Oscar Predictions – Diane Warren: Relentless

Diane Warren: Relentless is playing the festival circuit chronicling the prolific songwriter’s life. Directed by Bess Kargman, the documentary’s subject is no stranger to Oscar attention.

In 1987, Warren received her first Academy nod for Original Song with “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin (performed by Starship). Yesterday she nabbed her 16th (!) nomination with “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (performed by H.E.R.). In between there’s been well-known tunes like Celine Dion’s “Because You Loved Me” from Up Close & Personal and Aerosmith’s “I Don’t Wanna Miss a Thing” from Armageddon. In recent years, her tracks were nominated from pictures in 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. What do they all have in common? None of them took home the gold. The Academy did give Warren an honorary Oscar in 2022.

It would be quite a story if a doc about her life ended up earning Oscar glory. Apparently her well-known status as an Academy loser is covered. Don’t count on it happening. At 83% on Rotten Tomatoes, reviews are fine but not strong enough to be a contender. Yet there’s a caveat. “Dear Me” (sung by Kesha) is the main song in the pic and the full version was released today. You can hear snippets in the trailer. I wouldn’t be surprised based on history if it makes the cut in Original Song marking Warren’s 17th try. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Six Triple Eight

Focused on the sole predominantly black female battalion to serve overseas in WWII as postal clerks, Tyler Perry is behind the camera for The Six Triple Eight. Kerry Washington leads a cast that includes Ebony Obsidian, Milauna Jackson, Kylie Jefferson, Shanice Shantay, Susan Sarandon, Dean Norris, Sam Waterston, and Oprah Winfrey. The war drama is in limited release this weekend before a Netflix bow on December 20th.

This doesn’t sound like it will turn out to be Madea Goes to the Oscars. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 50% with Metacritic at 57. There is praise for some of the performances and highlighting an underreported true story. Yet reviews aren’t strong enough for this to be a contender… with one notable exception.

Diane Warren contributed “The Journey” to the soundtrack and it’s performed by H.E.R. As is the stuff of Oscar lore, Warren has 15 tunes that have been nominated for Best Original Song. These include “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin, “Because You Love Me” from Up Close & Personal, and “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” from Armageddon. Her 15th nod arrived last year courtesy of “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot. She’s 0 for 15 as far as victories. H.E.R., on the other hand, was victorious in Original Song at the 93rd ceremony courtesy of “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah. Don’t be surprised if “The Journey” makes the cut for Warren’s 16th recognition, but I don’t see it winning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Flamin’ Hot

I didn’t do an Oscar Predictions post on Flamin’ Hot when it premiered at South by Southwest back in March or when it began streaming over the summer on Hulu and Disney+. Eva Longoria’s directorial debut tells the true life tale of a man who claimed he invented the title seasoned Cheetos. Jesse Garcia, Annie Gonzalez, Dennis Haysbert, and Tony Shalhoub star.

Reviews were fairly decent at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes, but this didn’t strike me as an awards contender at the time or now. That’s with one exception and this brings us to Diane Warren. The songwriter has contributed many tracks to feature films and she has 14 Academy nominations to speak for it. This dates back nearly 40 years starting with “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin, continuing with gigantic hits like “Because You Loved Me” from Up Close and Personal and “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” from Armageddon, and including last year’s ceremony with “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman. Despite the impressive number of noms, Warren has yet to win Original Song (though she did pick up an Honorary Oscar for her work earlier this year).

Flamin’ Hot includes the track “The Fire Inside” performed by Becky G and written by the frequent hopeful. It hasn’t been on my radar screen in my previous predictions. Yet now that a planned documentary about Warren seems to be delayed to 2024 (in which I’m sure she’ll have a contending track), one has to consider this song for inclusion. Don’t be surprised if it materializes in my top ten possibilities in my next update. It’s risky to bet against the penner of the tune. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: 80 for Brady

The four leads in 80 for Brady – Lily Tomlin, Jane Fonda, Rita Moreno, and Sally Field – can tout a combined 12 Oscar nods for their performances and five victories. That hardware rivals the seven Super Bowls won by Tom Brady (who is also in the sports farce opening Friday).

That said – can an early February comedy contend for awards attention? The 63% Rotten Tomatoes score, while not bad, doesn’t inspire confidence. Perhaps if the main actress category in Musical or Comedy is weak at the Golden Globes, Tomlin could sneak in (she’s being singled out by some as best of the quartet). Even that is unlikely.

Yet there is one race where 80 for Brady could play and that’s Original Song. Diane Warren is the writer of “Gonna Be You” which is sung by the quintet of Dolly Parton, Belinda Carlisle, Cyndi Lauper, Gloria Estefan, and Debbie Harry. Between those five crooners, that’s over 80 Grammy nominations. Then there’s Diane Warren. She rather famously has received 13 Academy mentions without a trip to the stage. This includes ballads such as “Because You Loved Me” from Up Close & Personal and “How Do I Live” from Con Air. She received her 14th nod last week for “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman where it’s doubtful the 14th time will be the charm. Warren is receiving a lifetime achievement prize so she will be an Oscar winner. With the star power involved in the “Gonna Be You”, the chances of 80 for Brady being a nominee are actually solid. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: The One and Only Ivan

Disney’s streaming service combines humans and familiar faces voicing creatures this weekend with the release of The One and Only Ivan, based on the 2012 children’s book by K.A. Applegate. Directed by Thea Sharrock, the family friendly fantasy features Bryan Cranston, Ramon Rodriguez, and Ariana Greenblatt in front of the camera. Stars including Sam Rockwell, Angelina Jolie, Danny DeVito, Helen Mirren, Brooklyn Prince, and Chaka Khan (!) lend their voices as gorillas, elephants, and dogs.

In what is now a familiar story on this blog, Ivan was intended for theatrical release last Friday before the COVID-19 pandemic altered the plans. It is now hitting the Disney+ service this weekend. Why an Oscar Watch post for this unlikely contender? Fair question as even a Visual Effects nod is probably a long shot. Reviews out today are decent, but not overwhelmingly positive with a current 64% Rotten Tomatoes score.

There is, however, a solid shot for Ivan to come under Academy consideration and that’s with Original Song. It was announced this week that Diane Warren has written the track “Free” that will play over the end credits. Performed by Charlie Puth, the song is another possibility in a lengthy list of Warren’s works that could vie for a nomination.

Diane Warren has been nominated in the Original Song race 11 times over four decades. This began with “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from 1987’s Mannequin and runs through last year with “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough. In between, we have massive hits like Celine Dion’s “Because You Loved Me” from Up Close and Personal and the Aerosmith ballad “I Don’t Wanna Miss a Thing” from Armageddon in the 90s. Despite the multitude of nods, Warren has never made the trip to the podium.

I doubt that “Free” would earn her the win, but a 12th nomination is certainly feasible. It remains to be seen how this particular category will play out in the coming months. Billie Eilish’s title track for the upcoming 007 adventure No Time to Die will likely make it in the final five.

Bottom line: Original Song could mark the one and only nod for Ivan next year. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…