NuestraTierra (or Landmarks) marks the first documentary from acclaimed Argentine filmmaker Lucrecia Martel. It focuses on colonialism issues in her native country.
First screened at the Venice Film Festival in late August, Tierra moved to the London fest where it won Best Film last month. The doc continued its circuit run with the NYC fest and has racked up solid reviews along the way with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic.
While I haven’t featured it prominently in my 10 possibilities for Best Documentary Feature, the resume is there for Tierra to make a move. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Six years after her feature Honeyland was nominated for Best International Feature Film and Best Documentary Feature, Tamara Kotevska will try to achieve the same with follow-up The Tale of Silyan. The Macedonian production marks the filmmaker’s first solo effort as Ljubomir Stefanov was her partner on previous works.
Centered on a farmer nursing an injured stork back to life, Silyan played the Venice Film Festival and was picked up by National Geographic domestically. Reviews are impressive with 100% on RT and an 84 Metacritic. A limited (and Oscar qualifying) run arrives November 28th followed by a Disney+ release. Macedonia has already announced it as their selection for the international competition.
The combo of Nat Geo and the Mouse House campaigning could bode well for its prospects. I’ve yet to list this in either IFF or Doc Feature as a possibility, but that might change with my next update. I do feel it has a stronger shot in the latter as IFF is plenty crowded already. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Based on a 2016 graphic novel by Isabel Greenberg, the historical fantasy 100 Nights of Hero played the Venice Film Festival and closed London’s as it moves toward a December 5th domestic release. Julia Jackman directs and adapted the source material for the big screen with Emma Corrin, Nicholas Galitzine, Maika Monroe, Amir El-Masry, Charli XCX, Richard E. Grant, and Felicity Jones in the cast.
Many critics are appreciating what’s called a feminist fable to the tune of 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Metacritic stands at 70 which illustrates the more measured tone of some reviews. IFC is distributing and they don’t exactly have a track record when it comes to awards campaigning. So while a down-the-line race like Production Design might be a possibility in the care of another studio, I don’t think Hero will be on the minds of voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The latest concoction from the prolific Yorgos Lanthimos expands nationwide October 31st with Bugonia. Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons headline with Aidan Delbis, Stavros Halkias, and Alicia Silverstone providing support. It premiered at the Venice Film Festival in late August and has an 89% Rotten Tomatoes rating with 68 on Metacritic.
Poor Things became a major Academy contender (11 nominations) in 2023 while Kinds of Kindness underwhelmed with awards voters and viewers last year. I suspect Bugonia may perform closer to the latter as it could struggle everywhere between the coasts. While Poor amassed $34 million domestically at the box office, Kindness managed just $5 million.
Slated to hit around 1800 venues after a limited rollout the previous weekend, I have this between $2-4 million.
The busy Luca Guadagnino (who helmed two 2024 releases with Challengers and Queer) is back in multiplexes with After the Hunt. The thriller features Julia Roberts headlining alongside Ayo Edebiri, Andrew Garfield, Michael Stuhlbarg and Chloë Sevigny. An Amazon MGM production, it was unveiled in six venues last weekend with the wide release on October 17th.
Hunt debuted at the Venice Film Festival in late August. Considered by many (including me) to be a major awards player, the Italian screening essentially disabused that notion. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 44% with Metacritic at 51.
Despite its middling critical reaction, it performed impressively in limited fashion with a $26k+ per screen average. However, the coastal performance likely won’t correlate to everything in between. Slated to expand to approximately 1200 screens, lower to mid single digits sounds right.
After the Hunt wide opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million
As they always do, the trilogy of late summer/early fall festivals in Venice, Toronto and Telluride tremendously shaped the Oscar landscape a few weeks ago. The in-progress New York fest has a smaller imprint, but we did see the premiere of Ronan Day-Lewis’s Anemone before its semi-wide release this weekend. Starring his three-time Oscar winning father Daniel, the screenings keep him in the convo for Best Actor while its Picture, Director and Original Screenplay possibilities fell by the wayside. If its lead were to make the cut in the Actor quintet, he could bring costars Sean Bean and Samantha Morton with him in the supporting fields. However, I think that’s a long shot.
New York’s closer is Is This Thing On? from Bradley Cooper. His two other behind the camera works (A StarIs Born, Maestro) were both BP contenders. When I do my next update, we’ll know its viability in all races from BP to the acting contests for Will Arnett, Laura Dern and Cooper himself.
In other news, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another performed respectably though didn’t surpass expectations in its box office debut. I still believe ranking it 1st in BP, Director and Adapted Screenplay is the right play with its terrific reviews. Benicio del Toro pops up in the top 10 for Supporting Actor though it could be a stretch for both him and Sean Penn to get in. That said, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti are both viable in Supporting Actress. In fact, I’m elevating Infiniti for the first time in that race with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside.
In a best case scenario, Battle could see five of its performers up for gold (with Leonardo DiCaprio in lead Actor). Nine pictures have managed that feat in Oscar history: 1942’s Mrs. Miniver, All About Eve from 1950, 1953’s From Here to Eternity, 1954’s On the Waterfront, 1957’s Peyton Place, 1963’s Tom Jones, 1967’s Bonnie and Clyde, 1974’s The Godfather Part II, and Network from 1976, Worth noting is that it’s been almost half a century since it last happened.
Another newcomer this weekend is Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine and it is struggling mightily at the box office. With more reviews out that are far from raves, I’m more skeptical that Dwayne Johnson or Emily Blunt get nominated. The best bet for inclusion is Makeup and Hairstyling and I’m not even convinced it gets in there.
Bugonia has fallen out of my BP top ten with Avatar: Fire and Ash returning to the lineup. This could be temporary, but we’ll see how the reaction to Yorgos Lanthimos’s latest is when it debuts later this month.
There’s a change in Best Actor with George Clooney as Jay Kelly returning to the projected quintet and Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) dropping.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 11) (+2)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (E)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)
15. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rental Family
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sydney Sweeney, Christy
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)
7. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted Screenplay
8. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rental Family (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Is This Thing On? – moved to Original Screenplay
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sound of Falling (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
My Father’s Shadow
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (E)
9. In Your Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cover-Up (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Seeds (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
3. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Hamnet (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rental Family (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+3)
8. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Snow White (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hedda (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (+1)
8. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Hamnet
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
After the Hunt
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Golden” from KPop: Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)
3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
9. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. F1 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Warfare (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Warfare
And that all equates to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Sinners
12 Nominations
One Battle After Another
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Hamnet
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
No Other Choice
2 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, KPop Demon Hunters, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
As an NYC poet, Willem Dafoe’s character is subject to the unanticipated Late Fame of the title. Kent Jones directs the drama which has screened at the Venice and New York festivals. Greta Lee and Edmund Donovan costar.
Based on a posthumously released novella from Arthur Schnitzler and adapted by Samy Burch (who received an Adapted Screenplay nod for 2023’s May December), Fame is generating mostly complimentary early reviews. Rotten Tomatoes is at 85% with 76 on Metacritic.
If Fame were to contend for awards, it would be with Dafoe’s performance. The veteran would be vying for his fifth gold statue. His last try was for 2018’s At Eternity’s Gate in the lead derby. Dafoe’s previous three attempts were in supporting for 1986’s Platoon, 2000’s Shadow of the Vampire and 2017’s The Florida Project. He’s yet to win.
Unlike seven years ago, Best Actor is already looking too crowded for a fifth nod to be realistic. That’s unless precursors provide him with surprise mentions. We’re also not even sure that Fame will materialize as a 2025 calendar play so that doesn’t help. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Dwayne Johnson seeks rock solid returns when The Smashing Machine enters the box office ring on October 3rd. Marking the solo directorial debut of Benny Safdie (brother Josh has his own with Marty Supreme in December), Johnson stars as MMA fighter Mark Kerr with Emily Blunt as his wife. The supporting cast includes Ryan Bader, Bas Rutten and Oleksandr Usyk (all from the real life fight world).
Seen as Johnson’s first legit bid for awards consideration, Machine debuted at Venice to mostly positive reviews (75% RT, 69 Metacritic). Steering away from broad based action and comedy (often set in jungles), A24 hopes the former wrestler’s latest plays well throughout October.
The MMA factor could help this get past my projection, but I don’t think the buzz is strong enough for this to reach $20 million. Even mid to high teens could be a challenge.
The Smashing Machine opening weekend prediction: $13.7 million
For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:
We are now in the fall season of serious prognosticating as a huge portion of Oscar hopefuls have already screened courtesy of Venice, Telluride and Toronto. As discussed in my previous update on September 13th, the biggest story of the month didn’t come from those festivals. It came via Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens this Friday. Greeted with rapturous reviews, Another vaulted to 1st in my Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay rankings with Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn joining my projected acting quintets in the supporting fields. However, ten days ago, I’d yet to include Leonardo DiCaprio in the Best Actor five. Now I am and that’s at the expense of George Clooney (Jay Kelly). This is a major swing as Leo rises 5 spots while Clooney falls 4.
We also have a change in the BP ten with Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice entering and Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The director line-up remains the same though I came close to putting Chan-wook in.
In Supporting Actor, Delroy Lindo (Sinners) is out of the lineup with Jeremy Strong (Springsteen) back in. In Supporting Actress, Gwyneth Paltrow’s work in Marty Supreme reenters with Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) dipping.
As I did around the same time in 2024, I’m condensing my projections. Instead of 25 possibilities in BP, it shrinks to 15. In all other fields, I’m now listing 10. The next big happening that could impact my forecasts is the New York Film Festival. Starting Friday, NYFF will provide first looks at Anemone with Daniel Day-Lewis and Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On?
You can read all the movement beyond Mr. DiCaprio’s elevation below.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Secret Agent
The Testament of Ann Lee
The Rivals of Amziah King
Blue Moon
Is This Thing On?
Anemone
The Voice of Hind Rajib
After the Hunt
Weapons
Father Mother Sister Brother
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 11) (+5)
7. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Noam Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib
Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 11) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue
Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Miles Caton, Sinners
Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Sean Bean, Anemone
Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (E)
8. Blue Moon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
The Testament of Ann Lee
After the Hunt
Father Mother Sister Brother
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
Highest 2 Lowest
Nouvelle Vague
The Smashing Machine
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)
10. My Father’s Shadow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Scarlet (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Seeds (PR: 6) (E)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Below the Clouds
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8)(-1)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Snow White (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-3)
8. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
F1
Bugonia
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Wizard of the Kremlin
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
10. After the Hunt (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Hedda
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E) – listed as TBD
2. “Golden” from KPop: Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+1) – listed as TBD
5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-1)
7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blue Moon
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)
5. F1 (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Warfare (PR: 7) (-2)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lost Bus
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Hamnet, Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Bugonia, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominations
F1, KPop: Demon Hunters, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Zootopia 2
The fact that A Big Bold Beautiful Journey skipped the recent film festival circuit might have been a clue that the studio was worried about its critical prospects. From acclaimed director Kogonada (Columbus, After Yang), the fantasy romance stars Margot Robbie (in her first major project since Barbie) and Colin Farrell with Kevin Kline and Phoebe Waller-Bridge providing support.
That antenna about it avoiding Telluride or Venice or Toronto appears in tune. Many reviews are calling this a misfire with 56% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 41 Metacritic. Despite some appreciation for technical aspects, the Academy won’t be looking into nominations for this Journey. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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