Tag: Warner Bros.

31st Critics’ Choice Awards Nominations Reaction

The Critics’ Choice Awards revealed their nominees prior to the January 4th airing. It is rightfully seen a decent Oscar bellwether whose Best Picture nominees recently match with around 8 or 9 of the 10 contenders from the Academy. Before I walk through each race with brief commentary (and how I did), I will note that CCA can be unpredictable in how nominees are nominated. Example – nominees in the Best Foreign Language Film, Comedy, and maybe Animated Feature competitions cannot also be up for Best Picture. That’s a newer development that I wasn’t aware of and it helps explain my poor performance in the Comedy derby.

As expected, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners led the way with 17 mentions and One Battle After Another as runner-up with 14. Both are Warner Bros properties. Of course, WB dominated the headlines for a different reason today due to Netflix’s apparent acquisition of the legendary studio.

Frankenstein and Hamnet were next with 11 nods apiece while Wicked: For Good and definitely Avatar: Fire and Ash struggled.

Overall I went 115 for 142 in my picks. Per above, 5 of those 27 misses came in Best Comedy (I’m still sore about it…). I did go 6 for 6 in 6 categories. Let’s go through the various competitions with my quick initial takes, shall we?

Picture

Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 9/10

Bugonia (which was my alternate) gets in over Avatar: Fire and Ash which managed just one (obvious) nomination. Get used to hearing this in the awards coverage, but One Battle After Another (OBAA) sure seems like the pic to beat unless precursors drastically shift the narrative.

Director

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

How I Did: 5/6

My alternate Trier makes the sextet instead of Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident). I was pretty surprised Panahi (who’s picked up precursors) didn’t get in. BP should match Director and that’s good news for Mr. Anderson though Coogler or Zhao could pose threats.

Actress

Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

Seyfried who was, yes, my alternate is in with Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) not finding a home in the lineup. This a major miss for Erivo. I was leaning toward taking her out of my Oscar lineup in my next update and this could help solidify that hunch. As for the winner, Actress is generally seen as the easiest of the four acting races to call and it’s for Buckley.

Actor

Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

This probably comes down to Chalamet vs. DiCaprio with Moura as a possible spoiler.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

How I Did: 6/6

An unpredictable race where I managed to get the nominees right. It’s tough to project Grande taking this with her costar missing. Taylor might be the slight favorite though I wouldn’t discount Madigan.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

How I Did: 5/6

I forecasted a slight upset with Delroy Lindo (Sinners) in and not Elordi, who was (of course) my alternate. Another tough call as either Battle boy is viable but Skarsgård could emerge.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Sorry, Baby, Weapons

How I Did: 5/6

Sorry, Baby in over It Was Just an Accident in another significant omission. This should be Value vs. Sinners.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

I’ll note that No Other Choice, like international counterpart Accident, had a somewhat ho-hum day. OBAA should be victorious.

Foreign Language Film

Nominees: Belén, It Was Just an Accident, Left-Handed Girl, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât

How I Did: 4/6

This is where I was unaware Value wouldn’t qualify since it was in the BP ten. It is out along with The Voice of Hind Rajab in favor of Belén and Left-Handed Girl. Accident might win despite the middling performance though Agent is a considerable threat.

Animated Feature

Nominees: Arco, Elio, In Your Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 4/6

Elio and In Your Dreams over Ne Zha 2 and Scarlet. CCA is unlikely to ignore the massive hit KPop. If they do, they’ll go with massive hit Zootopia 2.

Comedy

Nominees: The Ballad of Wallis Island, Eternity, Friendship, The Naked Gun, The Phoenician Scheme, Splitsville

How I Did: 1/6

Yeah… per my frustration above, I didn’t know BP nominees weren’t eligible. That’s why Phoenician is my only correct pick as I had BP contenders Bugonia, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, and OBAA. The other was Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery and it was totally blanked. I’ll lean toward Phoenician but Naked Gun and maybe Friendship could get this.

Casting and Ensemble

Nominees: Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

This is a WB showdown between OBAA and Sinners.

Cinematography

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

How I Did: 5/6

F1 instead of Marty Supreme (which missed a couple of expected tech nods). This may also be an OBAA vs. Sinners race though Train Dreams could spoil.

Costume Design

Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/6

Hamnet and Hedda in; Marty Supreme and OBAA out with Frankenstein and Wicked as the frontrunners.

Editing

Nominees: A House of Dynamite, F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Sinners

How I Did: 5/6

The surprise here is Neighbor, which is seen as a likely nominee and potential Oscar winner for Documentary Feature, getting in (I had No Other Choice instead). Could the Academy notice? As for the probable winner – OBAA.

Hair and Makeup

Nominees: 28 Years Later, Frankenstein, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, Weapons, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Apparently I know my Hair and Makeup. Note this is the only nod for Machine (sorry Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt). Like Costume Design, Frankenstein and Wicked are win friendliest.

Production Design

Nominees: The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 5/6

Another potential Frankenstein/Wicked showdown. I had Avatar and not Fantastic Four.

Score

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 4/6

F1 (which had a nice day with 7 noms) and Frankenstein over A House of Dynamite and Bugonia. Think Sinners here or maybe OBAA.

Song

“Drive” from F1; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/6

“Drive” and “Clothed” make the musical cut over “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless and “Highest 2 Lowest” from the same titled film. Like in Animated Feature, the voters may go with KPop.

Sound

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât, Warfare

How I Did: 4/6

Sirât and Warfare heard their names called over Avatar and Wicked: For Good (another notable miss). Don’t be surprised if F1 captures this.

Stunt Design

Nominees: Ballerina, F1, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Tough one but CCA might go with Cruise and company in his franchise finale.

Visual Effects

Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Superman

How I Did: 4/6

Finally, Avatar is nominated! And it will probably win though who knows considering the underwhelming performance. Fantastic Four and Wicked miss with Mission and Sinners in.

Young Actor/Actress

Nominees: Everett Blunck (The Plague), Miles Caton (Sinners), Cary Christopher (Weapons), Shannon Mahina Gorman (Rental Family), Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet), Nina Ye (Left-Handed Girl)

How I Did: 4/6

I had Aidan Delbis (Bugonia) and Actress nominee Chase Infiniti (OBAA) in this and not Gorman or Ye. I suspect this is between Caton and Jupe.

Below is the nomination count and I’ll have final predictions up shortly before the ceremony. Keep an eye on the blog this weekend for final Golden Globe predictions (out Monday).

17 Nominations

Sinners

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

11 Nominations

Frankenstein, Hamnet

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme

7 Nominations

F1, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

5 Nominations

Train Dreams

4 Nominations

Jay Kelly, Weapons

3 Nominations

Bugonia

2 Nominations

KPop Demon Hunters, Left-Handed Girl, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât, The Testament of Ann Lee, Warfare

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, A House of Dynamite, Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Ballerina, Belén, Blue Moon, Elio, Eternity, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Friendship, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, In Your Dreams, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Naked Gun, The Perfect Neighbor, The Phoenician Scheme, The Plague, Rental Family, The Smashing Machine, Sorry, Baby, Splitsville, Superman, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions: One Battle After Another

Based on the first trailer five months ago, I didn’t know what to make of Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. I had it parked in 11th (just on the outside looking in) in Best Picture for weeks. A few days ago, early word-of-mouth emerged that it was something special and today’s lapsing of the review embargo accentuates the buzz. Out September 26th, Battle has established itself as a major awards player. Leonardo DiCaprio headlines a cast including Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti in her first big screen role.

A mix of different genres including action, comedy and thriller fused with political commentary, Battle stands at a noteworthy 96% on Rotten Tomatoes with 97 on Metacritic. It is highly possible this will be the best reviewed picture of 2025. When I updated my predictions four days ago, I ranked this 1st in Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay. Nothing I see today changes that dynamic. Instead it enhances it. This would mark Anderson’s fourth BP nominee with the others being 2007’s There Will Be Blood, 2017’s Phantom Thread and 2021’s Licorice Pizza (he was nominated for his direction with all three as well). Anderson would be up for his sixth screenwriting prize after Boogie Nights, Magnolia, Blood, Inherent Vice and Pizza. He has yet to take home gold and that may be about to change.

Nominations down the line in Casting, Cinematography, Editing, Original Score (by Jonny Greenwood) and perhaps Sound could be in the mix. Warner Bros is going to have their hands full campaigning for this and Sinners in multiple races against one another. The studio may end up racking up a host of victories between the two.

Moving to the ensemble, DiCaprio will be vying for his seventh at bat (his sole win came for 2015’s The Revenant). His placement in lead Actor is not guaranteed. Simply put, plenty of voters may take him for granted. He wasn’t nominated for his two titles that won BP (Titanic and The Departed). Nevertheless the film’s momentum may get him in the quintet.

For months, prognosticators have wondered whether Hall, Taylor or Infiniti will be the smart play in Supporting Actress. Reaction suggests Taylor is the most likely to make the cut, but that Infiniti could do so as well.

Mr. Penn (a two-time Best Actor recipient for 2003’s Mystic River and 2008’s Milk) looks to nab his inaugural Supporting Actor mention and sixth nom overall. It would be his first since Milk seventeen years ago.

Bottom line: it could be said that Sinners, Hamnet and Sentimental Value all have win narratives for the biggest prize of all. Now we certainly have Another. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

September 5-7 Box Office Predictions

One Warner Bros horror flick looks to transfer the #1 spot to another as The Conjuring: Last Rites haunts multiplexes this weekend. We also have Disney releasing their filmed version of the Broadway play Hamilton. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The Conjuring: Last Rites Box Office Prediction
Hamilton Box Office Prediction

My mid 50s projection for Last Rites gives it the best opening of the franchise, just outpacing 2018’s The Nun and toppling the $40 million and change starts that the first two proper Conjuring flicks scared up. As mentioned, it will easily replace the WB’s Weapons from its Labor Day weekend perch atop the charts.

Hamilton is a tricky one. It could easily outdo my high single digits forecast, but it’s hard to ignore that audiences have been able to view it on Disney+ for five years. No matter what, it should manage a runner-up debut.

Weapons should place third while 4-5 could be awfully close between Caught Stealing and Freakier Friday.

Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Predicted Gross: $58.2 million

2. Hamilton

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

3. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

4. Caught Stealing

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

Box Office Results (August 29-September 1)

In a rather quiet Labor Day frame, Weapons returned to #1 with KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event having completed its two-day engagement from the previous frame. Zach Cregger’s missing persons scare fest took in $13 million, falling short of my $15.9 million call over the four-day holiday. The four-week total is $135 million.

Jaws 50th Anniversary swam past my expectations with $11.3 million for second, more than doubling my $5.6 million prediction. Crowds clearly were down for revisiting the shark tale.

Austin Butler crime thriller Caught Stealing nabbed a so-so $9.5 million in third and that was more than my $6.3 million projection.

Freakier Friday was fourth with $8.7 million, in range with my $9.4 million estimate for a four-week tally of $82 million.

Comedic remake The Roses with Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman settled for fifth with $7.7 million, in line with my $7.9 million guesstimate.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps was sixth with $6.5 million (I said $6.1 million) for $266 million after six weeks.

Finally, The Toxic Avenger Unrated with Peter Dinklage didn’t crack the top 10 at $2.1 million. I went with $1.8 million.

And that does it now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Fixed

Netflix has put out Fixed this week and it marks the first R rated animation effort from Sony. Genndy Tartakovsky, best known for helming the Hotel Transylvania franchise, directs. The voice cast for the tale of a dog about to be neutered includes Adam DeVine, Idris Elba, Kathryn Hahn, Fred Armisen, Beck Bennett, and Bobby Moynihan.

Originally set for distribution by Warner Bros until they cut it loose, Netflix picked up the rights and reviews are mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 63% with Metacritic at only 51. If Sausage Party couldn’t break into the Academy’s Animated Feature quintet with better marks, that leaves little hope for this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

August 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Action sequel Nobody 2 starring Bob Odenkirk is the only wide release vying for a spot in the top five this weekend as Weapons aims to repeat in first place. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:

Nobody 2 Box Office Prediction

The first Nobody in 2021 premiered as COVID was presenting challenges to theaters. The follow-up is expected to build upon on the original’s numbers. I still question whether this gets to teens and I am putting it a shade under. That likely means a third place showing.

Weapons from Zach Cregger had a spectacular debut (more on that below). With an A- Cinemascore (impressive for the genre), its sophomore dip could be less pronounced than other summer offerings. Lack of competition should also help. I will warn that my drop-off projections have been a bit generous lately. Yet I’ll say a low to mid 40s ease should mean a mid 20s gross and that leaves it in first with room to spare.

As for Freakier Friday, it could fall more than 50% and still remain in second. Holdovers The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 should round out the high five. Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

2. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $13 million

3. Nobody 2

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

5. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (August 8-10)

Weapons capitalized on its intriguing trailer and laudatory reviews, dominating the chart with $43.5 million. That’s way ahead of my meager $28.8 million take and another 2025 winner for Warner Bros. While I don’t see it legging out like Sinners (another WB property), the road ahead should be fruitful.

Disney’s Freakier Friday with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan had to settle for second with $28.5 million. That’s on the lower end of its expected range and a bit below my $32.5 million prediction. It’ll hope for family audiences to keep it afloat in the coming weeks. That could be a tall order with its intended audience going back to school.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps, after two weeks at #1, was third with $15.7 million. The near 60% plummet (again) was under my $18.9 million estimate and the reboot stands at $230 million.

The Bad Guys 2 was fourth with $10.5 million in its second go-round. Once again I was more generous at $13.6 million. The animated sequel has made $43 million and is likely to fall short of its predecessor’s domestic tally ($97 million).

The Naked Gun rounded out the top five with $8.3 million and I said it would do $10 million. The two-week total is $32 million.

Finally, Sketch from Angel Studios debuted in lowly 10th place with $2.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.9 million since its Wednesday bow. I went with $3.9 million and $5.8 million, respectively.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Superman

James Gunn’s Superman reboot flies into theaters this weekend with a new franchise on the line for Warner Bros and high expectations. Davin Corenswet plays the title character with Rachel Brosnahan as Lois Lane and Nicholas Hoult portraying Lex Luthor. Other costars include Edi Gathergi, Anthony Carrigan, Nathan Fillion, Isabela Merced, Pruitt Taylor Vince, Neva Howell, Wendell Pierce, and Skyler Gisondo.

It arrives 47 years after the Christopher Reeve saga, which won a special award for its Visual Effects and was also up for its editing and classic score from John Williams. Three sequels failed to generate any nominations. 2006 reboot Superman Returns was up for its visuals, falling short to Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest. The Zack Snyder Supes flicks (Man of Steel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice) did not factor into the Oscar mix.

Will Gunn’s take on the icon generate awards chatter? The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 84% with 71 on Metacritic. Critics are all over the place on which cast members shine brightest (though there’s general agreement that Corenswet is strong). That said, above-the-line nods are a major long shot. Gunn is no stranger to the VE competition as all three of his MCU Guardians of the Galaxy features were nominated. This is where Superman has the strongest chance at a nod with Sound and Makeup & Hairstyling less probable. I don’t think inclusion in VE is automatic though don’t be surprised if it populates one of the five slots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Superman Box Office Prediction

After bringing lesser known superheroes to box office dominance over a decade ago, James Gunn helms a reboot with perhaps the most iconic one via Superman starting July 11th. Warner Bros hopes the latest reboot of the Man of Steel saga flies high with David Corenswet donning the tights, Rachel Brosnahan playing Lois Lane, and Nicholas Hoult handling villainous duties as Lex Luthor. The supporting cast includes Edi Gathergi, Anthony Carrigan, Nathan Fillion, Isabela Merced, Pruitt Taylor Vince, Neva Howell, Skyler Gisondo, and Wendell Pierce.

With a reported budget of $225 million, hopes are high for the summer tentpole. Gunn’s contribution as director is in addition to his duties as head of DC Studios. He was given the role after successfully handling three Guardians of the Galaxy features for the MCU. Counting Supergirl, this marks the 10th overall feature in the Supes series that began in 1978.

The best opening of the bunch is 2016’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice which kicked off with $166 million. #2 on the board is 2013’s last proper restart Man of Steel, which made $116 million in its inaugural weekend. Opening above Justice would be a massive victory for WB while debuting below Steel would be a disappointment.

I’m guessing the opening will be somewhere in between, but closer to Steel than Justice.

Superman opening weekend prediction: $128.6 million

May 23-26 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.

Hollywood hopes moviegoers make it their mission to go to the movies over the long weekend as Disney’s Lilo & Stitch looks to rule the charts with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning placing second. There’s also The Last Rodeo from faith-based Angel Studios debuting and Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd’s dark comedy Friendship expanding wide. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet can be accessed here:

Lilo & Stitch Box Office Prediction
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning Box Office Prediction
The Last Rodeo Box Office Prediction
Friendship Box Office Prediction

Nostalgia and the Mouse House’s marketing muscle should propel Lilo & Stitch to more impressive heights than, say, Snow White from earlier this year. I have the live-action version of the 2002 animated tale reaching just under $120 million for the Friday to Sunday portion of Memorial Day weekend and just over $140 million for the four-day.

Tom Cruise should easily achieve runner-up status with the eighth and (final?) pic in his nearly 30-year-old franchise. I am estimating that The Final Reckoning will somewhat capitalize on its finale status with a three-day near $60 million (edging predecessor Dead Reckoning) and north of $70 million counting Monday.

The Last Rodeo could place sixth while I have Friendship in 7th place. Either has the chance to over perform, but I doubt it considering the amount of competition.

As for holdovers, Final Destination Bloodlines got off to a terrific start (more on that below), but should experience the hefty decline that usually greets horror titles. Holdovers The New Avengers, Sinners, and Minecraft should see minimal declines as is custom over this particular holiday.

And with that, here’s my top 8 take and keep in mind that grosses for returning flicks are a Friday to Monday forecast:

1. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $196.6 million (Friday to Monday); $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday)

2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Monday); $64.4 million (Friday to Sunday)

3. Final Destination Bloodlines

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

4. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

5. The New Avengers

Predicted Gross: $14 million

6. The Last Rodeo

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (Friday to Monday); $6.4 million (Friday to Sunday)

7. Friendship

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (Friday to Monday); $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday)

8. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (May 16-18)

As mentioned, Final Destination Bloodlines logged a far better than anticipated gross with $51.6 million. That’s easily the best premiere in the 25-year-old franchise and should kickstart plenty more Destination‘s to come. It surpassed my $42.2 million prediction and represents another success story for WB behind A Minecraft Movie and Sinners.

The New Avengers/Thunderbolts* fell to second after two weeks on top with $16.6 million, a tad shy of my $18.1 million prediction. The MCU adventure sits at $155 million after three weeks.

Sinners was third with $15.2 million (I said $15.9 million) as it has now bitten off $240 million in its five weeks.

A Minecraft Movie was fourth with $5.9 million compared to my $5.2 million call as the mega blockbuster has made $416 million after seven weeks.

The Accountant 2 rounded out the top five with $4.7 million, on target with my $4.6 million number. The sequel’s total is $58 million in four weeks.

Finally, critically drubbed Hurry Up Tomorrow starring The Weeknd stumbled in sixth with $3.3 million and that’s under my $4.5 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 16-18 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (05/14): Two days before its premiere, I am doing a significant upgrade on Final Destinaition from $35.2 million to $44.2 million

Final Destination Bloodlines looks to inject some life into multiplexes with the franchise returning after 14 dormant years. We also have music superstar Abel Tesfaye (better known as The Weeknd) headlining the musical thriller Hurry Up Tomorrow. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Final Destination Bloodlines Box Office Prediction
Hurry Up Tomorrow Box Office Prediction

Bloodlines should be another winner for Warner Bros after the massive success of A Minecraft Movie and Sinners (the studio might account for 60 percent of the high 5 this weekend). I have the sixth entry in the series achieving the strongest start yet in the mid 30s.

As for Hurry Up Tomorrow (which also costars Jenna Ortega and Barry Keoghan), it’s tricky to figure how many of The Weeknd’s fans will turn out this week(e)nd. Buzz seems quiet and it could fall anywhere between fourth and sixth place.

The New Avengers (recently known as Thunderbolts*) should drop to the runner-up slot after two weeks on top. The MCU adventure may see a dip in the low to mid 40s. Sinners looks to place third while Minecraft and The Accountant 2 could duke it out for 4th (depending on where Tomorrow falls).

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. Final Destination Bloodlines

Predicted Gross: $42.2 million

2. The New Avengers

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million

3. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million

4. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

5. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. Hurry Up Tomorrow

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

Box Office Results (May 9-11)

The New Avengers had a rather typical MCU slide at 56% with $32.3 million in its second outing. That’s on pace with my $33.8 million call. The decline is a bit more than Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings with 54% but not as steep as the 62% that befell Eternals.

Sinners held firm in second with $22.1 million, a tad shy of my $24 million prediction. Ryan Coogler’s latest has bitten off $215 million after four weeks.

A Minecraft Movie was third with $7.6 million (I said $8.9 million) as the blockbuster stands at a mighty $408 million in its six weeks of play.

The Accountant 2 held better than I assumed in weekend #3 with $6.7 million compared to my $4.6 million estimate. Ben Affleck’s sequel is up to $51 million.

Finally, I didn’t do a projection for micro-budgeted slasher flick Clown in a Cornfield. Yet it managed to be fifth with $3.6 million on over 2000 screens.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Final Destination Bloodlines Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (05/14): Two days before its premiere, I am doing an upgrade to my prediction from $35.2 million to $42.2 million

A quarter century after the original kicked off a fresh horror franchise, Final Destination Bloodlines logs into multiplexes on May 16th. The sixth Destination and first in nearly 14 years is co-directed by Zach Lipovsky and Adam Stein. Kaitlyn Santa Juana, Teo Briones, Richard Harmon, Owen Patrick Joyner, Anna Lore, Brec Bassinger, and the late Tony Todd make up the cast.

Warner Bros (hot off blockbusters A Minecraft Movie and Sinners) could have another success on their hands. Enough time has passed between entries that a nostalgia factor may be in play. It doesn’t hurt that competition is minimal as some heavier hitters are waiting until Memorial Day weekend and June.

The highest series opening belongs to 2009’s The Final Destination as that fourth entry started with $27 million. I believe Bloodlines should match or top that. My gut says take the over (UPDATE: way over)…

Final Destination Bloodlines opening weekend prediction: $42.2 million

For my Hurry Up Tomorrow prediction, click here:

Hurry Up Tomorrow Box Office Prediction