Oscar Predictions: Sing Sing

For his performance as Rustin, Colman Domingo was up for his first Oscar nomination last night as he ultimately fell short as expected to Cillian Murphy’s Oppenheimer. He could see a return to the ceremony quickly with Sing Sing. Greg Kwedar’s drama is based on a real life arts program from the maximum security prison in the title. Domingo leads a cast that includes Paul Raci (nominated for Supporting Actor in 2020 for Sound of Metal) and actual former inmates.

The film was screened in Toronto all the way back in September of last year. A24 snatched up the rights based on the north of the border acclaim (the RT rating is 95%) and have slated a July release. If the studio mounts a spirited campaign (and they probably will), Sing Sing could be an across the board contender in Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and perhaps Original Score (where Bryce Dessner’s work is being singled out). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Colman Domingo in Rustin

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second performer in Best Actor and that’s Colman Domingo as Rustin. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Colman Domingo:

As the principal organizer of the March for Freedom Rally, Domingo’s turn as Bayard Rustin in George C. Wolfe’s Netflix biopic was identified early on as Academy bait. He’s been nominated in all the key precursors: Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. It’s been a year of significant exposure with this, his supporting turn in The Color Purple, and the lead in Sing Sing (which premiered at Toronto and could garner awards attention for him next year).

The Case Against Colman Domingo:

The film itself did not become a contender in other categories. Domingo’s nod marks its sole nomination and he’s the only hopeful in Actor from a movie not up for BP. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) have emerged in the forerunning contests.

The Verdict:

Given the fact that Rustin never really approached BP vying status, it’s impressive that Domingo checked off all the major ceremonies (leaving Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon on the outside looking in). Don’t expect a rally of support for a major upset win.

My Case Of posts will continue with Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction

I will begin with the ten BP contenders and then alternate alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction kicks it off!

The Case for American Fiction:

The awards buzz for Hustle went into high gear when it won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. That prize has also been bestowed to BP victors American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. The satire has been nominated for BP at Critics Choice and the Golden Globes and it exceeded expectations with 5 totals noms: Jeffrey Wright in Actor, Sterling K. Brown for Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Original Score being the others.

The Case Against American Fiction:

It hasn’t won any of the previous BP derbies. Despite the five mentions, it missed out in key BP winning races like Director and Film Editing.

The Verdict:

American Beauty should still be the most recent BP recipient beginning the word American. Fiction‘s best hope for a statue is in the seemingly wide open Adapted Screenplay category where it emerged victorious at Critics Choice.

My Case Of posts will continue with Anatomy of a Fall…

Oscar Predictions: Love Lies Bleeding

Rose Glass’s 2020 directorial debut Saint Maud was a critically hailed horror tale that originally screened at Toronto in 2019. Her sophomore effort Love Lies Bleeding (out March 8th) is a Sundance affair and it is one of the more eagerly awaited titles. The 80s set noirish thriller casts Kristen Stewart and Katy O’Brian as lovers embroiled in crime drama. Costars include Ed Harris, Jena Malone, Anna Baryshnikov, and Dave Franco.

From the reaction out of Utah, Bleeding should inspire strong reactions across the spectrum. The RT score is 90% (**Blogger’s Note: updated March 9th) with reviewers praising technical aspects (cinematography, score) and the cast (Stewart is particularly getting some shouts along with Harris). K-Stew has quite a presence at Sundance 2024. Her sci-fi two-hander Love Me with Steven Yeun is drawing mixed notices.

A24 apparently has a wild ride on its hands. If the studio play their cards right, supporting campaigns for Stewart (or maybe lead) and Harris are in order. On the other hand, this could be too out there for awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Is Origin An Oscar Sleeper?

Last year, a late breaking Oscar campaign for Andrea Riseborough’s performance in the micro-budgeted drama To Leslie resulted in success. With various celebrities holding events touting her work, Riseborough nabbed one of the five slots in Actress (over favored competitors like Danielle Deadwyler in Till and Viola Davis in The Woman King). This resulted in both controversy and kudos for a unique way to campaign for gold hardware.

Now for the 96th Academy Awards, we have another midnight hour title raising eyebrows in the form of Selma director Ana DuVernay’s Origin. Based on Isabel Wilkerson’s nonfiction novel, the race relations drama premiered on the festival circuit early in the fall at Venice and Toronto. Some reviews were raves, but not all. An 80% Rotten Tomatoes score resulted and Neon picked up distribution rights. Its wide release comes this Friday.

That timing could come in handy. However, Origin hasn’t been seen as a true threat for Picture, Adapted Screenplay, or Actress. Yet there’s been some noteworthy activity over the past week. Angelina Jolie hosted an FYC event with DuVernay and the film’s lead Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (nominated for Supporting Actress in 2021 for King Richard). Today the USC Scripter nods for Adapted Screenplay had this in their top 5 along with expected heavy hitters American Fiction, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things.

Could Origin nab a screenplay mention from the Academy? That’s still a tough road. The other four titles should make the cut and Barbie is also an adapted work according to Oscar (despite that being heavily debatable). It wasn’t eligible for the USC prize due to their rules.

Where this could “come out of nowhere” as Riseborough did is in Actress. I would say Lily Gladstone in Flower Moon and Emma Stone in Poor Things are locked in. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) and Carey Mulligan (Maestro) aren’t shoo-ins, but their inclusion is expected. Then we have one slot up for grabs and hopefuls include Greta Lee (Past Lives), Margot Robbie (Barbie), and Annette Bening (Nyad). We shall see if this fresh round of campaigning puts Ellis-Taylor in the mix. I have my doubts. Then again I didn’t predict Riseborough a year ago and was proven wrong.

I do think Best Picture is a reach. At best, this might be 12th or 13th as far as possibilities. Or perhaps the power of Jolie isn’t to be underestimated. My final Oscar predictions are arriving on the blog imminently…

Oscar Predictions: To Kill a Tiger

Nisha Pahuja’s documentary To Kill a Tiger originally premiered at the Toronto Film Festival back in September of 2022 and scored stateside distribution in October of last year. The true crime saga set in a small Indian village won Best Canadian Film honors at TIFF and has picked up regional fest awards over the past few months.

With a RT rating of 100%, it was still surprising that Tiger was included among the 15 shortlisted features for Documentary Feature at the Oscars. There’s always the possibility of unexpected inclusions in this race, but I haven’t put it in the top ten contenders in recent forecasts. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Iron Claw

The Iron Claw is in theaters on December 22nd as it tells the true life tale of the Von Erich family of wrestlers. Recounting their triumphs and many tragedies, Sean Durkin writes and directs a cast including Zac Efron, Jeremy Allen White, Harris Dickinson, Maura Tierney, Holt McCallany, and Lily James.

The A24 release’s review embargo lifted today and the Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at an impressive 93%. Frankly, I’m surprised the sports biopic chose to forego screenings at festivals like Toronto and Telluride. That could’ve built awards buzz for the picture itself, as well as Efron and White.

I wonder now it it’s too late in the season for Claw to reach voters. While it did make the cut in the National Board of Review’s 10 best, it was nowhere to be seen with AFI or at the Golden Globe nominations. If Claw can manage to squeeze into the SAG nods next month (for Best Ensemble or with Efron or White individually), that could help visibility with the Academy. Right now I think the likeliest scenario is it comes up empty-handed on Oscar nom morning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Stamped from the Beginning

Documentarian Roger Ross Williams is already an Oscar winner for his short film Music by Prudence (for which he became the first African-American filmmaker to receive an Academy Award). His 2016 feature-length doc Life, Animated make the quintet in its longer form category and Williams hopes for a return to show with Stamped from the Beginning.

It’s based on the 2016 book by Ibram X. Kendi (subtitled The Definitive History of Racist Ideas in America). Out on Netflix last Friday, it played the Toronto Film Festival in September to solid notices. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%. Stamped was up for Best Feature and for Historical Documentary at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards over the weekend and went 0 for 2.

Despite the perfect meter, there are other docs with even stronger reviews. Yet I’ve had Stamped marked for a nomination in my recent predictions. Don’t be surprised if it makes the shortlist and eventual cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Next Goal Wins Box Office Prediction

On November 17th, the true life sports dramedy Next Goal Wins finally kicks it in theaters after numerous delays. Filmed about four years ago, Taika Waititi directs with Michael Fassbender (currently pulling double duty in David Fincher’s The Killer on Netflix) as a down of his luck soccer coach assigned to American Samoa. Costars include Oscar Kightley, Kaimana, David Fane, Rachel House, Beulah Koale, Will Arnett, and Elisabeth Moss. Arnett’s parts, by the way, were reshot after the studio replaced Armie Hammer with him.

Unlike the filmmaker’s Jojo Rabbit from 2019, Goal did not generate any awards buzz after it hit the festival circuit. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a blah 51% as it arrives during the increasingly crowded November season.

It certainly seems like this will get lost in the shuffle and I’m not even confident this earns $5 million for its start.

Next Goal Wins opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million

For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes Box Office Prediction

For my Trolls Band Together prediction, click here:

Trolls Band Together Box Office Prediction

For my Thanksgiving prediction, click here:

Thanksgiving Box Office Prediction

The Holdovers Box Office Prediction

After playing the festival circuit at Telluride and Toronto and generating impressive grosses in limited release, The Holdovers expands on November 10th. The dramedy reunites director Alexander Payne with his Sideways lead Paul Giamatti. The supporting cast includes Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dominic Sessa, and Carrie Preston.

With a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score, the pic is hoping to score a handful of nominations come Oscar time. This past weekend, The Holdovers posted an estimated $600,000 on 64 screens for a nearly $10k venue average.

A theater count in the 800 range is expected this frame. If The Holdovers can manage an average of around $4k, that would give it around $3 million and that’s what I’m counting on.

The Holdovers opening weekend expansion prediction: $3 million

For my The Marvels prediction, click here:

The Marvels Box Office Prediction

For my Journey to Bethlehem prediction, click here:

Journey to Bethlehem Box Office Prediction

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