When it comes to picking up hardware at awards shows for her acting, Regina King has been killing it lately. She’s won three Emmys for two different TV shows in the past half decade and may well win a fourth in a couple of weeks for HBO’s Watchmen. In 2019, King took Supporting Actress at the Oscars for If Beale Street Could Talk.
And now the Venice Film Festival has opened up real possibilities for her feature film directorial debut. One Night in Miami is based on the 2013 stage play by Kemp Powers, who adapted his own work here. It tells the fictionalized story of a real historical meeting involving Cassius Clay (before the name change to Ali) on the night he defeated Sonny Liston for the heavyweight title. The champ met with some other familiar names – Malcolm X, football star Jim Brown, and soul crooner Sam Cooke.
Reviews are out based on the Venice screening and Miami will be traveling to the Toronto Film Festival later this week. The verdict is strong so far with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Simply put, this feels like a legitimate contender for Oscar attention.
The acting placements will be interesting to watch. Of the four leading characters, conventional wisdom is that all four will contend in Supporting Actor. They are Kingsley Ben-Adir as Malcom X, Eli Goree as Clay, Aldis Hodge as Brown, and Leslie Odom, Jr. as Cooke. The whole quartet is receiving raves, but I’d give it a slight edge for Ben-Adir to emerge out of the pack. If he does so, he would be the second performer nominated for playing X behind Denzel Washington for Spike Lee’s Malcolm X. If Goree were to emerge, he would also be the second actor recognized for playing Ali after Will Smith portrayed him in Michael Mann’s Ali.
Furthermore, a directing nod for King would make its own history as she would be the first African-American female to make the final cut (only five women have been nominated total in the Academy’s history). Powers could in the mix for his Adapted Screenplay and a Best Picture nod seems possible. Also of note: Odom performs a closing credits song titled “Speak Now” which is being mentioned as a probable contender in Original Song.
Bottom line: one night in Venice has upped the visibility for One Night in Miami to be a player on the circuit. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
We have arrived at Week #2 for my Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. I do so as the Venice Film Festival has kicked off with Telluride and Toronto slated to virtually get underway in the coming days. That means quite a few Oscar Watch posts will be up in short order, including for several of the features predicted below.
Since last Thursday, I’ve written only two Watch entries. Mulan isn’t likely to be a factor in any of the big races, but it could definitely contend for some technical categories. The forthcoming horror pic Antebellum didn’t impress critics and won’t be mentioned again here. If you would like to peruse those posts, you can do so here:
When I wrote my initial guesstimates one week ago, it was on the following day that movie lovers across the globe were hit with tragic news. The loss of Chadwick Boseman to colon cancer has shocked and saddened all of us. Despite his acclaimed performances in 42, Get On Up, and his iconic work as Black Panther, Mr. Boseman has yet to receive a nomination from the Academy. Last Thursday, I already had him listed at #2 in Supporting Actor for the upcoming Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. He is now listed first as is his costar Viola Davis in Best Actress.
Here are some other developments of note:
I am still higher on Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods (which also featured Boseman) than some other prognosticators. I have it listed for inclusion in Best Picture, Actor (Delroy Lindo), and Original Screenplay. However, its numbers have fallen a bit and I am taking Spike Lee out of my Director five.
My estimated eight Best Picture nominees has remained intact with some shifting in the rankings.
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Paul Greengrass (News of the World) are in for Director with the aforementioned Spike Lee and Francis Lee (Ammonite) out.
The five in Actress has not changed. In Actor, I’ve made the move to take Bill Murray’s performance in On the Rocks and put it in the supporting field. That allows for Tom Hanks (News of the World) to move up. In general, I have soured a bit on Rocks. You’ll see below that its numbers have dropped precipitously.
Supporting Actress also includes the same five women and that’s also the case with Supporting Actor.
Though I don’t have it in the top five, I’ve corrected French Exit to be listed in Adapted Screenplay as opposed to Original. Soul replaces The French Dispatch in Original for the moment while The Father vaults over West Side Story in Adapted.
As you’ll see, there’s plenty of new faces being mentioned for the first time that didn’t make the list last week and others who have dropped.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Dune (PR: 6)
5. News of the World (PR: 7)
6. Ammonite (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 16)
10. Soul (PR: 14)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
12. The French Dispatch (PR: 9)
13. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
15. Minari (PR: 18)
16. The Father (PR: 17)
17. Annette (PR: 13)
18. Stillwater (PR: 21)
19. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 22)
20. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Tenet (PR: 15)
22. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Next Goal Wins (PR: 24)
24. French Exit (PR: 25)
25. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
On the Rocks
C’Mon C’Mon
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
5. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
7. Francis Lee, Ammonite (PR: 5)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8)
9. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 9)
10. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
11. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
12. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 11)
13. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
14. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Christopher Nolan, Tenet (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
Leos Carax, Annette
Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 3)
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 4)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 14)
8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 11)
10. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 8)
11. Marion Cotillard, Annette
12. Julianne Moore, The Glorias (PR: 9)
13. Elisabeth Moss, Shirley (PR: 15)
14. Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 13)
15. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 3)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 2)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)
8. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 13)
9. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 8)
10. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12)
12. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10)
13. Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)
14. Ansel Elgort, West Side Story (PR: 9)
15. Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bill Murray, On the Rocks (moved to Supporting Actor)
Timothee Chalamet, Dune
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 7)
7. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 14)
8. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
9. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater (PR: 9)
10. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Debra Winger, Kajillionaire (PR: 8)
14. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 11)
15. Kristin Scott Thomas, Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune
Nicole Kidman, The Prom
Elisabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 7)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
8. Tom Burke, Mank (PR: 6)
9, Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 12)
10. Jeremy Strong, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Lucas Hedges, French Exit (PR: 9)
14. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
15. David Alvarez, West Side Story (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Judas and the Black Messiah
Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
Oscar Isaac, Dune
Forest Whitaker, Respect
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Ammonite (PR: 4)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. Soul (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: 10)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Stillwater (PR: 11)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 15)
11. Annette (PR: 13)
12. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9)
13. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
14. Red, White, and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Tenet (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
French Exit (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. Dune (PR: 2)
4. The Father (PR: 6)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 8)
8. West Side Story (PR: 4)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 13)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
11. French Exit (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)
12. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9)
13. The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 11)
15. Respect (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
The Midnight Sky
I’ll be back at it with updated predictions next Thursday!
As is tradition on the blog, my weekly Oscar prediction posts (coming to you each Thursday) kick off in the final weekend of August!
So while I’m following up with my normal Academy Awards speculating schedule, I am doing so in a year that is anything but traditional. The COVID-19 pandemic has tremendously altered release schedules for many pictures. This has left many release dates still uncertain.
Additionally, I have chosen this late August date because it’s usually right before some high-profile film festivals like Toronto, Venice, and Telluride are set to kick off. Some of these fests are continuing to operate in a much different fashion. We will see some of the titles identified below (including Nomadland, Ammonite and One Night in Miami) screen at these virtual competitions in the coming days.
This week, one significant contender had its unveiling for critics and that’s Christopher Nolan’s Tenet. That reaction leads me to believe that it will certainly contend in a half dozen or so technical races, but that a Picture or Directing nod is a bit of a long shot.
Even in a year without the pandemic related challenges, Oscar speculation this early always comes with numerous caveats. They include the following:
Release dates will change and some movies listed here will get pushed back. This sure applies to 2020 and that’s even with the Academy extending eligibility to any features released in January and February of 2021.
There will be pics and performances that come out of nowhere and make their way to the release calendar that aren’t identified here.
Some performances listed in lead will shift to supporting and vice versa. For titles like David Fincher’s Mank, Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch – category placement for their large casts is still a question mark. As an example, there’s lot of potential contenders in The French Dispatch, but it’s impossible to determine who gets the critical shine. For the time being, I’m not listing any of the actors in that particular film.
There will be Original Screenplay hopefuls that turn out to be Adapted and vice versa.
Even with all those caveats, I was able to identify the winners in each of the top 8 categories in both 2018 and 2019. Their numeric placement varied widely. In 2018, I had Best Picture victor Green Book all the way down at 21 of my first initial 25 possibilities. Roma director Alfonso Cuaron, on the other hand, was placed at #2. Bohemian Rhapsody‘s Rami Malek was at #12 in Best Actor with Olivia Colman in The Favourite at 9th in Actress. Mahershala Ali (Green Book) was 9th and Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) was 2nd in the supporting fields. Adapted Screenplay winner BlacKkKlansman was in fifth with Original Screenplay recipient Green Book at #11.
As for 2019, Best Picture winner Parasite was originally placed in slot #7 while its director Bong Joon-Ho was fifth. In the lead acting companions, Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) was 6th and Renee Zellweger (Judy) was fifth. In Supporting Actor, Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) was perched at #1 and that never changed. Supporting Actress Laura Dern (Marriage Story) was #2. Adapted Screenplay Jojo Rabbit was fourth and Original Screenplay Parasite was 5th.
So based on history, you’re likely seeing the eventual 2020 Oscar winners somewhere here on these listings. In 2020, though, who really knows?
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. Nomadland
3. Da 5 Bloods
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Ammonite
6. Dune
7. News of the World
8. West Side Story
Other Possibilities
9. The French Dispatch
10. Hillbilly Elegy
11. On the Rocks
12. Judas and the Black Messiah
13. Annette
14. Soul
15. Tenet
16. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
17. The Father
18. Minari
19. C’Mon C’Mon
20. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
21. Stillwater
22. The United States vs. Billie Holiday
23. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
24. Next Goal Wins
25. French Exit
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
3. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
5. Francis Lee, Ammonite
Other Possibilities:
6. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Paul Greengrass, News of the World
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
9. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
10. Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
11. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy
12. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
13. Christopher Nolan, Tenet
14. Leos Carax. Annette
15. Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
8. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
9. Julianne Moore, The Glorias
10. Marion Cotillard, Annette
11. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
12. Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
13. Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
14. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
15. Elisabeth Moss, Shirley
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
2. Gary Oldman, Mank
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World
7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
8. Adam Driver, Annette
9. Ansel Elgort, West Side Story
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
11. Timothee Chalamet, Dune
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
13. Matt Damon, Stillwater
14. Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
15. Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
3. Olivia Colman, The Father
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World
Other Possibilities:
6. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
7. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
8. Debra Winger, Kajillionaire
9. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater
10. Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon
11. Mary J. Blige, Respect
12. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune
13. Meryl Streep, The Prom
14. Nicole Kidman, The Prom
15. Elisabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Strathairn, Nomadland
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Burke, Mank
7. Tom Pelphrey, Mank
8. David Alvarez, West Side Story
9. Lucas Hedges, French Exit
10. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods
11. Jesse Plemons, Judas and the Black Messiah
12. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
13. Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
14. Oscar Isaac, Dune
15. Forest Whitaker, Respect
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Da 5 Bloods
4. Ammonite
5. The French Dispatch
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul
7. On the Rocks
8. Judas and the Black Messiah
9. C’Mon C’Mon
10. Minari
11. Stillwater
12. French Exit
13. Annette
14. Tenet
15. Promising Young Woman
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland
2. Dune
3. News of the World
4. West Side Story
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Other Possibilities:
6. The Father
7. Hillbilly Elegy
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
9. Next Goal Wins
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday
11. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
12. The White Tiger
13. One Night in Miami
14. Respect
15. The Midnight Sky
I’ll be back at it next Thursday, folks! Until then…
In 2014, Rosamund Pike received her first and only Oscar nomination for David Fincher’s Gone Girl. The British actress has since appeared in a string of Indies that have garnered some critical kudos with scant awards attention. These titles include 2016’s A United Kingdom and 2018’s A Private War.
In the biographical drama Radioactive from director Marjane Satrapi, Pike portrays Nobel prize winning physicist Marie Curie. The film originally played at last year’s Toronto Film Festival and is now available for streaming today on Amazon Prime. It’s received generally positive reviews and stands at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes. Even the write-ups gearing more toward the negative praise Pike’s performance.
Gone Girl was a blockbuster and that helped the actress nab her Academy nod. The other projects just never broke through enough with mainstream audiences to get on the awards radar screen. That may well certainly apply to Radioactive as well. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The Cannes Film Festival, originally scheduled for May in the French Riviera, was canceled this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, an announcement today confirmed that the long running fest will exist in some form. And like everything in 2020… it’s a little confusing. A lineup announcement of 56 pictures was put out as being in the Cannes fold. However, these titles will premiere at various other events scheduled later in the year such as the Toronto and Telluride festivals, among others.
Awards watchers know that Cannes is a fertile breeding ground for Oscar hopefuls. Just last year, Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite won top Cannes prize the Palme d’or and eventually won Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Some other titles (among many) that premiered at Cannes and got Oscar attention include Apocalypse Now, The Piano, Pulp Fiction, and The Pianist.
So what are some significant 2020 Cannes contenders that could vie for Oscar gold? I’ll give you a quintet and we start with Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch. The latest effort from the acclaimed filmmaker is his live-action follow-up to 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel which nabbed a leading nine nominations at that year’s Oscars. The cast is filled with familiar faces and many Anderson regulars including Benicio del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Frances McDormand, Timothee Chalamet, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson, Edward Norton, Saoirse Ronan, Willem Dafoe, and Anjelica Huston. It is obviously high on the list for potential players throughout awards season.
Ronan also costars in Ammonite, a period drama from director Francis Lee. Her costar is Kate Winslet and between the two of them they have 11 Academy nominations. Expect plenty of chatter as to their viability in the performance races.
Steve McQueen is premiering not one, but two pictures with the Cannes label – Lovers Rock and Mangrove. The director saw his 2013 pic 12 Years a Slave awarded Best Picture. Both of his new titles focus on race relations in the United Kingdom.
Finally, Pixar is in the mix with Soul. Originally scheduled for summer, it was pushed back to November and is rightfully seen as a top tier contender in the Animated Feature derby. Featuring the voices of Jamie Foxx and Tina Fey, Soul is directed by Pete Docter. He’s responsible for two of the studio’s most acclaimed entries and Oscar winners – 2009’s Up and 2015’s Inside Out.
I would suspect that the 51 other Cannes selections could wind up in the mix as well (especially in the International Feature Film race). Time will tell, but the Cannes label will carry on in 2020 (albeit under unforeseen and unique circumstances).
Alongside Glenn Close and Amy Adams, Annette Bening could be the most high profile and acclaimed actress that has yet to win Oscar gold despite multiple nominations. She is a four time nominee – once for Supporting Actress in 1990’s The Grifters and thrice nominated in the lead race with 1999’s American Beauty, 2004’s Being Julia, and 2010’s The Kids Are All Right. In both 1999 and 2004, Bening was likely the runner-up and lost both awards to Hilary Swank (for Boys Don’t Cry and Million Dollar Baby, respectively).
There’s a feeling that her time may come, but this year’s Hope Gap is unlikely to get her there. The drama premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival. Focusing on her strained marriage with Bill Nighy, Gap is directed by William Nicholson. He’s known most for his screenwriting with credits including the Oscar winning Gladiator as well as Shadowlands, Nell, and Les Miserables (2012 version).
So while the Oscar pedigree is certainly present, reviews are decidedly more mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes rating stands at a so-so 63% after Gap forewent a theatrical release and went straight to VOD. Perhaps Bening will have a bite at the Supporting Actress apple with October’s Death on the Nile, the follow-up to Murder on the Orient Express. As for Gap, there’s scant hope. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The COVID-19 pandemic has obviously changed the operation of movie theaters for the past two months and that looks to continue into the foreseeable future in many states across the nation. For someone who has a blog that focuses on a lot on Oscar forecasting, this has raised numerous questions. The primary one is: could there really be an Oscar telecast for 2020 pictures next year if there’s little product being released? And I certainly don’t think Sonic the Hedgehog or Birds of Prey will sweep the ceremony in February 2021.
A significant part of the answer to that question was revealed today. The Academy, after an internal Zoom conference, announced that streaming and VOD product will indeed be eligible for Oscar consideration. You may ask – weren’t Netflix and other streamers already being nominated? After all, 2019 saw Best Picture and/or acting nods for The Irishman, Marriage Story, and The Two Popes. Well, not really. The previous rule was that each streaming entry had to screen in Los Angeles for a one week awards qualifying run. That rule (at least for 2020) has been abolished.
So what does that mean? The uncertainty surrounding the opening of theaters could mean a lot more features hitting Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hulu, and any other VOD platforms. We have witnessed this already with Trolls World Tour landing on small screens when it was supposed to hit multiplexes. That’s not all. Just yesterday, Judd Apatow’s latest comedy King of Staten Island starring Pete Davidson skipped its theatrical run and opted for a June VOD date. The Lovebirds, which reunites Kumail Nanjiani with his The Big Sick director Michael Showalter, arrives May 22 on Netflix. The Seth Rogen comedy An American Pickle will now premiere on HBO Max.
With today’s announcement, I suspect we could see many Oscar contenders (especially lower budget ones) make the streaming move. And with the uncertainty regarding film festivals like Cannes, Venice, Toronto, and Telluride (typically the launching pads for such content), this could be the easiest way to get such features to the masses around the same time frame.
My Oscar coverage, when it’s available, will continue here!
After opening in limited release over the holidays, true life legal drama Just Mercy expands nationwide next weekend. From director Destin Daniel Cretton, the pic stars Michael B. Jordan as attorney seeking to free wrongfully imprisoned Jamie Foxx. The supporting cast includes Brie Larson, Rob Morgan, Tim Blake Nelson, and Rafe Spall.
Mercy premiered at the Toronto Film Festival back in September to mostly positive reviews. It stands at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, it never managed to achieve any significant awards chatter with the exception of a SAG nod in Supporting Actor for Foxx. He might still get an Oscar nomination (even though that’s iffy), but that should be the extent of any Academy attention. More buzz for top tier nominations could have assisted with the box office.
In the Christmas weekend, this got a per theater average under $30,000 on four screens. That’s less than other rollouts for prestige projects. I will estimate that Mercy barely doesn’t reach double digits as it hits over 2000 venues.
Just Mercy opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
Tom Hanks dons the iconic red cardigan next weekend in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. The feel good drama casts the double Oscar winner as childrens host Mister Rogers, just one year after Won’t You Be My Neighbor? became one of the highest grossing documentaries of all time. Marielle Heller (who directed Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant to Academy nods last year in Can You Ever Forgive Me?) is behind the camera. Matthew Rhys stars as a journalist doing a story on Rogers with Susan Kelechi Watson and Chris Cooper in the supporting cast.
Since Day debuted at the Toronto Film Festival a couple months back, solid buzz followed and its current Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 97%. It appears probable that Hanks will receive his first Oscar nomination (in Supporting Actor) since 2000’s Cast Away. The aforementioned 2018 doc likely helps its visibility, as does casting one of our biggest movie stars as one of America’s most beloved figures.
There is the matter of Frozen II, which could siphon some family audiences away. Beautiful also arrives on the pre Thanksgiving long frame and some filmgoers may simply choose to spend time in this neighborhood at that time.
While I do believe a premiere of over $20 million (maybe even $25 million) is feasible, I’ll say high teens with weekends of strong holds ahead is the play.
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million
Once looked at as a potential Oscar contender, buzz for Harriet has significantly dwindled since its debut at the Toronto Film Festival back in September. I suspect this autobiographical tale of abolitionist Harriet Tubman will suffer at the box office as a result. Widows actress Cynthia Erivo stars in the title role with a supporting cast including Leslie Odom Jr., Joe Alwyn, and Janelle Monae. Kasi Lemmons directs.
Its premiere in Canada yielded mixed reviews and it currently stands at a middling 61% on Rotten Tomatoes. Best Picture seems like a lost cause and Erivo (once looked at as a sure fire contender) may have a tough time making the cut for Best Actress.
Based on those factors, I foresee Harriet struggling to hit double digits for its start.
Harriet opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million
For my Terminator: Dark Fate prediction, click here:
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