While Hasbro’s Transformers One fell short of expectations this past weekend, DreamWorks Animation looks to bring families out in force with The Wild Robot this Friday. We also have Francis Ford Coppola’s long in the works sci-fi epic Megalopolis premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
I projected a mid 30s start for Transformers and came to regret it (more on that below). I’m estimating the same for The Wild Robot which is generating stronger reviews and comes from a studio whose animated works usually perform well.
As for Megalopolis, it might be a megaflop. Coppola’s passion project premiered at Cannes to plenty of negative reaction. This might do decent business on the coasts, but I don’t expect much interest in between. A mid single digits gross could mean fourth place.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will drop to second after three weeks on top with a percentage dip in the low to mid 40s. Despite an A Cinemascore grade, Transformers will likely suffer with a low to mid 50s decline due to the Robot competition. Speak No Evil should round out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $33.8 million
2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million
3. Transformers One
Predicted Gross: $11.5 million
4. Megalopolis
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. Speak No Evil
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (September 20-22)
In an upset, moviegoers made Tim Burton’s sequel the champion three times in a row as Beetlejuice Beetlejuice took in $25.9 million. That’s right on target with my $26.7 million forecast as its total has reached $226 million.
Transformers One couldn’t catch on in the runner-up position with $24.6 million. That’s well under my $35.4 million take and it’s another underwhelming result for the franchise behind last year’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts.
Speak No Evil was third at $5.7 million, a bit shy of my $6.5 million call. The thriller has grossed $21 million after two weeks in multiplexes.
Halle Berry’s survival thriller was another yawner for Lionsgate in fourth with $4.4 million, on pace with my $4.7 million prediction.
Deadpool & Wolverine rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.9 million). In nine outings, 2024’s second largest domestic earner has amassed $627 million.
Finally, I didn’t do a projection for Demi Moore’s critically hailed The Substance. It opened in sixth with a fairly respectable $3.2 million.
The last time the Transformers franchise went fully animated on the big screen, it was in 1986 in The Transformers: The Movie. It was a flop but has since developed a cult following and it awesomely featured the voices of everyone from Eric Idle to Judd Nelson to Leonard Nimoy to Casey Kasem to Orson Welles. Since then, Paramount and Hasbro have earned billions from their live-action robot mayhem movies. The franchise goes back to animation in Transformers One on September 20th. From Toy Story 4 director Josh Cooley, this might not have Casey Kasem or Charles Foster Kane. There are voiceover contributions from Chris Hemsworth, Brian Tyree Henry, Scarlett Johansson, Keegan-Michael Key, Steve Buscemi, Laurence Fishburne, and Jon Hamm.
Early word-of-mouth is encouraging for the sci-fi action tale and that could help post Transformers: Rise of the Beasts. It came out last summer and ended up as the lowest grosser of the series with $157 million domestically. Expectations are not lofty for One and it could end up making less than Beasts. I’m pegging this for a mid 30s beginning.
Transformers One opening weekend prediction: $35.4 million
In what has become a tradition on the blog, it is time to revisit the cinematic season that transpired ten years ago. In 2014, that meant the warmer months were ruled by a ragtag group of relatively unknown Marvel superheroes (at least compared to your Spideys, Batmen, and Supermen, etc…).
Audiences might have been hooked on the feelings these MCU characters gave them, but they were also transfixed by apes, giant lizards, and pizza chomping turtles.
Let’s take a trip down a decade old memory lane with the top 10 domestic earners of summer ’14 as well as other noteworthy pics and significant flops.
10. How to Train Your Dragon 2
Domestic Gross: $177 million
While the DreamWorks Animation sequel couldn’t match or exceed the gross of its 2010 predecessor at $217 million, the fantasy tale won the Golden Globe for its genre and was Oscar nominated for Animated Feature. A sequel would follow five years later.
9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Domestic Gross: $191 million
With Michael Bay producing and Megan Fox starring, the transformation of this franchise from the 1990s to the 21st century was a financial if not critical success. A sequel which made less cash came two summers later.
8. 22 Jump Street
Domestic Gross: $191 million
Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill’s second go-round as hapless cops (this time graduating to going undercover at college instead of high school) outpaced the 2012 original financially. A third Street never arrived (there was a rumored crossover with the Men in Black series), but Tatum has recently spoken of his desire to get the ball rolling.
7. Godzilla
Domestic Gross: $200 million
It might be the 30th overall feature in the Godzilla franchise, but this monster mash from Gareth Edwards achieved some of the series’ best reviews and kicked off the MonsterVerse that is still wreaking havoc at multiplexes. It also assisted in washing away dirty memories of Roland Emmerich’s 1998 summertime treatment with Matthew Broderick
6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Domestic Gross: $202 million
While it made over $200 million domestic, Andrew Garfield’s return to the Spidey suit was seen as underwhelming with critics and audiences. Planned sequels didn’t materialize though Garfield and head villain Jamie Foxx would reprise their roles in 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home.
5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Domestic Gross: $208 million
The follow-up to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Matt Reeves took over directorial duties. The result was critical acclaim as Dawn became the long running franchise’s largest grosser. Two sequels (including Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes in May) have followed.
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past
Domestic Gross: $233 million
This sequel combined cast members from the 2000-06 trilogy including Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine, Ian McKellen’s Magneto, Patrick Stewart’s Professor X, and Halle Berry’s Storm with some of their younger counterparts from 2011’s X-Men: First Class like Michael Fassbender’s Magneto and James McAvoy’s Professor X (as well as Jennifer Lawrence’s Mystique). The result is the highest earning pic with X-Men in the title. With the exception of the Deadpool success that followed two years later, direct sequels Apocalypse and Dark Phoenix failed to replicate the success here.
3. Maleficent
Domestic Gross: $241 million
After the massively profitable live-action remake of their animated Alice in Wonderland four years earlier, Disney continued the trend with Maleficent. Angelina Jolie starred as the Sleeping Beauty villainess and a 2019 sequel earned less than half of the total of this domestically.
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Domestic Gross: $245 million
Shia LaBeouf exited Michael Bay’s robotic mayhem and Mark Wahlberg entered this fourth entry. A billion in receipts worldwide resulted in making this 2014’s best worldwide grosser. Sequels are still coming and the latest Transformers: Rise of the Beasts hit a lower $157 million last year.
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Domestic Gross: $233 million
This was the 10th feature in the MCU and it seemed like the first that could be a financial question mark. The heroes weren’t as familiar to audiences, but James Gunn’s tale of eccentric comic characters took by the box office by storm. Two sequels have followed in addition to Guardians appearances in other MCU sagas.
And now let’s cover some other flicks from ’14 that had crowds and critics chatting.
Neighbors
Domestic Gross: $150 million
The comedic teaming of Seth Rogen and Zac Efron caused this fraternal experience to be the season’s most fruitful original comedy. A less regarded sequel came two years later.
Lucy
Domestic Gross: $126 million
Two summers after The Avengers set records, Scarlett Johansson had a solid sci-fi action grosser with Luc Besson’s concoction.
The Fault in Our Stars
Domestic Gross: $124 million
John Green’s phenomenon of a YA romance bestseller became a blockbuster with decent reviews highlighting the chemistry of leads Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort.
Edge of Tomorrow
Domestic Gross: $100 million
Doug Liman’s sci-fi actioner with elements of Groundhog Day was not a sizable hit upon release. However, the Tom Cruise and Emily Blunt led title’s reputation has grown since with occasional rumors of another Tomorrow.
Let’s Be Cops
Domestic Gross: $82 million
This buddy cop pic was an out of nowhere late season surprise with over $100 million globally against a meager $17 million budget. Unlike nearly all other movies I’ve spoken of above, a sequel (somehow) did not happen.
Chef
Domestic Gross: $31 million
After helming two ginormous Iron Man chapters and a disappointment with Cowboys and Aliens, Jon Favreau cooked up critical cred and impressive midsize numbers with this road dramedy.
Boyhood
Domestic Gross: $25 million
Shot over a span of a decade, Richard Linklater’s unique coming-of-age drama remains the best reviewed picture of the 21st century according to Metacritic. Six Oscar nods, including a Supporting Actress victory for Patricia Arquette, were among its many plaudits.
Snowpiercer
Domestic Gross: $4 million
Bong Joon-Ho, who would make the BP winning Parasite five years later, garnered acclaim for this post-apocalyptic pic that would eventually spawn a TV series.
OK, so not all 2014 summer sagas were prosperous and here’s some that were considered commercial and/or critical disappointments.
Hercules
Domestic Gross: $72 million
Brett Ratner’s version of the Greek god wreaking havoc on his enemies cast Dwayne Johnson in the lead. The grosses were actually fairly decent, but I’m sure the studio were hoping for nine figures stateside… and does anyone even mention this movie anymore?
Jersey Boys
Domestic Gross: $47 million
The original play earned Tonys but audiences mostly tuned out Clint Eastwood’s take on the decades spanning musical drama.
Blended
Domestic Gross: $46 million
The Wedding Singer and 50 First Dates were each lucrative rom coms with Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore. The third time was not the charm with moviegoers or reviewers.
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Domestic Gross: $43 million
Family Guy creator Seth MacFarlane ruled the comedic box office in summer 2012 with Ted. This follow-up starring him and Charlize Theron didn’t hit the bullseye.
The Expendables 3
Predicted Gross: $39 million
The previous two action headliners with Stallone, Schwarzenegger, Statham, and Snipes and others did well. For inexplicable reasons, a PG-13 rating was slapped on this third one and audiences turned their nose up for what they wanted to be R-rated violence. A fourth (and also unsuccessful) pic came out last year.
Sex Tape
Predicted Gross: $38 million
Jason Segel and Cameron Diaz couldn’t cause people to cue up this raunchy comedy which played to mostly empty establishments.
Sin City: A Dame to Kill For
Domestic Gross: $13 million
The first Sin City in 2005 made nearly $30 million in its first weekend while this sequel grossed less than half that figure total. The comic book adaptation co-directed by Robert Rodriguez and Frank Miller might stand as the biggest flop of the season.
And that’s your recap, folks! Hope you enjoyed this walk down memory lane and I’ll have a post about summer 2015 up in the summer of 2025!
Keeping up with the summer 2023 traditions of dropping the The from its title (Haunted Mansion) and being a follow-up to a 2018 predecessor (Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Insidious: The Red Door, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One), Meg 2: The Trench is in theaters on August 4th. Ben Wheatley takes over directorial duties from Jon Turteltaub with Jason Statham reprising his role as a battler of giant ocean creatures. Costars include Wu Jing, Sophia Cai, Page Kennedy, Sergio Peris-Mencheta, Skyler Samuels, and Cliff Curtis.
Five summers ago, The Meg premiered in August and easily exceeded expectations. Despite so-so reviews, audiences were ready for a shark fix. It opened with $45 million and an eventual $145 million domestic haul. When factoring in bountiful international earnings, The Meg made more than half a billion.
Warner Bros is probably banking on overseas cash for profitability. I’m not sure stateside crowds are exactly chomping at the bit for this sequel. While it should do respectable biz, it may lose some of its demographic to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. I’m expecting that to have a stronger opening than this. The Trench might be lucky to take in $30 or even $25 million.
Meg 2: The Trench opening weekend prediction: $24.5 million
For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem prediction, click here:
After a subpar start, Harrison Ford’s fifth go-round as the iconic fedora clad archaeologist hopes to repeat at #1. The fifth edition of a horror franchise could disrupt that as Insidious: The Red Door swings in. We also have the critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Joy Ride and action pic Sound of Freedom from upstart Angel Studios. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
After a lackluster haul (more on that below), Dr. Jones and company might see a sophomore drop in the low 50s. While the B+ Cinemascore grade exceeds the B that crowds gave predecessor Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull, it still indicates middling enthusiasm moving forward. My high 20s take does mean a repeat performance atop the charts.
That’s because I have Insidious: The Red Door in the mid 20s. While that’s under the $29 million that The Last Key opened with in 2018, it is still a fine result for the 13-year-old franchise.
The weekend’s wild card is Sound of Freedom. Jim Caviezel’s turn as a vigilante taking on human traffickers is being championed by faith-based and conservative groups. This resulted in a terrific $14 million bounty when it started on July 4th. How it legs out is anyone’s guess and I’m going with a low double digits Friday-Sunday number. That would put it solidly in third.
As for Joy Ride, critics are being kind and the studio is hoping for a Crazy Rich Asians style sleeper hit. The hard R rating could prevent that and my sub $10 million projection puts it in fourth just ahead of animated holdovers Elemental and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
And with that, here’s how I foresee the top 6 shaking out:
1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Predicted Gross: $28 million
2. Insidious: The Red Door
Predicted Gross: $25.2 million
3. Sound of Freedom
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
4. Joy Ride
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $8 million
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
Box Office Results (June 30-July 2)
Considering Crystal Skull in 2008 made off with $100 million for its Friday to Sunday portion of a holiday weekend, the $60.3 million for Dial of Destiny is a major letdown for Disney. I wasn’t much more generous at $65.3 million. When it premiered in Cannes over a month ago, its mediocre reaction set the table for a disappointing gross. Perhaps more importantly is that it didn’t play for younger audiences whose reverence for the series isn’t matched by the 40 and up crowd.
Disney/Pixar’s Elemental, after a troubling start, continued to level off nicely in weekend #3. It was second with $12.1 million, in line with my $12.7 million prediction for a three-week $89 million tally.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was third with $12 million compared to my $13.5 million estimate. The Sony juggernaut has amassed $340 million.
Jennifer Lawrence’s No Hard Feelings was fourth with $7.8 million (I went higher at $89 million). The ten-day take is $29 million which is fairly decent for a genre that’s struggled in recent times.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts rounded out the top five with $7.3 million. I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The total is $136 million.
Finally, DreamWorks Animation’s Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken was a major flop in sixth with only $5.5 million. I was kinder at $7.8 million. With serious kiddie competition, parents opted for leftovers like Elemental and Spidey.
Blogger’s Update (06/29): I have my estimate for Ruby Gillman from to $10.8M to $7.8M, which puts it in fifth instead of fourth.
Harrison Ford hopes to retire his iconic character with boffo box office returns as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny whips into theaters. We also have DreamWorks Animation’s Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken seeking success amid serious competition. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be perused here:
Disney might not have done itself any favors when it screened Destiny last month at the Cannes Film Festival. The critical reaction was rather weak as it sits with 62% on Rotten Tomatoes. The fifth entry in the franchise’s much maligned 2008 predecessor Kingdom of the Crystal Skull managed 77%. I suspect that expectations should be tempered and I have it hitting mid 60s for what would be considered a significantly disappointing beginning.
Slots 2-4 should be quite animated with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Elemental losing around 30-35%. That could put both of them ahead of Ruby. The fact that it’s not based on known IP won’t help and neither will the level of competition. I have it barely topping $10 million for a fourth place start.
No Hard Feelings should round out the top five with a 40% range decline in its sophomore frame.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Predicted Gross: $65.3 million
2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
3. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. No Hard Feelings
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
5. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
Box Office Results (June 23-25)
Thanks to the disastrous performance of The Flash (we’ll get there shortly), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swung back into 1st place in week #4. The acclaimed animated sequel took in $19 million. I was right on target with $18.9 million and it’s up to a terrific $316 million with $400 million in its sights.
Pixar’s Elemental, after a poor premiere, was on less shaky ground in its follow-up outing. The A Cinemascore grade probably helped as it dropped a commendable 38% at $18.4 million (I went lower with $16.8 million). That’s the smallest Pixar sophomore frame downslide since Up 14 years ago. The total is $65 million in ten days.
The Flash… wow. After a shockingly low $55 million opening, the DCEU debacle plunged 72% and landed in third with only $15.1 million. I was more generous at $17.5 million. The ten-day take is $87 million and it should be out of the top five in only its third go-round. Embarrassing.
Jennifer Lawrence’s raunchy comedy No Hard Feelings debuted in fourth with $15 million, exceeding my call of $11.7 million. For its genre, that’s a pretty solid haul as comedies have struggled in recent years. It should manage to hold up decently in subsequent weekends.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts rounded out the top five with $11.7 million, rising above my $9.3 million projection. The three-week gross is $123 million.
Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City expanded nationwide and nabbed the highest per theater average on the chart. The star-studded tale made an impressive $9 million and went above my $7.6 million guesstimate. It’s at $10.2 million when factoring its limited release dollars from the previous weekend.
Finally, The Little Mermaid was seventh with $8.5 million (I said $7 million) to bring its earnings to $270 million in five weeks.
Following a weekend in which two high profile pictures opened far under what their respective studios hoped for, a pair of comedies debut wide attempting to find an audience. They are Jennifer Lawrence’s raunchy comedy No Hard Feelings and Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Feelings marks Lawrence’s first headlining role in theaters since Red Sparrow over five years ago. This isn’t a genre she’s known for and comedies in general struggle to break out these days in multiplexes. It could be lucky to top $10 million and that should put it in fourth position for a soft start.
Asteroid City performed impressively in its limited NY/LA six theater engagement. Branching out to middle America is another ballgame and my estimate puts it in sixth.
As for the #1 spot… well, it gets interesting. Before The Flash premiered, the assumption was it would have two weeks to itself atop the charts. However, the Ezra Miller led DCEU adventure opened way below expectations (more on that below). With a weak B Cinemascore grade, a drop in the mid 60s could occur. If Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse sees a small decline in the 30% range, Spidey may return to the top spot over his superhero competitor. I’m guessing that will be the case.
The Flash wasn’t the only bomb as Pixar’s Elemental, for all intents and purposes, had the weakest wide release in the studio’s near 30 year history. It had an A Cinemascore grade so it may only dip in the mid to high 40s for third place.
I have Transformers: Rise of the Beasts falling around 55-60% in its third frame for fifth place with The Little Mermaid right behind Asteroid City in seventh.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
2. The Flash
Predicted Gross: $17.5 million
3. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million
4. No Hard Feelings
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
5. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
6. Asteroid City
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
7. The Little Mermaid
Predicted Gross: $7 million
Box Office Results (June 16-18)
You can read a whole slew of think pieces as to why The Flash failed so badly in its debut. I had it making $83.2 million. It… um… didn’t. The DCEU title earned an unthinkable $55 million marking a sizable disappointment for Warner Bros. Here’s a figure I can’t stop thinking about. Twelve summers ago, notorious dud Green Lantern rolled out with $53 million. Adjusted for inflation, that’s better than The Flash. Ouch.
If it weren’t for the paragraph above, there would likely be more think pieces about Elemental not connecting with audiences. The Pixar animated feature was second with just $29.6 million. I was on target with a $30.6 million prediction. On the heels of Lightyear flopping last summer, this is two under performers in a row for the Disney property.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was third with $27 million, in range with my $27.6 million call. The three-week tally is $279 million and, per above, I see it leaping to first yet again.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts tumbled 66% in weekend #2 with $20.6 million (I said $21.8 million). The ten-day take is $101 million.
The Little Mermaid rounded out the top five with $11 million, falling below my $13.8 million forecast. The Disney live-action remake has made $253 million thus far in its four weeks.
Finally, horror spoof The Blackening couldn’t translate positive reviews to brisk business. It was sixth with $6 million compared to my $7.7 million projection.
A trio of newcomers hits multiplexes this weekend with the much-publicized DCEU adventure The Flash, Pixar’s Elemental, and horror spoof The Blackening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
There’s little question that The Flash will bolt to #1. The question is with how much. While I don’t see it reaching nine figures, I do believe $80-90 million is within reach. It is worth noting that fresh tracking shows it could fall short of that number so keep an eye on my blog this week to see if I maintain my rosy outlook.
I don’t have a flowery vision for how Elemental will perform. After Pixar experienced a high-profile flop last summer with Lightyear, their latest could find itself in a battle with fellow animated pic Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (in its third frame) for #2. I’ll give Elemental the slight benefit of the doubt, but not by much.
Spider-Verse should only drop a spot because I believe it’ll see around a 50% fall. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts significantly exceeded my projection (more on that below). Yet it could dip in the mid 60s and that would mean a slide from 1st to 4th.
The Little Mermaid should round out the top five with a 40% drop and that brings us to The Blackening. The scary parody is reported to release in only about 1800 venues and that could limit the potential. I’ll say it doesn’t hit $10 million and is in sixth.
And with that, here’s how I envision that top 6:
1. The Flash
Predicted Gross: $83.2 million
2. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $27.6 million
4. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
5. The Little Mermaid
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
6. The Blackening
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
Box Office Results (June 9-11)
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts couldn’t match the $100M+ earnings of early franchise entries. However, it did blast past my prediction with $61 million compared to my measly $42.2 million call. That’s on the top end of its anticipated range and, like other Transformers pics, it should perform well overseas. There might just be a little juice left in the series.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse had a sturdy hold of 54% in its sophomore weekend with $55.5 million, a bit under my $58.4 million forecast. The acclaimed sequel has amassed $225 million in ten days.
The Little Mermaid was third with $23.1 million (on target with my $22.5 million take) for $229 million in three weeks.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was fourth with $7.2 million (I said $6.6 million) for an overall haul of $335 million.
Finally, The Boogeyman held up stronger in weekend #2 that I assumed with $7.1 million. I went lower at $5.8 million. The two-week tally is a so-so $24 million.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts debuts Friday and it marks the seventh entry in the franchise that began in 2007. This has never been a series known for critical acclaim, but reviews have been on the uptick as of late.
The Rotten Tomatoes score for Beasts is 57%. That’s actually tied for second best of the bunch as the first Transformers has the same rating. #1 by far is the 91% achieved by immediate predecessor Bumblebee from 2018. The other four were at 35% or under (2017’s The Last Knight is lowest at 16%).
That said, certain technical aspects were noticed by the Academy for awhile. Part 1 was nominated for Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects (note that these sound races have since been combined). 2009’s follow-up Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen was up for Sound Mixing. 2011’s third adventure Transformers: Dark of the Moon landed the same three mentions as the first. There are no victories among the seven nominations.
However, the next three pics (2014’s Age of Extinction, The Last Knight, Bumblebee) were ignored by voters. And if Bumblebee couldn’t manage a Sound or VE spot, it’s tough to see Beasts rising to the challenge. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts will attempt to topple Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, but that could be a tall order. Beasts is the sole wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The seventh entry in the franchise based on the Hasbro toy line will not have the lowest start of the bunch. That belongs and will continue to belong to Bumblebee which started with $21 million over the holidays in 2018. It may, however, have the second smallest if it fails to exceed the $44 million three-day premiere that Transformers: The Last Knight had in the summer of 2017. I am projecting it will fall under that mark.
That should leave Across the Spider-Verse in first position after an amazing rollout this past weekend (more on that below). While I think the sophomore frame dip will be more than 50%, I believe a high 50s gross will comfortably leave it atop the charts.
Holdovers will fill slots 3-5. The Little Mermaid, after an expectedly hefty second weekend fall, should level off and get above $20 million in weekend 3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 may remain fourth since it shouldn’t see a percentage drop as large as The Boogeyman‘s in its second outing.
And with that, here’s how I envision the top five:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $58.4 million
2. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Predicted Gross: $42.2 million
3. The Little Mermaid
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
5. The Boogeyman
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
Box Office Results (June 2-4)
Swinging the #2 best premiere of 2023 behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie was Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. That’s also the seventh highest animated opening ever. It built upon the goodwill from its 2018 Oscar-winning predecessor and made off with $120.6 million. That’s well beyond my projection of $96.4 million. Look for it to play well throughout the season (and it’s certainly the frontrunner to win Best Animated Feature next year).
The Little Mermaid slipped to second with $41.3 million in its sophomore frame, on track with my $40.5 million take. The ten-day gross for the live-action Disney remake is $186 million. That’s pretty decent, but its overseas earnings are underwhelming.
PG-13 horror flick The Boogeyman, based on a Stephen King short story, couldn’t pick up buzz as Spidey sucked up all the oxygen. It made $12.3 million for third, falling below my $17.7 million prediction.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was fourth with $10.6 million (I said $9.6 million) as the MCU threequel is up to $323 million after five weeks.
Fast X rounded out the top five with $9.5 million compared to my $10.1 million forecast. It’s doing better internationally, but the three-week $128 million domestic haul is unimpressive.
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