Tag: Wicked Part Two

Oscar Predictions: Wicked

Based on one of the 21st century’s most acclaimed theater productions from Stephen Schwartz, Wicked looks to bewitch audiences this Friday. Crazy Rich Asians director Jon M. Chu helms the reported $145 million production with Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande headlining. Costars include Jonathan Bailey, Ethan Slater, Bowen Yang, Marissa Bode, Peter Dinklage, Michelle Yeoh, and Jeff Goldblum.

Representing part 1 of the epic musical with its follow-up arriving next November, Wicked is expected to be a massive hit worldwide. With its box office fortunes appearing secure, lingering Oscar buzz was confirmed with today’s review embargo lift.

The Rotten Tomatoes score is 93% with Metacritic at 73. Technical noms were always a strong possibility. Costume Design (where it could win), Makeup and Hairstyling (same), Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects are all on the table. There are no original songs so that’s off the table.

A Best Picture nod certainly seems achievable and I had it listed 8th in last weekend’s update. That still seems about right. I don’t believe it’s guaranteed a slot, but its impending popularity gives the Academy a chance to honor a crowd favorite that many viewers have actually seen. Chu’s direction and the screenplay seem far less likely to make the cut.

On the performance front, Erivo will vie for Actress with Grande contending in supporting. Best Actress is super crowded and I’m skeptical Erivo gets her second nomination behind 2019’s Harriet. Grande, meanwhile, stands a better shot even though Supporting Actress has plenty of contenders as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Wicked Box Office Prediction

Universal is banking on Wicked casting a spell on a wide audience when it debuts November 22nd. Based on the Stephen Schwartz musical, the fantasy set in the land of Oz comes from Crazy Rich Asians director Jon M. Chu. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande headline with a supporting cast including Jonathan Bailey, Ethan Slater, Bowen Yang, Marissa Bode, Peter Dinklage, Michelle Yeoh, and Jeff Goldblum. The adaptation serves as part one with the sequel scheduled for November of 2025.

Expectations are high, especially after industry screenings that were met with Oscar buzz in Best Picture, Supporting Actress fo Grande, and numerous tech races. Moviegoers of all ages have familiarity with the Broadway show and, of course, The Wizard of Oz. There’s even some Barbenheimer chatter since it is opening on the same date as Gladiator II, which is also anticipated to perform well.

The forecasted range of its start is wide with some estimates less than $100 million, but going all the way up to $150 million. I’m skeptical it gets that high as some viewers may choose to wait until the extended Thanksgiving frame to check it out. Yet I do think it will easily clear nine digits out of the gate.

Wicked opening weekend prediction: $134.6 million

For my Gladiator II prediction, click here:

Gladiator II Box Office Prediction

For my Bonhoeffer prediction, click here:

Bonhoeffer Box Office Prediction