Tag: Toronto Film Festival

Birth of the Dragon Box Office Prediction

Blumhouse and WWE Studios hope that martial arts fans turn out for Birth of the Dragon, opening next weekend. Set in 1960s San Francisco, it casts Philip Ng as legend Bruce Lee and chronicles one of his most famous showdowns with Shaolin Master Wong Jack Man (Xia Yu).

The film premiered nearly a year ago at the Toronto Film Festival and it’s getting a release stateside on approximately 1500 screens. The late summer release date and lack of promotion could hinder its box office potential.

If box office predictions were made by considering the amount of Wu-Tang Clan members who might attend a screening, I’d have this higher. Minus that, I’ll say it struggles to even reach $3 million.

Birth of the Dragon opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million

For my Leap! prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/16/leap-box-office-prediction/

For my All Saints prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/16/all-saints-box-office-prediction/

For my Good Time prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/21/good-time-box-office-prediction/

Free Fire Box Office Prediction

This Friday, British action-comedy Free Fire hits theaters stateside after it’s already premiered in the U.K. Ben Wheatley’s effort debuted last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to decent buzz and it stands at 81% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Oscar winner Brie Larson (fresh off Kong: Skull Island) headlines along with Sharlto Copley, Armie Hammer, Cillian Murphy, and Jack Reynor.

While the pic may garner some interest from fanboys based on its mostly positive word of mouth, the marketing campaign for Free Fire has been minimal. I don’t yet have a theater count for it, which makes this prediction a little tough (and I could revise it when that count is revealed).

Regardless, I see a low opening here and it’s best hope is likely gaining a cult following once it’s release for home viewing.

Free Fire opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/unforgettable-box-office-prediction/

For my Born in China prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/born-in-china-box-office-prediction/

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/14/the-promise-box-office-prediction/

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/phoenix-forgotten-box-office-prediction/

For my The Lost City of Z prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/the-lost-city-of-z-box-office-prediction/

The Promise Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, The Promise will attempt to bring in adult moviegoers but could face a serious uphill battle. From Hotel Rwanda director Terry George, the film is a love triangle set during the Armenian genocide in the early 20th Century. Christian Bale, Oscar Isaac, and Charlotte Le Bon make up aforementioned triangle.

The pic was once looked at as a potential Oscar hopeful before it screened at the Toronto Film Festival last fall. Reviews haven’t been too kind and it stands at only 31% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.

Surprisingly, The Promise is slated to debut on around 2000 screens so Open Road Films must think it could do OK. Even with the participation of Bale and Isaac, I foresee a very weak premiere.

The Promise opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/unforgettable-box-office-prediction/

For my Born in China, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/born-in-china-box-office-prediction/

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/phoenix-forgotten-box-office-prediction/

For my Free Fire prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/free-fire-box-office-prediction/

For my The Lost City of Z prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/the-lost-city-of-z-box-office-prediction/

The Belko Experiment Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, the horror thriller The Belko Experiment debuts in theaters and it will attempt to serve as counter programming to Disney’s likely box office behemoth Beauty and the Beast. That could be an uphill battle.

Belko comes from director Greg McLean, who last helmed 2016’s underwhelming performer The Darkness. Its screenwriter is of more note – James Gunn, who directed Guardians of the Galaxy and its upcoming May sequel. The pic is set in Bogota, Columbia with a group of employees pitted against one another in a violent social experiment. Stars include John Gallagher Jr., Tony Goldwyn, Adria Arjona, John C. McGinley, and Michael Rooker.

This debuted last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to so-so buzz and it currently sits at 57% on Rotten Tomatoes. The marketing campaign has been rather soft and it’s only slated to open on about 1200 screens.

Add that up and I believe Belko will debut poorly and fade quickly.

The Belko Experiment opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my Beauty and the Beast prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/08/beauty-and-the-beast-box-office-prediction/

A Monster Calls Box Office Prediction

When J.A. Bayona’s A Monster Calls debuted in September at the Toronto Film Festival, it did so to solid buzz and even some awards chatter. Much of that talk seems to have dissipated from nearly four months ago and the pic may struggle to find an audience when it opens wide next weekend.

Based on an acclaimed 2011 novel by Patrick Ness, Calls mixes science fiction elements with tearjerker family drama in this tale of a monstrous creature helping a young boy deal with his grief. Sigourney Weaver, Felicity Jones, Lewis MacDougall, and Liam Neeson (voicing the title character) star.

As mentioned, most reviews have been encouraging (it’s at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes). Yet I wonder what segment of the movie going public will turn out for this. The film was originally scheduled for an October stateside debut before being pushed back. Sci-fi genre fans have had plenty to feast on lately and Underworld: Blood Wars opens against it. A female crowd that might get drawn in by the family drama angle could be put off with the mystical elements. The early January release date doesn’t inspire much hope that Focus Features has tremendous confidence in it.

Festival word-of-mouth aside, I’ll predict A Monster Calls struggles to reach  a mid single digits reception. At least director Bayona can take comfort that his next feature, 2018’s Jurassic World sequel, will likely gross at least 50 times what this might in its opening weekend.

A Monster Calls opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

For my Underworld: Blood Wars prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/28/underworld-blood-wars-box-office-prediction/

For my Hidden Figures prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/29/hidden-figures-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: The Edge of Seventeen

As the Toronto Film Festival has drawn to its conclusion, we have another picture to discuss and it’s a teen comedy drawing great reviews. The Edge of Seventeen stars Hailee Steinfeld as a high school junior whose brother starts dating her best friend. It costars Haley Lu Richardson, Blake Jenner, Woody Harrelson, and Kyra Sedgwick. Kelly Fremon Craig writes and directs and Seventeen is scheduled for a November 18th domestic release.

Six years ago, young Steinfeld was cast in the plum role of Mattie Ross in the Coen Brothers blockbuster True Grit. For it, she nabbed a Best Supporting Actress nod. Critics have been raving about her work here. Yet as has been discussed on this blog in recent days, 2016’s Actress race looks highly competitive and there may not be enough room for her this time around. Perhaps Craig could find herself in the mix for Original Screenplay if the film hits with audiences and the critical love continues.

Look for Oscar Watch posts as more hopefuls screen…

Oscar Watch: LBJ

More Toronto Film Festival action as Rob Reiner’s LBJ has screened. The biopic of our 36th President casts Woody Harrelson in the title role with Jennifer Jason Leigh as Lady Bird. Other cast members include Richard Jenkins, Bill Pullman, and Jeffrey Donovan as JFK. The pic has yet to secure to a fall 2016 release date, but it will likely get some sort of qualifying awards run before year’s end. It will probably come up fruitless.

LBJ has received decent reviews, but they don’t suggest it will be any sort of player in Picture or Director. Any Oscar chatter for this political drama was more geared toward the performances. Early reviews have suggested Harrelson does a commendable job in the role, even if more than one critic has pointed out a total lack of physical resemblance. Leigh was nominated last year for Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight and a consecutive nod seems doubtful.

Where LBJ could suffer most in the minds of voters is that it could be looked at as the second best film this year about the man. HBO’s All the Way with Bryan Cranston earned plenty of Emmy nominations. The big screen version of LBJ faces an improbable road to do the same.

lbj

Oscar Watch: I, Daniel Blake

It won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival earlier this year. Critical raves for it have continued as it’s screened in Toronto. So the time has come to bring up I, Daniel Blake in the Oscar Watch posts.

The pic comes from acclaimed 80 year-old British director Ken Loach and focuses on an Englishman (stand-up comedian Dave Johns) battling the health care system. Blake is said to be the quite the emotional experience with a powerful performance from its lead.

If some of the later fall release don’t pan out, I could see Oscar voters turning their attention to this for consideration. A Best Actor nod for Johns is probably a long shot (even though this particular category isn’t ultra competitive yet like Actress is). However, keep this in mind as a dark horse for Picture and Director.

Oscar Watch: The Promise

Twelve years ago, director Terry George’s Hotel Rwanda earned several Oscar nominations, including Actor (Don Cheadle), Supporting Actress (Sophie Okonedo), and Adapted Screenplay. George’s follow-up, 2007’s Reservation Road with Joaquin Phoenix, was a hoped for awards contender that faded away.

His latest effort is The Promise, which focuses on the Armenian genocide and stars Oscar Isaac and Christian Bale. Due to the pedigree involved, it was eyed as potential Academy bait for this season.

The Promise has screened at the Toronto Film Festival to a host of middling reviews and it appears to be a casualty of so-so buzz. The festival season always anoints some big contenders and dilutes others to non-factor status. This appears to be the case here and for Oscar followers, I wouldn’t look for The Promise to grant you any potential nominations in the future.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue as further hopefuls screen up north and elsewhere…

Oscar Watch: Deepwater Horizon

In just over two weeks, Peter Berg’s action packed retelling of the BP drilling rig explosion Deepwater Horizon hits theaters. Festival audiences in Toronto got their sneak peek at it yesterday and early reviews suggest it’s an audience pleaser that is likely to be a big hit.

Horizon teams director Berg with his Lone Survivor star Mark Wahlberg. The supporting cast includes Kurt Russell, Kate Hudson, John Malkovich, Gina Rodriguez, and Dylan O’Brien. Even with its positive critical notices, Horizon is not expected to be any sort of player in the major categories. Mr. Russell was singled out by a couple of writers, but a Supporting Actor nod would be a major surprise.

Where the pic could make an impact is in the two Sound races (Editing and Mixing), just like Lone Survivor did with its nominations. Visual effects is a possibility, but it’ll have a lot more competition in that particular category. The film’s large $156 million budget is said to contribute to it sounding and looking pretty amazing and voters could reward it in these technical competitions.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…