In case you didn’t know, Disney and animation seem to go pretty well together most of the time and this Friday, the studio rolls out Big Hero 6. Based on a Marvel comic, the superhero comedy will attempt to debut at #1 amid strong competition from Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi epic Interstellar.
It’s got a very good shot. Disney animation has been on a massive hot streak lately and their 2013 fall entry, Frozen, took in $400 million domestically. Big Hero 6 is getting solid reviews from critics and it currently sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The $150 million budgeted feature seems unlikely to gross the $67 million that Frozen managed last November, though it’s certainly not out of the question. I do, however, feel it should have no problem topping the $49 million earned by Wreck-It Ralph in 2012.
My prediction reflects a belief that Big Hero 6 should manage a healthy debut with a long and prosperous run ahead. And I do believe it will open #1, just over Interstellar.
Big Hero 6 opening weekend prediction: $61.4 million
Walt Disney studios have given their latest effort one important distinction on this blog as Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day is easily the longest title I’ve yet to make a box office projection for. Based on a well-known 1972 children’s book, Steve Carell and Jennifer Garner headline the adaptation which Disney hopes will capture the attention of family audiences.
The film chronicles the Cooper family’s day with all those negative adjectives listed above. In Disney’s favor is that competition for younger moviegoers is fairly light, even though The Boxtrolls and The Maze Runner are still performing well. Critical reaction has been positive so far with an 83% score on Rotten Tomatoes at press time.
I am not expecting Alexander to be a huge performer out of the gate, but it’s likely to open decently and have sturdy legs in subsequent weekends. This certainly could surpass the $20 million mark in weekend 1, but I’ll project it falls just under that.
Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million
Saving Mr. Banks is a product from Walt Disney Studios that focuses on the making of one of their beloved classics, 1964’s Mary Poppins. It stars Emma Thompson as author P.L. Travers and Tom Hanks as Walt Disney himself and comes from The Blind Side director John Lee Hancock. The supporting cast includes Colin Farrell and Paul Giamatti. Banks has earned Oscar buzz for Best Picture and for the performances of Ms. Thompson and Mr. Hanks.
With a reported budget of just a meager $35 million, this seems primed to have a nice run throughout the holiday season. Reviews have mostly been positive as it stands at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. With its recognizable stars and focus on a very well-known classic, Banks could play to adults and children alike.
The main question as far as its opening is whether Banks will start big out of the gate or be more of a slow burner with smallish drop-offs from weekend to weekend. My gut tells me that the latter is a better possibility. There is plenty of competition this weekend for adult moviegoers – Anchorman 2, American Hustle – and for younger audiences – The Hobbit in weekend #2, Walking with Dinosaurs.
If Banks earns over $20 million this weekend (which is certainly possible), that should be considered quite an accomplishment. My estimate puts it a bit below that, though I think future weekends should be kind to it.
Saving Mr. Banks opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million
For my Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues prediction, click here:
In 1993, Tom Hanks literally made a dramatic shift to more serious projects with Philadelphia, which brought the AIDS epidemic front and center to a more mainstream audience. For his performance, Hanks won an Oscar and forever changed moviegoers perceptions of him from a comedic actor to a jack of all trades.
The following year, Forrest Gump turned into a smash hit and Hanks would win his second Best Actor trophy in a row (a feat that hadn’t been accomplished since Spencer Tracy in the late 1930s). The rest of the 1990s would see the performer headlining one prestige project after another that connected with critics and audiences alike. Apollo 13. Saving Private Ryan. The Green Mile. Cast Away. In addition, he starred in a pair of hit rom coms with Meg Ryan – Sleepless in Seattle and You’ve Got Mail.
The last decade or so for Hanks could be described as spotty at best. After a mostly well-received turn in Sam Mendes’ Prohibition era pic Road to Perdition (where he cast against type as a hitman), there was Steven Spielberg’s The Terminal, which failed to make a major impression with audiences. The actor’s biggest financial successes were with adaptations of Dan Brown novels, 2006’s The Da Vinci Code and 2009’s Angels and Demons. Neither pictures were particularly beloved by critics. Of course, there was also the animated smash hit Toy Story 3 in 2010. And a supporting turn in Catch Me If You Can, another collabo with Spielberg that turned out well. However, there were disappointments as well. 2004’s Coen Bros remake The Ladykillers was a box office disappointment. 2007’s Charlie Wilson’s War was expected to be an Oscar player, but wasn’t. His directorial effort Larry Crowne costarring Julia Roberts didn’t resonate with audiences or critics. And last year’s Cloud Atlas was a financial dud domestically.
Two decades after Hanks achieved double Oscar glory, 2013 will be seen as a return to form. October’s Captain Phillips (the tale of the 2009 Somali hijacking incident) earned the actor his best reviews in years. The project (from director Paul Greengrass) gives Hanks his greatest chance for an Oscar nod in the last 13 years. He hasn’t been recognized by the Academy since 2000’s Cast Away. Audiences responded well to Phillips, too. It’s earned $102 million domestically at press time.
Captain Phillips would probably be enough to earn Hanks a spot in this blog series, but there’s another feature coming this month that should only add to his solid year. John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks casts Hanks (recently named America’s most trusted person in America) as iconic studio head Walt Disney. The film focuses on the making of 1964’s Mary Poppins and stars Emma Thompson as author P.L. Travers. Attention is already focused on Hanks receiving a Best Supporting Actor nod for his turn as Disney. If that happens, the performer may well be a double nominee as this year’s ceremony. Banks also seems likely to be a commercial hit.
While the last few years have been a mixed bag commercially and critically for Mr. Trustworthy, audiences and critics (and probably Oscar voters) entrusted Hanks at a level in 2013 not seen in a while. Hanks has no projects lined up for release in 2014, though expect Toy Story 4 and The Lost Symbol (another Dan Brown adaptation) in the future.
Part three of my six-part series on performers who had a profound impact in the movies in 2013 continues tomorrow with an actress who gave a performance that was literally out of this world.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 