After a decade away from behind the camera, Hacksaw Ridge marks Mel Gibson’s directorial return. The World War II true-life tale casts Andrew Garfield as a conscientious objector who nevertheless ended up being awarded the Medal of Honor for his heroic exploits on the battlefield. Costars include Vince Vaughn, Sam Worthington, Luke Bracey, Hugo Weaving, Teresa Palmer, and Rachel Griffiths.
The reported $45 million production debuted at Venice Film Festival in September to very positive word of mouth. Its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 94% and it seems to be gaining some traction as a potential awards contender. Ridge is the first war drama of November, but will be followed up quickly just a week later with Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk.
Gibson, of course, is an Oscar winner for his direction of 1995’s Braveheart and struck box office gold in 2004 with his follow-up, The Passion of the Christ. 2006’s Apocalypto was his last job as director and it grossed $50M domestic. The last decade has been an interesting one for Mr. Gibson – notable more for tabloid fodder than anything on the silver screen. His acting jobs have ranged from supporting roles in Machete Kills and The Expendables 3 to direct to On Demand action flicks like Get the Gringo and Blood Father.
It’s a legitimate question whether or not his name adds anything here. None of its stars carry much box office potency either (though Garfield will also soon headline this fall’s eagerly awaited Martin Scorsese drama Silence). What might help is the encouraging critical buzz swirling around it. I don’t expect an opening above $15 million, yet this could be a slow burner that experiences small declines in subsequent weekends. I’ll predict the most likely scenario is a low double digits opening and potential for growth as the season wears on.
Hacksaw Ridge opening weekend prediction: $12.1 million
It’s been a decade since Mel Gibson has been behind the camera with Apocalypto and these last 10 years have been bumpy ones for the Braveheart Oscar winner. He’s been the subject of controversies and tabloid fodder. His screen appearances have been primarily limited to B movie action flicks of varying quality.
Yet the Venice Film Festival has vaulted him back into the Oscar race with HacksawRidge, his World War II drama which has screened to positive buzz and some sterling reviews. It stars Andrew Garfield, Vince Vaughn, Sam Worthington, Hugo Weaving, Teresa Palmer, and Rachel Griffiths. The Lionsgate release hits screens stateside in November.
Some of the reaction for Hacksaw has used the C word in describing it for Gibson. As in Comeback. Whether or not Academy voters are willing to overlook his personal life and past transgressions and nominate it for Picture or Director is very much an open question. Even with its solid notices, I have Hacksaw currently on the outside looking in. If the film hits with audiences in two months, that dynamic could change.
On this Throwback Thursday and on the evening of the debut of the franchise reboot Jurassic World, it would be obvious to pontificate about the original Jurassic Park. It opened 22 years ago today and is widely and deservedly considered a modern day classic. I, however, chose to go in a different direction and talk about The Lost World: Jurassic Park, which stood as one of the most breathlessly awaited sequels ever in the summer of 1997. While the dino sequel certainly has its share of moments, impressive visuals and well constructed action sequences – the thrill, as the late B.B. King put it, is gone – mostly.
The Lost World picks up four years after the events of the original and stars Sam Neill and Laura Dern are nowhere to be found (they would come out of extinction for the third installment). Instead Dr. Ian Malcolm (Jeff Goldblum), the wise cracking comic relief from part one is the headliner. He’s still understandably shaken up from the events that transpired on Isla Nublar and things don’t improve when John Hammond (Richard Attenborough) informs him that there was always a second island where the replicated dinosaurs are developed. To add insult to injury, Ian’s girlfriend Sarah (Julianne Moore), a paleontologist, is already on the island documenting them. It’s all part of Hammond’s way of protecting his money grubbing family from turning the island into a theme park, which he knows darn well didn’t work out so hot four years ago.
This all leads to Malcolm going after Sarah, along with his young daughter and an eco activist videographer (Vince Vaughn, fresh off Swingers). As you might expect, it’s not a simple mission and the new island finds plenty of angry dinosaurs while Malcolm and company also must contend with a separate team led by Hammond’s greedy nephew and a hunter (Pete Postlethwaite) whose mission is to bag a T. rex.
With Steven Spielberg returning behind the camera, it’s no surprise that there are cleverly directed action sequences. The most thrilling involves a trailer and slowly breaking glass. Problem is, while the first Jurassic was so influential, World often feels like leftovers. For moviegoers too young to remember the release of Park in 1993, there’s really no way to properly explain just how awe struck it left audiences. We had never seen visuals like it and hearing that T. Rex growling loudly in our eardrums was exhilarating. When that film’s characters gasped at the creatures the first time they saw them, so did we. The Lost World has its fun moments, but the fresh factor is eliminated. Taking Ian Malcolm from an effective supporting player to hero doesn’t always work and his wise cracks might be more plentiful but they’re twice as corny. The other human characters contribute little. Don’t get me wrong – the dinosaurs look friggin sweet and there’s more of them but a better viewing experience it does not make.
By the time we arrive at the climax set in San Diego, the sight of T. Rex terrorizing the city seems like little more than Spielberg’s chance to make a short Godzilla tribute. We see a relic of the past terrorize the city, including a Blockbuster Video, another relic from the past. As Jurassic World is about to premiere, it will be the 1993 version we have in our hearts and minds for comparisons sake. The quality of this sequel is justified as a mixed bag, which explains it having been mostly lost in the world of conversation this week.
Three years ago, we saw a sleeper hit with The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, the British comedy/drama which earned an unanticipated $46 million domestically. That was enough to warrant a sequel which opens wide Friday. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel features returning cast members Judi Dench, Bill Nighy, Maggie Smith, and Dev Patel (who’s pulling double duty this weekend with Chappie). Richard Gere and David Strathairn also join the mix.
Reviews have been mostly positive so far as it stands at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes, just under the 78% earned by its predecessor. John Madden (the director not the sports dude) is back behind the camera. It would seem likely that this second helping may not quite match the numbers of the 2012 original stateside, but I still envision a fairly decent opening. I have this debuting a little higher than Unfinished Business, the Vince Vaughn comedy that opens against it. That’s bad news for Business, considering it premieres on roughly twice as many screens.
The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million
Three comedy performers known for appearing in successful raunchy R rated comedies headline Unfinished Business, out Friday. They are Vince Vaughn, Dave Franco, and of course, Tom Wilkinson (??). The picture follows the trio on a European business trip gone wrong. Sienna Miller costars.
While Vaughn and Franco have been involved in genre hits like Wedding Crashers and Neighbors, it’s very hard to imagine this entry joining that company or doing anywhere near their box office numbers. Commercials for Business have done little to inspire confidence. Vaughn, meanwhile, has been on a bit of a losing streak lately. His reunion with Wedding Crashers costar Owen Wilson, The Internship, petered out at only $44 million domestically. His last pic Delivery Man only earned $7.9 million out of the gate.
I simply don’t see Unfinished Business doing anything other than lackluster business in its debut and believe it too will fail to reach double digits for its premiere.
Unfinished Business opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million
Ken Scott’s Delivery Man allows its star Vince Vaughn to take on a more dramatic role that downplays his witty and sardonic sense of humor and pours on the pathos. The results aren’t too impressive and the screenplay gives Vaughn some scattershot and often mediocre material to work with.
A remake of Scott’s own 2011 Canadian feature Starbuck, David (Vaughn) is an aimless meat truck driver with financial woes who finds out he’s expecting his first child with his girlfriend, played by an underutilized Cobie Smulders. Well… about that “first” child…
It turns out our title character donated to a sperm clinic on a very regular basis in the early 90s under the alias Starbuck. And his efforts produced an astonishing 533 children, many of whom file a lawsuit to find out who their daddy is. David is torn with this revelation and it leads him to seek out his spawn while attempting to maintain his true identity from them. He develops relationships with them and their characters often check off the movie cliché boxes. The drug addicted girl trying to go straight. The struggling actor. The musician. Then there’s Viggo the vegetarian (Adam Chanler-Berat), who learns who David truly is and hangs around for a few scenes to annoy his dad, as well as the audience. And there’s also the handicapped son, creating a subplot that feels a tad too manipulative for comfort.
A puffy, pre-Star-Lord Chris Pratt is afforded some good moments as David’s in over his head attorney friend who represents him in a counter suit to secure his anonymity. In many ways, Man rises and falls with Vaughn. There are scarce comedic moments and Vaughn greatly downplays the quick paced and irony drenched persona we’ve come to anticipate from him. At times, he seems to be trying a little too hard to play against type and his performance comes off a bit listless.
Delivery Man doesn’t succeed enough in exploring David’s newfound connection to these strangers who he happens to father and the script tries too hard to pull our heartstrings. As the hundreds of Starbuck kids want to establish their connection with him, my connection to the proceedings as a viewer was much like Vaughn’s performance – too muted.
As we’re moving deep into the 2014 Summer Movie Season – on this here blog I’ve been reflecting on what has come in the summers before us. Days ago, I wrote a post reflecting on the hits, notable pictures, and flops from 20 years ago in 1994. Today – we focus on the season from a decade ago with 2004’s summer entries.
We’ll start with the Top Ten, but what is notable is some of the comedies that weren’t on that list that spawned endless catchphrases and became massive cult classics:
Onto the Top Ten:
10. Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story
Domestic Gross: $114 million
Vince Vaughn and Ben Stiller teamed up for this well-received sports comedy which received 70% positive support on Rotten Tomatoes. While this was a solid hit, Vaughn’s biggest comedy would come one summer later with a certain pic costarring Owen Wilson.
9. Fahrenheit 9/11
Domestic Gross: $119 million
It’s not often you see a documentary in the top ten summer hits, but in the summer of 2004 the country was focused on an upcoming Presidential election between Bush and Kerry. Michael Moore’s examination of the Iraq War struck a chord with viewers and became the highest grossing documentary of all time.
8. Van Helsing
Domestic Gross: $120 million
Don’t let its #8 ranking fool you because Van Helsing starring Hugh Jackman was considered a major flop upon release. With a reported $160 million budget, it couldn’t recoup that stateside and a potential franchise for Jackman stalled immediately. Good thing he’s got another character he can go back to time and time again.
7. Troy
Domestic Gross: $133 million
Wolfgang Peterson’s Trojan War saga starring Brad Pitt, Orlando Bloom, and Eric Bana under performed a bit domestically (with its reported $175 million budget) but made it up overseas.
6. I, Robot
Domestic Gross: $144 million
While not reaching the heights of his previous summer hits Independence Day or Men in Black – Will Smith’s I, Robot did respectable business. Based on a short story by Isaac Asimov, it received mixed reviews from critics and a planned sequel never materialized.
5. The Bourne Supremacy
Domestic Gross: $176 million
Goodwill left over from the 2002 original The Bourne Identity propelled this Matt Damon sequel to gross over $50 million more than its predecessor. A third Bourne feature would follow three years later before Damon left the franchise and Jeremy Renner took over in 2012.
4. The Day After Tomorrow
Domestic Gross: $186 million
Roland Emmerich returned to doing what he does best (showing the world getting destroyed) and audiences rewarded him for it. Starring Dennis Quaid and Jake Gyllenhall, Tomorrow is the highest non-sequel on the list and it took in over half a billion worldwide.
3. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
Domestic Gross: $249 million
Alfonso Cuaron took over directing duties from Chris Columbus in this third franchise entry. While many (including myself) consider this the best of the series, it surprisingly has the lowest domestic gross of all eight Potter flicks.
2. Spider-Man 2
Domestic Gross: $373 million
Generally considered one of the best superhero movies of all time and the best of this particular franchise, Spider-Man 2 was a massive hit even though it couldn’t quite match the $403 million performance of the 2002 original.
1. Shrek 2
Domestic Gross: $441 million
DreamWorks Animation easily ruled the summer as the sequel featuring the vocal work of Mike Myers, Eddie Murphy, and Cameron Diaz took the top spot. Of the four Shrek entries, it is the biggest grosser and outshined its predecessor by nearly $180 million dollars.
Beyond the top ten, there are four particularly notable pictures which achieved major cult status:
14. Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
It made a decent $85 million upon release, but as we all know, the Will Ferrell comedy has gone onto to becoming one of the most quoted flicks in memory. A 2013 sequel followed.
15. The Notebook
Based on the Nicholas Sparks novel, The Notebook caused audiences to fall in love with Ryan Gosling and Rachel McAdams and brought in $81 million.
27. Napoleon Dynamite
With a tiny $400,000 budget – the quirky comedy Napoleon Dynamite with Jon Heder came out of nowhere and posted a $44 million domestic gross. Like Anchorman, it became an endlessly quoted picture.
38. Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle
It made a meager $18 million upon release, but this stoner comedy became an instant cult classic and spawned two sequels.
And now we move to the flops of the summer:
21. The Stepford Wives
Frank Oz’s remake of the 1975 film cost $90 million to make and earned just $59 million. Critics weren’t impressed and audiences ignored the sci-fi comedy starring Nicole Kidman, Matthew Broderick, and Christopher Walken.
25. King Arthur
Training Day director Antoine Fuqua teamed up with Clive Owen and Keira Knightley for this retelling of the medieval legend. With a $120 million budget, Arthur tanked stateside with only $51 million.
29. Catwoman
Warner Bros. surely regrets spending $100 million on this critically lambasted Catwoman feature which starred Halle Berry and Sharon Stone. It earned only $40 million. The silver lining for the studio: one summer later, a certain Chris Nolan would reinvigorate their superhero fortunes with Batman Begins.
And that’s what was going on ten years at the multiplexes, my friends!
The post Thanksgiving box office weekend is usually a fairly sluggish one and there’s only one new title joining the fray – the Christian Bale crime thriller Out of the Furnace. You can read my full prediction post on it here:
Unless it majorly underwhelms (which is somewhat possible), Furnace is pretty much assured the #3 spot for its debut. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Disney’s Frozen appear destined to duke it out for the #1 slot.
Catching Fire is entering its third weekend and post Thanksgiving blockbusters typically drop below 50% in December’s first weekend. For instance, 2011 and 2012’s Twilight entries dipped 60% in their third frames over the same weekend. Catching Fire may not drop quite that far, but it should be close.
On the other hand, Disney’s Frozen opened at #2 over Turkey Day weekend with the best opening for the holiday of all time. Its chances of not falling over 50% seem better and, if that happens, Frozen would catapault to first and Fire would fall to second.
Thor: The Dark World should be fourth in its fifth weekend while Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man and The Best Man Holiday should fight it out for the five spot. And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:
1. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $34.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)
2. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 57%)
3. Out of the Furnance
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
4. Thor: The Dark World
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 53%)
5. Delivery Man
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)
As always, I’ll have final results on the blog this Sunday!
The weekend before Thanksgiving brings us one of the year’s most anticipated titles, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which is primed for an explosive debut. The sequel will look to build upon the $152 million that its predecessor opened at in March 2012. My prediction puts it at #4 for all-time domestic openings. You can read my detailed post here:
I have #2 and #3 as other sequels. Thor: The Dark World is likely to lose over half its audience in the third weekend. The Best Man Holiday debuted well beyond expectations with $30 million. Conventional wisdom tells me it’s likely to lose over 50% in weekend #2, but considering its rare A+ Cinemascore grade, it may not fall that far. The two should post very close results fighting for the runner-up spot.
The weekend’s loser may well be Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man, which is garnering mixed reviews and has been running a tepid marketing campaign. I expect a disappointing opening and you can read my detailed post on it here:
Rounding out the top five should be either holdovers Last Vegas or Free Birds, but I’ll give the edge to Vegas in weekend #4. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $166.7 million
2. Thor: The Dark World
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)
3. The Best Man Holiday
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Delivery Man
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
5. Last Vegas
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 26%)
Check the blog’s Facebook page on Saturday for early results with final results on the blog Sunday!
He’s had one pretty big box office disappointment earlier this year with The Internship and that trend may well continue for Vince Vaughn with Delivery Man.
The film is actually a scene-for-scene remake of a 2011 Canadian feature titled Starbuck and Vaughn was brought in to give the American version some star power. Vaughn plays a sperm donor who finds out he has fathered 533 children. Chris Pratt and Cobie Smulders costar.
Delivery Man sounds a bit gimmicky and audiences may treat this with ambivalence. Reviews so far have been mixed. There’s also the matter of another picture opening Friday that is likely to divert the attention of audiences: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. The decision to open this against that might not have been a wise one.
If Delivery Man gets past $15 million, I’d be surprised. I think it’s more to reach the low end of double digits.
Delivery Man opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
For my prediction post on The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, click here:
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