Tag: Up

97th Academy Awards Predictions: June 23rd Edition

It has been two weeks since my previous Oscar predictions in the eight major categories of Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions.

Perhaps the biggest development in that time frame (nothing really significant happened via the Tribeca Film Festival) is the massive box office performance for Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2. Not only did it land the second highest animated feature debut of all time, it just scored the biggest second weekend ($100 million) for its genre in history. As it is easily exceeding expectations at multiplexes, could it sneak into the Best Picture race?

I doubt it. There have only been 3 animated pics up for the grand prize (all Disney): 1991’s Beauty and the Beast, 2009’s Up, and 2010’s Toy Story 3. You’ll notice that 2015’s Inside Out is not on the list and it garnered stronger reviews than its sequel. Part 2 is a shoo-in for an Animated Feature nom and it could even make an appearance in Adapted Screenplay (though you’ll see its toward the bottom of my hopefuls).

As far as rankings, there is movement to discuss. I’ve vaulted Amy Adams to #1 in my Best Actress quintet for Nightbitch. It was announced earlier this week that it will screen at the Toronto Film Festival in September and that Adams will receive the Tribute Performer Award while there. Other recent takers of that prize are Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale). Wanna take a wild guess what they all have in common?

Oh… there’s more. I am now putting Sing Sing atop the charts for Best Picture over Steve McQueen’s Blitz. The buzz for the former has been steady since its Toronto unveiling in 2023 and it sounds like the type of crowdpleaser that the Academy could eat up. Like CODA from 2021, it could be a BP recipient where its director fails to get nominated. Speaking of that category, I’m elevating Denis Villeneuve to the top spot for Dune: Part Two over McQueen.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 4) (+3)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)

6. Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)

10. The End (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Nightbitch (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)

13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A Real Pain (PR: 18) (+4)

15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)

16. Nickel Boys (PR: 14) (-2)

17. His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-4)

18. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

19. Maria (PR: 16) (-3)

20. Here (PR: 23) (+3)

21. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+1)

22. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-3)

23. Dídi (PR: 20) (-3)

24. Gladiator II (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bird

Kinds of Kindness

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Pablo Larrain, Maria

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (E)

8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Demi Moore, The Substance

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (E)

12. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

George MacKay, The End

Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Emily Watson, Small Things like These

Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 10) (E)

11. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux

Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. The End (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Apprentice (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Dídi (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Maria (PR: 13) (E)

14. Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

15. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

We Live in Time

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Queer (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hit Man (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Fire Inside (PR: 10 (E)

11. The Collaboration (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Here (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Inside Out 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Actor (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Small Things like These

Best Picture 2008: The Expanded Ten

Earlier this summer, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!

Beginning today… my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there were always five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.

This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in beginning in 2008. In fact, it’s because of that year’s biggest grosser not being included that may have prompted the Academy to expand again in the first place. We’ll get there in just a minute.

We do, of course, know five of the ten and that would be the ones that were nominated. Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire dominated the ceremony with ten nods and an impressive eight victories in Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Sound Mixing.

David Fincher’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button received the most overall mentions with 13 and took home 3 (Art Direction, Makeup, Visual Effects).

Our other trio of contenders were Ron Howard’s Frost/Nixon (o for 5 in nominations), Gus Van Sant’s Milk (8 nods with Sean Penn winning Actor as well as an Original Screenplay statue), and Stephen Daldry’s The Reader (5 nominations with Kate Winslet taking Actress).

The 81st Academy Awards were a rare year when the five Picture hopefuls matched the five filmmakers nominated in Best Director. In other words, there are no clues there for additional BP pics for the purposes of this post.

Yet for the ones that could’ve made the dance in an expanded lineup, we do begin with 2008’s largest moneymaker and that’s Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight. It did manage to score 8 mentions with Heath Ledger winning a posthumous Supporting Actor prize (in addition to Sound Editing gold). The fact that it didn’t break into BP was heavily criticized online and elsewhere. If there had been 10 pics up, that almost certainly wouldn’t have been the case.

I would say the same for Pixar’s Wall-E. When it went to 10 movies in 2009 and 2010, the studio’s Up and Toy Story 3 were in. The robotic adventure was the victor in Animated Feature and was nominated in five more races in Original Screenplay, Original Score, Original Song, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. Like Knight, Wall-E is an easy pick.

For the 8th spot, I’m fairly confident in Doubt. John Patrick Shanley’s drama (based on his Pulitzer Prize winning play) saw four of its actors nominated and was up for Adapted Screenplay. That combo is enough to assume inclusion.

Then it gets complicated for the 9th and 10th slots and there’s a few possibilities to ponder. Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler saw Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei up, but a screenplay miss makes me skeptical. Clint Eastwood’s Changeling had three noms (including Angelina Jolie in Actress), but drew mixed reviews. Woody Allen’s Vicky Christina Barcelona, despite taking the Golden Globe in Musical/Comedy, was only nominated for Penelope Cruz’s supporting turn (for which she won). Martin McDonagh’s In Bruges and Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky were both up for Original Screenplay and that race alone. There’s usually one or two screenplay nominees that are only up for that category. Iron Man was a gigantic hit which kicked off the MCU. I doubt the Academy would have honored two comic book adaptations. The Duchess won Costume Design and was nominated for its Art Direction. It also was greeted with a mixed critical response.

All of those titles, to one degree or another, are worthy of consideration for the last two spots. I’m going with an indie selection in Courtney Hunt’s Frozen River which was nominated for Actress (Melissa Leo) and Original Screenplay. Let’s call it 2008’s Winter’s Bone (which would make the 2010 BP ten).

Lastly, I’m naming Revolutionary Road from Sam Mendes. Despite it missing noms for stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, it received a Golden Globe nod in Drama and three Academy mentions for Supporting Actor (Michael Shannon), Art Direction, and Costume Design. That might have been just enough for #10.

So there you have it! That means my 2008 Best Picture expanded to ten is:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Doubt

Frost/Nixon

Frozen River

Milk

The Reader

Revolutionary Road

Slumdog Millionaire

Wall-E

I’ll have 2007 up for your reading pleasure soon!

June 30-July 2 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (06/29): I have my estimate for Ruby Gillman from to $10.8M to $7.8M, which puts it in fifth instead of fourth.

Harrison Ford hopes to retire his iconic character with boffo box office returns as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny whips into theaters. We also have DreamWorks Animation’s Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken seeking success amid serious competition. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be perused here:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Box Office Prediction
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken Box Office Prediction

Disney might not have done itself any favors when it screened Destiny last month at the Cannes Film Festival. The critical reaction was rather weak as it sits with 62% on Rotten Tomatoes. The fifth entry in the franchise’s much maligned 2008 predecessor Kingdom of the Crystal Skull managed 77%. I suspect that expectations should be tempered and I have it hitting mid 60s for what would be considered a significantly disappointing beginning.

Slots 2-4 should be quite animated with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Elemental losing around 30-35%. That could put both of them ahead of Ruby. The fact that it’s not based on known IP won’t help and neither will the level of competition. I have it barely topping $10 million for a fourth place start.

No Hard Feelings should round out the top five with a 40% range decline in its sophomore frame.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Predicted Gross: $65.3 million

2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

3. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. No Hard Feelings

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (June 23-25)

Thanks to the disastrous performance of The Flash (we’ll get there shortly), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swung back into 1st place in week #4. The acclaimed animated sequel took in $19 million. I was right on target with $18.9 million and it’s up to a terrific $316 million with $400 million in its sights.

Pixar’s Elemental, after a poor premiere, was on less shaky ground in its follow-up outing. The A Cinemascore grade probably helped as it dropped a commendable 38% at $18.4 million (I went lower with $16.8 million). That’s the smallest Pixar sophomore frame downslide since Up 14 years ago. The total is $65 million in ten days.

The Flash… wow. After a shockingly low $55 million opening, the DCEU debacle plunged 72% and landed in third with only $15.1 million. I was more generous at $17.5 million. The ten-day take is $87 million and it should be out of the top five in only its third go-round. Embarrassing.

Jennifer Lawrence’s raunchy comedy No Hard Feelings debuted in fourth with $15 million, exceeding my call of $11.7 million. For its genre, that’s a pretty solid haul as comedies have struggled in recent years. It should manage to hold up decently in subsequent weekends.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts rounded out the top five with $11.7 million, rising above my $9.3 million projection. The three-week gross is $123 million.

Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City expanded nationwide and nabbed the highest per theater average on the chart. The star-studded tale made an impressive $9 million and went above my $7.6 million guesstimate. It’s at $10.2 million when factoring its limited release dollars from the previous weekend.

Finally, The Little Mermaid was seventh with $8.5 million (I said $7 million) to bring its earnings to $270 million in five weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five

And now for a new category on my blog that will update itself yearly after 13 initial posts covering 2009-21. It’s a simple concept. In 2009 – the Academy shifted their rules from a set amount of five Best Picture nominees to 10. That lasted for 2 years. In 2011, the number could fluctuate anywhere from 5-10. In most years, the magic number was 8 or 9 (it was never less than 8). Last year, the big race reverted back to a definite 10.

So… what if it hadn’t? What if 5 nominees was never altered? Well, Oscar speculators like yours truly would have to write posts predicting what would’ve been the final five. So that’s what this is all about.

Naturally it begins with 2009. Before that, something from 2008 might’ve contributed to the shift when The Dark Knight famously missed BP even though it was a critical darling and box office smash. A shift to 10 allowed popcorn favorites and smaller titles to make the cut. And they did.

When it comes to whittling down from 10 (or later 8 or 9) to five, there’s plenty of factors in play. What else did the movie get nominated for or win? Some races are more important than others like Director and Editing or the Screenplay derbies.

Yet it’s far from an exact science. This is educated guesswork based on Oscar history. I’ll walk through each title and give an ultimate Yes or No on whether it makes the five. The first is automatic and that’s whatever won. In 2009 that honor belonged to…

The Hurt Locker

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes because it won Best Picture.

The other 9? That’s where it gets interesting. Let’s take them alphabetically, shall we?

Avatar

When Oscar nominations rolled out near the beginning of 2010, James Cameron’s 3D sensation was basking in the glow of becoming the biggest movie ever. That meant he was breaking his own record from 13 years earlier with Titanic. Cameron was nominated for Director – losing to ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow for Locker. The film also didn’t manage a Screenplay nod though Cameron is known more for his technical prowess than writing skills. On the tech side it managed 7 nods and won three (Art Direction, Cinematography, Visual Effects). So…

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Though it lost a number of its nods to Locker, the gargantuan grosses would’ve been enough for it to advance.

The Blind Side

Sandra Bullock’s crowd pleasing football drama made her an Oscar winner. Yet those are the only two nominations it received as it couldn’t make the Adapted Screenplay shortlist. In fact, Avatar and this are the only two BP nominees not to see their scripts mentioned.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. This is a perfect example of a blockbuster getting in due to the expansion that wouldn’t have with just five.

District 9

Neill Blomkamp’s acclaimed sci-fi tale was a surprise summer hit and he’s yet to replicate its mix of audience and critical appreciation. It was nominated in three other races – Adapted Screenplay, Visual Effects, and Film Editing. No wins.

Does It Make the Final Five?

This one is actually close for me. The screenplay and editing nods certainly make it doable. If it had landed Director, I’d probably say yes. A bit of a coin flip, but I’ll land on No.

An Education

The coming-of-age pic scored Carey Mulligan an Actress nod as well as Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

It’s not totally out of the realm of possibility that it could’ve snuck in, but gotta go No. It missed a Golden Globe nod for example and a lot of the focus was on Mulligan’s work.

Inglourious Basterds

Quentin Tarantino’s WWII opus was his return to significant awards attention 15 years following Pulp Fiction. In addition to the Pic nod, he was nominated for his direction and screenplay (losing both to Locker). Other nominations: Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, Film Editing, and a Supporting Actor victory for Christoph Waltz.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The 8 nominations are enough to indicate as much.

Precious

The breakthrough drama from Lee Daniels scored five other mentions for Directing, Gabourey Sidibe in Actress, Mo’Nique in Supporting Actress (a victory), Adapted Screenplay (another win), and Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The screenplay win puts it over the top.

A Serious Man

The Coen Brothers dark comedy received just one other nod for their screenplay with acclaimed lead Michael Stuhlbarg missing the Best Actor cut.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Even with the love for its brotherly makers – No.

Up

As far as I’m concerned, the Pixar masterpiece’s first few minutes should win Best Picture every year. The tearjerker was a rare animated Best Picture contender and it contended for four others. It obviously won Animated Feature as well as Original Score in addition to mentions in Original Screenplay and Sound Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

I’m saying No, but I’m not sure of that. I’d probably put it sixth.

Up in the Air

Our other Up contender is Jason Reitman’s workplace dramedy which received six nods. The others were Director, Actor (George Clooney), Supporting Actress (both Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick), and Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. While it retrieved no statues, I think it would’ve just edged other hopefuls such as Up or District 9.

So that means if 2009 had just five Best Picture nominees, I believe they would’ve been:

The Hurt Locker (winner)

Avatar

Inglourious Basterds

Precious

Up in the Air 

An important note – the movies here match the five Best Director nominees. That’s rare and that will be rare in subsequent postings on years that follow. From 2000-2008 that only occurred twice (2005 and 2008). So don’t get used to it.

I shall return soon with my rumblings and final five for 2010!

Oscar Watch: Soul

Disney/Pixar’s second 2020 release Soul has long been seen as their most viable Oscar contender over this spring’s Onward. Today’s buzz after it held the first screening at the London Film Festival confirms that. The jazz infused tale from Pete Docter and Kemp Powers is being called two familiar adjectives in the studio’s lexicon – heartfelt and crowd pleasing. Soul, after experiencing delays due to the COVID pandemic, is slated for a Disney+ debut on Christmas Day.

Featuring the voices of Jamie Foxx, Tina Fey, Questlove, Phylicia Rashad, Daveed Diggs, and Angela Bassett, several reviews are already claiming it’s in the upper echelon of Pixar pics. Docter is no stranger to Academy love. All three of his directorial efforts – Monsters Inc., Up, Inside Out – were nominated for Best Animated Feature. The latter two emerged victorious and Up is one of three animated flicks to achieve a Best Picture nomination.

The question is not whether Soul will make the final cut in Animated Feature. It absolutely will and it’s absolutely the strong front runner to win. A better debate is whether this is the fourth animated effort to contend for the big prize. I don’t believe that’s automatic. Inside Out also garnered sterling critical reaction in 2015 and fell short of that achievement. However, Soul has solidified its position as a legit hopeful.

Additionally, expect Best Sound and the Original Score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross to be in the mix. Bottom line: Soul helped it cause to play beyond Animated Feature. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Wolfwalkers

Disney/Pixar isn’t the only entity with a sterling track record in the Best Animated Feature race at the Oscars. Irish outlet Cartoon Saloon has seen all three of their features nominated in the category. In all these instances, their product lost to a film with Disney and Pixar stamped on the credits.

Saloon’s fourth title is the environmentally conscious adventure Wolfwalkers, which screened at the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend. It is Saloon’s third collaboration with filmmaker Tomm Moore (who co-directs alongside Ross Stewart). His 2009 effort The Secret of Kelis scored a nod and lost to Up. Follow-up Song of the Sea fell short to Big Hero 6. The studio’s third feature – 2017’s The Breadwinner – made the final five with Coco emerging as the victor.

Early reviews from Toronto indicate that Wolfwalkers is another winner and it seems bound for nomination #4 for the Saloon. The pic is slated for stateside distribution later this year via Apple TV. Yet Pixar awaits with the impending release of Soul, which is currently seen as the favorite to take the gold.

Bottom line: Cartoon Saloon should make it 4 for 4 in Best Animated Feature. Beating the Mouse Factory looks to be its ongoing challenge. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Cannes Do Spirit

The Cannes Film Festival, originally scheduled for May in the French Riviera, was canceled this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, an announcement today confirmed that the long running fest will exist in some form. And like everything in 2020… it’s a little confusing. A lineup announcement of 56 pictures was put out as being in the Cannes fold. However, these titles will premiere at various other events scheduled later in the year such as the Toronto and Telluride festivals, among others.

Awards watchers know that Cannes is a fertile breeding ground for Oscar hopefuls. Just last year, Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite won top Cannes prize the Palme d’or and eventually won Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Some other titles (among many) that premiered at Cannes and got Oscar attention include Apocalypse Now, The Piano, Pulp Fiction, and The Pianist. 

So what are some significant 2020 Cannes contenders that could vie for Oscar gold? I’ll give you a quintet and we start with Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch. The latest effort from the acclaimed filmmaker is his live-action follow-up to 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel which nabbed a leading nine nominations at that year’s Oscars. The cast is filled with familiar faces and many Anderson regulars including Benicio del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Frances McDormand, Timothee Chalamet, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson, Edward Norton, Saoirse Ronan, Willem Dafoe, and Anjelica Huston. It is obviously high on the list for potential players throughout awards season.

Ronan also costars in Ammonite, a period drama from director Francis Lee. Her costar is Kate Winslet and between the two of them they have 11 Academy nominations. Expect plenty of chatter as to their viability in the performance races.

Steve McQueen is premiering not one, but two pictures with the Cannes label – Lovers Rock and Mangrove. The director saw his 2013 pic 12 Years a Slave awarded Best Picture. Both of his new titles focus on race relations in the United Kingdom.

Finally, Pixar is in the mix with Soul. Originally scheduled for summer, it was pushed back to November and is rightfully seen as a top tier contender in the Animated Feature derby. Featuring the voices of Jamie Foxx and Tina Fey, Soul is directed by Pete Docter. He’s responsible for two of the studio’s most acclaimed entries and Oscar winners – 2009’s Up and 2015’s Inside Out.

I would suspect that the 51 other Cannes selections could wind up in the mix as well (especially in the International Feature Film race). Time will tell, but the Cannes label will carry on in 2020 (albeit under unforeseen and unique circumstances).

Summer 2009: The Top 10 Hits and More

Today we continue with my recaps of the movie summers from 30, 20, and 10 years ago. I’ve already covered 1989 and 1999 and if you missed them, you can find them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/10/summer-1989-the-top-10-hits-and-more/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/23/summer-1999-the-top-10-hits-and-more/

Looking over the 2009 list, it’s a reminder of how one thing in particular has changed in just a decade. In the summer of 2008, Iron Man came out and kickstarted the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Two seasons later, Iron Man 2 followed. In every summer since, there’s been a massive MCU title often ruling the charts. 2009 is the last year not to feature one.

Instead, one of the most indelible images from 10 years past is Mike Tyson belting out a Phil Collins classic.

As I’ve done with previous entries, I’ll recount the top ten hits along with some other notable pics and flops. Let’s get to it!

10. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra

Domestic Gross: $150 million

Hasbro was kind of the MCU of this summer by bookending the top 10. Based on their popular set of action figures, Cobra spawned a sequel and introduced many moviegoers to Channing Tatum.

9. The Proposal

Domestic Gross: $163 million

What a year for Sandra Bullock. First she has this huge rom com with Ryan Reynolds and months later gets her Oscar winning turn in The Blind Side. Not to mention Betty White is in this!

8. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian

Domestic Gross: $177 million

While it couldn’t match the $250 million earned by its 2006 predecessor, the Ben Stiller led  family adventure sequel still did enough for a part 3 to eventually follow.

7. X–Men Origins: Wolverine

Domestic Gross: $179 million

The first of three spinoffs for Hugh Jackman’s iconic clawed character, this is generally considered the worst of them. It still made a pretty penny and gave us a first glimpse at Ryan Reynolds as Wade Wilson, aka Deadpool.

6. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs

Domestic Gross: $196 million

The third of these five animated tales, Dinosaurs stands at the largest grosser by a mere $1 million over 2006 predecessor Ice Age: The Meltdown.

5. Star Trek

Domestic Gross: $257 million

J.J. Abrams was able to bring this long running film and TV milestone to the next generation in a critically acclaimed way. His reboot remains the highest grossing entry in the canon of Trek. Two sequels so far have followed.

4. The Hangover

Domestic Gross: $277 million

The breakout comedy of the summer made stars out of Bradley Cooper and Zach Galifianakis in particular and had the aforementioned Mike Tyson musical moment of glory. Two lesser regarded sequels followed.

3. Up

Domestic Gross: $293 million

Pixar had another smash hit with this tale of aging and wonder that contains my personal favorite sequence of any of their titles. The opening montage of a couple’s journey through life is simultaneously beautiful and devastating.

2. Harry Potter and the Half–Blood Prince

Domestic Gross: $301 million

This sixth Potter pic set up the two part franchise finale and it stands at the third biggest grosser behind the eighth and final entry and the first film in 2001.

1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Domestic Gross: $402 million

The follow-up to the 2007 original, Michael Bay’s metallic action extravaganza is the high point in terms of box office dollars overall and largest opening, even though critics mercilessly crucified it.

And now for some other notable flicks from the summer that was 10 years ago:

Angels & Demons

Domestic Gross: $133 million

The sequel to The Da Vinci Code, the return of Tom Hanks as Robert Langdon performed decently, but nowhere near the $217 million achieved by its predecessor. The next sequel Inferno bombed.

Inglourious Basterds

Domestic Gross: $120 million

Quentin Tarantino’s revisionist World War II saga become his best earning pic at the time and earned a slew of Oscar nods, including a win for scene stealer Christoph Waltz.

District 9

Domestic Gross: $115 million

Made for a mere $30 million, Neill Blomkamp announced himself a serious force of sci-fi nature with heralded work that nabbed a Best Picture nod.

Public Enemies

Domestic Gross: $97 million

This gangster tale from Michael Mann was headlined by Johnny Depp and Christian Bale as they took a break between their respective pirate and bat franchises. It was a slight box office disappointment as it couldn’t quite match its $100 million budget back domestically.

Julie & Julia

Domestic Gross: $94 million

Meryl Streep got her umpteenth Oscar nod playing famed chef Julia Child in this Nora Ephron dramedy that proved to be a nice August hit.

Bruno

Domestic Gross: $60 million

There was enough goodwill left over from Sacha Baron Cohen’s smash Borat to propel this satire about a fashion journalist to a $30 million opening weekend. It fell off quickly after that impressive start.

Drag Me to Hell

Domestic Gross: $42 million

Following on the heels of his Spider–Man trilogy, this horror comedy brought Sam Raimi back to his Evil Dead roots. Box office dollars were just ok, but critics appreciated it.

(500) Days of Summer

Domestic Gross: $32 million

Made for a tiny $7.5 million, Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Zooey Deschanel charmed audiences with this rom com from Marc Webb. He would take over the Spidey franchise from Raimi shortly thereafter.

The Hurt Locker

Domestic Gross: $17 million

Kathryn Bigelow’s intense tale of bomb technicians in Iraq made a name for Jeremy Renner. While its box office earnings weren’t that potent, the real reward came later when it won the Oscar for Best Picture and Bigelow became the first female to be awarded Best Director.

We move to pictures that failed to meet expectations or were outright flops.

Terminator Salvation

Domestic Gross: $125 million

The Governor of California sat this one out and this McG directed franchise entry couldn’t match the opening of part 3 from six years prior. Today it’s perhaps best known for a secretly recorded onset argument between McG and star Christian Bale.

The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3

Domestic Gross: $65 million

A remake of a 1974 Walter Matthau action flick about hijacked subway cars, Tony Scott’s collaboration starring Denzel Washington and John Travolta fell short of anticipated blockbuster status.

Funny People

Domestic Gross: $51 million

Judd Apatow had made two huge comedies with The 40 Year Old Virgin and Knocked Up. This one centered on the world of stand-up with Adam Sandler and Seth Rogen. It was more personal and divided critics and crowds alike.

Land of the Lost

Domestic Gross: $49 million

Based on a loopy 1970s TV series, Will Ferrell had a rare bomb with this critically derided prehistoric pic. It didn’t earn half of its $100 million price tag back stateside.

Year One

Domestic Gross: $43 million

Yet another prehistoric comedic failure, the talents of director Harold Ramis and Jack Black and Michael Cena couldn’t get reviewers or audiences on its side.

Imagine That

Domestic Gross: $16 million

Families ignored this particular Eddie Murphy headliner that stands as one of his lowest grossing efforts.

And that does it for my seasonal summer recaps! A year from now… look for 1990, 2000, and 2010 coming your way.

Oscar Watch: Toy Story 4

The fourth edition of Toy Story is unveiled in theaters next weekend and reviews are out today. It is the 21st film for Pixar that began in 1995 with… Toy Story. And when it comes to Oscar voters honoring the studio’s works, there’s a rich history.

Critics so far have given a 100% stamp of approval to the sequel. The Academy established the Best Animated Feature in 2001. There’s been 18 winners and half of them are Pixar pics. The studio has also nabbed two nods in Best Picture with 2009’s Up and 2010’s… Toy Story 3.

First things first: there is approximately zero doubt that part four will get Animated Feature recognition. And unless something special comes along in the second half of the year (perhaps Frozen 2?), it has an excellent shot at winning. It’s also feasible that it could land Pixar’s third Picture nod, but that is far less certain at this juncture.

Another category where Toy Story 4 could contend is Best Original Song. There’s two possibilities: Randy Newman’s “I Can’t Let Yourself Throw Away” and “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy”, which was written by Newman and is performed by country superstar Chris Stapleton.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Missing Link

The stop-motion animated adventure Missing Link hits theaters next weekend and it’s the latest effort from the studio Laika. Reviews have been sturdy for the Bigfoot tale featuring the voices of Hugh Jackman, Zoe Saldana, and Zach Galifianakis. Its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 91%.

When it comes to Oscar nominations for their material, Laika has quite the batting average… as in 100%. For their four previous efforts, they’ve also all lost to Disney titles. In 2009, Coraline lost to Up. ParaNorman came up short to Brave in 2012. In 2014, it was Big Hero 6 over The Boxtrolls. Two years later, Kubo and the Two Strings couldn’t emerge over Zootopia.

Could history repeat itself? Absolutely. While critical reaction is solid, Link has little chance at winning the Best Animated Feature award. And, yes, Mouse Factory competition is legit with sequels Toy Story 4 and Frozen 2. There’s another sequel already released from DreamWorks – How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World – that also looks to nab a nod.

With five slots, there’s a chance Link could be the first Laika flick to miss a nomination. However, their track record is considerable and I wouldn’t count it out. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…