Arriving in theaters a little later than anticipated, historical drama Chappaquiddick debuts next weekend. Directed by John Curran, the film recounts the 1969 car accident that killed Mary Jo Kopechne and Ted Kennedy’s role in it. Jason Clarke plays Kennedy with Kate Mara as Kopechne. Supporting players include Ed Helms, Bruce Dern, Jim Gaffigan, Taylor Nichols, and Clancy Brown.
The pic receives its first screening last fall at the Toronto Film Festival. Reviews were mostly positive and it stands at 64% on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, reaction was muted enough that Entertainment Studios moved it from its December 2017 awards qualifying run to this April roll out.
Chappaquiddick likely faces a tough road ahead. Premiering on approximately 1500 screens, its only real hope to appeal to older moviegoers who recall the events from nearly a half century ago. I’ll project that only gets this to $2-$3 million.
Chappaquiddick opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
There’s an impressive amount of talent in front of and behind the camera in Suburbicon, opening next weekend. Yet it may not be enough to prevent it from becoming a flop.
George Clooney directs the 1950s set crime comedy with a script from the Coen Brothers and a cast led by Matt Damon, Julianne Moore, and Oscar Isaac. Before its September premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, the pic was looked at as a potential awards contender. Then the reviews happened. Critical reaction hasn’t been too kind and it sits at just 41% on Rotten Tomatoes.
The final weekend of October (unless you’re talking horror flicks) isn’t traditionally fertile ground for newcomers. With muted buzz at best, I believe Suburbicon will have trouble even reaching double digits.
Suburbicon opening weekend prediction: $7.3 million
Three years ago, Angelina Jolie’s war drama Unbroken was looked at as a major awards contender until it screened for critics. While it performed well at the box office, her second directorial effort received three technical nominations outside of the major categories.
Now, FirstTheyKilledMyFather (her fourth feature behind the camera) could be looking at a Best Picture nod, but in a different manner. The pic, which played at the Telluride and Toronto fests and is currently available on Netflix, has received the best reviews of the director’s career (89% on Rotten Tomatoes).
The 1970s set dramatic thriller will be Cambodia’s official entry into the Best Foreign Language Film race and it stands a very real shot at recognition. I don’t see it getting into the conversation for Picture itself, but Jolie could still find herself in the Oscar mix in a way that fell through in 2014.
We’ve arrived at my second round of weekly Oscar predictions that will come your way every Thursday on the blog! Since last week, a number of titles have screened at the Toronto Film Festival, in addition to the Venice and Telluride fests that preceded it.
As I did last week, I will list my current predicted nominees in the eight biggest races with a total of 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 in the others. Beginning today, you’ll be able to see the fluctuation in rankings from last week to the current one and see what and who has joined and dropped out. Once again, rankings reflect who and what I think will be nominated and not necessarily win.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
5. Mudbound (PR: 4)
6. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)
11. Downsizing (PR: 8)
12. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 16)
13. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)
14. Detroit (PR: 14)
15. mother! (PR: 13)
16. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
17. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 18)
18. Wonderstruck (PR: 17)
19. Coco (PR: 19)
20. Get Out (PR: 20)
21. Lady Bird (PR: 22)
22. Wind River (PR: 21)
23. The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
24. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Wonder Woman (PR: 23)
Dropped Out:
Molly’s Game
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
10. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)
12. Alexander Payne, Downsizing (PR: 9)
13. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
14. Darren Aronofsky, mother! (PR: 13)
15. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 5)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 15)
8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 7)
10. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 12)
12. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)
13. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 10)
15. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Renner, Wind River
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
7. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 7)
11. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 8)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)
13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)
14. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night (PR: 15)
15. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Isabelle Huppert, Happy End
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)
7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)
8. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)
11. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)
13. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 14)
14. Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Harrison Ford, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)
2. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 2)
3. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)
8. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (PR: 7)
9. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 11)
10. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon (PR: 13)
11. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 14)
12. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)
14. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)
7. Stronger (PR: 12)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. You Were Never Really Here (PR: 7)
11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)
12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)
13. Wonder (PR: 13)
14. My Cousin Rachel (PR: 14)
15. Logan (PR: 15)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
5. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
8. Dunkirk (PR: 9)
9. Downsizing (PR: 5)
10. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)
11. Lady Bird (PR: 11)
12. The Big Sick (PR: 10)
13. mother! (PR: 13)
14. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
15. The Florida Project (PR: 12)
And there you have it, folks! Expect more Oscar Watch posts to come your way and my next full predictions next Thursday…
It’s been nearly 25 years since Liam Neeson received his one and only Oscar nomination for playing Oskar Schindler in 1993’s Schindler’sList. He’s had acclaimed roles since then (2004’s Kinsey being a notable one). To younger moviegoers, he may just be known as the brooding action hero from the Taken franchise and others. Yet MarkFelt: TheManWhoBroughtDowntheWhiteHouse had prognosticators like me take notice when it screened at the Toronto Film Festival.
The film casts Neeson as the title character, the real-life FBI man who was revealed decades later to be Deep Throat. Felt provided the invaluable intel that resulted in President Nixon’s resignation. Peter Landesman directs with a supporting cast that includes Diane Lane, Tony Goldwyn, Bruce Greenwood, Ike Barinholtz, and Michael C. Hall.
While reviews for Neeson’s work here have been solid, reaction to the picture itself has been rather lackluster. It stands at just 44% on Rotten Tomatoes. In other words, Neeson is the only possibility at all for Academy chatter. That appears to be a long shot. The film fest season of the past couple weeks has provided a couple names with better chances like Denzel Washington in RomanJ.Israel, Esq. and Jake Gyllenhaal in Stronger. That’s in addition to the assured nomination of Gary Oldman in DarkestHour, not to mention plenty of other contenders whose movies haven’t screened.
The reaction to the film itself was mixed, but Denzel Washington has increased his chances for an eighth Oscar nomination for RomanJ. Israel, Esq. The legal drama is director Dan Gilroy’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2014 pic Nightcrawler (which is one of my favorite movies of the last few years). Colin Farrell and Carmen Ejogo costar.
As mentioned, reviews from its Toronto Film Festival screening have not all been positive (it’s at 71% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). Yet critics have singled out Denzel’s work here. His inclusion in Best Actor might be its only chance at Academy recognition. Gilroy could land an Original Screenplay nod (as he did for Nightcrawler), but that race is already looking busy.
Mr. Washington has won twice – for Supporting Actor in 1989’s Glory and lead in 2001’s TrainingDay. Just last year, he probably came very close to getting his third for Fences (he lost to Casey Affleck in ManchesterbytheSea).
In my intital round of predictions last Thursday, I had the performer playing the title character here ranked 15th. He’ll be ranked higher in the second round on Thursday.
Andrew Garfield goes for his second Best Actor Oscar nod in a row with Breathe, which has screened at the Toronto Film Festival. In it, Garfield plays a man diagnosed with polio who becomes a disabilities advocate. The drama marks the directorial debut of Andy Serkis, known most for giving life to CG creations in the LordoftheRings and PlanetoftheApes franchises. Other stars include Claire Foy and Hugh Bonneville.
Early reviews haven’t been too positive, but they’ve pointed out it wears its Oscar hopes on its sleeve. It’s been compared to TheTheoryofEverything, which did win Eddie Redmayne a statue. With Best Actor looking like it has some open slots (for now), a strong campaign could give Garfield nod #2 after last year’s HacksawRidge. Yet the troubling reviews won’t help.
On paper, The Current War certainly looks like a potential Oscar contender. It comes from the Weinstein Company, a studio that knows how to get their pictures nominated. It’s a period piece drama featuring previous nominees Benedict Cumberbatch and Michael Shannon, as well as other recognizable faces like Nicholas Hoult, Tom Holland, and Katherine Waterston. It’s director Alfonso Gomez-Rejon’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2015 indie dramedy Me and Earl and the Dying Girl.
War casts Cumberbatch as Thomas Edison and Shannon as George Westinghouse in their rivalry to determine whose electricity would power the world. Yet the buzz from the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend has dimmed its chances at Academy attention. There’s a small number of reviews available, but most of them have been negative and it’s at just 20% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Unless the Weinstein group figures out a way to make some nominating magic happen, it’s unlikely Current will factor into the race at all. Mr. Shannon, on the bright side, could get Supporting Actor attention for the far more well-received The Shape of Water.
Kate Winslet has received seven total Oscar nominations (with one win), so she pretty much belongs in the Meryl Streep category of almost any movie she makes will get automatic Academy speculation. OK, maybe not Divergent but most of them.
So when TheMountainBetweenUs got its Toronto Film Festival premiere this weekend, prognosticators were ready. The pic is a disaster pic/romance that casts Winslet as a plane crash survivor along with Idris Elba. They brave the wilderness while falling for each other.
Mountain is based on a 2011 Charles Martin bestseller and marks the English language debut of Israeli filmmaker Hany Abu-Assad, who’s received two Foreign Language Picture nods. Sounds like a potential Oscar player, right?
Not so fast. Early reviews out of Toronto are mostly just so-so. It would appear its possibilities for Academy nods are now grounded. The good news for Winslet? She could still find herself in the mix for attention for nomination #9 for Woody Allen’s WonderWheel later this year. And Elba stands a long shot chance in Supporting Actor for Molly’sGame.
Blogger’s Note Update (09/11/17): Neon has picked up the distribution rights for I, Tonya. Expect it to be released by year’s end for an Oscar push.
One picture skated into the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend with relatively small expectations. Yet Craig Gillespie’s I, Tonya has turned into a major critical and audience favorite. Whispers of Oscar possibilities are getting considerably louder.
The title character is Tonya Harding, the infamous Olympic figure skater accused of masterminding an attack on rival Nancy Kerrigan in 1994. Margot Robbie is Harding and her performance is drawing many raves. Allison Janney portrays Tonya’s mom and she’s getting equal, if not more, attention.
Robbie has yet to be nominated for an Oscar in her short but fruitful career thus far. Prognosticators are also keeping an eye on her supporting turn in this fall’s GoodbyeChristopherRobin. The packed nature of Best Actress has been discussed several times over the last few days on this blog. Even with fierce competition, early notices seem to indicate that Robbie could be a factor.
The Supporting Actress race looks less crowded as of now. Janney, a seven-time Emmy winner, would also be a newcomer for Academy attention. Her inclusion in that category is looking like a major possibility.
One potential hiccup: I,Tonya doesn’t have a distributor at press time and it’s not 100% certain it’s released before the end of the year. However, based on the sizzling buzz emanating from our neighbor to the north, look for that to happen rapidly.
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