StudioCanal is counting on audiences making time for We Live in Time when it expands nationwide on October 18th. The romantic drama from Brooklyn director John Crowley stars Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh with a supporting cast including Adam James, Marama Corlett, and Aoime Hinds.
Critics were mostly on its side after its Toronto Film Festival premiere last month. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 79% with 61 on Metacritic. If this was based on source material like a bestselling novel, I might be more optimistic with Time. Awards buzz would also help and that doesn’t appear to be the case.
Unless a sizable female crowd turns up, mid single digits is the likely number.
We Live in Time opening weekend prediction: $4.3 million
For my Venom: The Last Dance prediction, click here:
Focus Features hopes that audiences will be happy to attend Piece by Piece when it assembles in theaters October 11th. This is quite the interesting mashup of genres. From documentarian Morgan Neville, it is a biopic of music producer Pharrell Williams of the Neptunes told through Lego animation. Besides the central character, his musician friends Gwen Stefani, Kendrick Lamar, Timbaland, Justin Timberlake, Busta Rhymes, Jay-Z, Daft Punk, and Snoop Dogg lend their voices to the project.
After its premiere at Telluride, Piece generated mostly complimentary reaction. The RT score is 91% with Metacritic at 64. I’m not sure the reviews are strong enough that this will compete for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.
With no significant buzz awards wise or elsewhere, I wonder who turns up for this. This isn’t really geared towards kids (and they could still be preoccupied with The Wild Robot). Adults aren’t likely clamoring for a Lego themed doc about the producer of “Hollaback Girl” and “Drop It Like It’s Hot”.
If this managed higher single digits for starters, Focus should consider it a victory. Slated for 1800 screens, I don’t think it gets there.
Piece by Piece opening weekend prediction: $5.4 million
Kiyoshi Kurosawa (no relation to Akira) premiered his latest feature Cloud at the Venice Film Festival and he’s had good luck there before. His 2020 effort Wife of a Spy took the Silver Lion (equivalent to Best Director). This psychological thriller is garnering mostly decent reviews and Japan has selected it as their pick for International Feature Film.
The nation has seen a handful of their selections nominated for the prize in the 21st century. That includes two winners (2008’s Departures, 2021’s Drive My Car) in addition to 2003’s The Twilight Samurai, 2018’s Shoplifters, and Perfect Days from last year.
With 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 70 Metacritic score, I’m not confident the acclaim is strong enough for Japan to make the race this time. If Cloud manages to make the shortlist, however, it could sneak in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
When I did my forecast for the 96th Academy Awards around the same late September time frame last year, it yielded nine of the ten eventual Best Picture nominees. The only miss was not having The Zone of Interest in the hopefuls and I had it ranked 11th in other possibilities. It is also worth noting that eventual winner Oppenheimer was ranked #1.
For Best Director, it was four of five with Christopher Nolan correctly atop my chart. Four of five was also the score for Best Actress and Actor and I had victors Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) in first. For the supporting races, both were 3 out of five. In Supporting Actress, Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) was listed in second while Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) was projected highest in Supporting Actor. In the Screenplay derbies, it was 3 of 5 in each with Adapted recipient American Fiction and Original top finisher Anatomy of a Fall both listed 4th of 5.
That history lesson illustrates that the script for the previous Oscars had largely been written several months before nominations were unveiled. Will the 97th ceremony follow a similar pattern?
It sure doesn’t seem like it. I maintain that there’s no clear frontrunner for BP while Oppenheimer was definitely in that position a year ago. Solid to fair cases could be made for Blitz, The Brutalist, Anora, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, or Dune: Part Two to take gold. There’s also no slam dunks thus far in the acting competitions whereas Downey Jr. was kind of a no-brainer at this juncture and Murphy, Stone, and Randolph were in the 1 or 2 positions in their races.
That makes it all the more intriguing as the 2024 season plays out. The big news this week was that TIFF People’s Choice Winner The Life of Chuck will not open until summer 2025. Therefore you’ll see it drop from contention everywhere I had it listed as a possibility below. Last week, I only had Chuck actually being nominated in Adapted Screenplay. It is replaced by Dune.
I considered elevating the unseen Blitz back to first position in BP, but am giving it to The Brutalist still by a hair. It was announced this week that the latter will release on December 20th via A24. There is one change in BP as I’m putting in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain for its initial top 10 appearance at the expense of The Room Next Door.
This week I’m also shutting the door on Tilda Swinton in Best Actress for The Room Next Door with Nightbitch‘s Amy Adams returning to the quintet. I went back and forth about whether to include Adams or Babygirl‘s Nicole Kidman.
You can all view all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (E)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+2)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)
14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (E)
7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)
9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)
9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Gladiator II
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+3)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (E)
5. Blitz (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)
8. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)
9. September 5 (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Queer (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Vermiglio (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kneecap (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All We Imagine as Light
Pedro Páramo
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Savages (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daughters (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Skywalkers: A Love Story
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Anora (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Conclave
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Wicked (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Maria (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)
8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Substance (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maria (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
The Room Next Door
The Life of Chuck
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (E)
8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
“We’re Back” from Moana 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Civil War
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Better Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)
And that adds up to these numbers generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Blitz
9 Nominations
The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez
6 Nominations
Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Real Pain, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nickel Boys, Wicked, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Vermiglio premiered in its native country at the Venice Film Festival before making it to North America at Toronto’s fest. Written and directed by Maura Delpero, the drama stars Guiseppe De Domenico, Tommaso Ragno, Martina Scrinzi, and Roberta Rovelli.
The period piece has been announced at Italy’s hopeful for International Feature Film as they hope it’s their fifth pic to make the final five in the 21st century. The only winner in that time frame is 2013’s The Great Beauty while 2005’s The Beast in the Heart, 2021’s The Hand of God, and 2023’s lo capitano also vied for the prize.
With two nods in the three years, Vermiglio‘s chances are decent but far from assured. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% with 77 on Metacritic. Right now it seems like there will be plenty of pics fighting for the fourth and fifth spots in IFF behind Emilia Pérez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, and I’m Still Here (though I should note this branch can be unpredictable). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The nation of India has seen only one of their features (2001’s Lagaan) nominated for Best International Feature Film in the 21st century. Prior to that, you have to go back to 1988 and Salaam Bombay! Some prognosticators (including this one) thought they had a great shot at inclusion this year via All We Imagine as Light. Payal Kapadia’s acclaimed drama has a 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, 93 on Metacritic, and took the Grand Prix (essentially first runner-up) at the Cannes Film Festival behind Anora. There was some suspicion, however, that India might not go with it as their pick due to controversial subject matter.
That was proven correct today as the selection body went with Laapataa Ladies. From Kiran Rao, the dramedy originally was seen at the 2023 Toronto Film Festival. It came out in April on Netflix. The cast includes Nitanshi Goel, Pratibha Ranta, Sparsh Shrivastava, Chhaya Kadam, and Ravi Kishan.
Like Light, the Ladies Tomato meter is also perfect. While certainly positive, the reviews are not near as effusive. Last year, France was seen as dropping the ball by choosing The Taste of Things instead of Anatomy of a Fall. If India’s pick ends up making the shortlist, I’ll be singing a different tune. This does potentially appear to be their unforced error for the 97th Academy Awards. It is reminiscent of the 95th ceremony when India inexplicably decided against RRR and it probably would have made the nominated quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have all concluded and the Oscar landscape is looking a bit clearer for the 97th edition of the ceremony. Per usual with the festivals, there are films that rise and those that fall. No film rose more than Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice, but Toronto gave us a shocker in the form of Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck. The sci-fi flick based on a Stephen King novella took People’s Choice at the Canadian event. 15 of the last 16 victors of that prize have received a Best Picture nomination including the past 12 in a row. We still don’t know which distributor will buy Chuck and it’s not confirmed to be out this year. For that matter, we also don’t know for a fact that A24’s The Brutalist will make the ’24 calendar. For now I’m assuming both will. That means I’m elevating Chuck from unranked to #11 in my BP possibilities on the outside just looking in.
There was a significant announcement that Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore will be both be campaigned in lead actress for The Room Next Door. That means Swinton enters my quintet in that category with Amy Adams (Nightbitch) dropping. With Swinton leaving supporting, Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) resurfaces there. It has also been confirmed that Saoirse Ronan will vie for Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress in Blitz. I continue to list her a double nominee.
We have a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) in with Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) falling out of the projected five.
For the last few months, I’ve included 25 BP contenders and 15 for Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions. As I typically do around this time of year, I will condense this to 15 BPs and 10 in the others. Got all that? Good!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-1)
10. TheRoom Next Door (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
12. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)
13. September 5 (PR: 16) (+3)
14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)
15. A Real Pain (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Queer
Nosferatu
The Apprentice
All We Imagine as Light
Joker: Folie à Deux
The Piano Lesson
Wicked
Juror No. 2
His Three Daughters
A Different Man
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)
8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Jason Reitman, Saturday Night
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Luca Guadagnino, Queer
Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door
Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters
June Squibb, Thelma
Zendaya, Challengers
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness
Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to lead actress
Lesley Manville, Queer
Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Drew Starkey, Queer
Harris Dickinson, Blitz
Mark Eidelstein, Anora
Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson
John Lithgow, Conclave
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (+1)
5. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Hard Truths (PR: 10) (+1)
10. September 5 (PR: 13) (+3)
Dropped Out:
His Three Daughters
Dídi
Kinds of Kindness
A Different Man
Juror No. 2
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
I’m Still Here
Gladiator II
Nightbitch
Inside Out 2
Nosferatu
The Wild Robot
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)
8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pedro Páramo (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Simon of the Mountain
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Daughters (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Union (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Anora (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+3)
4. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Conclave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Substance (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Queer
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
“Why Am I Here” from Shirley
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maria (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Here (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
8 Nominations
Blitz
6 Nominations
Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Conclave, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Maria, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Joker: Folie à Deux, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Life of Chuck, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, Will & Harper
Telling the true life tale of a mid 80s scandal involving the game show Press Your Luck, Paul Walter Hauser stars in The Luckiest Man Alive. From director Samir Oliveros, it premiered at the Toronto Film Festival. Costars include Walton Goggins, David Strathairn, Maisie Williams, Haley Bennett, Shamier Anderson, and Johnny Knoxville.
Hauser first garnered acclaim as the title character in Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell and has since won an Emmy for the miniseries Black Bird. He is said to be the highlight of this project which is still awaiting stateside distribution (a 2024 release in up in the air). The film itself is at 60% on Rotten Tomatoes. If a heavy hitter picks up Luck, perhaps a Best Actor campaign for Hauser is possible. There is an equal and perhaps better chance it never enters the awards convo. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ron Howard is apparently a little out of his comfort zone with Eden, a survival thriller that premiered in Toronto. Said to be considerably darker and at times campier than anything from the filmmaker previously, the period piece screened to mixed results in Canada. Ana de Armas, Vanessa Kirby, Sydney Sweeney, Jude Law, Daniel Brühl, Felix Kammerer, Toby Wallace, and Richard Roxburgh are among the ensemble.
With 71% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 59 Metacritic score, reaction is all over the map. The release strategy is still undetermined. Eden might not make the 2024 calendar. Regardless of whether this is eligible for the 97th or 98th Academy Awards, this doesn’t really seem like an awards contender. Ms. de Armas (a nominee two years back for Blonde) is getting strong notices, but I wouldn’t count on her being a factor. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
DreamWorks Animation hopes families turn up in droves for The Wild Robot when it debuts September 27th. The sci-fi pic is based on a book series by Peter Brown and directed by How to Train Your Dragon and The Croods maker Chris Sanders. Voiceover work comes courtesy of Lupita Nyong’o, Pedro Pascal, Kit Connor, Bill Nighy, Stephanie Hsu, Mark Hamill, Catherine O’Hara, Matt Berry, and Ving Rhames.
Robot was unveiled days ago at the Toronto Film Festival to satisfying results. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% and it could be a frontrunner for Best Animated Feature at the 97th Academy Awards. DreamWorks is putting this out while Transformers One is only in its sophomore outing. That could slightly limit the opening weekend crowd, but Robot will likely leg out impressively over the next several frames.
I still wouldn’t be surprised if this slightly exceeds tracking and that should mean low to mid 30s.
The Wild Robot opening weekend prediction: $33.8 million
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