Academy hopeful Conclave materializes in theaters on October 25th. Based on the Robert Harris novel, Ralph Fiennes headlines the thriller as a cardinal in charge of selecting the new Pope. Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, Sergio Castellitto, Isabella Rossellini, and Lucien Msamati costar. Edward Berger, following up his nine-time Oscar nominee All Quiet on the Western Front from 2022, directs.
With 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 78 on Metacritic, Conclave is expected to vie for multiple awards races including Best Picture. That buzz could assist in bringing in an adult audience. I wouldn’t be surprised if it starts out in the mid to possibly high single digits as it hopes for meager declines in later weekends. This forecast could change based on its final released screen count.
Conclave opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million
For my Venom: The Last Dance prediction, click here:
Kiyoshi Kurosawa (no relation to Akira) premiered his latest feature Cloud at the Venice Film Festival and he’s had good luck there before. His 2020 effort Wife of a Spy took the Silver Lion (equivalent to Best Director). This psychological thriller is garnering mostly decent reviews and Japan has selected it as their pick for International Feature Film.
The nation has seen a handful of their selections nominated for the prize in the 21st century. That includes two winners (2008’s Departures, 2021’s Drive My Car) in addition to 2003’s The Twilight Samurai, 2018’s Shoplifters, and Perfect Days from last year.
With 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 70 Metacritic score, I’m not confident the acclaim is strong enough for Japan to make the race this time. If Cloud manages to make the shortlist, however, it could sneak in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Vermiglio premiered in its native country at the Venice Film Festival before making it to North America at Toronto’s fest. Written and directed by Maura Delpero, the drama stars Guiseppe De Domenico, Tommaso Ragno, Martina Scrinzi, and Roberta Rovelli.
The period piece has been announced at Italy’s hopeful for International Feature Film as they hope it’s their fifth pic to make the final five in the 21st century. The only winner in that time frame is 2013’s The Great Beauty while 2005’s The Beast in the Heart, 2021’s The Hand of God, and 2023’s lo capitano also vied for the prize.
With two nods in the three years, Vermiglio‘s chances are decent but far from assured. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% with 77 on Metacritic. Right now it seems like there will be plenty of pics fighting for the fourth and fifth spots in IFF behind Emilia Pérez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, and I’m Still Here (though I should note this branch can be unpredictable). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Arriving five years to the day behind its billion plus grossing predecessor, Joker: Folie à Deux dances into multiplexes on October 4th. Todd Phillips is back in the director’s chair with Joaquin Phoenix reprising his Oscar-winning role as Arthur Fleck. Lady Gaga’s Harley Quinn joins the musical mayhem alongside Catherine Keener, Brendan Gleeson, Zazie Beetz, Harry Lawtey, and Steve Coogan.
A half decade ago, Joker decimated expectations and set records with a $96 million opening on its way to $335 million domestically. Worldwide it amassed a haul of just over one billion bucks and garnered 11 Academy Awards nominations including Phoenix’s victory.
Like the original, Deux was first seen at the Venice Film Festival where reaction was decidedly mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 63% with 54 on Metacritic. Tracking suggests the sequel might not be the phenomenon of what we witnessed in 2019.
This is not expected to top the starting number of Joker. The question is how far it falls under. I suspect the so-so buzz could mean mid 50s and that’s a far cry from its predecessor.
Joker: Folie à Deux opening weekend prediction: $54.3 million
Adapting the 1967 novel by Emmanuelle Arsan and arriving 50 years after the first cinematic rendering of the adult romance source material, Emmanuelle is the opening selection of the San Sebastián International Film Festival. It is Audrey Diwan’s follow-up to 2021’s Happening which won the Golden Lion at the 2021 Venice Film Festival. Noémie Merlant, Naomi Watts, Will Sharpe, and Jamie Campbell Bower lead the cast.
Following the fest premiere, Emmanuelle hits French screens later this week. The reviews trickling out of Spain are lukewarm. There was some intrigue about which movie France would pick as its hopeful for International Feature Film. The speculation centered on Emilia Pérez and The Count of Monte Cristo with Emmanuelle seen as a dark horse. Pérez ended up as their choice. Based on the early buzz for this, it’s easy to see why this was not a viable option. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have all concluded and the Oscar landscape is looking a bit clearer for the 97th edition of the ceremony. Per usual with the festivals, there are films that rise and those that fall. No film rose more than Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice, but Toronto gave us a shocker in the form of Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck. The sci-fi flick based on a Stephen King novella took People’s Choice at the Canadian event. 15 of the last 16 victors of that prize have received a Best Picture nomination including the past 12 in a row. We still don’t know which distributor will buy Chuck and it’s not confirmed to be out this year. For that matter, we also don’t know for a fact that A24’s The Brutalist will make the ’24 calendar. For now I’m assuming both will. That means I’m elevating Chuck from unranked to #11 in my BP possibilities on the outside just looking in.
There was a significant announcement that Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore will be both be campaigned in lead actress for The Room Next Door. That means Swinton enters my quintet in that category with Amy Adams (Nightbitch) dropping. With Swinton leaving supporting, Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) resurfaces there. It has also been confirmed that Saoirse Ronan will vie for Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress in Blitz. I continue to list her a double nominee.
We have a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) in with Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) falling out of the projected five.
For the last few months, I’ve included 25 BP contenders and 15 for Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions. As I typically do around this time of year, I will condense this to 15 BPs and 10 in the others. Got all that? Good!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-1)
10. TheRoom Next Door (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
12. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)
13. September 5 (PR: 16) (+3)
14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)
15. A Real Pain (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Queer
Nosferatu
The Apprentice
All We Imagine as Light
Joker: Folie à Deux
The Piano Lesson
Wicked
Juror No. 2
His Three Daughters
A Different Man
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)
8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Jason Reitman, Saturday Night
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Luca Guadagnino, Queer
Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door
Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters
June Squibb, Thelma
Zendaya, Challengers
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness
Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to lead actress
Lesley Manville, Queer
Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Drew Starkey, Queer
Harris Dickinson, Blitz
Mark Eidelstein, Anora
Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson
John Lithgow, Conclave
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (+1)
5. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Hard Truths (PR: 10) (+1)
10. September 5 (PR: 13) (+3)
Dropped Out:
His Three Daughters
Dídi
Kinds of Kindness
A Different Man
Juror No. 2
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
I’m Still Here
Gladiator II
Nightbitch
Inside Out 2
Nosferatu
The Wild Robot
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)
8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pedro Páramo (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Simon of the Mountain
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Daughters (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Union (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Anora (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+3)
4. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Conclave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Substance (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Queer
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
“Why Am I Here” from Shirley
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maria (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Here (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
8 Nominations
Blitz
6 Nominations
Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Conclave, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Maria, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Joker: Folie à Deux, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Life of Chuck, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, Will & Harper
To say there’s been plenty of news since my last predictions post on 09/03 is quite an understatement. It’s been confirmed that Clint Eastwood’s thriller Juror No. 2 will release in this calendar year. You’ll see that reflected below though I don’t have the movie or Toni Collette (in Supporting Actress) or the screenplay actually projected for nominations.
Then there is, of course, more screenings from the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. While Nightbitch is probably out of Best Picture contention, TIFF screenings suggest Amy Adams could still be a threat to make the Actress quintet. She’s back in my five. I had to make room anyway since Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) appears to be a supporting play and not lead. I hesitated to put Adams back in as Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) are serious threats. For that, so are Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and Demi Moore (The Substance). It’s getting crowded in Actress.
Speaking of Joker, the mixed reaction from Cannes causes it to drop from 11th to 20th in my BP rankings.
There are gains for The Brutalist as it rises from 3rd to 1st in the BP derby. The announcement that A24 picked up it up for distribution might mean it’s now their #1 campaign. If so, that could have a detrimental effect on Sing Sing. That helps explain Adrien Brody getting to first in Best Actor over Colman Domingo. Clarence Maclin from Sing Sing stays at #1 in Supporting Actor over The Brutalist‘s Guy Pearce though I considered making that switch. And now Brady Corbet now sitting atop the charts in Director. Blitz had previously held the #1 positions in BP and Director but they slip to #2.
In Supporting Actress, two changes as Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) are in and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) are on the outside looking in.
And for the one change in BP, Venice’s Golden Lion winner The Room Next Door is in the 10 with A Complete Unknown falling out.
Please note that this update is the first time where Dune: Part Two is not the nomination leader. It’s now tied with 9 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez while The Brutalist sits with 10.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)
12. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (-1)
14. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Queer (PR: 14) (-1)
16. September 5 (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Nosferatu (PR: 17) (E)
18. The Apprentice (PR: 22) (+4)
19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 19) (E)
20. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-9)
21. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (-3)
22. Wicked (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
24. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
25. A Different Man (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nightbitch
Maria
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
12. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-1)
13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 13) (E)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux – moved to supporting
Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)
14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
André Holland, The Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kathy Burke, Blitz
Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 15) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Stephen Graham, Blitz
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 9) (+2)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 14) (+2)
13. September 5 (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A Different Man (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-1)
10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
The Fire Inside
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (E)
5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Count of Monte Cristo
Cloud
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Savages (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. No Other Land (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Union (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Anora (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Queer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Blitz
Nickel Boys
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Why Am I Here?” from Shirley (PR: 8) (-1)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux
“Compress/Repress” from Challengers
“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Conclave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+2)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Civil War
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Alien: Romulus
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Conclave, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
The Room Next Door, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys, Queer, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 was a critical and commercial disappointment when it opened in late June following its Cannes premiere in May. Kevin Costner’s epic western underwhelmed enough so that part 2’s release plan is undetermined (though it’s still expected to be out by year’s end). The second chapter of a planned four (part 3’s principal photography is underway) has also debuted in Europe via the Venice fest. The director/cowriter headlines a cast that includes Sienna Miller, Sam Worthington, Giovanni Ribisi, Danny Huston, Jena Malone, Ella Hunt, Will Patton, Luke Wilson, Isabelle Fuhrman, Thomas Haden Church, Glynn Turman, and Kathleen Quinlan.
Initial word-of-mouth is that while Chapter 2 is a slight improvement, don’t get your hopes too high. In other words, awards voters are not likely to get their sights on either 2024 Horizon. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The 2024 Venice Film Festival has wrapped production with a bit of a surprise ending. Pedro Almodóvar’s English language debut The Room Next Door has taken the Golden Lion (equivalent to Best Picture) in Italy. The relationship drama starring Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton has received positive reviews (95% RT), but the general consensus is they might not have been strong enough for this particular prize.
What does that mean for its Oscar chances? Well, it certainly helps exposure prior to its December 20th limited stateside start and nationwide expansion in January. Five of the past seven Golden Lion recipients have ended up nabbing BP nods – The Shape of Water (winner), Roma, Joker, Nomadland (winner), and Poor Things.
Venice spreads the wealth when it comes to the victors. The Silver Lion designation (equivalent to Best Director) was bestowed to Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. The Holocaust survivor epic was the breakout of the fest with its awards possibilities going through the roof. It could become a major player at the 97th Academy Awards and Corbet’s inclusion here proves it. On the other hand, this was probably the betting odds favorite for the Lion and didn’t get there.
The Volpi Cups go to Actor and Actress. The former went to Vincent Lindon for The Quiet Son. It’s doubtful that he’ll be a factor in the Academy’s race. In the past decade, two Volpi Actor winners have garnered Oscar nods (Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate and Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin).
In Best Actress, the story could be different with Nicole Kidman being named for Babygirl. Seeking her sixth Academy nom, she was unable to accept the Venice award due to her mother’s passing. At the Oscars, Best Actress is starting to look crowded. Yet A24 is likely to mount a spirited campaign for the performer. Half of the previous the Actress honorees have made the Academy’s cut: winners Emma Stone (La La Land) and Olivia Colman (The Favourite) in addition to Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), and Cate Blanchett (Tár).
Keep checking the blog for rolling awards coverage!
There are some genuine awards related surprises as it pertains to the Venice Film Festival debut for Joker: Folie à Deux today. It is not shocking that the Todd Phillips sequel to his billion plus 2019 grosser is garnering wildly divergent reactions. So did the original. I’m talking about some unexpected housekeeping items. For one, Lady Gaga’s performance as Harley Quinn is said to be a clear Supporting Actress play and not lead. In my updated Oscar predictions post yesterday, I slotted her for the first time (at #5) in Actress. That will obviously change. Another tidbit is that despite Deux being a musical, there doesn’t appear to be any original songs for consideration. I’ve listed a TBD tune in my quintet of forecasted contenders for several weeks. That, too, will be corrected when I updated Academy projections shortly (probably Sunday).
Prior to its October 4th stateside premiere (exactly five years after part one), the follow-up has premiered in Italy just like the last one did. The first Joker started its Oscar run by taking the Golden Lion (equivalent to Best Picture) in Venice. It ended up receiving a ceremony high 11 nominations at the 92nd Academy Awards including Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and several tech races. Joaquin Phoenix received the gold statue in Best Actor eleven years after Heath Ledger won Supporting Actor as the same character in The Dark Knight. The Original Score by Hildur Guõnadóttit was also victorious.
Phoenix is back as the iconic comic book villain along with Gaga, a returning Zazie Beetz, Brendan Gleeson, and Catherine Keener supporting. Even more so than what took place a half decade ago, Folie appears to be drawing even more divisive word-of-mouth. The Metacritic score is 54 based on nearly 25 reviews thus far. Some are calling it brilliant while others are saying this is a huge misfire.
The Academy is unlikely to show the same affection that they did with Joker. BP, Director, and Actor seem improbable. I’ve yet to include Deux in my top 10 picks for BP and that doesn’t appear to be changing. Down the line races like Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Original Score (from Hildur again) could occur. Yet the Academy might just ignore this altogether or maybe throw it a bone in one or two of the aforementioned categories.
Back to Gaga. She was nominated in Actress for 2018’s A Star is Born and was expected to be up for 2021’s House of Gucci. She didn’t make the cut for Gucci. Supporting Actress could include heavy hitters like Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez from Emilia Pérez, Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), among others whose films have yet to be unveiled. Gaga is getting good ink as Quinn, but there may not be room for her to get in the door. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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