Kristen Stewart seems to have found another acclaimed indie role with the premiere of Seberg today at the Venice Film Festival. From director Benedict Andrews (best known for Una), the pic casts Stewart as actress Jean Seberg (best known for 1960’s Breathless), whose career was put in jeopardy by her association with an African-American activist played by Anthony Mackie. Costars include Jack O’Connel, Margaret Qualley, and Vince Vaughn.
Reviews for the film itself are a bit shaky. Yet it’s Stewart once again being singled out for her strong work. The Twilight performer has had a run of applauded roles in titles such as Cloudsof SilsMaria and PersonalShopper. The Academy has yet to take notice and I’m skeptical they will here considering competitors in higher profile material. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
It’s my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories coming your way and there has been some news since last Thursday. It was officially confirmed that Martin Scorsese’s passion project Silence will be released in December in time for awards consideration (maybe we’ll finally get a trailer soon!). There were trailers released for some high-profile contenders: Denzel Washington’s Fences and Mike Mills’s 20th Century Women.
As we do every week, I’ll rank my top 25 contenders for Best Picture along with top 15 for the directing, acting, and screenplay races (you can also see the movement from the previous week’s ranking to now).
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 4)
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
7. Moonlight (PR: 6)
8. Loving (PR: 8)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Jackie (PR: 11)
11. Arrival (PR: 12)
12. Sully (PR: 13)
13. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
14. Hell or High Water (PR: 16)
15. Live by Night (PR: 14)
16. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 15)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 19)
18. 20th Century Women (PR: 17)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 21)
20. Passengers (PR: 25)
21. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Founder (PR: 22)
23. Allied (PR: 18)
24. The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 23)
Dropped Out:
Collateral Beauty
Hacksaw Ridge
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
7. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)
8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)
10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
11. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
12. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)
14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Robert Zemeckis, Allied
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 9)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)
10. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 12)
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)
13. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 8)
14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
11. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)
12. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
14. Rachel Weisz, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Sally Field, My Name is Doris (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rooney Mara, Una
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)
7. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)
8. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
9. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 10)
10. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)
11. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)
12. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 13)
13. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
14. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
4. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)
8. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 11)
10. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
11. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 9)
12. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
13. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 10)
14. Sienna Miller, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty
Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La Land Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Jackie (PR: 4)
5. Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
8. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
9. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)
10. The Lobster (PR: 8)
11. Zootopia (PR: 11)
12. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
13. Gold (PR: 12)
14. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Collateral Beauty
Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 3)
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Lion (PR: 4)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Elle (PR: 11)
9. Sully (PR: 8)
10. Love & Friendship (PR: 12)
11. Indignation (PR: 13)
12. The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)
13. Live by Night (PR: 9)
14. The Jungle Book (PR: 15)
15. A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denial
And that’ll do it for the weekly Oscar predictions! Check back next week, folks…
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are here in the eight major categories. As with previous weeks, I’m listing the Top 25 possibilities for Best Picture and Top 15 for the other races, while showing the titles and performers I believe will currently be nominated. Plus – you can also track the movement of the rankings from the previous week to now.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 4)
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Silence (PR: 3)
5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)
6. Moonlight (PR: 5)
7. Lion (PR: 8)
8. Loving (PR: 6)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
11. Jackie (PR: 12)
12. Arrival (PR: 10)
13. Sully (PR: 14)
14. Live by Night (PR: 19)
15. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
16. Hell or High Water (PR: 15)
17. 20th Century Women (PR: 16)
18. Allied (PR: 17)
19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Collateral Beauty (PR: 22)
21. The Jungle Book (PR: 25)
22. The Founder (PR: 20)
23. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 24)
24. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 23)
25. Passengers (PR: 18)
Dropped Out:
The Girl on the Train
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 5)
7. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 10)
9. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 9)
11. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)
12. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 14)
14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (15)
15. Robert Zemeckis, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 6)
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 12)
9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)
11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
13. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
14. Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
Bryan Cranston, Wakefield
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
11. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)
12. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
14. Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 14)
15. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sally Hawkins, Maudie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
4. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
5. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 15)
7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 14)
9. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)
10. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 6)
11. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)
12. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
13. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)
14. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 12)
15. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bill Nighy, Their Finest
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 5)
5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 10)
8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
9. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 8)
10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 9)
11. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 12)
12. Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (PR: 15)
13. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 11)
15. Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Jackie (PR: 5)
5. Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
7. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
8. The Lobster (PR: 8)
9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 13)
10. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
11. Zootopia (PR: 10)
12. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
13. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 11)
14. Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rules Don’t Apply
Passengers
Miss Sloane
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 4)
4. Lion (PR: 5)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
7. Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Sully (PR: 8)
9. Live by Night (PR: 12)
10. The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)
11. Elle (PR: 10)
12. Love and Friendship (PR: 11)
13. Indignation (PR: 15)
14. Denial (PR: 13)
15. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)
And that’ll do it for my Oscar predictions this week! Until next time…
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories are here for your reading pleasure!
The Toronto Film Festival has ferreted out some would-be contenders, most notably Ewan McGregor’s American Pastoral which debuted to lackluster reviews. I had it at #9 last week for a Best Picture and it’s nowhere to be seen in the Top 25 now.
As I’ll do every week, I’m listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture along with 15 for Director, the Acting Races, and the Screenplay categories. I’m also noting the movement in the rankings among the contenders and what and who has dropped out.
Let’s go to it:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1) La Land Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Silence (PR: 3)
4) Fences (PR: 4)
5) Moonlight (PR: 5)
6) Loving (PR: 6)
7) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
8) Lion (PR: 11)
9) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10) Arrival (PR: 13)
11) Hidden Figures (PR: 15)
12) Jackie (PR: 12)
13) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
14) Sully (PR: 16)
15) Hell or High Water (PR: 18)
16) 20th Century Women (PR: 14)
17) Allied (PR: 19)
18) Passengers (PR: 17)
19) Live by Night (PR: 25)
20) The Founder (PR: 21)
21) The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
22) Collateral Beauty (PR: 23)
23) Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
24) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
25) The Jungle Book (PR: 22)
DROPPED OUT:
American Pastoral, Moana, Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 5)
5) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
7) Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
9) Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
10) Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 11)
11) Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 14)
12) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)
13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
14) Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
15) Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)
2) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
3) Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4) Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 6)
5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 8)
7) Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 9)
8) Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 4)
9) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
10) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield (PR: 11)
12) Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)
13) Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)
15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2) Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)
3) Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 2)
4) Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
9) Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)
10) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
11) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)
12) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
13) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 12)
14) Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 10)
15) Sally Hawkins, Maudie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
2) Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
4) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 1)
5) Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 14)
7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
9) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 15)
10) Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)
11) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
12) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked in Supporting)
13) Billy Nighy, Their Finest (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)
15) Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women
Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
John Legend, La La Land
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
4) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
5) Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
7) Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
8) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
9) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 5)
10) Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 14)
11) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 8)
12) Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: Not Ranked)
13) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
14) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 11)
15) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (13)
Dropped Out:
Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral
Laura Dern, The Founder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) La La Land (PR: 3)
2) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
3) Moonlight (PR: 2)
4) Loving (PR: 4)
5) Jackie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7) Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
8) The Lobster (PR: 8)
9) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
10) Zootopia (PR: 11)
11) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
12) Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 14)
13) Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Passengers (PR: 13)
15) Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Founder
Gold
Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Fences (PR: 1)
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
4) Silence (PR: 4)
5) Lion (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Arrival (PR: 8)
7) Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8) Sully (PR: 12)
9) The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)
10) Elle (PR: 11)
11) Love & Friendship (PR: 9)
12) Live by Night (PR: 13)
13) Denial (PR: 14)
14) The Jungle Book (PR: 15)
15) Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
American Pastoral
And there you have it, Oscar watchers! I’ll be back with my weekly predictions on September 22nd…
As readers of my blog may have seen last week, I made my first initial round of Oscar predictions last week. Now… we move onto the next phase. Every Thursday, I will be giving my weekly updated Oscar predictions in the following categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.
When we get into the later part of the year, the list will expand to include other categories. Each Thursday, I will list 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 possibilities for the other races and you’ll be able to track whether the picks go up or down on a weekly basis.
Please note that if I rank something #1 in a certain race, it doesn’t mean I think it’ll win. It means I think its nomination is currently the most probable. The film festival season (especially Toronto) can and probably will alter some of these picks even next week.
Let’s get right to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1) La Land Land
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Silence
4) Fences
5) Moonlight
6) Loving
7) Manchester by the Sea
8) Nocturnal Animals
9) American Pastoral
Other Possibilities:
10) The Birth of a Nation
11) Lion
12) Jackie
13) Arrival
14) 20th Century Women
15) Hidden Figures
16) Sully
17) Passengers
18) Hell or High Water
19) Allied
20) Moana
21) The Founder
22) The Jungle Bok
23) Collateral Beauty
24) Gold
25) Live by Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Martin Scorsese, Silence
4) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
5) Denzel Washington, Fences
Other Possibilities:
6) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
7) Jeff Nichols, Loving
8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
9) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
10) Denis Villenueve, Arrival
11) Garth Davis, Lion
12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
13) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
14) Pablo Larrain, Jackie
15) Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Denzel Washington, Fences
2) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
3) Joel Edgerton, Loving
4) Michael Keaton, The Founder
5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Other Possibilities:
6) Tom Hanks, Sully
7) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
8) Ryan Gosling, La La Land
9) Dev Patel, Lion
10) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield
12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
14) Andrew Garfield, Silence
15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Emma Stone, La La Land
2) Viola Davis, Fences
3) Natalie Portman, Jackie
4) Ruth Negga, Loving
5) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Other Possibilities:
6) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals
7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle
8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
9) Amy Adams, Arrival
10) Rooney Mara, Una
11) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
12) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers
13) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
14) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
15) Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
2) Liam Neeson, Silence
3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
5) Stephen Henderson, Fences
Other Possibilities:
6) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
8) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
9) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
10) Timothy Spall, Denial
11) Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women
12) Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
13) John Legend, La La Land
14) Aaron Eckhart, Sully
15) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals
4) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold
Other Possibilities:
6) Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral
7) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
8) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
9) Nicole Kidman, Lion
10) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
11) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan
12) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
13) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty
14) Margo Martindale, The Hollars
15) Laura Dern, The Founder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Manchester by the Sea
2) Moonlight
3) La La Land
4) Loving
5) Jackie
Other Possibilities:
6) 20th Century Women
7) Hell or High Water
8) The Lobster
9) The Birth of a Nation
10) The Founder
11) Zootopia
12) Gold
13) Passengers
14) Rules Don’t Apply
15) Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Fences
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Nocturnal Animals
4) Silence
5) American Pastoral
Other Possibilities:
6) Lion
7) Hidden Figures
8) Arrival
9) Love & Friendship
10) The Girl on the Train
11) Elle
12) Sully
13) Live by Night
14) Denial
15) The Jungle Book
And that’ll do it for now, folks! My weekly updates will be back next Thursday…
Rooney Mara burst onto the scene in 2011 in the Oscar nominated title role of TheGirlwiththeDragonTattoo. She received her second nomination last year in Supporting Actress with Carol. This weekend’s Telluride Film Festival has opened up the possibility of a third nod in six years with Una.
The drama is an adaptation of the stage play Blackbird, dealing with the serious theme of child molestation. It’s heavy stuff according to early reviews (mostly raves) and critics have singled out Mara’s performance. Benedict Andrews makes his directorial debut here with Ben Mendelsohn and Riz Ahmed among the supporting cast.
Whether or not Mara can get the nomination is based on at least three factors. First and foremost, there is no set release date for it, though it’s likely to get a 2016 awards qualifying run. Second, the studio will need to mount a real campaign for the picture to be widely seen. Finally, the Best Actress race on paper looks as competitive as it’s been in recent memory. Still – Telluride gave the actress some needed exposure for a potential third nomination.
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