Tag: When the Game Stands Tall

Box Office Predictions: September 5-7

The first weekend of September is practically assured to be quite a tepid one at the box office as only one (low profile) release is being released, the faith based musical drama The Identical. For my detailed prediction post on it, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/31/the-identical-box-office-prediction/

That leaves summer holdovers to likely populate the top five once again, with superhero teams Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles continuing to hold the top spots. Not much more to say this week as it will be a boring movie weekend before some higher profile fall releases get underway soon.

With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 39%)

2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)

3. If I Stay

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. Let’s Be Cops

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. The November Man

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)

That would leave newbie The Identical with a predicted seventh place debut, just behind As Above/So Below.

Box Office Results (August 29-September 1)

As expected, the Labor Day weekend was a relatively quiet one as Guardians of the Galaxy remained in first with a four day haul of $22.9 million, just above my $21.1M projection. The Marvel phenomenon and summer 2014’s biggest grosser has amassed $281 million so far and should soon surpass $300M.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was again second with $15.6 million, below my generous $19.3M estimate. The reboot stands at an impressive $166M.

In its sophomore weekend, If I Stay was third with $11.7 million, below my once again generous $17.2M prediction. Its two week total is $32 million and it should finish out with less than $50M.

Fourth place belonged to Let’s Be Cops in its third weekend with $10.3 million, in line with my $11.4M estimate. The comedy has taken in $59M at press time and should reach $70M plus.

Opening in fifth was horror flick As Above/So Below with an unimpressive $10.2 million, just below my $11.8M projection. Below continued the 2014 trend of horror pics underwhelming, but its studio can take solace in that it only cost $5M to make.

The Pierce Brosnan spy film The November Man debuted just behind it with $10.1 million and $11.7 million since its Wednesday debut. It outdid my four day projection of $8.1M but its six day total was right in line with my $11M estimate. Tepid reviews didn’t help it.

Finally, sports drama When the Game Stands Tall was seventh in weekend #2 with $8.1 million, below my $9.8M projection. Its two week total stands at $18M and it’ll peter out at around $35 million at best.

That’s all for now, folks. Until next time!

 

Box Office Predictions: August 29-September 1

The fall movie season officially kicks off this Labor Day weekend with two new entries: the horror flick As Above, So Below and Pierce Brosnan spy thriller The November Man. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/24/as-above-so-below-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/24/the-november-man-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m predicting neither of the newbies will add much firepower to the box office. That leaves August’s megahits Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles likely to continue their reign at the top two positions. Keep in mind that my weekend projections this time around are for the four day holiday weekend and that means holdover pics often see an increase in dollars compared to the previous weekend. That holds true with my estimates for Guardians, TMNT, If I Stay, When the Game Stands Tall, and Let’s Be Cops.

And with that – we’ll do Top Seven predictions for the Labor Day frame:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $21.1 million (representing an increase of 23%)

2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million (representing an increase of 16%)

3. If I Stay

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million (representing an increase of 11%)

4. As Above, So Below

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

5. Let’s Be Cops

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing an increase of 6%)

6. When the Game Stands Tall

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing an increase of 19%)

7. The November Man

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (Friday to Monday projection), $11 million (Wednesday to Monday projection)

Box Office Results (August 22-24)

As the summer movie season drew to a close, there were two big stories: Guardians of the Galaxy became the season’s biggest grosser and Sin City: A Dame to Kill For had one of the worst debuts in recent memory.

Marvel’s Guardians vaulted back to the #1 spot after two weeks behind Ninja Turtles. The blockbuster took in $17.2 million, outshining my $15M estimate. It’s taken in $251 million so far and therefore passed Transformers: Age of Extinction as the King of Summer Movies.

Ninja Turtles slipped to second with $16.7 million, holding up considerably better than my $12.7M prediction. In three weeks, the reboot has amassed $145 million and it should surpass $175M when all is said and done.

The YA pic If I Stay got off to a decent start with $15.6 million – ahead of my $12.1M projection. Many prognosticators had it opening #1, but two teams of venerable superheroes prevented that from happening.

Somewhat surprisingly, Let’s Be Cops only dropped a respectable 39% in its sophomore frame and placed fourth with $10.8 million. I incorrectly didn’t place it in the top five and its two week total stands at $45M. It should reach $75M, which is great considering its meager budget.

The sports drama When the Game Stands Tall earned $8.3 million for a fair fifth place opening, right in range with my $9M projection. With a solid A- Cinemascore grade, it should hold up well next weekend.

And this brings us to Sin City: A Dame to Kill For. Let’s get this out of the way: I had it opening #1 with $20.8 million. Ummm…. oops!

Arriving nearly ten years after the original, Dame performed a fantastically bad box office belly flop with only $6.3 million for a pathetic eighth place debut. Simply put, even though the first was generally well-received, its sequel registered barely any audience interest. Dame easily qualifies as one of 2014’s biggest bombs.

And that’s all for now, folks!

 

Box Office Predictions: August 22-24

This weekend three new pictures will try to unseat Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy, which have held the 1-2 positions for the past two weeks. They are Sin City: A Dame to Kill For, following its predecessor by nearly a decade, YA pic If I Stay, and sports drama When the Game Stands Tall. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/sin-city-a-dame-to-kill-for-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/if-i-stay-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/when-the-game-stands-tall-box-office-prediction/

I believe Sin City will do well enough to top the charts and don’t expect much out of Stay or Game, which I have opening at four and five. If either of those newbies go below my estimates, it may allow holdovers Let’s Be Cops or The Expendables 3 to remain in the top five. However, my projections do not reflect that. I’m also predicting that Guardians will remain at the #2 spot due to a lower percentage drop than Turtles.

And with that – my top five estimates for the weekend:

1. Sin City: A Dame to Kill For

Predicted Gross: $20.8 million

2. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $15 million (representing a drop of 40%)

3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)

4. If I Stay

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

5. When the Game Stands Tall

Predicted Gross: $9 million

Box Office Results (August 15-17)

As predicted, holdovers Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy remained atop the charts. TMNT stayed first for its second weekend with $28.5 million, holding up slightly better than my $25.7M estimate. The successful franchise reboot has earned $117 million so far and should reach close to $175M. Guardians took in $25.1 million in weekend 3, barely topping my $24.1M projection. The Marvel juggernaut stands at $222 million and is on its way to be 2014’s highest grosser… until Mockingjay – Part 1 is unleashed.

The poorly reviewed comedy Let’s Be Cops got off to a decent start with $17.8 million over the traditional weekend and $26.2 million since its Wednesday debut. Its Friday to Sunday take was right in line with my $17.7M prediction while its five-day was higher than my $23.4M guesstimate. With a weak B Cinemascore grade, expect Cops to fade quickly though.

Bad box office news keeps on coming for Sylvester Stallone as The Expendables 3 bombed with only $15.8 million, below my $21.5M prediction. The all-star action franchise has clearly lost its steam and a fourth entry seems doubtful at this juncture.

The YA adaption The Giver with Jeff Bridges and Meryl Streep had a lackluster result with $12.3 million – though it did exceed my $11M projection.

And that’s all for now, folks!

 

When the Game Stands Tall Box Office Prediction

The sports drama When the Game Stands Tall opens Friday, in conjunction with football season starting up. Inspired by a true story, the TriStar release focuses on a high school’s team 151 game winning streak and stars Jim Caviezel, Laura Dern, and Michael Chiklis. Thomas Carter, who directed one successful similar genre pic Coach Carter with Samuel L. Jackson, is behind the camera.

Earlier this summer, another sports pic Million Dollar Arm starring Jon Hamm, stumbled out of the gate with only a $10.5 million opening. That picture had Disney behind it and a more recognizable star. If Arm performed badly, it’s tough to see how this breaks through with audiences. Unless the timing of its release helps, Tall is probably primed for a subpar opening. There’s also the issue of many high school football fans might, you know, actually be watching a high school football game this Friday night.

When the Game Stands Tall opening weekend prediction: $9 million

For my Sin City: A Dame to Kill For prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/sin-city-a-dame-to-kill-for-box-office-prediction/

For my If I Stay prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/if-i-stay-box-office-prediction/