Tag: Tonatiuh

Kiss of the Spider Woman Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (10/08): The announced theater count of just 1300 venues has me changing my prediction from $5.2 million to $2.2 million

Bill Condon (Dreamgirls, Beauty and the Beast) adapts a 1976 stage play where the first cinematic version in 1985 nabbed William Hurt an Oscar in Kiss of the Spider Woman. Out October 10th, the musical drama premiered back at Sundance early this year. Jennifer Lopez, Tonatiuh (in the Hurt role) and Diego Luna headline.

The politically charged tale generated mixed to positive notices in Utah. Rotten Tomatoes is at 82% while the Metacritic score is 60. Awards buzz lies with Lopez and some tech races only. Better word-of-mouth could have equaled stronger grosses.

I suspect this will struggle to find an audience. A theater count might alter my projection, but I’m going mid single digits.

Kiss of the Spider Woman opening weekend prediction: $2.2 million

For my Tron: Ares prediction, click here:

Tron: Ares Box Office Prediction

For my Roofman prediction, click here:

Roofman Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Kiss of the Spider Woman

Bill Condon has directed Ian McKellen to an Oscar nod for 1998’s Gods and Monsters and Eddie Murphy to a nom and Jennifer Hudson to a victory for 2006’s Dreamgirls. The headlining trio for Kiss of the Spider Woman is hoping for the same.

This is the second cinematic version of the musical stage play and it has premiered at Sundance before a TBD release date later this year. The Argentinian set drama features Jennifer Lopez, Diego Luna, and Tonatiuh in the primary roles.

Early reaction is uneven with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes and 55 on Metacritic. That’s different than some of the initial gushing social media reaction out of Park City. It begs the question of whether reviews are too mixed for it to be a Best Picture play and that is also TBD.

The cast, on the other hand, might stand stronger chances. This especially applies to Lopez and relative newcomer Tonatiuh (recently seen in Carry-On). One of the biggest surprises at the 92nd Academy Awards was J-Lo missing Supporting Actress for 2019’s Hustlers. Voters may look to rectify that snub here. As for Tonatiuh, the performer is inhabiting the same role that won William Hurt a Best Actor statue for Hector Babenco’s 1985’s first iteration. It will be interesting to see how category placement is determined by its eventual distributor as both could theoretically go lead or supporting.

Down-the-line competitions like Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design, and Sound could be on the table with a dedicated campaign. That’s something this is likely to receive. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…