Marianne Jean-Baptiste was up for Supporting Actress 28 years ago in Mike Leigh’s Secrets & Lies, which received five total nominations including Best Picture, Director, Actress (Brenda Blethyn) and Original Screenplay. Leigh and Jean-Baptiste have collaborated again for Hard Truths which was unveiled at the Toronto Film Festival before its December 6th stateside bow. Costars include Michele Austin, David Webber, and Tuwaine Barrett. It could certainly put Jean-Baptiste in the mix again and this time for lead Actress.
The Metacritic score for the drama is 86 while some reviews say it’s not top-tier Leigh. The British filmmaker is a five-time hopeful for Original Screenplay (he’s never won). In addition to his Lies mention, the other nominated screenplays are Topsy-Turvy, Vera Drake, Happy-Go-Lucky, and Another Year. He could still make the Academy’s cut for Truths, but it’s no guarantee given the slightly more mixed reaction.
Based on buzz alone, Jean-Baptiste would be a slam dunk for Best Actress inclusion. Yet there’s the competition to consider. That includes a growing list that includes Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and, yes, Amy Adams (Nightbitch). I also question whether distributor Bleecker Street is equipped to run an effective campaign. That said, she is certainly in the top 10 of competitors and likely close to making the quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
John Crowley’s Brooklyn nabbed three Oscar nods at the 88th Academy Awards for Picture, Actress (Saoirse Ronan), and Adapted Screenplay. His 2019 follow-up The Goldfinch was expected to be an across-the-board contender but underwhelmed with critics and audiences. So where do we stand with his latest We Live in Time?
The rom dramedy stars Andrew Garfield (a previous nominee for Hacksaw Ridge) and Florence Pugh (who was up for Little Women). It has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to an October 11th stateside output. Initial word-of-mouth puts it somewhere in between Crowley’s previous projects.
Reviews are complimentary of the two leads while also saying it doesn’t bring much new to the genre. The RT score is 77%. Prior to its screening, Time had gotten most of its attention from an odd looking carousel horse from a publicity still. I invite you to Google it if you have no clue what I speak of. As for the picture, I doubt it enters the Academy’s conversation as distributor A24 has larger competitors in the horserace. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Last Showgirl has hit the Toronto Film Festival with an iconic Canadian actress in the limelight. From director Gia Coppola (granddaughter of Francis, niece of Sofia), Baywatch star Pamela Anderson headlines as an aging Vegas performer. The supporting cast includes Jamie Lee Curtis, Dave Bautista, Brenda Song, Billie Lourd, and Kiernan Shipka.
Early word-of-mouth indicates Anderson nails her leading role. It’s safe to say she’s come a long way since Barb Wire nearly 30 years ago. Showgirl has yet to find a stateside buyer so there’s no guarantee that it’s out by the end of 2024. Assuming it does make the domestic cut this year, Anderson’s viability in Best Actress could depend on who picks up distribution. A spirited campaign could put her in the mix. Curtis is also being called a scene stealer. However, her win only two ceremonies back for Everything Everywhere All at Once might hinder her exposure.
Reviews for the picture itself are more mixed. Anderson is probably on the outside looking in, but let’s see how this plays out before passing final judgment. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Friend played Telluride and is about to hit Toronto and the dramedy has found some allies already. Based on the novel by Sigrid Nunez, the team known as Siegel & McGehee direct. They are known for indie pics such as The Deep End, What Maisie Knew, and Montana Story. Naomi Watts is a writer caring for her late mentor’s dog. Supporting work comes from Bill Murray (as said mentor), Sarah Pidgeon, Constance Wu, Ann Dowd, Owen Teague, and Carla Gugino. There’s also what’s said to be a terrific performance by Great Dane Bing as Apollo.
Several critics, while saying The Friend is formulaic, also say it often rises above similar doggie tales. Early buzz indicates it earns the tears of audience members. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% with Metacritic at 70.
Still seeking domestic distribution, it remains to be seen whether this makes the 2024 cut. If so, Watts is getting plenty of applause. She’s a two-time nominee for 2003’s 21 Grams and 2012’s The Impossible. Becoming a contender isn’t an impossibility, but it is a stretch. There’s no Best Canine category so Bing doesn’t need his tux pressed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The wildly unpredictable career of David Gordon Green stays wildly unpredictable with Nutcrackers, a family dramedy that opened the Toronto Film Festival yesterday. Mr. Green first captured the admiration of critics with the 2000 indie George Washington. He eventually moved onto stoner comedies like Pineapple Express and Your Highness and then some well-regarded grounded dramas like Joe and Stronger. As of late, he’s made sequels to horror classics in the newest Halloween trilogy and The Exorcist: Believer.
His latest is another genre u-turn with Ben Stiller as a career man who travels to Ohio to care for his four orphaned nephews. It marks Stiller’s first headlining role since The Meyerowitz Stories in 2017. Linda Cardellini, Tim Heidecker, and Edi Patterson costar.
Last year, TIFF’s premiere picture The Boy and the Heron started an Oscar journey that culminated in a Best Animated Feature victory. Obviously Nutcrackers won’t be eligible for that race. However, its chances of making any others are about as realistic. The Metacritic score is a ho-hum 55 at press time. That’s not going to lead to awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Joshua Oppenheimer is best known for his Oscar nominated and acclaimed documentaries The Act of Killing and The Look of Silence, but he’s in fictional territory with The End. The post-apocalyptic musical (you read it right) premiered at Telluride and is en route to Toronto. Focused on a rich family in their underground bunker, the cast includes Tilda Swinton, George MacKay, Moses Ingram (said to be a scene stealer), and Michael Shannon.
Reviews out of Colorado are varied with some saying it doesn’t quite hit its satirical aims. Even if it releases stateside by the end of the year, I doubt this will be on the Academy’s radar. For Swinton, she’s got a Supporting Actress chance elsewhere in The Room Next Door. Oppenheimer’s non-doc debut? Don’t expect it to be, well, Oppenheimer. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
You can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but you can alter your Oscar Predictions and such is the case with Nightbitch. For many weeks, I’ve had Amy Adams perched atop my Best Actress list. The six-time nominee has to get the gold sometime right? After today’s first look, I don’t think this is the vehicle. Perhaps the Toronto Film Festival (where this screens in days) will prove me wrong.
Speaking of festivals, you might have heard that Telluride just concluded as Venice is at its midpoint. As both events tend to do, the awards landscape has been altered due to their premieres. Some pics and performers have risen while others have fallen.
The biggest winner at the time of this publication seems to be Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice. The three hour plus Holocaust survivor drama vaults 20 spots from #23 to #3 in my Best Picture rankings with Corbet in for his direction and Adrien Brody returning to the Actor derby. Mr. Brody knocks out Sebastian Stan in A Different Man. Speaking of Stan, he will also be vying for attention as Donald Trump in The Apprentice. It was confirmed this week that it will be released in October.
Another benefactor, this one from Telluride, is Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night. The solid reaction in Colorado puts it (barely) in my BP hopefuls along with Original Screenplay and Film Editing recognition.
The inclusion of these two newbies knocks out two others that didn’t fare quite as well in their unveilings – Queer and The Piano Lesson. They are both still listed in Other Possibilities but are no longer picks to make the big dance.
Three of the four acting races have new #1s. While Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) is still first in Actor (with Ralph Fiennes from Conclave and Adrien Brody hot on his heels), the aforementioned Adams plummets in Actress. In her place? Mikey Madison from Anora though Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Karla Sofia Gascón are close behind. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) makes her first appearance in the quintet. Please note that Folie will screen in Venice tomorrow so we’ll know more then (keep an eye on the blog for its individual predictions post).
In Supporting Actress, my previous #1 Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) slides three positions with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) moving up. Her costar Selena Gomez is now in my five as well and that takes out Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door. I will say deciding between Gomez and Swinton for the 5 spot was basically a coin flip.
The news for Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) and his chances are worse. He goes from 1st to 9th with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) back at one. Guy Pearce in The Brutalist, who would be a first-time nominee, rockets from 15th to 2nd in the race and Stanley Tucci (Conclave) reenters over his costar John Lithgow.
You can read all the movement – and there is plenty of movement indeed – below and my next update will likely come Sunday as more Venice titles screen and Toronto begins!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 23) (+20)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+2)
12. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (+8)
13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Queer (PR: 7) (-7)
15. The Room Next Door (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Gladiator II (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (-2)
18. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-9)
19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+3)
20. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-6)
21. Wicked (PR: 21) (E)
22. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
23. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Maria (PR: 18) (-6)
25. A Different Man (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Hard Truths
The End
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-6)
14. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (-6)
8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-2)
13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 11) (+8)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-3)
9. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Paul Mescal. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-7)
14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Valeria Golino, Maria
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 15) (+13)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-8)
10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
11. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 9) (-5)
15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 3) (-12)
Dropped Out:
Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 14) (+9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Dídi (PR: 10) (E)
11. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Substance (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Challengers (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The End
Maria
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Queer (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (E)
13. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Universal Language (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Evil Does Not Exist
Simon of the Mountain
Uprising
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Savages (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7 (E)
8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Most Precious of Cargoes
Transformers One
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+1)
4. No Other Land (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Union
Gaucho Gaucho
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Anora (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Conclave
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Challengers (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Queer
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Sasquatch Sunset
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Challengers (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Here
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Wicked
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Conclave (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+2)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (E)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place: Day One
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Twisters (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)
And that works out to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz
8 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
The Brutalist
6 Nominations
Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Conclave
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Maria, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
No Other Land has been playing the festival circuit since Berlin early this year. It played Telluride over the weekend and makes its way to Toronto later this week. Focused on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the documentary features a quartet of directors – Basel Adra, Hamdan Billal, Yuval Abraham, and Rachel Szor.
Most early reviews are raves and it has a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score thus far. It picked up two prizes in Berlin. Obviously this is touchy subject matter and it’s an open question as to whether the Academy’s doc branch will put it in the mix. They haven’t shied away from controversial issues previously. My hunch is that if No Other Land makes the shortlist of 15 hopefuls in Best Documentary Feature, it will probably end up in the nominated five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Jason Reitman had a one-two punch of consecutive Best Picture nominees with Juno and Up in the Air in 2007 and 2009. Some follow-ups generated solid reviews (Young Adult, Tully) while others (Labor Day, The Front Runner) drew more mixed reactions. None have received significant awards buzz in the past decade and a half. Will that change with Saturday Night?
The Sony Pictures dramedy is slated for release on October 11th which is the 49th anniversary of the iconic sketch show it celebrates. This recounts the chaotic moments leading up to the premiere of Saturday Night Live. Gabriel LaBelle (who essentially played young Steven Spielberg in 2022’s The Fabelmans) is 30-year-old Lorne Michaels. The extensive supporting cast (some playing 1975 legends with others as future legends) includes Cooper Hoffman, Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith, Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien, Emily Fairn, Matt Wood, Lamorne Morris, Kim Matula, Finn Wolfhard, Nicholas Braun (as Andy Kaufman and Jim Henson), Andrew Barth Feldman, Willem Dafoe, Matthew Rhys, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Batiste.
Having just played Telluride and hitting Toronto shortly, early word-of-mouth is primarily on the fresh side. There are some high profile reviews of the thumbs down variety. I would say Saturday Night stands a shot at a Best Picture nomination, but it is a coin flip at the moment as we await how competitors pan out. Down ballot categories like Costume Design and (especially) Film Editing could occur especially if it sneaks into BP.
As for the cast, LaBelle is getting quality ink. Yet some of the strongest notices are going to Sennott as writer Rosie Schuster and Smith as Chevy Chase. I’m skeptical any of the performers break into their respective categories though the SAG Awards could certainly nominate the cast in their Ensemble race. Speaking of other shows, the Golden Globes could put it up for Musical/Comedy assuming Sony campaigns for it there and LaBelle could make the Actor (Musical/Comedy) quintet.
At the Academy Awards, there is almost always a picture or two that is up solely for its screenplay. This is a distinct possibility with Saturday Night and its original screenplay from Reitman and Gil Kenan. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Piano Lesson is the third adaptation of an August Wilson play in the past decade seeking Oscar glory. This is a Washington family affair with siblings Malcolm directing and John David headlining. Their father Denzel is a producer. Piano has played at Telluride (with Toronto next) before its limited November 8th theatrical release and November 22nd Netflix premiere. Cast members include Samuel L. Jackson, Ray Fisher, Michael Potts, Erykah Badu, Corey Hawkins, and Danielle Deadwyler.
Early reviews are decent with some gripes about its stagey nature. Before we get to its awards chances, let’s take a look at how fellow Wilson adaptations Fences in 2016 and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in 2020 performed. Fences, directed by Denzel, landed four nominations: Picture, Denzel in Actor, Viola Davis in Supporting Actress for which she won, and Adapted Screenplay. Ma Rainey managed five mentions for Actor (Chadwick Boseman), Actress (Viola Davis), Costume Design (where it took gold), Makeup & Hairstyling (another victory), and Production Design.
With that track record, Piano has rightfully been viewed as a serious contender in numerous races. This weekend’s buzz solidifies some of that chatter while muddying other possibilities. Danielle Deadwyler appears to be the cast’s standout. It is not yet known if Netflix will campaign for her in lead or supporting though the latter seems more likely. If they do, a nod seems close to assured and that would come two years after she was snubbed in Actress for Till.
For weeks, I’ve had Samuel L. Jackson listed in 1st place in Supporting Actor. Despite a career with a lengthy list of highlights, his sole nom came 30 years ago for Pulp Fiction. Now I’m not even sure he makes the cut as his costar Ray Fisher is getting equally strong ink. Jackson could make the final quintet. However, I suspect I’ll at least drop him from the top slot. John David Washington faces longer odds in lead Actor, but let’s see how crowded that competition becomes.
Best Picture is a question mark. I think it could make it in though it would be at the bottom of the 10 hopefuls and may miss altogether. Down the line techs like Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Production Design (the ones Rainey received) could happen with Adapted Screenplay in the mix. One must wonder if Netflix decides to push Emilia Pérez as their #1 option and the answer is probably yes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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