Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and continues today with Supporting Actress. If you missed my write-up on Supporting Actor, you can find it here:
I published my first preview of the Supporting Actress field on April 6th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Let’s dispense with a couple of those names. Angelina LookingGlass’s heralded work in The Rivals of Amziah King has not been scheduled for 2025. At this point, I’m assuming it will come out in 2026.
After the Hunt has lost its awards luster after a poor commercial and critical reaction. While her costar Julia Roberts may have a long shot chance at making the Actress cut, I don’t see the same for Edebiri.
The other three names are very much viable. Ariana Grande was nominated last year as Glinda the Good Witch and was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez). While For Good has yet to screen, it stands to reason that she could make a return to the lineup. I’ve had her ranked first the whole year and we’ll see if that remains when word-of-mouth comes in.
Teyana Taylor’s performance dominates the first third of One Battle After Another (arguably the BP frontrunner). That should be enough for her to be the most likely Supporting Actor nominee in the film and we’ll get to Regina Hall shortly.
Gwyneth Paltrow is not a guaranteed competitor like her costar Timothée Chalamet is in lead actor. However, her work in Marty Supreme is definitely viable in this unformed race. The same could be said for her costar Odessa A’Zion though I’d put Paltrow ahead.
My 10 other possibilities that I listed back in April are:
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Greta Lee, Late Fame
Nia Long, Michael
Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Let’s start with Regina Hall. When it was announced that Chase Infiniti would compete in lead Actress for Battle, it opened the door for Hall. I maintain that she’s behind her costar Taylor. I currently have her on the outside looking in, but wouldn’t be surprised if she hears her name called. In the 21st century, we’ve seen double nominees in this category 10 out of 25 times. The last example was 2022 when Jamie Lee Curtis won for Everything Everywhere All at Once while her cast mate Stephanie Hsu was also up. The other times were as follows:
2000: Frances McDormand and Kate Hudson, Almost Famous
2001: Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith, Gosford Park
2002: Catherine Zeta-Jones (winner) and Queen Latifah, Chicago
2006: Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
2008: Amy Adams and Viola Davis, Doubt
2009: Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
2010: Melissa Leo (winner) and Amy Adams, The Fighter
2011: Octavia Spencer (winner) and Jessica Chastain, The Help
2018: Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Another possibility of two nominees from the same pictures lies with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) and her costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. The former seems marginally more likely but Lilleass is absolutely a threat to make the quintet.
A third possibility of two actresses from one feature is Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld from Sinners. That’s a more remote possibility and the film would really have to over perform for either to get in.
Back to those 10 other possibilities. Michael was pushed to 2026 so there goes Nia Long. Laura Dern, America Ferrera, Greta Lee and Emily Watson are all long shots at best after their movies screened. For Dern and Watson, they could see some of their costars nominated.
Emily Blunt could factor in if she manages SAG or Critics Choice or a Globe nod. Yet The Smashing Machine was a major box office flop and that doesn’t help. The same logic applies to Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman.
Glenn Close is arguably considered the best thespian who hasn’t won an Oscar despite eight attempts. That could help her cause in Rian Johnon’s latest murder mystery, but none of the actors from Knives Out and Glass Onion made it despite respective buzz for Ana de Armas and Janelle Monae.
One name not on my radar in April was Amy Madigan in Weapons. The summer sleeper gave the veteran actress an unforgettably creepy role that should inspire many a Halloween costume next week. I’m starting to really think she could find herself in the quintet.
So there you have it, readers! I would say Grande, Taylor, Fanning, Lilleass, Madigan, Paltrow and Hall are the seven likeliest contestants with potential surprises including Close, Lopez, Blunt and Mosaku. I will zone in on Best Actor in the next write-up!
They say a picture is worth a thousand words and it is apparently worth millions upon millions of votes in G20. A shot of now President Danielle Sutton (Viola Davis) rescuing a child during the Iraq War two decades earlier is what prompted her rise to the highest office in the land. This picture is not really about that. Instead it’s a run-of-the-mill streamer that fails to capitalize on its casting or location.
We first meet President Sutton in the throws of a domestic crisis. Her teenage daughter Serena (Marsai Martin) has slipped past the security perimeter of the White House to go clubbing and the media picked up on it. The mother-daughter drama shifts to South Africa as they travel there for the title summit. The First Gentleman (Anthony Anderson) and Serena’s little brother (Christopher Farrar) accompany.
Other members of the Presidential entourage included lead Secret Service agent Manny (Ramón Rodriguez) and the Treasury Secretary (Elizabeth Marvel) while the VP (Clark Gregg) is back stateside. If you don’t figure out who might not have POTUS’s best interests in mind early on, you might fail 101 in this cinematic universe.
Mercenary Edward Rutledge (Antony Starr of The Boys and Twitter meme fame) and his band of goons certainly aren’t on her side. They hijack the proceedings with a plan to crash the world economy while enriching themselves through cryptocurrency. Digital cash is a weirdly overarching theme in the screenplay that lists four writers. President Sutton is G20’ing to promote a plan helping African farmers via access to the technology. I half expected “Brought to you by bitcoin” to crawl across the bottom of the screen.
Unlucky for Rutledge, the Commander-in-Chief’s military background allows to her go all John McClane throughout the Cape Town hotel. Manny, the British Prime Minister (Douglas Hodge), South Korean First Lady (MeeWha Alana Lee, providing a couple moments of sorely needed humor), and IMF chair (Sabrina Impacciatore) become her new kitchen cabinet as they fight off the villains in kitchens and ballrooms. The First Family is separated from the matriarch with the crypto bandits on their trail.
You can’t blame Viola Davis for wanting her own 90s style shoot-em-up and she does bring a dignified presence to this junk food. Mr. Starr is also an appropriately unhinged antagonist. The problem is the execution. The fight sequences aren’t memorable and this doesn’t even bother to make use of its gorgeous South African setting (perhaps budget constraints were the culprit). This could’ve been set in a Wichita Ramada Inn when you really think about it.
The tired screenplay keeps returning to what made Sutton the leader of the free world with the photo. The picture’s backstory made me curious if a worthwhile movie could’ve been made about that. It might’ve been more worthwhile than the images we’re left with in G20.
The Piano Lesson is the third adaptation of an August Wilson play in the past decade seeking Oscar glory. This is a Washington family affair with siblings Malcolm directing and John David headlining. Their father Denzel is a producer. Piano has played at Telluride (with Toronto next) before its limited November 8th theatrical release and November 22nd Netflix premiere. Cast members include Samuel L. Jackson, Ray Fisher, Michael Potts, Erykah Badu, Corey Hawkins, and Danielle Deadwyler.
Early reviews are decent with some gripes about its stagey nature. Before we get to its awards chances, let’s take a look at how fellow Wilson adaptations Fences in 2016 and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in 2020 performed. Fences, directed by Denzel, landed four nominations: Picture, Denzel in Actor, Viola Davis in Supporting Actress for which she won, and Adapted Screenplay. Ma Rainey managed five mentions for Actor (Chadwick Boseman), Actress (Viola Davis), Costume Design (where it took gold), Makeup & Hairstyling (another victory), and Production Design.
With that track record, Piano has rightfully been viewed as a serious contender in numerous races. This weekend’s buzz solidifies some of that chatter while muddying other possibilities. Danielle Deadwyler appears to be the cast’s standout. It is not yet known if Netflix will campaign for her in lead or supporting though the latter seems more likely. If they do, a nod seems close to assured and that would come two years after she was snubbed in Actress for Till.
For weeks, I’ve had Samuel L. Jackson listed in 1st place in Supporting Actor. Despite a career with a lengthy list of highlights, his sole nom came 30 years ago for Pulp Fiction. Now I’m not even sure he makes the cut as his costar Ray Fisher is getting equally strong ink. Jackson could make the final quintet. However, I suspect I’ll at least drop him from the top slot. John David Washington faces longer odds in lead Actor, but let’s see how crowded that competition becomes.
Best Picture is a question mark. I think it could make it in though it would be at the bottom of the 10 hopefuls and may miss altogether. Down the line techs like Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Production Design (the ones Rainey received) could happen with Adapted Screenplay in the mix. One must wonder if Netflix decides to push Emilia Pérez as their #1 option and the answer is probably yes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
While animated titles dealing with spiders or herons are the likeliest Best Animated Feature Oscar winner this Sunday, Kung Fu Panda 4 hopes to take the box office this weekend. DreamWorks Animation’s martial arts comedy comes from director Mike Mitchell with Jack Black reprising his role as Po. Dustin Hoffman, Awkwafina, Viola Davis, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, Ian McShane, Ke Huy Quan, Lori Tan Chinn, and Ronny Chieng also provide voiceover work.
The first pair of Panda pics in 2008 and 2011 both received Animated Feature nods from the Academy, losing respectively to Wall-E and Rango. The third edition in 2016 did not manage to make the quintet despite matching the original’s 87% RT score (the second one hit 81%). No. 4 currently sits at 78%. If competition is weak, perhaps this series could return to contention. I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
DreamWorks Animation hopes to reverse diminishing returns for its comedic martial arts franchise when Kung Fu Panda 4 arrives in theaters March 8th. Mike Mitchell, maker of such genre fare including Shrek Forever After and Trolls, directs. Jack Black is back voicing the title character alongside returnees Dustin Hoffman, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, and Ian McShane. Newcomers include Awkwafina, Ke Huy Quan, Ronny Chieng, Lori Tan Chinn, and Viola Davis.
In the summer of 2008, the first Panda sighting kicked off with $60 million and an eventual $215 million domestic haul. Three summers later, the second edition also made $60 million. However, that was with an extra day of grosses due to the Memorial Day holiday. Its lesser total was $165 million. By January 2016, Kung Fu Panda 3 premiered at $41 million and then $143 million overall.
The eight year layoff is easily the longest between entries. Absence could make the heart grow fonder or at least enough to match its predecessor’s beginning. Yet I suspect mid to high 30s is more likely.
Kung Fu Panda 4 opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million
Last year, a late breaking Oscar campaign for Andrea Riseborough’s performance in the micro-budgeted drama To Leslie resulted in success. With various celebrities holding events touting her work, Riseborough nabbed one of the five slots in Actress (over favored competitors like Danielle Deadwyler in Till and Viola Davis in The Woman King). This resulted in both controversy and kudos for a unique way to campaign for gold hardware.
Now for the 96th Academy Awards, we have another midnight hour title raising eyebrows in the form of Selma director Ana DuVernay’s Origin. Based on Isabel Wilkerson’s nonfiction novel, the race relations drama premiered on the festival circuit early in the fall at Venice and Toronto. Some reviews were raves, but not all. An 80% Rotten Tomatoes score resulted and Neon picked up distribution rights. Its wide release comes this Friday.
That timing could come in handy. However, Origin hasn’t been seen as a true threat for Picture, Adapted Screenplay, or Actress. Yet there’s been some noteworthy activity over the past week. Angelina Jolie hosted an FYC event with DuVernay and the film’s lead Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (nominated for Supporting Actress in 2021 for King Richard). Today the USC Scripter nods for Adapted Screenplay had this in their top 5 along with expected heavy hitters American Fiction, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things.
Could Origin nab a screenplay mention from the Academy? That’s still a tough road. The other four titles should make the cut and Barbie is also an adapted work according to Oscar (despite that being heavily debatable). It wasn’t eligible for the USC prize due to their rules.
Where this could “come out of nowhere” as Riseborough did is in Actress. I would say Lily Gladstone in Flower Moon and Emma Stone in Poor Things are locked in. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) and Carey Mulligan (Maestro) aren’t shoo-ins, but their inclusion is expected. Then we have one slot up for grabs and hopefuls include Greta Lee (Past Lives), Margot Robbie (Barbie), and Annette Bening (Nyad). We shall see if this fresh round of campaigning puts Ellis-Taylor in the mix. I have my doubts. Then again I didn’t predict Riseborough a year ago and was proven wrong.
I do think Best Picture is a reach. At best, this might be 12th or 13th as far as possibilities. Or perhaps the power of Jolie isn’t to be underestimated. My final Oscar predictions are arriving on the blog imminently…
After their long strike that dominated entertainment news headlines in 2023, the 30th Screen Actors Guild Awards stream via Netflix (slightly ironic) on February 24th. Nominations in the six cinematic races are revealed this Wednesday, January 10th.
Readers of the blog are aware that I spend thousands of words and dozens of posts speculating on the Oscars. For the SAG Awards, it’s just this write-up. I’ll go through the sextet with brief commentary, my quintet of selections, and an alternate pick.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Alternate:
American Fiction
In recent years, there are sometimes 3 of 5 SAG Ensemble nominees that make the dance at the Oscars. More often it is 4 out of 5 and that’s where I see Barbie, Killers, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things (all highly likely BP contenders) making the cut. I’m leaning toward Saltburn over Air, The Color Purple (which has been fading and could use a boost with this), The Holdovers, and my alternate American Fiction in the five spot.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Predicted Nominees:
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternate:
Greta Lee, Past Lives
The SAG voters often go with more recognizable faces than the Academy does. That’s why you see Bening and Robbie over Greta Lee or Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall).
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Alternate:
Colman Domingo, Rustin
I wanted to go with Domingo or even Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers) or Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), but I ultimately couldn’t take out any of the five thespians that I currently have as the Academy’s nominees. If anyone is vulnerable, it’s probably Wright or DiCaprio.
Outstanding Performance in a Supporting Role by a Female Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Alternate:
Julianne Moore, May December
This race could be quite interesting. In addition to the six performers above, I was tempted to select Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret), Viola Davis (Air), or Penelope Cruz (Ferrari). Ultimately my somewhat surprise pick is Pike, even though she also nabbed a Globe mention. I also have a weird suspicion that Brooks might be snubbed, but I’m keeping her in.
Outstanding Performance in a Supporting Role by a Male Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Alternate:
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
I’m selecting Dafoe over De Niro in a close call and don’t discount Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction). Anyone beyond those seven actors would be an unexpected party crasher.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Predicted Nominees:
The Creator
Ferrari
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
John Wick: Chapter 4
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Alternate:
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Feels weird not to have a comic book movie predicted, but it was a pretty weak for that genre. Somehow Mr. Wick’s headshots have never been recognized in this race and perhaps that changes here.
That means I’m projecting the following numbers in nominations for these pictures:
4 Nominations
Oppenheimer, Poor Things
3 Nominations
Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon
2 Nominations
The Holdovers, Maestro, Nyad, Saltburn
1 Nomination
American Fiction, The Color Purple, The Creator, Ferrari, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, May December, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
My first Oscar predictions for the month of December comes on the eve of Golden Globe nominations and days after NBR and AFI revealed their best of for 2023.
There is a change in BP as American Fiction is back in with Anatomy of a Fall out. In Best Actress, Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) reaches the #1 spot. She overtakes Emma Stone in Poor Things who has held the position for several weeks. Gladstone’s rise happens as her costars Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro slip a little in their categories. Also in Best Actress, Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to the quintet at the expense of Fantasia Barrino in The Color Purple. In Actor, Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) is in over Colman Domingo (Rustin).
Another development worthy of discussion is Visual Effects. Earlier this week, the top 20 hopefuls were announced and Oppenheimer was nowhere to be found. I’d previously had it ranked #1 in the race, but it drops from contention.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Maestro (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)
9. American Fiction (PR: 11) (+2)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (-1)
12. May December (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. Air (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All of Us Strangers
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-3)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Viola Davis, Air
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4 (E)
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Colman Domingo, The Color Purple
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rustin
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-1)
7. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 10) (+3)
8. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tótem (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feautre
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elemental (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-5)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)
5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (-3)
7. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Joan Still” from Theater Camp
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wonka (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ferrari (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Godzilla Minus One (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Oppenheimer
Society of the Snow
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
3 Nominations
American Fiction, Past Lives
2 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret,Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Nimona, Nyad, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish
As November comes to a close, my updated Oscar predictions reflect one change in Best Picture as Anatomy of a Fall is back in with American Fiction out. Truth be told, I keep going back and forth on which film misses between Fall, Fiction, and The Zone of Interest at press time.
We also have a revolving door in the five spot in Supporting Actress and, for the first time, I’m going with a surprise pick in Rachel McAdams for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
The rest of the major races stay intact though I now have Oppenheimer leading in noms overall over Poor Things (which I had ahead in mid November). In fact, Poor Things now ranks third in the tally behind Killers of the Flower Moon.
You can read all the movement below as we approach December with all kinds of precursor indications coming our way!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Air (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)
15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Fair Play
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tótem (PR: Not Ranked)
10. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Monk and the Gun
The Peasants
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Every Body (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Deepest Breath
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Priscilla (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Chevalier (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Air (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nyad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-5)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Carmen
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 7) (+3)
5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Ferrari (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Killer (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (E)
8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
11 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Maestro
6 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Rustin
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, American Fiction, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Four Daughters, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish
It has been a lengthy three weeks since my last Oscar predictions and there’s developments to discuss. One of the final major awards puzzle pieces held its first screenings this week in The Color Purple. The musical based on the play that is based on the movie that is based on the novel has drawn encouraging reactions thus far. In fact, they’re positive enough that I’m glad I’ve never dropped it from my ten BP nominees. And I suspect I’ve made the right call in keeping Danielle Brooks placed at #1 in Supporting Actress for quite some time. Same goes for Taraji P. Henson getting recognized in that category. I also think Fantasia Barrino’s lead performance is a decent (if not slam dunk pick) for the crowded Best Actress race and that Colman Domingo could materialize in Supporting Actor. He may miss the cut and get the sole nod in Actor for Rustin (though the double nominee threat is real). Barrino joins my projected quintet in Actress with Greta Lee (Past Lives) falling by the wayside.
A24 has also screened true life wrestling drama The Iron Claw before its December 22nd bow. Word-of-mouth is also strong for this one. Yet I wonder if A24 will go all in on their campaign. If so, a BP nod is not totally out of the question. It’s listed in my top 15, but at the moment I believe it’s on the outside looking in and I have it listed nowhere else as a possibility.
Napoleon falls out of BP contention due to mixed reaction as does Joaquin Phoenix in Best Actor. Ridley Scott’s epic could still show up in some tech races. Another Thanksgiving release lessened its chances this week in Disney’s Wish. The animated musical also is garnering so-so buzz. The fact that it’s a Mouse House production could mean it makes the Animated Feature cut. For now, it moves out of the high five.
While it has been a little while since my previous update, Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor have the same nominees (albeit with some movement in the rankings). In Actor, Colman Domingo as Rustin is back in over Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). Sandra Hüller becomes my rare double contender prediction as I now have her in Supporting Actress (taking out Viola Davis in Air).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)
10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (E)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Saltburn (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (E)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Taste of Things (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Priscilla
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Peasants (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Carmen (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Asteroid City
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (+2)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-4) – **previously listed at #1 as TBD song
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (+3)
7. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (-4)
8. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Steal the Show” from Elemental
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Maestro (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Creator
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 6) (E)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)
That adds up to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
9 Nominations
Barbie, The Color Purple
6 Nominations
Maestro
5 Nominations
The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Past Lives
2 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Priscilla, Rustin
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Four Daughters, The Killer, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Teachers’ Lounge
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