Tag: Toronto Film Festival

Oscar Predictions: Roofman

Before it drops in theaters on October 10th, Roofman has played the Toronto Film Festival. While reactions aren’t through the first portion of its title, they’re overwhelmingly positive. Based on the true story of a military man turned thief, Channing Tatum headlines the dramedy with Kirsten Dunst as his love interest. Costars include Ben Mendelsohn, Peter Dinklage, Uzo Abuda, Juno Temple, Emory Cohen, Melonie Diaz, and LaKeith Stanfield.

While this seems like an unconventional choice for Blue Valentine and The Place Beyond the Pines director Derek Cianfrance, critics are mostly thumbing it up. Rotten Tomatoes is at 90% with 74 on Metacritic. Some reviews are saying this is a career best performance from Tatum and complimenting the chemistry with Dunst. They could both be long shots for Academy attention. If Paramount slots this in Musical/Comedy instead of Drama (sounds like both are feasible) and campaigns Dunst in Best Actress as opposed to supporting at the Golden Globes, the odds could be improved for that ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

With Daniel Craig anchoring for the third time as eccentric sleuth Benoit Blanc, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery continues the mystery franchise. It premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with a limited theatrical engagement slated for November 26th and Netflix release on December 12th. Rian Johnson returns as writer/director with the considerable supporting cast including Josh O’Connor, Glenn Close, Josh Brolin, Mila Kunis, Jeremy Renner, Kerry Washington, Andrew Scott, Cailee Spaeny, Daryl McCormack, and Thomas Haden Church.

2019’s Knives Out was up for Original Screenplay and 2022 follow-up Glass Onion vied for Adapted Screenplay. They respectively lost to Parasite and Women Talking. Several critics in Canada are making the case that Wake is the strongest overall of the three pictures. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with Metacritic at 82. It’s probably a safe bet that it’ll make the cut in Adapted Screenplay at the 98th ceremony. As for the cast, O’Connor and Close are being labeled as best in show. I’d say the latter, due to her infamous history of being nominated and not winning, stands a better chance with the Academy. Don’t be surprised if the sole nom for this is in its writing race.

The Golden Globes should should offer different opportunities. Both predecessors were nominated for Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy – with the original falling short to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Banshees of Inisherin taking the prize over Glass. Craig was nominated for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy for both. It was Taron Egerton (Rocketman) and Inisherin‘s Colin Farrell hearing their names called instead. I would suspect Craig will get in again (as will the film) and hope the third time is the charm. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Lost Bus

The Lost Bus found its way to the Toronto Film Festival prior to its September 19th limited theatrical release and October 3rd Apple TV streaming debut. The true life wildfire survival tale comes from Paul Greengrass (the Bourne franchise, United 93, Captain Phillips) with Matthew McConaughey and America Ferrara headlining. Yul Vazquez and Ashlie Atkinson costar.

The 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating is a little deceiving with the 66 on Metacritic more accurately reflecting the critical consensus. McConaughey (a 2013 Best Actor victor for Dallas Buyers Club) and Ferrera (a Supporting Actress nominee in 2023 for Barbie) are being appreciated for their performances, but not enough to anticipate their second tries at gold. Where Bus could be in sole contention is in Visual Effects. If it manages to make the shortlist, it might be a trendy pick for inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Christy

Most recently in headlines for an American Eagle jeans ad controversy, the narrative should be shifting for Sydney Sweeney after Christy‘s premiere at the Toronto Film Festival. The true life boxing biopic casts the 27-year-old as ring champion Christy Martin. Animal Kingdom maker David Michôd directs with a supporting cast including Ben Foster, Merritt Wever, Katy O’Brian, and Ethan Embry.

Ahead of its planned November 7th theatrical release, early reviews are certainly mixed with 65 on Metacritic and 68% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, praise for Sweeney is high. In a year where she’s appeared in a string of underwhelming features (Echo Valley, Americana, Eden), critics are lauding her work and the makeup artists who render her appearance far different than those denim advertisements. She is now in the mix for Best Actress as is the Makeup and Hairstyling department. It should be noted, however, that Actress appears to be stocked with contenders in films with better critical reaction. Playing her trainer turned abusive husband, ink for Foster is impressive. A Supporting Actor bid could materialize though the attention could be trained on the lead. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – John Candy: I Like Me

The 2025 Toronto Film Festival is officially underway and it opened with a documentary about Canadian comedic royalty. John Candy: I Like Me (borrowing a great line from his arguable career highlight Planes, Trains and Automobiles) recounts the actor’s personal and professional life life prior to his death at age 43 in 1994. Colin Hanks directs with Ryan Reynolds serving as a producer. It is slated for an Amazon Prime streaming debut on October 10th.

Early word-of-mouth from up north indicates this an affectionate and worthwhile (if conventional) experience that will satisfy fans of the legendary SCTV and silver screen performer. Nevertheless I’ve written scores of prediction posts on celebrity centered docs and it is rare for any of them to contend in Documentary Feature at the Academy Awards. Don’t look for this to buck the trend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Cut

From Rocky to Raging Bull to Million Dollar Baby and The Fighter, boxing movies have a rich history with awards bodies. The Cut from Sean Ellis seeks to join that esteemed company with Orlando Bloom as a pugilist undergoing an unorthodox physical regimen. Caitriona Balfe and John Turturro (as a relentless trainer) costar.

You will see quite a few Oscar Prediction posts coming from 2025’s Toronto Film Festival in the coming days. The Cut actually premiered at last year’s Canadian event and is finally out this weekend domestically via distribution from Republic Pictures.

Critics are praising the work of Bloom and Turturro while notices for the pic itself are more mixed. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with Metacritic lower at 54. That reaction and the low key release means this won’t make the cut with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Voice of Hind Rajab

The nation of Tunisia has seen only one of their pictures nominated for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars and that was 2020’s The Man Who Sold His Skin. Kaouther Ben Hania was the director and her follow-up is The Voice of Hind Rajab, which has premiered at Venice and will soon play in Toronto. Focused on the true story of a five-year-old’s killing in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, it has already been announced as Tunisia’s entrant for IFF.

Critical reaction thus far has resulted in a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes and the praise in Venice has been effusive including a reported 23 minute ovation. Executive producers on the project include Brad Pitt, Joaquin Phoenix, Rooney Mara, and Alfonso Cuaròn. It is fair to assume that Voice will receive a major campaign from its as yet unannounced distributor. The international category already has plenty of viable contenders including frontrunner Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, and The Secret Agent to name just four. Even with that caveat, the Academy may not be able to ignore this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Smashing Machine

Prior to an October 3rd release from A24, sports biopic The Smashing Machine has been unveiled at Venice with Toronto up next. A passion project of Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, the former wrestler plays MMA fighter Mark Kerr in the solo directorial debut from Benny Safdie. Emily Blunt is Kerr’s wife with Ryan Bader, Bas Rutten, and Oleksandr Usyk providing support.

Usually front and center in franchise, action, or family fare (or a combo of them), Smashing has been circled as Johnson’s potential entry into the awards mix. Word-of-mouth from Italy confirms that with a 93% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 76 on Metacritic. Numerous reviews call it rather conventional and I doubt Best Picture, its direction, or the script will be up for consideration.

Johnson is a genuine threat to make the Best Actor quintet as is Emily Blunt for Supporting Actress. If she gets in, it would be her second nom in three years for that race behind 2023’s Oppenheimer. Since BP likely isn’t in the cards, it makes both of their inclusions questionable but achievable. The best bet might be Makeup and Hairstyling highlighting Johnson’s transformation for the role. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Testament of Ann Lee

Last year, the creative team of Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold (also partners in real life) guided The Brutalist to 10 Oscar nominations and three victories (Adrien Brody in Actor, Original Score, Cinematography). They’re back in contention this year with The Testament of Ann Lee which has premiered in Venice and will make stops at the Toronto and London festivals. Corbet directed The Brutalist and co-scripted with Fastvold. It’s the reverse this time around with Amanda Seyfried headlining as the title character who founded the evangelical Shakers in the 18th century. A musical drama shot in 70mm, the supporting cast includes Thomasin McKenzie, Lewis Pullman, Stacy Martin, Tim Blake Nelson, Christopher Abbott, and Matthew Beard.

Early Italian buzz indicates divisive vibes as how audiences will react (the same could be said for Brutalist). Yet Rotten Tomatoes stands at 100% with 76 on Metacritic. I suspect the pic’s more fervent admirers could propel this to a Best Picture nomination alongside Fastvold’s direction and original screenplay with Corbet. On the other hand, several reviews indicate this is more of a feature to admire than love (again… Brutalist vibes). Academy voters may ignore the aforementioned competitions.

Ignoring Seyfried is another story. Her performance seems poised to garner her a second nom after a Supporting Actress bid in 2020 for Mank. I’d put her behind Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), but a spot in the quintet seems likely. Unlike The Brutalist (where three performances vied for gold), her work should mark the sole attention paid to the cast. Down-the-line nods like Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, Costume Design, and Film Editing are all possibilities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Ballad of a Small Player

Edward Berger’s last two features (2022’s All Quiet on the Western Front, last year’s Conclave) amassed a total of 17 nominations at the Oscars. The former won four including International Feature Film while the latter received Adapted Screenplay. So it’s no surprise that Ballad of a Small Player, his latest that premiered at Telluride, is automatically seen as a potential contender. Based on a 2014 novel by Lawrence Osborne, Colin Farrell stars as a degenerate gambler in the multi-genre affair. Costars include Fala Chen, Deanie Ip, Alex Jennings, and Tilda Swinton. There’s a limited release October 15th before a Netflix bow on October 29th.

While some praise is devoted to the look of Ballad, reaction out of Colorado is mixed and this is evidenced by the 51 Metacritic score. Rotten Tomatoes has yet to report based on 9 write-ups though 6 are fresh with 3 rotten. Reviews tend to agree that Farrell offers a memorable performance. Three years back, he received his first leading actor nod for The Banshees of Inisherin. His work may provide Player‘s one shot at Academy attention. Given the expected competition, I wouldn’t bet on it as Netflix may shift their focus elsewhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…