Tag: Transformers: Age of Extinction

Box Office Predictions: June 27-29

There’s just one newcomer entering the multiplex this weekend – but it’s a big one. Transformers: Age of Extinction is expected by many (including this blogger) to post the heftiest opening weekend of 2014 so far. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/22/transformers-age-of-extinction-box-office-prediction/

My estimate for Extinction is actually a big lower than that of others so we’ll see how I do come Monday of next week. As for holdovers, I’m expecting the current #1 Think Like a Man Too to drop over 50% in its second weekend while 22 Jump Street might not quite lose half its audience in weekend 3. That could definitely mean 22 Jump Street remains second while Man Too drops to third.

DreamWorks animated financial letdown How to Train Your Dragon 2 should be 4th in its third weekend while a battle for fifth could ensue between the second weekend of Jersey Boys and fifth weekend of Maleficent.

And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top six:

1. Transformers: Age of Extinction

Predicted Gross: $98.6 million

2. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (representing a drop of 48%)

3. Think Like a Man Too

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)

4. How to Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $13 million (representing a drop of 47%)

5. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)

6. Jersey Boys

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)

Box Office Results (June 20-22)

As predicted, Kevin Hart’s Think Like a Man Too topped the box office charts out of the gate, but it didn’t match my expectation. It took in $29.4 million, below my $38.2M estimate. The sequel couldn’t match the $33 million opening of its predecessor which was a bit of a surprise. Still, with a meager reported budget of $24 million, Man Too is quite a success.

22 Jump Street dipped to second with $27.4 million, right in line with my $27.3M projection. The Jonah Hill/Channing Tatum comedy sequel has amassed an impressive $109 million in just ten days.

How to Train Your Dragon 2 continued to underperform with $24.7 million in weekend #2, well below my $32 million estimate. The animated flick has not met expectations with $94 million so far. It will probably not match the performance of its predecessor’s $217 million. Most prognosticators figured it would easily surpass that number.

Clint Eastwood’s Jersey Boys had a muted debut at fourth with $13.3 million – below my generous $18.9M prediction. While the pic received mostly decent reviews, adult audiences treated the Four Seasons biopic with ambivalence. Disney’s Maleficent held up well in its fourth weekend with $12.9 million, outpacing my $10.4M prediction. The Angelina Jolie flick has earned $185 million so far and should blast past $200M shortly.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Transformers: Age of Extinction Box Office Prediction

This Friday, Transformers: Age of Extinction will attempt to score the biggest opening weekend of 2014 and its chances are pretty darn solid. That title is currently held by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which scored $95 million in its debut.

Director Michael Bay is back behind the camera just as he was for the first three installments. However, have an entirely new cast that includes Mark Wahlberg, Stanley Tucci, and Kelsey Grammer. The trilogy’s star Shia LaBeouf is nowhere to be seen… and he’s probably off doing something really weird somewhere.

Comparing the Age of Extinction‘s predicted gross to the other franchise entrees is a tricky proposition. That’s because the other films opened on Tuesdays or Wednesdays with some on Fourth of July holiday weekends. The third flick Dark of the Moon took in a whopping $180 million over a six-day period. The second Revenge of the Fallen grossed $200.1 million over five days while the original made $155.4 million over five days in 2007.

The premiere of Extinction is unlikely to reach those levels since it will only be for its traditional weekend haul (plus Thursday night grosses). It’s also a legitimate question as to whether the franchise has lost a bit of steam. As I see it, the big question is if this clears $100 million out of the gate. I’m not totally confident that it will. The range of how this opens could be $120 million on the high end. Anything below $90 million would be considered low, especially considering the openings of the first three pictures.

Ultimately, I believe the dinobots and decepticons and autobots will claim the title of #1 opening so far in 2014, but not by much.

Transformers: Age of Extinction opening weekend prediction: $98.6 million