Tag: Tom Hardy

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

The second post in this series is Best Supporting Actor. If you missed my write-up for Best Actress, you can access it here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race

Unlike some of the other categories… Best Picture for example… I do believe there’s a legit frontrunner in Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. He has received a quartet of significant Oscar precursor nominations thus far: the Golden Globe, the BAFTA long list, SAG, and Critics Choice. That’s in addition to a slew of critics group prizes. Most significantly, he won the Golden Globe last week. The only potential drawback to a victory is that A Real Pain is a question mark for Best Picture inclusion. Since the Academy’s BP nominees expanded to more than five (and now a set 10) starting in 2009, 14 of the 15 Supporting Actor recipients came from films nominated in the biggest race. The only exception is 2011 with Christopher Plummer from Beginners. If A Real Pain gets into the BP derby, it’ll be much simpler to project Culkin as the victor. If not, that makes him more of a soft leader in the contest.

There are two other performers with the aforementioned precursors to their credit – Yura Borisov in Anora and Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown. At this juncture, it would be bold to leave either of them off the ballot. Both come from surefire BP hopefuls.

So does Guy Pearce of The Brutalist. The veteran actor seeks his first nomination. I’ve had him consistently ranked 2nd behind Culkin for weeks. His SAG omission was a surprise, but he still looks relatively safe for inclusion.

That leaves us with one spot left to fill. Before we consider that, let’s remember a time when these gentlemen had shots for the 97th Academy Awards. In some cases, the movies didn’t turn out to be Oscar contenders or their roles weren’t substantial enough to make the cut. I speak of Tom Hardy or Michael Shannon from The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Book of Clarence, Brendan Gleeson in Joker: Folie à Deux, and Giancarlo Esposito from Megalopolis.

There’s a next level up of performances. It might not be totally impossible for them to get in, but there’s been no evidence precursor wise to realistically believe they’re a threat. This list includes Josh O’Connor from Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard and John Magaro from September 5 and Bill Skarsgård and Willem Dafoe in Nosferatu, and Drew Starkey in Queer. Same goes for Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), and Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson). Chris Hemsworth drew raves for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, but he hasn’t shown up anywhere. Same story for Dune: Part Two supporting players Javier Bardem and Austin Butler. And John Lithgow (Conclave) and Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora) are likely to cede the spotlight to their costars.

With one spot remaining, I have five contenders worthy of chatter: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Speaking of costars, it sure seemed like Wicked‘s Jonathan Bailey would be on the outside looking in while his popular cast mates Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande would get noms. Yet his unexpected SAG inclusion this week puts him in the mix. Nevertheless I have him 5th out of these 5 possibilities.

Clarence Maclin took his real life experience behind bars and became a critical darling playing himself in Sing Sing. He made the BAFTA long list and Critics Choice ballot but missed SAG and the Globes. Oscar may still remember him, but he’s currently 3rd out of these 5 possibilities.

Jeremy Strong’s work as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice has snagged BAFTA long list, the Globes, and SAG and only missed Critics Choice. An excellent argument can be made for Culkin’s Succession costar. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 5 possibilities which puts him just outside. I could see that changing when I make final picks on Wednesday.

Stanley Tucci is a dark horse for Conclave. No SAG, Globe, or Critics Choice. Just the BAFTA long list and I don’t have him predicted to make their final five. I could envision a scenario where he comes along for the ride at Oscar if they really love Conclave. He’s 4th out of these 5 possibilities.

Denzel Washington’s turn in Gladiator II was correctly called the sequel’s brightest spot. He has the BAFTA long list, Globe, and Critics Choice locked down. SAG voters, on the other hand, surprisingly ignored him. That makes a 10th acting Oscar nomination questionable. I currently have him 1st out of these 5 possibilities and that gets him in. This is mainly predicated on the fact that he’s Denzel Washington and that has worked before (see his 2017 nomination for Roman J. Israel, Esq.).

There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actress up next!

November 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans headline this weekend’s sole wide release with the Christmas action comedy Red One. It looks to dominate the charts with an eye on a lengthy holiday run. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Red One Box Office Prediction

Early word-of-mouth is a bit troubling with a 30% Rotten Tomatoes score. I don’t think it gets to the top end of its anticipated range ($40 million). A mid to high 20s output would be considered a cold opening, but families may wait until later in the month to check it out.

Holdovers should all drop a notch as we await heavy hitters like Wicked, Gladiator II, and Moana 2. Venom: The Last Dance should dip to second after three weeks atop the charts. There’s a decent chance that The Best Christmas Pageant Ever stays in third as it might have a better sophomore hold than Heretic. The Wild Robot should round out the top five and here’s how I envision it breaking down:

1. Red One

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

2. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

4. Heretic

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

5. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (November 8-10)

Tom Hardy’s loopy third take on his comic book creation was #1 for a third frame as Venom: The Last Dance repeated with $15.9 million. That’s a bit ahead of my $14.3 million projection as the total is $114 million thus far. It won’t match its two predecessors, but it has posted solid holds weekend to weekend.

Horror thriller Heretic with Hugh Grant came in right where it was forecasted in second with $11 million (I said $11.2 million). Despite strong reviews, this certainly didn’t over perform and a so-so C+ Cinemascore could mean it fades fairly quickly.

Yuletide dramedy The Best Christmas Pageant Ever was third with $10.7 million, outpacing my $8 million call. This will hope for smallish declines as the festive season is just underway.

The Wild Robot was fourth with $6.6 million, edging my $5.5 million prediction. The potential Animated Feature Oscar frontrunner has collected $130 million after seven weeks.

Smile 2 was fifth with $5.1 million (I went with $4.4 million) as the horror sequel sits at $60 million in its four weeks of play.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Critically acclaimed horror thriller Heretic and holiday family dramedy The Best Christmas Pageant Ever will both attempt to keep Venom: The Last Dance from a third weekend in first place. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

Heretic Box Office Prediction
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever Box Office Prediction

Heretic finds Hugh Grant dipping into scary territory and my low double digits estimate puts it in range with the September start of Speak No Evil. That’s likely good for second place.

I’ve got Christmas in third in the high single digits though its chances of over performing exist. I also think it might experience low declines as the holidays approach and get off to a relatively slow start.

My projections on the two openers does indeed leave Venom atop the charts for a third frame assuming it drops in the mid 40s. Holdovers The Wild Robot and Smile 2 should round out the high five and here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

2. Heretic

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

3. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever

Predicted Gross: $8 million

4. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. Smile 2

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

Box Office Results (November 1-3)

November started off in multiplexes with October product holding steadier than my forecasts. Venom: The Last Dance is the prime example as it declined only 49% in weekend #2 with $25.9 million. I was much lower at $17.3 million. That’s a bit of a surprise considering predecessor Let There Be Carnage plummeted in the mid 60s. Of course, it’s worth noting that Dance opened with nearly $40 million less than Carnage.

The Wild Robot was second with $7.4 million as it managed to rise 9% and blast past my $5 million call. The animated pic has amassed $121 million after six weeks.

Smile 2 was third with $6.7 million and that’s wider than my $5.6 million take. The horror sequel is up to $52 million after three frames.

Oscar hopeful Conclave eased a mere 24% in fourth with $5 million (I said $4.2 million) for $14 million in two outings.

Finally, Robert Zemeckis’s Here, which reunites his Forrest Gump leads Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, stumbled with critics and audiences. The fifth place showing netted $4.8 million. My prediction? $4.8 million!

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 1-3 Box Office Predictions

Robert Zemeckis reunites with his Forrest Gump leads Tom Hanks and Robin Wright some 30 years after that Best Picture recipient with the family drama Here this weekend. My detailed prediction post on the newcomer can be accessed here:

Here Box Office Prediction

Here is likely to be the sole newbie to place in the top five. Unlike Gump, there’s no awards buzz for this. A debut in the mid single digits could mean anywhere from second to fifth.

Tom Hardy’s third and reportedly final go-round in The Last Dance had a subpar start (more on that below). With a troubling B- Cinemascore, a 60 percent plus percentage drop appears inevitable. That should mean mid or high teens for an unremarkable repeat performance in 1st place.

Holdovers Smile 2, The Wild Robot, and Conclave should fill out the rest of the high five and here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million

2. Smile 2

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

3. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $5 million

4. Here

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

5. Conclave

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (October 25-27)

As mentioned, viewers were not grooving to Venom: The Last Dance. The comic book based sequel set in Sony’s Spider-Man Universe took in $51 million. That’s under my $62.3 million take and well below 2018’s Venom ($80 million) and 2021 follow-up Let There Be Carnage at $90 million. Crowds have clearly soured on the franchise.

The news wasn’t great for Smile 2 either. The horror sequel was second with $9.5 million and that represents a 59% plummet. Its 2022 predecessor only experienced an 18% decline in weekend #2. While I didn’t think that would occur, I had this pegged at $15.6 million during its follow-up frame.

The Wild Robot was third with $6.8 million compared to my $7.5 million call. The animated hit has taken in $111 million in five weeks.

Oscar hopeful Conclave with Ralph Fiennes was fourth with a better than anticipated $6.6 million. Edward Berger’s papal succession drama blew past my $4.8 million projection.

The Andrew Garfield/Florence Pugh romance We Live in Time added nearly 2000 screens and was fifth with $4.8 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as its total reached $11 million.

Finally, Terrifier 3 was sixth with $4.7 million (I said $5.4 million) for a robust $44 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions – Venom: The Last Dance

Tom Hardy and his title character alter ego are back for the third and allegedly final time when Venom: The Last Dance hits multiplexes this weekend. The only sub franchise in the Spider-Man Universe doing brisk business and producing sequels (sorry Morbius and Madame Web), Kelly Marcel directs. The supporting cast includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Juno Temple, Rhys Ifans, Peggy Lu, Alanna Ubach, and Stephen Graham.

Critics haven’t been overly kind to Hardy and company. Part 1 from 2018 managed only 30% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 35 on Metacritic. 2021 follow-up Venom: Let There Be Carnage fared better with 57% on RT and a 49 Metacritic. Dance is currently falling between those numbers with a 41% Tomato meter and 42 on MC.

Even though Hardy gives it his bonkers all in this series, don’t put money down on a Best Actor nomination unless you plan to lose. As I wrote three years ago with Carnage, Visual Effects is really the only awards play. Neither of Dance‘s predecessors nabbed a nod in VE and I wouldn’t expect this one to contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

October 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Tom Hardy is back in the threequel Venom: The Last Dance while awards hopeful Conclave also debuts Friday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the weekend’s newcomers here:

Venom: The Last Dance Box Office Prediction
Conclave Box Office Prediction

Hardy’s latest go-round as the comic book symbiote will easily dominate the charts. Yet I’m not bullish that The Last Dance will top the openings of predecessors Venom from 2018 ($80 million) and 2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($90 million). I have it in the low to mid 60s.

Conclave is expected to nab a Best Picture nomination. Edward Berger’s follow-up to All Quiet on the Western Front may have to settle for a mid single digits start that should put it in fourth or fifth place.

As for holdovers, Smile 2 may benefit from its genre in weekend #2 as horror fans seek content. The first Smile rode a wave of loud buzz to a startling 18% decline in its second frame. I’d be surprised if the sequel sees that, but mid to high 30s seems feasible. The Wild Robot and Terrifier 3 should fill out the remainder of the high five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $62.3 million

2. Smile 2

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

3. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

4. Terrifier 3

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

5. Conclave

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

Box Office Results (October 18-20)

Smile 2 was barely able to open wider than part 1 at $23 million. The original hit $22.6 million two years later. I had this making slightly more at $27 million. That’s a fair result though (as mentioned above) I wouldn’t expect this to have quite the sturdy legs of what came before.

The Wild Robot held in second with $10 million, on par with my $10.7 million forecast. The animated adventure is now north of nine digits after four weeks with $101 million.

Terrifier 3 slid from first to third with $9.3 million, in line with my $9.8 million call. The $38 million total in ten days is quite a feat considering the reported teensy $2 million price tag.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was fourth with $5 million (I went with $5.8 million) for a seven-week haul of $283 million and $300 million potentially in its domestic sights.

Finally, the Andrew Garfield/Florence Pugh rom dram We Live in Time expanded to just under 1000 venues and posted $4.1 million. I was close with $4.3 million. That brought the overall tally to $4.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Venom: The Last Dance Box Office Prediction

Tom Hardy is back in the dual roles of Eddie Brock and his sadistic otherworldly symbiote on October 25th with Venom: The Last Dance. The third entry in the franchise that began in 2018, Dance marks the directorial debut of Kelly Marcel. She co-wrote the original and solely penned the 2021 sequel Venom: Let There Be Carnage. The supporting cast includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Juno Temple, Rhys Ifans, Peggy Lu, Alanna Ubach, and Stephen Graham.

Six years back, Venom exceeded expectations with an $80 million opening weekend and $213 million total domestically. Three years later, forecasters assumed Carnage wouldn’t match up due to COVID complications. That turned out to be incorrect as the sequel amassed $90 million out of the gate. Its final stateside gross (rather remarkably) was also $213 million.

Bottom line: don’t underestimate this subsection of the Spider-Man Universe franchise. While Morbius and Madame Web struggled for eyeballs, I envision this premiering similarly to its predecessors. It may not match what came before, but low to mid 60s seems doable.

Venom: The Last Dance opening weekend prediction: $62.3 million

For my Conclave prediction, click here:

Conclave Box Office Prediction

June 21-23 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (06/20): We have yet to even see a theater count for The Exorcism so I’m downgrading my estimate from $6.2 million to $3.2 million

The Bikeriders and The Exorcism enter a marketplace in which Inside Out 2 greatly exceeded expectations last weekend. The summer box office is finally looking up, but the two new entries could struggle for exposure. My detailed prediction posts on them can be accessed here:

The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction
The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

There’s no doubt that Inside Out 2 will be perched in 1st for a second weekend. A high 30s to low 40s decline would put it in the low to mid 90s. A sequel in its third frame – Bad Boys: Ride or Die – should remain in the runner-up slot with a mid 30s to 40% ease.

Now we get to the newbies. With decent reviews and the star power of Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, and Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders could still sputter with a third place showing. I think the big question is whether it reaches double digits and I have it barely accomplishing that minor goal.

As for The Exorcism, Russell Crowe’s second horror pic in as many years dealing with the subject matter probably won’t reach the $10 million that The Pope’s Exorcist did in April of 2023.

The five spot may go to holdover Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes in its seventh week of release and here’s how I have the high five playing out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $93.6 million

2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

3. The Bikeriders

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

5. The Exorcism

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (June 14-16)

Disney/Pixar were feeling all the happy emotions as Inside Out 2 blasted past forecasts for the 2nd best animated opening of all time. That would also be the 2nd largest Pixar haul behind record holder Incredibles 2. The sequel to the 2015 Oscar winning blockbuster posted $154.2 million, way beyond my $92.4 million call. It’s also the biggest 2024 premiere thus far.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die only fell 40% after its huge start with $33.7 million, riding past my $29.8 million take. The fourth entry in the three-decade old franchise has amassed $113 million.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes actually rose 2% to $5.5 million in third, dwarfing my $3.1 million projection as this sequel’s six-week tally is $158 million.

The over performance of Inside Out 2 caused other family friendly titles to plummet. The Garfield Movie was fourth with $4.7 million (I said $6.1 million) for $78 million in four weeks. IF was fifth with $3.6 million (I said $4.9 million) for $101 million in five weeks.

Finally, The Watchers was sixth in its sophomore frame with $3.5 million compared to my $2.9 million prediction. The two-week total is $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction

Focus Features is hoping audiences wanna take a ride with The Bikeriders on June 21st. The 1960s set crime drama comes is written and directed by Jeff Nichols with a cast including Jodie Comer, Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, Michael Shannon, Mike Faist, and Norman Reedus.

The pic was first seen at Telluride nearly ten months ago and delayed from its original December release date due to the actors strike. It stands to reason that the studio wanted their leads out promoting the project which scored mostly positive reviews (84% on RT).

That star power of Elvis and Venom may not be enough to give this a wide audience. I’m not convinced this will make its reported $40 million budget back with the eventual domestic gross. That might mean a low double digits start and I’m a bit skeptical it even reaches the teens.

The Bikeriders opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million

For my The Exorcism prediction, click here:

The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Box Office Prediction

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga storms into theaters this Memorial Day weekend as it hopes to improve upon the numbers of its 2015 predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road. The fifth feature of a franchise that began in 1979, George Miller returns to the director’s chair and this is the first Max tale without Max (in the form of Mel Gibson or Tom Hardy). The prequel casts Anya Taylor-Joy in the title role that Charlize Theron played nine years back. Chris Hemsworth costars along with Alyla Browne, Tom Burke, Lachy Hulme, Nathan Jones, Josh Helman, John Howard, and Angus Sampson.

With a reported budget of nearly $170 million, Warner Bros is banking on fruitful stateside returns and buoyant international results. Early signs are encouraging. Its Cannes premiere has produced an 88% RT score. While that’s not as high as Fury, word-of-mouth should be solid.

Back in 2015, Fury grossed $45 million in its mid-May opening slot en route to $153 million domestically. Furiosa will have the benefit of a four-day report due to the holiday. Hitting $50 million is achievable from Friday to Monday. I suspect it may slightly fall under that figure.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga opening weekend prediction: $47.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Garfield Movie prediction, click here:

The Garfield Movie Box Office Prediction

For my Sight prediction, click here:

Sight Box Office Prediction