The combination of Dan Brown’s novel, Tom Hanks’s star power, and Ron Howard’s direction melds together for the third time as Inferno hits theaters next weekend. The thriller arrives a decade after The Da Vinci Code and five years after Angels & Demons. Costars for this include Felicity Jones (beginning a busy fall 2016 with A Monster Calls and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story coming up), Ben Foster, Omar Sy, and Irrfan Khan.
When Da Vinci hit theaters in the summer of 2006, it provided Hanks’s largest live-action opening of all time with $77 million and an eventual $217M domestic gross. In summer 2011, follow-up Angels couldn’t achieve those numbers, but did provide Hanks with his #2 biggest opener at $46 million and a final tally of $133M.
I don’t expect Inferno to match the numbers of either of its two predecessors. Critics haven’t been impressed. It currently stands at 23% on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, these Brown adaptations have been rather review proof (Code had 25%, Angels 37%). Many sequels in 2016 have posted middling numbers and this franchise certainly displayed a downward trend from 2006 to 2011.
Still, Hanks fans and the author’s fans should turn out to some degree. While I mentioned that this won’t approach the debuts of its aforementioned series entries, it could be in the running for its star’s third highest live-action premiere. In order to do so, it’d need to top the $35 million that Sully (out less than two months ago) achieved.
That seems right around where I expect Inferno to land opening weekend. I’ll predict it does fall a bit under that, preventing a Robert Langdon hat trick for Mr. Hanks.
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are in! As with previous weeks, I’m ranking the top 25 most likely Best Picture nominees along with top 15 in seven other big races. Come November – those numbers will dwindle to 20 and 10, respectively. You can see where each nominee has risen or fallen or stayed the same from one week ago.
Some developments… Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk is expected to screen this weekend so the buzz will be out (meaning its Oscar picture will become more clear soon). Loving took a hit this week and is out of my Best Picture predictions for the first time (enter Arrival). And the poor debut of The Birth of a Nation has knocked it out of the top 25 altogether.
**I’ll note again that just because I rank a picture, director, or actor at #1 doesn’t mean I’m predicting them to win. It just means their first on chances of a nomination. I won’t get into predicting winners until after the nominations are released.
And with that… let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 3)
3. Fences (PR: 2)
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
5. Jackie (PR: 9)
6. Lion (PR: 4)
7. Moonlight (PR: 7)
8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
9. Arrival (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities
10. Loving (PR: 8)
11. 20th Century Women (PR: 19)
12. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
13. Live by Night (PR: 13)
14. Hell or High Water (PR: 15)
15. Sully (PR: 12)
16. 13th (PR: 16)
17. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
18. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 20)
19. Miss Sloane (PR: 24)
20. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)
21. Allied (PR: 23)
22. Gold (PR: 22)
23. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Founder (PR: 21)
25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
The Birth of a Nation
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 9)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 8)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 10)
11. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 13)
12. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 12)
14. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: 11)
15. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
7. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
8. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)
9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
10. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)
12. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 14)
13. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 12)
14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 13)
15. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
7. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 14)
11. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
12. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
13. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
14. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 12)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)
3. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
4. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)
5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 5)
7. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 9)
9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 7)
10. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 13)
11. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)
12. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 14)
13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 12)
14. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 11)
15. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
6. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
7. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 11)
8. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)
9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
10. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
12. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 12)
13. Janelle Monae, Moonlight (PR: 13)
14. Sienna Miller, Live by Night (Not Ranked)
15. Guga Mbatha Raw, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Jackie (PR: 4)
4. Moonlight (PR: 3)
5. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
7. Loving (PR: 5)
8. Miss Sloane (PR: 11)
9. Toni Erdmann (PR: 15)
10. Allied (PR: 14)
11. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
12. The Lobster (PR: 10)
13. Gold (PR: 13)
14. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 8)
15. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Zootopia
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 8)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8. Live by Night (PR: 9)
9. Sully (PR: 6)
10. Elle (PR: 11)
11. Love & Friendship (PR: 12)
12. Indignation (PR: 10)
13. Certain Women (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Jungle Book (PR: 13)
15. Denial (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
A Monster Calls
Whew! And there you have it… I’ll be back at it next Thursday!
It’s Thursday and that means I’m back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. So what’s transpired over the past seven days? Quite a bit! The Girl on the Train, which opens tomorrow, was screened with very mixed critical reaction. It had been at the lower end (#24 last week) of possible Best Picture nominees, but it now appears its chances have been completely derailed. Don’t expect it to appear on the list again. I do still have Emily Blunt as a long-shot Actress possibility, but Haley Bennett’s work in Supporting Actress and an Adapted Screenplay nomination have also fallen off.
We also got a trailer for Pablo Larrain’s Jackie, which could be a contender in several races. And we received official word that Ben Affleck’s Prohibition era crime pic Live by Night will be released in limited fashion in late December, qualifying it for the Academy’s consideration.
And there was the debut at the New York Film Festival of Ana DuVernay’s race relations documentary 13th. It’s important to note that no doc has been nominated for Best Picture, so it’s got a steep hill to climb. Yet it’s possible and joins the contenders of hopefuls this week.
*A final note before we get to predictions. It is my plan throughout October to keep with listing 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 in the other races. By the first week of November, this will shift to 20 for Best Picture and ten in the others.
And with that, this week’s predictions:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 3)
4. Lion (PR: 5)
5. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
7. Moonlight (PR: 7)
8. Loving (PR: 8)
9. Jackie (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. Arrival (PR: 11)
12. Sully (PR: 12)
13. Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 13)
15. Hell or High Water (PR: 14)
16. 13th (PR: Not Ranked)
17. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 16)
18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
19. 20th Century Women (PR: 18)
20. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
21. The Founder (PR: 22)
22. Gold (PR: 21)
23. Allied (PR: 23)
24. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
The Girl on the Train
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
3. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 9)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)
8. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 7)
9. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)
11. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)
13. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)
15. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 12)
12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 10)
13. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 13)
15. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 14)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
7. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 12)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
12. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 11)
14. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Rachel Weisz, Denial
Sally Field, My Name is Doris
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
5. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)
7. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)
8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 10)
9. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 14)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 8)
12. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 7)
13. Lucas Hedges, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 11)
14. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 13)
15. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Timothy Spall, Denial
Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
It’s my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories coming your way and there has been some news since last Thursday. It was officially confirmed that Martin Scorsese’s passion project Silence will be released in December in time for awards consideration (maybe we’ll finally get a trailer soon!). There were trailers released for some high-profile contenders: Denzel Washington’s Fences and Mike Mills’s 20th Century Women.
As we do every week, I’ll rank my top 25 contenders for Best Picture along with top 15 for the directing, acting, and screenplay races (you can also see the movement from the previous week’s ranking to now).
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 4)
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
7. Moonlight (PR: 6)
8. Loving (PR: 8)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Jackie (PR: 11)
11. Arrival (PR: 12)
12. Sully (PR: 13)
13. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
14. Hell or High Water (PR: 16)
15. Live by Night (PR: 14)
16. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 15)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 19)
18. 20th Century Women (PR: 17)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 21)
20. Passengers (PR: 25)
21. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Founder (PR: 22)
23. Allied (PR: 18)
24. The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 23)
Dropped Out:
Collateral Beauty
Hacksaw Ridge
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
7. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)
8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)
10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
11. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
12. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)
14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Robert Zemeckis, Allied
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 9)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)
10. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 12)
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)
13. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 8)
14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
11. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)
12. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
14. Rachel Weisz, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Sally Field, My Name is Doris (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rooney Mara, Una
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)
7. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)
8. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
9. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 10)
10. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)
11. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)
12. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 13)
13. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
14. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
4. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)
8. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 11)
10. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
11. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 9)
12. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
13. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 10)
14. Sienna Miller, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty
Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La Land Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Jackie (PR: 4)
5. Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
8. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
9. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)
10. The Lobster (PR: 8)
11. Zootopia (PR: 11)
12. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
13. Gold (PR: 12)
14. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Collateral Beauty
Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 3)
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Lion (PR: 4)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Elle (PR: 11)
9. Sully (PR: 8)
10. Love & Friendship (PR: 12)
11. Indignation (PR: 13)
12. The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)
13. Live by Night (PR: 9)
14. The Jungle Book (PR: 15)
15. A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denial
And that’ll do it for the weekly Oscar predictions! Check back next week, folks…
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are here in the eight major categories. As with previous weeks, I’m listing the Top 25 possibilities for Best Picture and Top 15 for the other races, while showing the titles and performers I believe will currently be nominated. Plus – you can also track the movement of the rankings from the previous week to now.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 4)
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Silence (PR: 3)
5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)
6. Moonlight (PR: 5)
7. Lion (PR: 8)
8. Loving (PR: 6)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
11. Jackie (PR: 12)
12. Arrival (PR: 10)
13. Sully (PR: 14)
14. Live by Night (PR: 19)
15. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
16. Hell or High Water (PR: 15)
17. 20th Century Women (PR: 16)
18. Allied (PR: 17)
19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Collateral Beauty (PR: 22)
21. The Jungle Book (PR: 25)
22. The Founder (PR: 20)
23. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 24)
24. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 23)
25. Passengers (PR: 18)
Dropped Out:
The Girl on the Train
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 5)
7. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 10)
9. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 9)
11. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)
12. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 14)
14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (15)
15. Robert Zemeckis, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 6)
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 12)
9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)
11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
13. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
14. Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
Bryan Cranston, Wakefield
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
11. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)
12. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
14. Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 14)
15. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sally Hawkins, Maudie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
4. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
5. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 15)
7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 14)
9. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)
10. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 6)
11. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)
12. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
13. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)
14. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 12)
15. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bill Nighy, Their Finest
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 5)
5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 10)
8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
9. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 8)
10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 9)
11. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 12)
12. Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (PR: 15)
13. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 11)
15. Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Jackie (PR: 5)
5. Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
7. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
8. The Lobster (PR: 8)
9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 13)
10. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
11. Zootopia (PR: 10)
12. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
13. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 11)
14. Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rules Don’t Apply
Passengers
Miss Sloane
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 4)
4. Lion (PR: 5)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
7. Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Sully (PR: 8)
9. Live by Night (PR: 12)
10. The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)
11. Elle (PR: 10)
12. Love and Friendship (PR: 11)
13. Indignation (PR: 15)
14. Denial (PR: 13)
15. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)
And that’ll do it for my Oscar predictions this week! Until next time…
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories are here for your reading pleasure!
The Toronto Film Festival has ferreted out some would-be contenders, most notably Ewan McGregor’s American Pastoral which debuted to lackluster reviews. I had it at #9 last week for a Best Picture and it’s nowhere to be seen in the Top 25 now.
As I’ll do every week, I’m listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture along with 15 for Director, the Acting Races, and the Screenplay categories. I’m also noting the movement in the rankings among the contenders and what and who has dropped out.
Let’s go to it:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1) La Land Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Silence (PR: 3)
4) Fences (PR: 4)
5) Moonlight (PR: 5)
6) Loving (PR: 6)
7) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
8) Lion (PR: 11)
9) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10) Arrival (PR: 13)
11) Hidden Figures (PR: 15)
12) Jackie (PR: 12)
13) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
14) Sully (PR: 16)
15) Hell or High Water (PR: 18)
16) 20th Century Women (PR: 14)
17) Allied (PR: 19)
18) Passengers (PR: 17)
19) Live by Night (PR: 25)
20) The Founder (PR: 21)
21) The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
22) Collateral Beauty (PR: 23)
23) Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
24) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
25) The Jungle Book (PR: 22)
DROPPED OUT:
American Pastoral, Moana, Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 5)
5) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
7) Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
9) Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
10) Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 11)
11) Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 14)
12) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)
13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
14) Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
15) Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)
2) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
3) Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4) Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 6)
5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 8)
7) Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 9)
8) Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 4)
9) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
10) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield (PR: 11)
12) Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)
13) Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)
15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2) Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)
3) Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 2)
4) Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
9) Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)
10) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
11) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)
12) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
13) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 12)
14) Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 10)
15) Sally Hawkins, Maudie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
2) Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
4) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 1)
5) Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 14)
7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
9) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 15)
10) Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)
11) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
12) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked in Supporting)
13) Billy Nighy, Their Finest (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)
15) Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women
Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
John Legend, La La Land
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
4) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
5) Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
7) Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
8) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
9) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 5)
10) Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 14)
11) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 8)
12) Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: Not Ranked)
13) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
14) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 11)
15) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (13)
Dropped Out:
Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral
Laura Dern, The Founder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) La La Land (PR: 3)
2) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
3) Moonlight (PR: 2)
4) Loving (PR: 4)
5) Jackie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7) Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
8) The Lobster (PR: 8)
9) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
10) Zootopia (PR: 11)
11) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
12) Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 14)
13) Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Passengers (PR: 13)
15) Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Founder
Gold
Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Fences (PR: 1)
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
4) Silence (PR: 4)
5) Lion (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Arrival (PR: 8)
7) Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8) Sully (PR: 12)
9) The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)
10) Elle (PR: 11)
11) Love & Friendship (PR: 9)
12) Live by Night (PR: 13)
13) Denial (PR: 14)
14) The Jungle Book (PR: 15)
15) Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
American Pastoral
And there you have it, Oscar watchers! I’ll be back with my weekly predictions on September 22nd…
Sully is the most feel good movie in recent memory that’s likely to make you feel woefully inadequate the next time you miss the mark parallel parking. After all, it tells the remarkable story of Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger (Tom Hanks), who became an American hero after completing an improbable water landing on the Hudson River in January 2009.
Clint Eastwood’s latest delves deeper into a story that inspired millions some seven and a half years ago. It also reminds us of that not so distant period when the economy had recently plummeted and the sight of an aircraft off course in New York City was a terrifying sight. While Sully and his trusty co-pilot Jeff (Aaron Eckhart) are confident that their reaction to a bird strike that caused engine failure on takeoff was correct, the NTSB is not so sure.
The film cuts back and forth between the pilots sitting in after the crash (or water landing as Sully insists it be called since no crash occurred) hearings and brief happenings before the most famous three-minute flight ever. There’s some back story showing a young Sully earnings his wings that somehow felt like unnecessary filler in a tight 96 minute runtime. We also see the title character trying to cope with instant fame in the immediate days following (he wonders into a bar one night where there’s already a drink named after him). And we see glimpses into his married life with Laura Linney in a role where her face is constantly connected to her cell phone. Her husband is stuck in NYC until the investigation’s completion.
We see the United Airways flight from multiple angles – that of the air traffic controller, of citizens in the Big Apple, of the Coast Guard. Most thrillingly, we see the cockpit reaction and split second decisions that had to be made to save 155 lives on board. Though we know the outcome, Eastwood and his editor direct these sequences in a way that generates maximum suspense. Speaking of the director, I was able to spot a subtle Eastwood cameo in a scene where Sully runs through Times Square. Hint: his hit GranTorino happened to be the #1 movie in America when these events happened.
Hanks has long perfected the Everyman Doing Extraordinary Things role – so much so that we probably take his incredible talent for granted. He does it here again and creates another hero filled with doubts and fears. Sully is also a man who barely gets a moment to comprehend his deeds, with the media and government officials trying to monopolize the aftermath of the “Miracle on the Hudson”. To Captain Sully, he was just doing his job in an unreal set of circumstances. So does the team behind the re-telling of it.
As readers of my blog may have seen last week, I made my first initial round of Oscar predictions last week. Now… we move onto the next phase. Every Thursday, I will be giving my weekly updated Oscar predictions in the following categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.
When we get into the later part of the year, the list will expand to include other categories. Each Thursday, I will list 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 possibilities for the other races and you’ll be able to track whether the picks go up or down on a weekly basis.
Please note that if I rank something #1 in a certain race, it doesn’t mean I think it’ll win. It means I think its nomination is currently the most probable. The film festival season (especially Toronto) can and probably will alter some of these picks even next week.
Let’s get right to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1) La Land Land
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Silence
4) Fences
5) Moonlight
6) Loving
7) Manchester by the Sea
8) Nocturnal Animals
9) American Pastoral
Other Possibilities:
10) The Birth of a Nation
11) Lion
12) Jackie
13) Arrival
14) 20th Century Women
15) Hidden Figures
16) Sully
17) Passengers
18) Hell or High Water
19) Allied
20) Moana
21) The Founder
22) The Jungle Bok
23) Collateral Beauty
24) Gold
25) Live by Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Martin Scorsese, Silence
4) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
5) Denzel Washington, Fences
Other Possibilities:
6) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
7) Jeff Nichols, Loving
8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
9) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
10) Denis Villenueve, Arrival
11) Garth Davis, Lion
12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
13) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
14) Pablo Larrain, Jackie
15) Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Denzel Washington, Fences
2) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
3) Joel Edgerton, Loving
4) Michael Keaton, The Founder
5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Other Possibilities:
6) Tom Hanks, Sully
7) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
8) Ryan Gosling, La La Land
9) Dev Patel, Lion
10) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield
12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
14) Andrew Garfield, Silence
15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Emma Stone, La La Land
2) Viola Davis, Fences
3) Natalie Portman, Jackie
4) Ruth Negga, Loving
5) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Other Possibilities:
6) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals
7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle
8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
9) Amy Adams, Arrival
10) Rooney Mara, Una
11) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
12) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers
13) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
14) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
15) Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
2) Liam Neeson, Silence
3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
5) Stephen Henderson, Fences
Other Possibilities:
6) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
8) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
9) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
10) Timothy Spall, Denial
11) Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women
12) Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
13) John Legend, La La Land
14) Aaron Eckhart, Sully
15) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals
4) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold
Other Possibilities:
6) Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral
7) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
8) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
9) Nicole Kidman, Lion
10) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
11) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan
12) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
13) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty
14) Margo Martindale, The Hollars
15) Laura Dern, The Founder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Manchester by the Sea
2) Moonlight
3) La La Land
4) Loving
5) Jackie
Other Possibilities:
6) 20th Century Women
7) Hell or High Water
8) The Lobster
9) The Birth of a Nation
10) The Founder
11) Zootopia
12) Gold
13) Passengers
14) Rules Don’t Apply
15) Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Fences
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Nocturnal Animals
4) Silence
5) American Pastoral
Other Possibilities:
6) Lion
7) Hidden Figures
8) Arrival
9) Love & Friendship
10) The Girl on the Train
11) Elle
12) Sully
13) Live by Night
14) Denial
15) The Jungle Book
And that’ll do it for now, folks! My weekly updates will be back next Thursday…
For over a quarter century, I’ve known Brian De Palma’s TheBonfireoftheVanities only by its reputation. Its very, very bad reputation. The picture belongs in a category along with Heaven’sGate, Ishtar, LastActionHero, Waterworld and others as The Giant Hollywood Bomb. Some (Gate, Waterworld) have gained a better reputation as time has gone on. Bonfire, on the other hand, is barely discussed at all.
I recently had the pleasure of viewing the documentary DePalma, which is a serious treat for movie lovers. In it, the director basically talks for two hours about every one of his features in order. Some are classics or near classics (Carrie, DressedtoKill, BlowOut, Scarface,TheUntouchables, Carlito’sWay). Some are not (SnakeEyes anyone?). Others received mixed reviews upon initial reaction such as CasualtiesofWar. There’s mainstream hits like Mission: Impossible and mainstream flops like MissiontoMars. Curiosities like RaisingCain and WiseGuys.
Then there’s this. Based upon a celebrated novel by Tom Wolfe, a bulk of the Bonfire criticism came from its significant departures from its source material. Having never read it, I had the benefit of not having to compare it. Unfortunately, it didn’t help much.
After watching this for the first time, it’s easy to get why this was ballyhooed in 1990 as a misguided and miscast effort. The other thing about famous flops is that years later, it’s kind of cool for cinephiles to say it was actually pretty good. For the purposes of this post, I’m not cool.
The star power is significant. Tom Hanks is Sherman McCoy, a yuppie NYC bond trader with a socialite wife (Kim Cattrall) and a southern belle mistress named Maria (Melanie Griffith). One night out with his girlfriend, they take a wrong turn into the Bronx where Maria accidentally hits a young black male and puts him into a coma. They leave the scene but the story doesn’t end there. An intersection of political ambition, religious leader ambition, and journalistic ambition land Sherman in a world of hurt. Chronicling it all is reporter Peter Fallow, played by Bruce Willis with all of his smarm and none of his charm.
Bonfire wants so badly to be an indictment of 1980s greed and shallowness. However, it goes so far in the direction of farce that you can’t take those overtones seriously for one second. By the time a virtuous judge (Morgan Freeman, getting to demonstrate his heavenly voice in one monologue) lectures all the characters on their indecency, we already feel that the message has been browbeaten into us.
One of the biggest complaints of the book to pic adaptation was the softening of the Sherman character into a sympathetic figure (he apparently wasn’t much of one in Wolfe’s writing). While I can’t speak to that, I can only say that Hanks at least has somewhat of a character to work with instead of the caricatures he’s onscreen with. That includes Griffith’s annoying seductress and Cattrall’s nails on chalkboard work as his ultra privileged wife. It includes F. Murray Abraham, yelling his way through the role of the district attorney who wants to be Mayor and John Hancock as a sleazy and media hungry pastor.
Bonfire is an ugly film about mostly ugly people that goes for laughs in an over the top way that isn’t pretty. It was badly received in 1990 and hasn’t aged well due to some racial aspects that couldn’t fly today.
Now… having said all that, I’m glad I finally witnessed what all the mostly forgotten fuss was about. And even in this quite disappointing experience, there are De Palma touches to be appreciated including a fabulous continuous opening shot of Willis entering a party in his honor. Of all the bombs in Hollywood lore, I bet it has the most entertaining and technically impressive first five minutes of them all. Sadly, there’s still two hours that follows after that and most of it solidifies the fire that greeted it.
The Telluride Film Festival gave audiences and critics their first look at Sully, which lands (safely) in theaters Friday. This is the first paring of legends Clint Eastwood (who directs) and Tom Hanks. He plays the real life title character of the pilot credited with the Miracle on the Hudson in 2009.
Early reviews have been solid across the board. It’s no surprise that a bulk of the acclaim has gone to Hanks, who’s said to give a typically great performance. I use that term for a reason as it now appears to be easy for Oscar voters to take him for granted. Exhibit A is 2013’s CaptainPhillips, another heralded true life tale in which the Academy passed him over for Best Actor, even though I believe it to be among his finest work. If Hanks couldn’t get a nod for it, I’m skeptical he will here.
Sully stands a nice chance at connecting with moviegoers, but I don’t feel at this juncture that it’ll get much Oscar attention. This applies to Best Picture, Director, the supporting categories with costars Aaron Eckhart and Laura Linney, and even its huge lead who hasn’t been nominated in 16 years.
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