Alien: Romulus will attempt to dethrone Deadpool & Wolverine after three weeks atop the charts while Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure looks to bring in youngsters and their parents. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The seventh feature in the Alien series dating back 45 years should grind out a #1 showing if it manages to hit in the lower to mid 30s or above. I have it coming in a bit under what 2017 predecessor Alien: Covenant achieved ($36 million).
Deadpool & Wolverine would fall to the #2 slot in its fourth frame, easing somewhere between 40-45%. It Ends with Us, starring Mrs. Deadpool Blake Lively, might lose around half its audience in its sophomore outing after a spectacular start (more on that below).
As for Ryan’s World the Movie: Titans Universe Adventure, it’s a giant question mark. Based on a popular YouTube channel that attracts plenty of kiddos, I have it in the mid single digits. That would put it in fifth after Twisters. However, I do think it has the capacity to over perform. Or… it could totally flop. I freely admitted in my longer write-up that I’m flying blind with this one.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:
1. Alien: Romulus
Predicted Gross: $35.2 million
2. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $29.5 million
3. It Ends with Us
Predicted Gross: $27.9 million
4. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
5. Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
Box Office Results (August 9-11)
Despite a serious challenge, the MCU reigned supreme as Deadpool & Wolverine took in $53.7 million for three in a row. That figure is beyond my $49.6 million prediction as this has banked $493 million domestically so far. Worldwide it has already scored a billion bucks.
As mentioned, It Ends with Us began with a terrific premiere. Based on the bestseller by Colleen Hoover, it was runner-up with a cool $50 million (doubling the reported $25 million price tag). My estimate kept rising last week, but it still outpaced my $43.8 million projection.
Twisters was third with $15 million compared to my $13.9 million forecast as the four-week tally reached $222 million.
Borderlands, based on a well-known video game series, laid claim to biggest bomb of 2024. With a rumored budget of $120 million, the critically blasted sci-fi action tale was fourth with $8.6 million. I was on target with an $8.1 million call.
Despicable Me 4 rounded out the top five with $7.9 million (I said $8.6 million) as the animated sequel is up to $330 million after six weeks.
Finally, M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap fell 57% in weekend #2 to $6.6 million, in line with my $6.1 million take. The thriller has made a so-so $28 million in ten days.
Blogger’s Updates (08/08): Two updates for the newcomers on the eve of their premieres. Bumping It Ends with Us from $39.8 million to $43.8 million and downsizing Borderlands from $11.3 million to $8.1 million.
After the 8th best second weekend of all time at the domestic box office, Deadpool & Wolverine should rule the charts for a third frame. Yet the most serious competition for Ryan Reynolds thus far will come from his wife Blake Lively. That’s courtesy of the romantic drama It Ends with Us based on the bestseller from Colleen Hoover. Its breakout potential could cause it to over perform even beyond my forecast. We also have the video game based sci-fi action comedy Borderlands with Cate Blanchett and Kevin Hart. My detailed prediction posts on both newbies can be found here:
It Ends should begin with impressive numbers. The source material looks to bring in a sizable female audience who have been underserved in these summer months. My low to mid 30s call puts it easily in second and I could envision it going even higher.
I’m not expecting fireworks for Borderlands. Despite its video game series being popular, my low double digits take would place it in fourth behind the fourth go-round for Twisters.
Deadpool & Wolverine should lose about half its sophomore weekend crowd and that would give it high 40s for a third championship session.
Despicable Me 4 may only fall one slot to fifth. The percentage drop should be meager compared to M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap. His latest thriller underwhelmed (more on that below) and I foresee it plummeting around 60% to sixth place.
Here’s how I see that top 6 playing out:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $49.6 million
2. It Ends with Us
Predicted Gross: $43.8 million
3. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
4. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. Borderlands
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
6. Trap
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
Box Office Results (August 9-11)
As mentioned, Deadpool & Wolverine managed the 8th largest weekend #2 with $96.8 million, easily clawing beyond my $84.6 million prediction. The MCU mashup has amassed $395 million in only ten days.
Twisters held tight in second with $22.8 million, blowing past my $18.1 million estimate. In three weeks, the sequel has hit $195 million with $200 million coming this week.
Mr. Shyamalan’s Trap performed in line with predecessors Old and Knock at the Cabin. In third place, the $15.4 million gross was under my $19.2 million projection. This opening is certainly on the lower end of the expected range and the C+ Cinemascore grade suggests the aforementioned large drop is coming.
Despicable Me 4 was fourth with $11.4 million compared to my $9.4 million call. The five-week total is $314 million.
Inside Out 2 rounded out the top five with $6.8 million for $626 million so far in eight weeks. I incorrectly had it outside the high five.
That’s because the family friendly and poorly reviewed Harold and the Purple Crayon couldn’t draw its crowd. With $6 million in sixth place, it fell under my $7.6 million prediction.
I wonder if M. Night Shyamalan cast Hayley Mills in Trap because it is about a parent being trapped at a concert. Josh Hartnett’s Cooper/The Butcher isn’t just stuck at that Lady Raven show. He’s held captive by memories of an abusive mother and maintaining a double life as doting dad and demented serial killer. Ms. Mills pulled double duty in Disney’s The Parent Trap some 60 plus years ago. It is nice to see her in a high profile project as an FBI profiler. Doesn’t it, however, seem like the type of weird Shyamalan touch to put her in the picture simply due to the title connection?
M. Night’s Disney breakout The Sixth Sense and follow-ups Unbreakable and Signs still stand as career highlights. You do know that his unnatural dialogue will be a constant and that’s even if those aforementioned strongest efforts. It’s present in Trap, but the wooden acting that often accompanies his thrillers is thankfully missing.
Hartnett, in his first leading role in a while, treats his teenage daughter Riley (Ariel Donoghue) to floor seats for pop sensation Lady Raven. She’s played by the writer/director’s own offspring Saleka. While enduring such a performance might be a chore for any middle-aged dad, he’s got bigger problems. As a kindly and quick to spew exposition T-shirt merchant (Jonathan Langdon) informs Cooper, the whole afternoon gig is an elaborate sting to nab 12 time murderer The Butcher.
That would, of course, be Cooper and he’s phone monitoring unlucky #13 tied up in a basement somewhere. Now he must pretend to enjoy the entertainment while searching for a way to bypass the heavy security and keep Riley relatively unsuspicious. To be fair, daughters that age probably think their dads are acting strangely without believing they’re homicidal maniacs.
This concept managed to put me in an odd and at times darkly enjoyable position. I found myself rooting for Cooper to solve this complicated puzzle and outwit the FBI being led by the former Mouse House child star. It works on Shyamalan’s terms for about one hour. Then it becomes considerably more convoluted and less engrossing.
The cast is not to blame. It’s amusing to watch Hartnett volley back and forth between personalities and Donoghue convinces in her bracelet donning fangirl love for the headliner. Saleka Shyamlan is fine while onstage though her more meaningful contributions unfortunately come later as the screenplay is unraveling.
I’ll make a concert analogy. The first couple of acts feel like Shyamalan playing his greatest hits dependably while not exactly knocking it out of the park. The encores have the sense of that artist bizarrely playing new tracks from an unreleased album. It’s not what we want and it goes on for longer that it has a right to.
It has been a quarter century since The Sixth Sense was a box office phenomenon that turned writer/director M. Night Shyamalan into a household name. The Academy took notice and rewarded the suspense thriller with six nominations including Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. It lost each of those races to American Beauty.
Since then, the sole Oscar nod for an M. Night joint is 2004’s The Village in Original Score (it fell short to Finding Neverland). In fact, his filmography has garnered more Razzie attention in the last two decades with Lady in the Water, The Happening, The Last Airbender, and After Earth.
Trap is the filmmaker’s latest with Josh Hartnett as a serial killer boxed in at a concert with his daughter (Ariel Donoghue). Costars include Saleka Shyamalan, Hayley Mills, and Alison Pill.
Like his most recent tales Old and Knock at the Cabin, critical reaction isn’t near strong enough for awards buzz. The RT rating for Trap is just 49%. On the flip side, the buzz probably isn’t poor enough for the Razzies to notice. Some reviews are going out of their way to applaud Josh Hartnett (similar to how they lauded James McAvoy’s work in Shyamalan’s Split). Don’t expect Academy voters to put him in the convo for Actor. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
M. Night Shyamalan’s thriller Trap looks to set a solid second place showing after the MCU behemoth that is Deadpool & Wolverine. We also have Harold and the Purple Crayon looking to draw in a family audience as August arrives at multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers right here:
Trap could have breakout potential with its concept of a serial killer being cornered at a concert with his unknowing daughter. The brand name recognition of its director could assist. Mid 20s seems doable, but I have it in the high teens. That should be enough to give it runner-up status over the third frame of Twisters which should also be in that same forecasted range.
Harold and the Purple Crayon is a tricky one. Based on a nearly 70-year-old kids book, parents and kids may turn up since most have already viewed Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2. I suspect the so-so trailers and quiet word-of-mouth could mean just higher single digits. That might mean fifth place just under Despicable.
Now we move to Deadpool & Wolverine. The eagerly awaited Marvel mashup smashed my projection (more on that below). This should be fairly front loaded as anticipation was sky high. Similar MCU fare that reached close to the D & W level (like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strangein the Multiverse of Madness) experienced sophomore drops in the low to high 60s. This may see high 50s or low 60s which would put it in the low to mid 80s.
And with that, my take on this weekend’s high five:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $84.6 million
2. Trap
Predicted Gross: $19.2 millionm
3. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $18.1 million
4. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
5. Harold and the Purple Crayon
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
Box Office Results (July 26-28)
Filmgoers devoured Deadpool & Wolverine, providing record setting numbers as the 34th MCU tale spawned the largest R-rated debut ever at $211.4 million (dwarfing my $176.1 million prediction). That’s also the 6th biggest domestic haul in history (between Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jurassic World) and 4th highest MCU beginning behind Avengers: Endgame, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and Avengers: Infinity War. The all-time July record was additionally achieved. Furthermore it marks a personal best for Peggy, the dog who plays Mary Puppins or Dogpool. After a rough couple of years for the MCU, this gets the franchise back in phenomenal order.
The massive over performance of Wade and Logan meant Twisters spiraled more than most thought it would. It fell an understandable 57% to second at $34.9 million compared to my $42 million estimate. The two-week tally is still a potent $154 million.
Despicable Me 4 was third with $14.5 million, in line with my $15.2 million call. The animated smash has amassed $291 million in four weeks.
Speaking of animated smashes, Inside Out 2 became the #1 domestic animated title of all time with $613 million and replacing previous champion Incredibles 2. The fourth placing showing this weekend gave it another $8.6 million (I said $8.4 million). Pixar’s sequel also stands as the gold medalist for worldwide numbers in its genre.
Longlegs rounded out the top five with $6.7 million, in range with my $6.4 million projection. The horror hit has scared up $58 million in three weeks.
Finally, the geriatric comedy The Fabulous Four with Bette Midler and Susan Sarandon belly flopped in eighth with a mere $1 million. I thought it might manage $1.5 million.
M. Night Shyamalan and Warner Bros hope Trap fills movie houses on August 2nd. The thriller casts Josh Hartnett as a serial killer trying to thwart a manhunt while attending a concert with his daughter (Ariel Donoghue). Mr. Shyamalan’s own daughter Saleka plays the artist at the venue. Hayley Mills (known for The Parent Trap some 63 years ago) and Alison Pill costar.
The writer/director experienced a mini career resurgence starting with 2017’s Split. His last two efforts haven’t generated huge numbers, but have been profitable due to low budgets. 2021’s Old started with $16 million and then grossed $48 million overall domestically. Last year’s Knock at the Cabin premiered to $14 million and $34 million total stateside. Both had reported price tags in the high teens to $20 million.
I haven’t seen the cost for Trap but its gimmick of a one place setting can’t be too expensive. Shyamalan’s pics do their business based on his name though there’s certainly limits compared to his early 2000s heyday. I doubt this will make much more than his aforementioned predecessors so let’s go high teens to low 20s.
Trap opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million
For my Harold and the Purple Crayon prediction, click here:
Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing is already out in limited release and the A24 title is doing pretty impressive business in its four venues before a planned August expansion. Is it doing well enough to warrant a #1 spot in the BP rankings where I’ve had it for weeks?
That is a legit question and one that I’m struggling with in this particular update. With heralded performances from Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, it certainly seems like the type of crowdpleaser that could take the top prize. This could be without Kwedar landing a directing nod as I’ve yet to have him in the top five. If that plays out, it would be a similar situation to 2021 and the CODA victory despite Sian Heder missing the directorial quintet.
The bottom line is this: the #1 position in BP for Sing Sing is tenuous. I’ve got it clinging to that number though I considered Steve McQueen’s Blitz, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two, and Edward Berger’s Conclave (the first trailer for it dropped this week). Of course, we are only a month and change away from festival season kicking off with Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Those events always assist in clearing up the picture.
There was speculation that Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2 may not make the 2024 calendar for Warner Bros. Even when I thought it was likely to release this fall, I didn’t have it pegged as a BP player. I did have Toni Collette listed as a potential Supporting Actress hopeful along with Nicholas Hoult in Actor and at the bottom of the listed 15 in Original Screenplay. I am dropping Juror for now and would certainly adjust if it does materialize on the schedule.
Speaking of Supporting Actress, we got our first glimpse of The Deliverance from Lee Daniels this week. The supernatural horror flick (out on Netflix in late August) is not your typical awards fare. However, I am listing Glenn Close as a possibility. It is Glenn Close after all and she managed an Oscar nod recently for the critically panned Hillbilly Elegy (where she also was up for a Razzie).
In other news, my constant speculation on category placement continues. Saoirse Ronan is now back to being a double nominee in my view for lead Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress for Blitz (I can’t wait until this is cleared up). Ronan’s inclusion back in the supporting derby displaces Conclave‘s Isabella Rossellini. Another unclear item is the screenplay placement for Emilia Pérez. It could be considered Adapted and that’s where I had it a few days ago, but now I’m putting it in Original Screenplay (and just barely missing a nom).
We have two significant alterations in Best Actor. While the top 3 remain the same, I am now elevating Sebastian Stan’s performance in A Different Man over Sebastian Stan’s work in The Apprentice. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) also enters the high five for the first time. André Holland (The Actor) drops out of the quintet.
In Supporting Actor, Adam Pearson in A Different Man enters the five over Denzel Washington in Gladiator II.
You can read all the movement below for these feature length categories!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 20) (+6)
15. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (+4)
16. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (-2)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)
18. Maria (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The End (PR: 15) (-4)
20. The Fire Inside (PR: 22) (+2)
21. ADifferent Man (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Hard Truths (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Dídi (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
25. His Three Daughters (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All We Imagine as Light
Here
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)
13. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)
15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Joshua Oppenheimer, The End
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (E)
15. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting Actress)
Zendaya, Challengers
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)
14. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Actress
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Emily Watson, Small Things like These
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)
9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (E)
11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (E)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)
11. The End (PR: 8) (-3)
12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Challengers (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
I Saw the TV Glow
Juror No. 2
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Queer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)
8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Original
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (E)
4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Uprising (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emmanuelle (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Girl with the Needle
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. Savages (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daughters (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (E)
4. Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Super/Man: A Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)
9. Union (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)
4. Conclave (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Megalopolis (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Conclave
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)
4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Longlegs
Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Blitz (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+1)
7. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 3) (-4)
8. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow
“Release” from Trap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Civil War (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place: Day One
Nosferatu
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Here (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
And that adds up to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nods:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Conclave, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Wicked
3 Nominations
A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Nickel Boys, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
2 Nominations
Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
We are beyond the midway point of 2024 so it’s time for me to forecast all feature-length film categories at the 97th Academy Awards! The result? Unsurprisingly, Dune: Part Two leads all nominees with 10 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez close behind at 9 and #1 BP selection Sing Sing at 7.
A caveat as obviously we are quite early to project certain races (Song comes to mind as does International Feature Film and Documentary Feature). Please note that all new competitions contain 10 possibilities while the acting and directing prizes list 15 (with 25 for BP). Those will likely get dwindled down around September.
We are still dealing with the matter of category placement. I’m going with the general consensus and now putting Carrie Coon’s work in His Three Daughters in lead Actress while her costar Natasha Lyonne is in supporting. Ms. Lyonne makes the cut in that race (replacing Coon).
I toyed with putting Saoirse Ronan back in Supporting Actress for Blitz since it’s been confirmed that her heralded role in The Outrun is officially out in October. Ultimately I decided to keep her in lead and I’m giving her the nom in Blitz over Outrun (slightly).
While BP remains the same, I’ve elevated Sean Baker’s direction in Anora over Mohammad Rasoulof for The Seed of the Sacred Fig. We also have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) in Supporting Actor for the first time and that displaces Harris Dickinson (Blitz) from the quintet. With its trailer out, Gladiator II rises three sports in the BP hopefuls.
You can read all the movement and peep the new races below! I’ll have another update available before the end of July…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)
12. Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (E)
15. The End (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Maria (PR: 19) (+3)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)
18. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 20) (+2)
19. A Real Pain (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Nosferatu (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Hard Truths (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-1)
23. His Three Daughters (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Here (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Dídi (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
We Live in Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (E)
12. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Payal Kapadaia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
15.Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters – moved to supporting
Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance
Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
11. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Hanks, Here
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (E)
13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters – moved to lead
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)
7. His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The End (PR: 8) (E)
9. Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (+1)
11. The Apprentice (PR: 9) (-1)
12. Challengers (PR: 15) (+3)
13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. I Saw the TV Glow (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Juror No. 2 (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Maria
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Hit Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Collaboration (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Here (PR: 15) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez
2. I’m Still Here
3. The Count of Monte Cristo
4. Uprising
5. Grand Tour
Other Possibilities:
6. Simon of the Mountain
7. Evil Does Not Exist
8. Emmanuelle
9. Kneecap
10. The Girl with the Needle
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2
2. The Wild Robot
3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
4. Flow
5. Memoir of a Snail
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2
7. Savages
8. The Most Precious of Cargoes
9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
10. Orion and the Dark
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Black Box Diaries
2. Daughters
3. Sugarcane
4. No Other Land
5. Will & Harper
Other Possibilities:
6. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
8. Gaucho Gaucho
9. Union
10. Frida
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Blitz
3. Nosferatu
4. Anora
5. Gladiator II
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez
7. Conclave
8. Joker: Folie à Deux
9. Queer
10. Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Gladiator II
4. Nosferatu
5. Blitz
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
7. Maria
8. Megalopolis
9. Conclave
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Blitz
3. Sing Sing
4. Anora
5. Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
8. Gladiator II
9. Challengers
10. Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Nosferatu
3. A Different Man
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
5. Maria
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
7. Joker: Folie à Deux
8. Sasquatch Sunset
9. Longlegs
10. Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Joker: Folie à Deux
3. Sing Sing
4. Queer
5. Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz
7. Gladiator II
8. Nickel Boys
9. Nosferatu
10. Challengers
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez
2. TBD from Sing Sing
3. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
5. TBD from Moana 2
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers
9. “Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow
10. “Release” from Trap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Blitz
3. Gladiator II
4. Nosferatu
5. Wicked
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
7. Joker: Folie à Deux
8. Conclave
9. Beetlejuce Beetlejuice
10. Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Gladiator II
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
4. Blitz
5. Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters
7. Wicked
8. A Quiet Place: Day One
9. Civil War
10. Nosferatu
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Gladiator II
3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
4. Mufasa: The Lion King
5. Here
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
7. Blitz
8. Twisters
9. Nosferatu
10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
And, for the first time in 2024, my tally for overall nominations for various pictures are as follows:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Sing Sing
6 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Queer
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys
2 Nominations
Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Maria, Mufasa: The Lion King, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Wicked
1 Nomination
The Actor, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Joker: Folie à Deux, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Sugarcane, Uprising, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
Horror flicks have seen mostly subpar returns in 2024 and the offspring of a genre mainstay attempts to turn that around with The Watchers on June 7th. Ishana Night Shyamalan, daughter of M., makes her directorial debut with the supernatural tale. Based on a novel by A.M. Shine, it stars Dakota Fanning, Georgina Campbell, Oliver Finnegan, and Olwen Fouéré.
Getting to an opening in the low teens has been a challenge for scary movies in the last few weeks. Recent examples include Abigail which made just over $10 million and The Strangers: Chapter 1 with $12 million.
Perhaps the family name could push this over $13 million. Dad serves as a producer and has his own project Trap out in August. I’ll say this doesn’t quite reach the teen and just clears double digits.
The Watchers opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million
For my Bad Boys: Ride or Die prediction, click here:
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