Actor Tony Goldwyn goes behind the camera for Ezra which hits theaters Friday after screening at the Toronto Film Festival last fall. Bobby Cannavale headlines the family dramedy alongside Robert De Niro, Rose Byrne, William Fitzgerald, Vera Farmiga, Whoopi Goldberg, Rainn Wilson, and Goldwyn himself.
The project was met with muted buzz during its north of the border unveiling in September. Bleecker Street eventually picked up the distribution rights for what should be an unceremonious opening. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a so-so 65%. While some reviews are good, in order for it to get awards attention… well, it needs to be better than Ezra. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After playing the Toronto Film Festival in September, Mother, Couch sat around for awhile waiting for distribution. Film Movement picked it up in February and it is slated to hit screens this July. The family dramedy was written and directed by Niclas Larsson and is based a 2020 novel by Jerker Virdborg. Ellen Burstyn plays the first half of the title as she inexplicably and indefinitely sits on a department store furnishing in the second half of the title. This befuddles her children played by Ewan McGregor, Rhys Ifans, and Lara Flynn Boyle. Other costars include Taylor Russell, F. Murray Abraham, and Lake Bell.
Despite a fine cast (including previous winners Burstyn and Abraham), Couch was not a festival highlight according to most critics. The RT score is only 36% and you can count on this pic sitting out awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Chris Pine makes his directorial debut, cowrites, and stars in Poolman which wades into theaters in a limited pattern this Friday. The comedic noir has a sizable supporting cast including Annette Bening, DeWanda Wise, Stephen Tobolowsky, Clancy Brown, John Ortiz, Ray Wise, Juliet Mills, Ariana DeBose, Jennifer Jason Leigh, and Danny DeVito.
An eagerly awaited premiere at the Toronto Film Festival last fall, Poolman flopped upon its unveiling. The RT score is just 23%. It is safe to assume that the Star Trek and Wonder Woman franchise player won’t get to bring this title character back. We certainly won’t see any awards mentions. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Cinco de Mayo brings the second ranked post for the 97th Academy Awards in the six major races- Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Obviously we’re early in the process and, at the moment, a lot of speculation is simply on where certain performers will be placed (lead or supporting). Some examples: His Three Daughters from director Azazel Jacobs screened to impressive reviews at Toronto last fall and has been given a plum Netflix streaming start for this autumn. The title characters are played by Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen. The studio has a decision to make on which categories the trio are campaigned in. I am currently guesstimating that Lyonne will be lead with the other two in supporting. It is indeed a guesstimate. They could all go supporting. Coon could be an Actress play with the others in supporting. Obviously I’ll adjust as the weeks and months move along as updates are provided.
Then there’s Saoirse Ronan. The four-time nominee and no time winner has two 2024 shots. Her work in The Outrun premiered at Sundance, indicating a definite possibility for a lead Actress nod. She is also in Steve McQueen’s Blitz which sure looks like an awards hopeful on paper. Whether she’s lead or supporting in it remains to be seen. Apple TV might have better luck putting her in Supporting Actress and that’s where I have her. However, we don’t know if that’s workable at press time.
Beyond the thespians, we have head scratchers like Kevin Costner’s western epic Horizon: An American Saga. Make that Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (slated for late June) and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (arriving mid-August). Could the Dances with Wolves maker have another chance at Oscar glory? If so, which chapter books its spot on the BP list? I’m speculating that the better chance lies with the second one.
Horizon will first be seen at Cannes and that fest kicks off May 14th. Some other pictures showing there include Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, The Apprentice, Bird, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Emilia Perez, and Anora. When I publish my next update in a couple of weeks, some of them will have reviews and buzz.
Here’s how I have it shaking out now!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The End (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Bird (PR: 8) (-1)
10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 19) (+7)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Megalopolis (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Maria (PR: 16) (-1)
18. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (+4)
19. Civil War (PR: 15) (-4)
20. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)
21. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 13) (-9)
23. Dídi (PR: 10) (-13)
24. Hard Truths (PR: 23) (-1)
25. SNL 1975 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Here
Wicked
Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (E)
5. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-3)
11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (E)
12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sean Wang, Dídi
Alex Garland, Civil War
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+8)
3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
4. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting)
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 3) (-1)
5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (E)
9. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two
Adam Driver, Megalopolis
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress
3. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 3) (-7)
11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 6) (-5)
12. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-5)
13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (moved to lead Actress)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Franz Rogowski, Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
9. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (E)
11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 5) (-7)
13.Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)
In 2021, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car steered its acclaim to four Oscar nominations in Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and International Feature Film (which it won). His follow-up is the eco drama Evil Does Not Exist and it is out stateside this weekend. The cast includes Hitoshi Omika, Ryo Nishikawa, Ryuji Kosaka, and Ayaka Shibutani.
About 70 minutes shorter compared to the the lengthy Car, Evil played the festival circuit last fall including Venice and Toronto. Yet its distributor decided against a 2023 release and Japan didn’t need to decide whether to submit it as their IFF contender. Their pick Perfect Days did make the cut of nominees.
Now the nation has a ’24 choice to make. Reviews are positive at 92% on RT though not as strong as Hamaguchi’s predecessor. If Japan does select it, Evil has a shot at making the IFF quintet. I do not think it will expand beyond that like Car did. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Batman’s most notable nemesis certainly has an Oscar history. Heath Ledger’s performance as the Joker in Christopher Nolan’s 2008 sequel The Dark Knight won him a posthumous Supporting Actor statue. Eleven years later, Joaquin Phoenix took the lead Actor prize as the title character in the Todd Phillips treatment of the demented clown. The other famous cinematic Jokers are also Academy recipients: Jack Nicholson (three times for One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, Terms of Endearment, As Good as It Gets) and Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club).
No, Vera Drew is not going to follow suit. However, The People’s Joker is drawing raves from many critics. A parody of superhero pics and an exploration of transgender issues, this Joker has had a fascinating and bumpy ride to the silver screen. Unveiled at the Toronto Film Festival in 2022, the film was shelved due to trademark and character rights complications.
A year and a half later, Drew’s crowd-funded concoction is out in limited fashion domestically. She stars, directs, and cowrites with a supporting cast of unknowns and familiar faces. They include Lynn Downey, Kane Distler, David Liebe Hart, Phil Braun, Maria Bamford, Christian Calloway, Tim Heidecker, Scott Aukerman, Bob Odenkirk, and Robert Wuhl (who was reporter Alexander Knox in Tim Burton’s first Batman).
Reviews are praising the filmmaker’s use of the 21st century’s preeminent genre to document her own transformation. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 96%. This doesn’t seem like something the Academy would honor, but the Indie Spirits could be another story and perhaps even DGA could put Drew in their First-Time Director race. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Western The Dead Don’t Hurt marks Viggo Mortensen’s second directorial feature after 2020’s Falling. In addition to his behind the camera work, he’s the star, writer, coproducer, and even composed the score. It premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival and is being readied for a semi-wide May 31st theatrical bow. Vicky Krieps, acclaimed alongside Daniel Day-Lewis for 2017’s Phantom Thread, co-headlines with a supporting cast including Garret Dillahunt, Solly McLeod, and Danny Huston.
Reviews out of Canada were more respectful than gushing with an 85% RT rating. Mortensen, a two-time nominee for Eastern Promises and Captain Fantastic, is unlikely to see any of his many jobs on the project rewarded during awards season. That goes for everything in the picture. If there’s a slight chance for recognition, it would be with Krieps (whose performance is being singled out). The better odds are that The Dead is forgotten by voters a few months from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Christy Hall’s Daddio isn’t out in theaters until June 28th, but festival goers in Telluride and Toronto checked out the two-hander last fall. Dakota Johnson and Sean Penn make up the cast with the latter playing an NYC cabbie and the former as his fare. It marks the debut for the director who also scripted.
Picked up by Sony Pictures Classics, plenty of critics are hailing both performances as well as Hall’s screenplay. The RT score is 83%. I’m just not convinced this will stick with voters come nomination time. Penn, a two-time winner for Mystic River and Milk, and Johnson (yet to be in contention) could get campaigns. I wouldn’t count on them taking a ride to the 97th ceremony (though Johnson has a better shot with this over Madame Web). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Olivia Colman and Jessie Buckley both received Oscar nods for their work in 2021’s The Lost Daughter. The pair reunite in Wicked Little Letters from director Thea Sharrock. It premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival, came out in the UK in February, and makes it way to stateside locations on March 29th. Costars include Anjana Vasan, Malachi Kirby, Joanna Scanlan, Gemma Jones, and Timothy Spall.
Critics are divided on the 1920s mystery comedy which is said to be heavy on foul language coming from delightful British accents. The RT score is a so-so 64%. Despite praise for the cast, the Sony Picture Classics release is unlikely to factor into the awards race. Same goes for the Globes and BAFTA, but perhaps the studio will mount a campaign. However, it probably won’t make a %#*@$^! difference. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
On Sunday, Michael Keaton took part in a humorous bit with Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny DeVito during the 96th Academy Awards. It was related to the fact that the Twins stars were both Batman villains. In the history of the Oscars, Keaton’s sole nod is for 2014’s Birdman. He stars in his second directorial feature Knox Goes Away, which hits theaters in limited fashion Friday.
Playing a hitman diagnosed with dementia, the thriller premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival. Costars include James Marsden, Al Pacino (who had his own viral moment at the Oscars three days ago), Marcia Gay Harden, and Suzy Nakamura. The jury’s verdict from Canada months ago and in recent days is split to negative with 50% on RT. It’s safe to assume this won’t mark Keaton’s second nomination in front of the camera or behind it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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