue Beetle. Yet that’s kinda the bad news because its $25 million beginning is the lowest in the decade plus history of the DCU. It did manage to barely top my $23.7 million take, but it’s still a subpar start.

As for Barbie, it was second with $21 million. That’s just under my $22.5 million projection as its $566 million total set for the aforementioned record.

Oppenheimer was third with $10.7 million compared to my $12.7 million estimate for a five-week tally of $285 million.

Fourth place belonged to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem with $8.5 million (I said $9.2 million) for $88 million in three weeks.

Rounding out the top five in disappointing fashion was Strays. The R rated comedy featuring Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx voicing dirty dogs tanked with $8.2 million. I was kinder at $13.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your preferred streaming platform. Until next time…

Strays Box Office Prediction

Universal Pictures achieved box office success with a Cocaine Bear earlier this year. They’re hoping raunchy talking dogs sell tickets on August 18th when Strays debuts. Josh Greenbaum directs with Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx lending their vocal talents to the headlining hounds. Isla Fisher and Randall Park also provide behind the mic work. Other cast members include Will Forte, Josh Gad, Harvey Guillén, Rob Riggle, Brett Gelman, Jamie Demetriou, Sofia Vergara, and Dennis Quaid.

Originally set for June, the studio would dream of Sausage Party style success. It premiered in the same mid-August frame in 2016 to over $30 million. Party also had considerably more buzz. Comedies have also struggled mightily in the past few years.

I could see this opening similarly to this summer’s No Hard Feelings and that would mean low to mid teens.

Strays opening weekend prediction: $13.5 million

For my Blue Beetle prediction, click here:

Blue Beetle Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Barbie

One of 2023’s most anticipated titles is out Friday with Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and the review embargo has lifted for the Mattel property. The box office expectations have steadily risen in recent weeks and I’ve got it nearly reaching $130 million out of the gate. Margot Robbie is, of course, the title character with Ryan Gosling as Ken. The sprawling supporting players include America Ferrera, Rhea Perlman, Will Ferrell, Kate McKinnon, Issa Rae, Alexandra Shipp, Emma Mackey, Dua Lipa, Kingsley Ben-Adir, Simu Liu, Michael Cera, Ariana Greenblatt, and Helen Mirren.

It could be said that the embargo has been eagerly awaited as well. With 70 write-ups in at publication press, the Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at a robust 90%. Even when the trailers debuted, we could see awards potential in a few technical races. This includes Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Costume Design. Expect it to be in contention for all three.

The bigger question is whether it plays beyond the down the line races. Gerwig cowrote wrote the screenplay with her partner Noah Baumbach. Many reviews hone in on the clever take for the iconic IP and Adapted Screenplay seems like the most likely major category nod. If Barbie is a moneymaking behemoth (and especially if it holds decently after an expected humongous start), Best Picture and Director mentions are feasible. I’ll note that Gerwig’s two previous pics – 2017’s Lady Bird and 2019’s Little Women – both landed BP slots.

As for the performances, both Robbie in Actress and Gosling in Supporting Actor are doable. This would be the former’s third nod after 2017’s I, Tonya and 2019’s Bombshell (for supporting) and the latter’s third behind 2006’s Half Nelson and 2016’s La La Land. Based on early buzz, I see Gosling as more probable than Robbie. However, we need to see how much competition emerges in the fall. There should be plenty considering that’s when the bulk of Oscar hopefuls debut. America Ferrera is also drawing some raves for her work so we shall see if WB makes a push for her in Supporting Actress.

Lastly, Billie Eilish has the tune “What Was I Made For?” and it may be the soundtrack’s entry in Original Song. As you may recall, she won the gold statue in that race in 2021 for her title track “No Time to Die”. It will be interesting to see if Warner Bros also mounts a campaign for “I’m Just Ken”, sung by Gosling.

Bottom line: the right combo of critical praise and box office bucks could propel Barbie to plenty of nominations. Another path could involve some tech stuff and the script. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Barbie Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (07/19): I’ve increased my prediction from $127.8M to $160.8M

After a lengthy development process, the eagerly anticipated live-action Barbie seeks to pack movie houses on July 21st. Greta Gerwig, coming off two Best Picture nominees in a row with Lady Bird and Little Women, directs with Margot Robbie as the iconic Mattel creation and Ryan Gosling as Ken. The large supporting cast (some playing variations of the leading dolls) includes America Ferrera, Kate McKinnon, Issa Rae, Rhea Perlman, Alexandra Shipp, Emma Mackey, Dua Lipa, Kingsley Ben-Adir, Simu Liu, Michael Cera, Ariana Greenblatt, and Will Ferrell. Once a vehicle for Amy Schumer and then Anne Hathaway, the reported $100 million production tapped Robbie four summers ago for the high profile project.

It goes without saying that the toy line dating back to 1959 has seen generations of consumers. Warner Bros is banking that crowds of all ages for the PG-13 rated pic will turn up. While it should certainly skew female, all demographics are expected to be represented.

Barbie has also been the benefactor of extra publicity due to Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer debuting on the same day. Dubbed “Barbenheimer” all over social media, the premiere of two awards and blockbuster hopefuls only adds to the hoopla.

The breakout potential seems quite real and buzz has been growing steadily since the trailer and other forms of exposure. Initial estimates were in the $55-$70 million vicinity, rose to $80-$100 million, and are now looking to top $100 million. I’m inclined to say it manages nine digits with room to spare.

Barbie opening weekend prediction: $160.8 million

For my Oppenheimer prediction, click here:

Oppenheimer Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Spirited

Will Ferrell, Ryan Reynolds, and Octavia Spencer headline Spirited, a musical comedy take on A Christmas Carol. Slated for an Apple TV rollout on November 18th, it has a limited theatrical release this Friday. Sean Anders, who collaborated with Ferrell on both Daddy’s Home pics, directs.

The brief cinematic run leaves it Oscar eligible, but don’t expect this spin on the Dickens classic to garner much attention. It is worth discussing whether the Hollywood Foreign Press Association puts it on their radar for the Golden Globes. They have Musical/Comedy designations and seeing it nominated for Picture and Actor (Ferrell or Reynolds) is feasible.

However, the current 59% Rotten Tomatoes meter is not encouraging. There are certainly years where the Musical/Comedy acting lists allow for performances from films with mixed reviews. I wouldn’t totally discount Ferrell. He’s a two-time GG hopeful in Supporting Actor for 2005’s The Producers and lead actor for Musical/Comedy for 2006’s Stranger Than Fiction. I would say the competition would need to be pretty weak for his third nod. My Oscar (and Golden Globe) prediction posts will continue…

Don’t Look Up Review

The forecast in Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up is a planet killing comet mixed with a heavy dose of condescension. This is an all-star experience about our home star being decimated. The writer/director is a Saturday Night Live veteran scribe who mastered the art of penning sketches with exaggerated characters. Even with all the talent involved (there’s lots of Oscar nods and wins among the cast), hardly any rise above caricature status. The nerdy but hot scientist, the clueless government officials, the spoiled pop princess, the pompous and feeble brained news anchors, the empathy devoid and weird billionaire…

These one-note types may fit a mold in a cleverly developed bit that runs five minutes. Not so much in this two and a half hour countdown. They’re mostly tiresome in McKay’s latest politically charged tale. In The Big Short, the filmmaker mixed a cast of familiar faces, complicated financial talk, and humor to rewarding payoffs. McKay’s comedies with Will Ferrell (particularly Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy) are already classics. The issue presented here isn’t complex… a scientific discovery (doubling as a metaphor for climate change) is on its way. McKay’s treatment of the subject matter isn’t subtle. And the screenplay often fails to be funny when showcasing its righteous indignation. Anger and laughter can be a potent combo if handled properly. It’s a test that isn’t met here.

Michigan St. Kate Dibiasky (Jennifer Lawrence) discovers said object hurtling toward Earth with a delivery date about six months out. Her professor, Dr. Randall Mindy (Leonardo DiCaprio) teams with her along with the head of the Planetary Defense Coordination Office (Rob Morgan) to warn a White House filled with scandal and nepotism. The President is Janie Orlean (Meryl Streep), whose Supreme Court nominee may be a porn star and her lover. Her Chief of Staff is her intellectually challenged but supremely confident son (Jonah Hill).

The 100% certainty of a deep impact causing armageddon is not music to the ears of the flailing administration. In fact, Kate and Dr. Mindy are booked in the back segment of a “news” hour hosted by a duo played by Cate Blanchett and Tyler Perry. The segment preceding them is about the romantic entanglements of a famous singer (Ariana Grande). Some of the country takes the threat seriously while another segment pretends it doesn’t exist (and yes it’s easy to draw comparisons to the pandemic era).

President Orlean and her bumbling bubble get more involved when eccentric tech mogul Peter Isherwell (Mark Rylance) figures out a way to monetize the materials from the potential Earth shatterer. And while Dr. Mindy becomes distracted with his new fame and social media status, Kate’s stern warnings make her an enemy of the state.

I won’t get to Kate’s two boyfriends or Dr. Mindy’s wife and kids or whether the snacks in the White House are free or not (actually a gag that’s pretty solid). There’s a whole lot of players in Don’t Look Up and I’m challenged to name a performance that sticks with me for the right reasons. DiCaprio and Lawrence are adequate, but we know they can be so much better. Others are outright annoying and that includes Hill, Rylance, and even Streep. That’s because McKay never writes them above the level of cartoonish morons.

Will your political viewpoints determine whether you dig this? I don’t think so. The frequent struggles to develop the principals and the jarring tone shifts (a late pivot to sentimentality falls flat) should offend both sides and those in between. I’ve watched McKay skewer his targets with far more precision that achieved more lasting results. He’s clear that we’re all doomed in Don’t Look Up. With the characters inhabiting his screenplay, you might find yourself pulling for the comet.

** (out of four)

2020 Oscar Nominations Reaction

To Oscar prognosticators like yours truly, today was like Christmas morning as nominations were unwrapped early for the 93rd Annual Academy Awards, airing April 25th. Some things never change with the prediction game. There were categories where I was perfect (3 of them) and, as has become tradition, a dreaded race where I whiffed at 2/5.

As was the most likely scenario, Mank led all films with 10 nominations. Yet it did so by missing some key races that are usually needed to nab a Best Picture victory. This was followed by six pictures garnering six mentions: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Some of those over performed. Others – not so much.

Overall this blogger went 80/104 on estimates and in this topsy turvy year, I’ll take it. Let’s break it down race by race, shall we?

Best Picture

Nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

How I Did: 7/9

The magic number of nominees ended up being 8 and I projected 9. I’ll say again… I’m very happy that the Academy is going with a set 10 again beginning in 2022. This means it was Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami that missed and The Father (which had a solid showing) in. Judas, Minari and Sound of Metal proved their anticipated status as late bloomers making the cut.

Best Director

Nominees: Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)

How I Did: 4/5

The Academy made history today when they nominated two women in Director for the first time. This was expected, but it is worth noting that Regina King (One Night in Miami) was a contender who missed the cut. That’s not where I went wrong as Vinterberg came out of nowhere to get a spot. While Another Round is expected to emerge victorious in International Feature Film, its director became the rare nominee to get in without a Best Picture slot. And despite being nominated for his writing, Aaron Sorkin (Trial) couldn’t get into this one.

Best Actress

Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

I can’t put myself on the back too much here. This was widely seen as the most probable quintet and it remained true to form. Potential surprise picks like Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) and Golden Globe Musical/Comedy winner Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) didn’t materialize.

Best Actor

Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

Again, no shockers here. Any late momentum by Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round) or Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian) was squashed and Boseman stands tall as the major frontrunner.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)

How I Did: 4/5

For the past couple of weeks, there have been six likely nominees and only five spots. I went with Golden Globe winner Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) over Seyfried. Fun fact: Foster is the first Globe winner from this category in 44 years to not land an Oscar mention. This is a wide open acting race (more so than the others by far).

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

How I Did: 4/5

The morning’s biggest surprise is the inclusion of Stanfield with his Judas costar Kaluuya. That has nothing to do with performance itself as Warner Bros. actually campaigned for Stanfield in Best Actor. The Academy simply ignored that and chose to put him here. In other words, this is the nomination that nobody saw coming. His inclusion prevented Boseman from being a double nominee for Da 5 Bloods (which had an almost nonexistent showing).

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

How I Did: 4/5

No Mank is the headline here as Sound of Metal grabbed the spot. This omission is what makes a Mank BP victory highly doubtful.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The White Tiger

How I Did: 3/5

Ma Rainey‘s bleaker than expected morning continued with no love here. Same goes for The Mauritanian (which goose egged today). In their place? Borat and The White Tiger.

Best Animated Feature

Nominees: Onward, Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Soul, Wolfwalkers

How I Did: 4/5

It was Sheep over The Croods: A New Age in a competition where Disney/Pixar’s Soul should dominate.

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees: Collective, Crip Camp, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, Time

How I Did: 3/5

This category (unpredictable usually) was a real head scratcher in 2020. I had Dick Johnson Is Dead and Welcome to Chechnya in over Crip Camp and The Mole Agent. This is a toughie to project, but I’ll say Time might have an edge.

Best International Feature Film

Nominees: Another Round, Better Days, Collective, The Man Who Sold His Skin, Quo Vadis, Aida?

How I Did: 2/5 (ugh)

The dreaded 2/5 came here with Better Days, double nominee Collective, and the charmingly titled The Man Who Sold His Skin in over my picks of Dear Comrades!, La Llorona, and Two of Us. This looks like Round‘s race to lose at press time.

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7

How I Did: 4/5

Judas over Minari was where I went wrong, but not shocking considering the former’s very good day. You may have noticed this is the first mention of News of the World, which picked up four tech nods but got zilch in the big derbies.

Best Costume Design

Nominees: Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinocchio 

How I Did: 4/5

Not many were saying Pinocchio would play here, but it nosed out my Ammonite selection.

Best Film Editing

Nominees: The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

How I Did: 4/5

This is another high profile miss for Mank as The Father was selected instead. Of its six nods, this and Original Screenplay is where Trial has the best shot at gold.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Pinocchio

How I Did: 4/5

And here’s a scenario where I was saying Mank would miss. It didn’t as it edged out Birds of Prey, which was called out zero times this morning.

Best Original Score

Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul

How I Did: 4/5

Here marks the sole mention for Bloods in a race where it wasn’t anticipated. It got in over my pick of The Midnight Sky. Like Animated Feature, expect Soul to reign supreme here.

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7, “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, “lo Si” from The Life Ahead, “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami

How I Did: 4/5

The chances of Will Ferrell and Rachel McAdams belting out their ballad from the Netflix comedy Eurovision became a reality! It makes the cut over “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (which also missed Documentary Feature).

Best Production Design

Nominees: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, Tenet

How I Did: 3/5

This is where Mank stands its greatest chance at a victory among the ten nods. The Father and Tenet (both kind of unexpected here) get in over The Midnight Sky and The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best Sound

Nominees: Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

I’ll take it and the winner will probably be the one with the category name in its title.

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Tenet

How I Did: 3/5

The One and Only Ivan was my runner-up. Love and Monsters, on the other hand, was not expected. They get in over Mank and Welcome to Chechnya. 

To recap, the following pictures nabbed these numbers in terms of nominations:

10 Nominations

Mank

6 Nominations

The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Promising Young Woman

4 Nominations

News of the World

3 Nominations

One Night in Miami, Soul

2 Nominations

Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Collective, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Pinocchio, Tenet

1 Nomination

Better Days, Crip Camp, Da 5 Bloods, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, Greyhound, The Life Ahead, Love and Monsters, The Man Who Sold His Skin, The Midnight Sky, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Time, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, The White Tiger, Wolfwalkers

Quick tidbits:

  • 12 of the 20 acting nominees are first-timers (Day, Kirby, Ahmed, Boseman, Yeun, Bakalova, Seyfried, Youn, Cohen, Odom, Raci, Stanfield)
  • 3 are previous nominees (Mulligan, Close, Kaluuya)
  • 5 are previous winners (Davis, McDormand, Hopkins, Oldman, Colman)
  • Of the five directors, only Fincher has been nominated before and none have won

So this begins the next phase of my Oscar predicting as I will do a “Case Of” post individually for all the Picture, Director, and acting nominees. Yes, that means 33 posts in the next several weeks where I outline the pros and cons of each nominee taking the gold or coming up cold. Stay tuned!