The wizards and dragons of The Hobbit film series aren’t the only popular franchise characters returning to theaters during the second weekend of December 2013. Madea and company are back with Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas, the fifth entry in the cash cow of a series.
Let’s take a trip down the Madea franchise lane with the openings of each picture:
Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Family Reunion (2006) – $30 million
Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (2009) – $41 million
Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family (2011) – $25 million
Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection (2012) – $25.3 million
As you can see, the openings of the last two pics have not been as big as the first two entries (though $25 million is still a strong performance, especially since they only cost around $20M to produce). I think there’s a decent chance that A Madea Christmas outperforms its two predecessors due to the timely holiday theme. While I have doubts it will reach the low 40s opening of Madea Goes To Jail, it stands a shot of having the second highest opening of the franchise so far. The Madea flicks generally do about 40 some percent of its business during opening weekend and I anticipate the front loaded trend will continue with this one.
Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million
For my prediction on The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, click here:
The new films are highly likely to open at numbers 2 and 3 over the weekend. There is really no doubt that last weekend’s champ Iron Man 3 will remain #1 by a wide margin. The big question is: how far will it drop? The Marvel adventure had the second largest opening weekend of all time with $174.1 million. Its opening is second only to last summer’s The Avengers, which debuted with $207 million and dropped 50% in its sophomore frame. That’s a terrific hold for such a gargantuan debut and Disney/Marvel would love to see a similar hold here. With a great “A” Cinemascore grade, a drop of only half could occur, though I’ll predict it falls a little bit more.
The top five is likely to be rounded out by holdovers 42 and Pain and Gain. With that, my predictions for this weekend’s Top Five:
1. Iron Man 3
Predicted Gross: $83.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)
2. The Great Gatsby
Predicted Gross: $41.3 million
3. Tyler Perry Presents Peeples
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million
4. 42
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Pain and Gain
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million (representing a drop of 57%)
As always, updates will be posted on the Facebook page on Saturday with final results Sunday on the blog.
And if you think I’m wrong about the Gatsby and Peeples openings, I invite you to check out http://www.boxofficeace.com where you can compete against me with your own predictions.
Tyler Perry Presents Peeples is virtually assured the #3 spot at the box office this weekend when it debuts. The comedy should fall behind Iron Man 3 in its second weekend and The Great Gatsby, which is highly likely to open in the runner-up spot. I predicted a $41.3M opener for Gatsby.
Most of the flicks coming out of the Tyler Perry factory have been directed and/or written by the star. This time around, he’s only producing, but the studio was smart enough to put his name in the title, as with his other features. Perry’s non-Madea pictures tend to debut somewhere in the mid-teens to mid-twenties. Some recent examples:
The Family That Preys: $17.3 million opening
I Can Do Bad All By Myself: $23.4 million opening
Good Deeds: $15.5 million opening
Confessions of a Marriage Counselor: $21.6 million
Most of those titles did not debut in the heat of the summer movie season. That’s worth mentioning because Iron Man 3 will have a massive second frame and Gatsby should do well. There is competition out there.
The film basically looks like the Perry version of Meet the Parents. It’s got a good cast – Craig Robinson from “The Office”, “In Living Color” alum David Alan Grier, and Django Unchained co-star Kerry Washington. Simply having the name Tyler Perry attached to it likely means a respectable opening, though I don’t believe it reach above $20 million, even though that’s certainly possible. I’m thinking mid-to-high teens is a better possibility.
Tyler Perry Presents Peeples opening weekend prediction: $18.5 million
Tomorrow, I’ll make my predictions for the weekend’s top five, including my projection on how Iron Man 3‘s second weekend shapes up.
Every summer, we usually see a major breakout comedy that connects with audiences across the board. Last season, it was Ted which earned $218 million. In 2011, it was The Hangover Part II with $254 million, as well as Bridesmaids ($169M) and Horrible Bosses ($119M). In 2010, Grown Ups brought in $162 million. In 2009, the original Hangover grossed $277 million and The Proposal made $163 million.
This summer, there’s no shortage of contenders. The comedy winner could be The Hangover Part III and that film was already covered in my sequels blog post. However, that film faces serious challengers, particularly from two titles:
From Bridesmaids director Paul Feig comes The Heat, a buddy cop comedy starring Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy. This is Bullock’s first headlining role since her Oscar winning turn in The Blind Side. Added to that, McCarthy is a hot commodity right now with her spring comedy Identity Thief well exceeding analysts expectations. The Heat could easily post Bridesmaids size numbers when it opens June 28th.
We also have The Internship, which reteams Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson. Their first collaboration was, of course, Wedding Crashers. That came out in the summer of 2005 and grossed an astonishing $209 million. If The Internship delivers, it could be a real factor in the top comedy discussions. It’s out on June 7th.
These three titles are likely to have a healthy competition for the top spot (Grown Ups 2 is probably poised to earn between $100-$125 million and has also been covered in my sequels write-up).
There are plenty of other comedies that will attempt to bring crowds in. Two high-profile entries have yet to release a trailer: the road trip flick We’re the Millers (August 9) with Jason Sudeikis and Jennifer Aniston and Girl Most Likely (July 19), which brings us Kristin Wiig’s first starring role since Bridesmaids.
Then we have This is the End (June 12), which has Jonah Hill, James Franco, Seth Rogen, Danny McBride, Michael Cera, and others playing themselves in an end of the world scenario. The trailers are pretty damn funny and I’m particularly looking forward to this one. End could be a major breakout player if it’s as funny as its potential suggests.
The Tyler Perry factory brings us Peeples (May 10) starring the very funny Craig Robinson, who also is featued in This is the End. It basically looks like the Tyler Perry version of Meet the Parents, which his name alone will likely mean solid grosses.
The coming of age flick The Way, Way Back (July 5) with Steve Carell received rave reviews at Sundance and is being looked at as a potential sleeper hit.
And Woody Allen brings us his movie a year with Blue Jasmine (July 26) with Cate Blanchett and Alec Baldwin. Two years ago, Woody had an unexpected hit with Midnight in Paris. However, last summer his To Rome with Love tanked. No trailer is available at press time.
All in all, there are plenty of comedies to choose from this summer. If some Hangover fatigue occurs (something which I believe is possible), don’t be surprised to see Bullock and McCarthy as the comedy champions of the season.
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