Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 7th Edition

As you may have noticed on the blog over the last few days, there’s been an influx of Oscar Watch posts up due to the Telluride and Venice Film Festivals shedding light on some contenders.

Today begins my weekly column covering the big six races (Picture, Director, the four acting categories, and both screenplay categories). It will be updated every Thursday up until nominations are announced next year (with a final predictions posts the Monday before they are revealed).

Here’s how it works: I’m listing my current predictions in each race, with 25 selections for Best Picture and 15 in the others. When we get a bit further down the road, the predictions will go to 15 Best Picture possibilities and 10 in the rest. I am indeed ranking them, but note that just because I rank something as #1, that doesn’t mean I think it will win. It just means I believe at this time that it has the current best shot at actually getting nominated. Beginning next week, you’ll see how the rankings change and alter from week to week… and change and alter they most certainly will.

So here goes with my first weekly Oscar predictions!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk

2. The Post

3. Darkest Hour

4. Mudbound

5. Call Me by Your Name

6. Battle of the Sexes

7. The Shape of Water

8. Downsizing

9. The Greatest Showman

Other Possibilities:

10. Last Flag Flying

11. Phantom Thread

12. Wonder Wheel

13. mother!

14. Detroit

15. Blade Runner 2049

16. Goodbye Christopher Robin

17. Wonderstruck

18. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

19. Coco

20. Get Out

21. Wind River

22. Lady Bird

23. Wonder Woman

24. Molly’s Game

25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post

3. Dee Rees, Mudbound

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

7. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes

8. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049

9. Alexander Payne, Downsizing

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit

12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying

13. Darren Aronofsky, mother!

14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman

15. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman

4. Tom Hanks, The Post

5. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

7. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin

8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

9. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

10. Matt Damon, Downsizing

11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe

12. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker

13. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House

14. Jeremy Renner, Wind River

15. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel Esq.

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

2. Meryl Streep, The Post

3. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

5. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Other Possibilities:

6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

7. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

8. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman

9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

11. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

12. Diane Kruger, In the Fade

13. Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

14. Isabelle Huppert, Happy End

15. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

2. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

4. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound

9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying

10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist

11. Idris Elba, Molly’s Game

12. Patrick Stewart, Logan

13. Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle

14. Will Poulter, Detroit

15. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate

2. Hong Chau, Downsizing

3. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour

4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin

7. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

8. Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman

9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled

10. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck

11. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

12. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

13. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon

14. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

15. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Post

2. Mudbound

3. Call Me by Your Name

4. Last Flag Flying

5. Molly’s Game

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck

7. You Were Never Really Here

8. Victoria and Abdul

9. The Beguiled

10. The Disaster Artist

11. Blade Runner 2049

12. Stronger

13. Wonder

14. My Cousin Rachel

15. Logan

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour

2. Battle of the Sexes

3. The Shape of Water

4. Wonder Wheel

5. Downsizing

Other Possibilities:

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

7. Get Out

8. Phantom Thread

9. Dunkirk

10. The Big Sick

11. Lady Bird

12. The Florida Project

13. mother!

14. The Greatest Showman

15. Goodbye Christopher Robin

And there you have it! My first ranked predictions for the Oscar race. Next Thursday, I’ll have the updated projections…

Todd’s Early 2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

We have now arrived at Best Actor for my earliest 2017 Oscar predictions! At first glance, this appears to be potentially loaded with heavy hitters. This includes Gary Oldman going for his first Oscar as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, Daniel Day-Lewis going for his fourth (!) in Phantom Thread, and Tom Hanks going for #3 in The Papers. We also have Hugh Jackman in what could be a show stopping role as P.T. Barnum in The Greatest Showman and Joaquin Phoenix in his already screened and acclaimed performance for You Were Never Really Here. 

This is addition to several other very recognizable names listed as possibilities. Bottom line: Best Actor looks packed in 2017 and here’s my initial projections:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

Tom Hanks, The Papers

Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

Other Possibilities:

Chadwick Boseman, Marshall

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

Matt Damon, Downsizing

Andrew Garfield, Breathe

Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin

Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House

Robert Redford, Our Souls at Night

Denzel Washington, Roman Israel Esq.

Best Director is next, folks!

Todd’s Top 10 Most Awaited Fall 2017 Movies

Well folks – summer is winding down and on the movie calendar, that means fall ushers in Oscar contenders, film festivals, and all kinds of other eagerly awaited releases! Today on the blog, I bring you my 10 most awaited pictures of the season. Getting the list down to that number wasn’t exactly easy, so I’ll cheat a bit and mention some that just “missed the cut”. They include sequels (Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Thor: Ragnarok), star vehicles like American Made with Tom Cruise and Roman Israel, Esq. with Denzel Washington, and Academy contenders like Battle of the Sexes, The Greatest Showman, Suburbicon, Darkest Hour, All the Money in the World, and The Disaster Artist.

Yet here are the ten that my personal movie calendar is most looking forward to (listed alphabetically):

Blade Runner 2049

Release Date: October 6

35 years after Ridley Scott made his landmark sci-fi pic, Sicario and Arrival director Denis Villeneuve enters this visually stunning world with Ryan Gosling, Jared Leto, and Robin Wright and Harrison Ford returning as Deckard.

Downsizing

Release Date: December 22

It may not be out until Christmas, but buzz will be out soon for this Oscar hopeful as it screens in Venice in just days. Alexander Payne’s fantastic filmography includes Election, About Schmidt, Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska. His latest is a sci-fi comedy/drama starring Matt Damon, Kristin Wiig, Christoph Waltz, Alec Baldwin, Neil Patrick Harris, Jason Sudeikis, and (get used to hearing this name) Hong Chau, who’s already garnering Supporting Actress talk.

NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME

It

Release Date: September 8

Fall essentially kicks off with this adaptation of one of Stephen King’s greatest works. Trailers for It looks scary as hell and it could compete for both biggest September debut ever and highest horror opening of all time.

Justice League

Release Date: November 17

DC’s version of The Avengers has been the subject of shaky buzz, but I’m curious to see how Batman, Aquaman, The Flash, and others meld together. Oh… there’s another one in the form of Gal Gadot’s Wonder Woman, who just happened to headline the summer’s unexpected largest domestic hit (beating out other superheroes like the Guardians and Spidey).

mother!

Release Date: September 15

Darren Aronofsky’s latest looks to be in the vein of his Oscar nominated Black Swan and that’s a very good thing. Jennifer Lawrence, Javier Bardem, Ed Harris, and Michelle Pfeiffer star and if this trailer is any indication, we’re in for something very intriguing.

Murder on the Orient Express

Release Date: November 10

Michelle Pfeiffer makes another appearance on this list as she’s part of an impressive ensemble embroiled in this adaptation of Agatha Christie’s famed novel. Kenneth Branagh directs himself in the lead as Hercule Poirot. Other familiar faces include Johnny Depp, Daisy Ridley, Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Willem Dafoe, and Josh Gad.

The Papers

Release Date: December 22

As in the Pentagon Papers and the Washington Post‘s battle with the Nixon administration to release them. You think this one has Oscar bait potential? It’s directed by Steven Spielberg and stars Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks.

NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME

Phantom Thread

Release Date: December 27

Here’s how little is really known about this project… we’re not even sure Phantom Thread is its title. What do we know? It’s master filmmaker Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest and reunites him with his There Will Be Blood star Daniel Day-Lewis.

NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME

The Shape of Water

Release Date: December 8

Visionary director Guillermo del Toro’s latest looks to be a visual and potentially dramatic winner judging from its trailer. Sally Hawkins and Michael Shannon star in this 1960s set tale of a woman’s friendship with a strange creature.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Release Date: December 15

Last, but oh so far from the least. Rian Johnson takes over directorial duties for the year’s most anticipated release with Luke Skywalker (Mark Hamill) gaining significantly more screen time and Carrie Fisher making her final bow as Princess Leia.

And there you have it, folks! Let us look forward to a hopefully glorious autumn season…

Summer 1987: The Top 10 Hits and More

As we begin the month of August and the dog days of summer, I’ll be traveling back 30, 20, and 10 years ago to seasons past giving you the top ten hits and more of that particular time frame. Today we are going all the way to 1987.

It was a simpler time back then. There were very few sequels and franchises and reboots and a good portion of the highest grossing flicks dealt with law enforcement in action type settings. Only one picture grossed over $100 million dollars. Yes, the times have changed, but what a hoot to look back at what was burning up the box office charts three decades ago. This post will also discuss some other notable flicks outside the top ten and some big ole flops.

Let’s get to it!

10. The Living Daylights

Domestic Gross: $51 million

The 15th James Bond picture kicked off the brief two picture reign of Timothy Dalton, who took over the iconic role after the late Roger Moore’s 12 year long portrayal of 007. It’s $51M gross would just surpass the $50M earnings of Moore’s swan song, 1985’s A View to a Kill. Two summers later, Dalton would star in his swan song Licence to Kill before Pierce Brosnan donned the tuxedo six years later.

9. Robocop

Domestic Gross: $53 million

Paul Verhoeven’s futuristic sci-fi action thriller nearly received the dreaded X rating upon its release. It also received critical acclaim and spawned two sequels and a 2014 remake.

8. La Bamba

Domestic Gross: $54 million

This biopic of singer Ritchie Valens starring Lou Diamond Phillips was a major summer sleeper and even earned a Golden Globe nod for Best Picture (Drama). It also featured the Los Lobos cover of the title song that was in the top ten summer songs of 1987.

7. Dragnet

Domestic Gross: $57 million

A few years before Tom Hanks was earning back to back Best Actor Oscars, he was costarring in silly remakes of 1950s cop dramas. Dragnet managed to perform well and it’s a guilty pleasure, especially Dan Aykroyd’s take on Sgt. Joe Friday (a role made famous by Jack Webb).

6. Predator

Domestic Gross: $59 million

One of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s finest action pics, Predator also kicked off an impressive three picture directorial run by John McTiernan that was followed up by Die Hard and The Hunt for Red October. This franchise is still going strong today, but nothing beats the hard edged original.

5. Dirty Dancing

Domestic Gross: $63 million

The biggest sleeper hit of the summer vaulted Patrick Swayze into super stardom and won the Oscar for Best Original Song for Bill Medley and Jennifer Warnes’s “(I’ve Had) The Time of My Life”.

4. The Witches of Eastwick

Domestic Gross: $63 million

Mad Max maker George Miller went Hollywood with this critically appreciated comedic fantasy with an all-star cast of Jack Nicholson, Cher, Susan Sarandon, and Michelle Pfeiffer.

3. Stakeout

Domestic Gross: $65 million

This was the height of the buddy cop era and it propelled this one starring Richard Dreyfuss and Emilio Estevez to big grosses. A less regarded sequel costarring Rosie O’Donnell would follow six years later.

2. The Untouchables

Domestic Gross: $76 million

Brian De Palma’s take on the classic TV series was a big-budget and highly entertaining affair headlined by Kevin Costner, Robert De Niro, Andy Garcia, and Sean Connery (who won a Supporting Actor Oscar for his work).

1. Beverly Hills Cop II

Domestic Gross: $153 million

Eddie Murphy was just about the biggest movie star in the world in summer 1987 and that’s shown here by the enormous gross of the sequel to his 1984 classic, directed by Tony Scott. A much less successful third entry would follow seven summers later after Murphy’s box office potency had waned.

And now – here’s some other notable pictures from the season:

Full Metal Jacket

Domestic Gross: $46 million

Legendary director Stanley Kubrick’s first film in seven years (since The Shining) is now considered a modern classic, especially for its unforgettable first half featuring R. Lee Ermey’s Vietnam drill sergeant.

Spaceballs

Domestic Gross: $38 million

This Mel Brooks spoof of Star Wars may not be in Blazing Saddles or Young Frankenstein territory, but it’s certainly earned quite a cult status through the last 30 years.

Adventures in Babysitting

Domestic Gross: $34 million

The directorial debut of Chris Columbus (who would go on to make Home Alone, Mrs. Doubtfire and the first two Harry Potter pics), Babysitting has also achieved cult cred in addition to its decent box office showing at the time.

The Lost Boys

Domestic Gross: $32 million

Another flick with a rabid fan base, the teen pic cast Kiefer Sutherland, Jason Patric, and Corey Feldman in a California town overrun by vampires.

And now for a couple of 1987 summer box office bombs:

Jaws IV: The Revenge

Domestic Gross: $20 million

12 summers prior, Steven Spielberg’s original was a landmark motion picture. By the time the fourth entry came around, the series had gotten terrible. It still has a 0% score on Rotten Tomatoes and Michael Caine actually missed picking up his Oscar for Hannah and Her Sisters because he was shooting this turkey.

Superman IV: The Quest for Peace

Domestic Gross: $15 million

Not a solid summer for four-quels. This served as a bad ending to a series started nine years earlier. There was a moratorium on Supes pic for the next 19 years.

Ishtar

Domestic Gross: $14 million

Considered one of the largest bombs in film history at the time, this comedy with Warren Beatty and Dustin Hoffman was a punchline for years. Its reputation has grown a bit since.

And that’s my recap folks! I’ll be back recounting summer 1997 very soon…

The Circle Box Office Prediction

Next weekend brings the techno thriller The Circle, based on a 2013 bestseller by Dave Eggers. The pic casts Emma Watson as an employee at a powerful Internet corporation where everything is not as it seems. There’s some other heavy hitters among the cast: Tom Hanks, John Boyega of the new Star Wars trilogy, Patton Oswalt and Bill Paxton in his final film appearance.

The source material in which it’s based has its fans. It also doesn’t hurt that Watson is fresh off the mega blockbuster Beauty and the Beast (and Hanks never hurts either). The Fate of the Furious should still manage a three-peat in this final April weekend, but I have a feeling The Circle has a better chance of over performing than underperforming.

I’ll predict a mid teens to high teens debut is likely.

The Circle opening weekend prediction: $16.3 million

For my How to Be a Latin Lover prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/21/how-to-be-a-latin-lover-box-office-prediction/

RIP Bill Paxton

Sadly, this morning I write a post I didn’t expect to with the news that Bill Paxton has passed away at age 61. For even casual movie fans, Paxton was a very familiar face that starred and co-starred in blockbusters such as Aliens, True Lies, Twister, and Titanic.

Upon hearing the news of his death, I began to realize just how present he’s been in my movie watching existence over the last three decades plus. I first knew of him as Chet, the bullying older brother in Weird Science. If that is a guilty pleasure pic, his performance is one of the best pleasures in it. It’s a terrific comedic performance.

Just one year later, his role in Aliens stuck out in that fantastic sequel with one-liners like “Game Over, Man!” That same year, he starred in Kathryn Bigelow’s vampire cult classic Near Dark.

All told, Mr. Paxton has about a dozen DVDs and Blu-Rays sitting on my shelf. Like I said, he was truly a part of many of our collective filmgoing experiences from the 1980s on. He was alongside Tom Cruise just three years ago in the solid Edge of Tomorrow and was a rival tabloid cameraman to Jake Gyllenhaal in my favorite picture of 2014, Nightcrawler.

His TV credits include headlining HBO’s “Big Love” and just a few weeks ago, his CBS crime drama “Training Day” (based on the 2001 Denzel Washington film) premiered. His final movie will be The Circle with Tom Hanks and Emma Watson. It opens in April.

Other notable onscreen efforts range from Predator 2 to Tombstone to A Simple Plan and U571. Today I wish to highlight a trio of lesser known titles worth seeking out:

Two are from 1992. Trespass finds him and William Sadler as firefighters who find a treasure map that pits them against drug dealers Ice Cube and Ice-T. It’s great gritty fun. One False Move is an intense crime thriller from director Carl Franklin and written by Billy Bob Thornton. Gene Siskel named it as his favorite movie of that year and it is impressive.

Paxton turned to directing himself in 2001 with Frailty, an underrated and effective thriller where the actor plays a religiously fanatical father. I just watched it again recently and it made me wish Paxton had directed more.

What Bill Paxton did leave us with is his own treasure trove of performances to enjoy. He will be missed.

Todd’s 2016 Oscar Predictions: January 12th Edition

Well, hello everyone! It’s Thursday and my first Oscar predictions of the new year have rolled in…

In the past two weeks we’ve seen the Golden Globes occur, which showered its love upon La La Land. We’ve had BAFTA and Producers Guild nominations (that one produced a surprise nod for Deadpool and puts the comic book pic in the top 20 for the firs time). And the Director Guild announced their five nominees this morning, which exactly matches my picks here. We’ve seen pictures (in my estimation) increase their chances (Arrival, Hidden Figures) and others fall a bit (Silence).

On Thursday the 19th, I will make my final round of Thursday predictions and on Sunday the 22nd – my “final” final predictions prior to the announcement on January 24th.

Here’s how I see it all right now…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 7)

5. Lion (PR: 5)

6. Fences (PR: 4)

7. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

9. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

10. Silence (PR: 6)

11. Loving (PR: 11)

12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)

13. Sully (PR: 13)

14. Jackie (PR: 14)

15. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

16. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 16)

18. Patriots Day (PR: 17)

19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)

20. Zootopia (PR: 20)

Dropped Out:

The Jungle Book

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

7. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

8. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

9. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)

7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 7)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Adam Driver, Paterson

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)

5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

7. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)

8. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)

9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

5. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

9. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)

10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)

8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)

9. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

10. Lupita Nyong’o, Queen of Katwe (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Arrival (PR: 4)

3. Lion (PR: 2)

4. Fences (PR: 3)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

7. Loving (PR: 8)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

9. Silence (PR: 5)

10. Elle (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sully

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)

5. Toni Erdmann (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

6. The Lobster (PR: 6)

7. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

8. Jackie (PR: 7)

9. Zootopia (PR: 9)

10. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

I, Daniel Blake

Best Animated Feautre

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)

3. Moana (PR: 3)

4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

5. The Little Prince (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 5)

7. Finding Dory (PR: 6)

8. Your Name (PR: 9)

9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)

10. Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

April and the Extraordinary World

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)

2. Gleason (PR: 4)

3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)

4. 13th (PR: 3)

5. Cameraperson (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. The Ivory Game (PR: 9)

7. Life, Animated (PR: 5)

8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)

9. Weiner (PR: 10)

10. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

2. The Salesman (PR: 2)

3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)

4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)

5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. The King’s Choice (PR: 5)

7. Tanna (PR: 8)

8. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: 9)

9. Paradise (PR: 7)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Arrival (PR: 4)

3. Moonlight (PR: 2)

4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

5. Silence (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities

6. Lion (PR: 6)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

9. Jackie (PR: 8)

10. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Jungle Book

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)

4. Allied (PR: 3)

5. Love & Friendship (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)

7. Silence (PR: 6)

8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)

9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Live by Night (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Alice Through the Looking Glass

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

4. Arrival (PR: 3)

5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Silence (PR: 5)

8. Lion (PR: 7)

9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)

10. Sully (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Jackie

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees

1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)

2. Deadpool (PR: 3)

3. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities

4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)

5. Suicide Squad (PR: 4)

6. The Dressmaker (PR: 6)

7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 7)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Jackie (PR: 5)

8. The BFG (PR: 9)

9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Hidden Figures 

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)

2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)

3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 3)

4. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

5. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 6)

7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 4)

8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)

9. “Faith” from Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

“I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

5. Silence (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 8)

8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)

9. Allied (PR: 6)

10. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)

5. Sully (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Arrival (PR: 6)

7. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 7)

9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Allied (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Captain America: Civil War

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)

Other Possibilties

6. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

7. Sully (PR: 6)

8. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)

9. Deadpool (PR: 10)

10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Allied 

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. The BFG (PR: 5)

7. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 10)

8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 8)

9. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 7)

10. Passengers (PR: 9)

That equates to the following number of nominations for each film:

14 Nominations

La La Land

9 Nominations

Arrival

8 Nominations

Moonlight

7 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea

6 Nominations

Lion, Hacksaw Ridge

4 Nominations

Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

3 Nominations

Hidden Figures, Hell or High Water, Jackie

2 Nominations

Captain Fantastic, Nocturnal Animals, Toni Erdmann, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Deepwater Horizon

1 Nomination

Elle, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, The Little Prince, I Am Not Your Negro, Gleason, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Cameraperson, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Allied, Love & Friendship, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange.

And that does it for now! Until next week…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 29th Edition

We have reached my final Oscar predictions post of 2016! There will be likely be four more posts: 3 Thursday editions (January 5, 12, 19) and a final one on Monday, January 23rd before the nominations are revealed on Tuesday, January 24th.

Per usual, I’m listing 20 Best Picture possibilities and ten in all the other categories.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

3. Moonlight (PR: 2)

4. Fences (PR: 6)

5. Lion (PR: 4)

6. Silence (PR: 5)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

11. Loving (PR: 11)

12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)

13. Sully (PR: 12)

14. Jackie (PR: 13)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

16. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)

17. Patriots Day (PR: 16)

18. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)

19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)

20. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gold

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 5)

7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)

9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)

7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)

10. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: 9)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

5. Meryl Streep. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)

7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

9. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

3. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

7. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)

9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)

10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)

8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 10)

10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 9)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 3)

3. Fences (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Silence (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

8. Loving (PR: 9)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

10. Sully (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Lobster (PR: 6)

7. Jackie (PR: 7)

8. Toni Erdmann (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Zootopia (PR: 8)

10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Eye in the Sky

Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)

3. Moana (PR: 3)

4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

5. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)

Other Possibilties

6. Finding Dory (PR: 5)

7. The Little Prince (PR: 7)

8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)

9. Your Name (PR: 10)

10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)

2. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)

3. 13th (PR: 2)

4. Gleason (PR: 5)

5. Life, Animated (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Cameraperson (PR: 4)

7. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)

8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)

9. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)

10. Weiner (PR: 9)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

2. The Salesman (PR: 2)

3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)

4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)

5. The King’s Choice (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 4)

7. Paradise (PR: 8)

8. Tanna (PR: 7)

9. It’s Only the End of the World (PR: 9)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Lion (PR: 5)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

8. Jackie (PR: 8)

9. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Hell or High Water

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Allied (PR: 4)

4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)

5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Silence (PR: 8)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)

8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

9. Live by Night (PR: 6)

10. Alice Through the Looking Glass (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

5. Silence (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 10)

7. Lion (PR: 5)

8. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)

9. Sully (PR: 7)

10. Jackie (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees

1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)

2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)

3. Deadpool (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

4. Suicide Squad (PR: 3)

5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 7)

6. The Dressmaker (PR: 5)

7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 6)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 4)

3. Moonlight (PR: 2)

4. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)

5. Jackie (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)

7. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

9. The BFG (PR: 9)

10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Moana

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)

2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)

3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 4)

4. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 8)

5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 3)

7. “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)

8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)

9. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 10)

10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Silence (PR: 4)

5. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)

8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)

9. Live by Night (PR: 6)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Jungle Book

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 3)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

4. Sully (PR: 4)

5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Arrival (PR: 7)

7. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)

10. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Deadpool

Doctor Strange

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Sully (PR: 7)

7. Allied (PR: 8)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 9)

9. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

10. Deadpool (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)

5. The BFG (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

7. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 8)

8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 7)

9. Passengers (PR: 10)

10. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 9)

That leaves us with the following nomination breakdown:

14 Nominations

La La Land

8 Nominations

Moonlight, Arrival

6 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea, Lion, Silence

5 Nominations

Hacksaw Ridge

4 Nominations

Fences, Jackie, Florence Foster Jenkins

3 Nominations

Hidden Figures, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

2 Nominations

20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Nocturnal Animals, Moana, Deepwater Horizon

1 Nomination

Loving, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, My Life as a Zucchini, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The King’s Choice, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Deadpool, Sing Street, Rules Don’t Apply, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange, The BFG.

That’ll do it for now. See ya with the predictions next year!

 

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 22nd Edition

We are moving closer and closer to Oscar nominations being out and there’s plenty of precursor action happening, etc…

Some of the categories, including Best Foreign Language Film (with its list whittled down to nine), Makeup and Hairstyling (seven possibles) and Visual Effects (ten possibilities). All in all, this last predictions posts before Christmas gives my take on where all the races stand as things (sort of) become a bit clearer.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Lion (PR: 6)

5. Silence (PR: 4)

6. Fences (PR: 5)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

11. Loving (PR: 11)

12. Sully (PR: 13)

13. Jackie (PR: 12)

14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

16. Patriots Day (PR: 16)

17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)

18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)

19. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Gold (PR: 20)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)

7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 7)

9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeff Nichols, Loving

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)

7. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, Gold

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

7. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 5)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

10. Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rebecca Hall, Christine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)

9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 7)

10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

7. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)

9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)

10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Lion (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Silence (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

9. Loving (PR: 8)

10. Sully (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Lobster (PR: 6)

7. Jackie (PR: 7)

8. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)

10. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

I, Daniel Blake

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)

3. Moana (PR: 3)

4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 7)

7. The Little Prince (PR: 6)

8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)

9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)

10. Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Trolls

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 2)

2. 13th (PR: 1)

3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)

4. Cameraperson (PR: 6)

5. Gleason (PR: 4)

Other Possibilties

6. Life, Animated (PR: 5)

7. Fire at Sea (PR: 9)

8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)

9. Weiner (PR: 7)

10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

2. The Salesman (PR: 3)

3. Land of Mine (PR: 4)

4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: Not Ranked)

5. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. The King’s Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Tanna (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Paradise (PR: Not Ranked)

9. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Elle

Neruda

The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki

Julieta

Ma’Rosa

The Ardennes

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Lion (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

8. Jackie (PR: 5)

9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Love &  Friendship (PR: 4)

4. Allied (PR: 3)

5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Live by Night (PR: 6)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

8. Silence (PR: 8)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

10. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)

5. Lion (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Silence (PR: 3)

7. Sully (PR: 6)

8. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jackie (PR: 10)

10. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees

1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)

3. Suicide Squad (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

4. Deadpool (PR: 5)

5. The Dressmaker (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Hail, Caesar! (PR: Not Ranked)

7. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jackie

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hacksaw Ridge

Love & Friendship

Doctor Strange

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 7)

3. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

4. Lion (PR: 2)

5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Jackie (PR: 3)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Moana (PR: 4)

9. The BFG (PR: 10)

10. The Jungle Book (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)

2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)

3. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 4)

4. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)

5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)

7. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 6)

8. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 7)

9. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 10)

10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po

“I See Victory” from Hidden Figures

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Silence (PR: 3)

5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

6. Live by Night (PR: 5)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Allied

Love & Friendship

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

3. La La Land (PR: 2)

4. Sully (PR: 4)

5. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

Allied

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)

5. Arrival (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

7. Sully (PR: 7)

8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

10. Deadpool (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The BFG (PR: 6)

7. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deepwater Horizon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sully

Star Trek Beyond

Deadpool

A Monster Calls

That gives you a current nomination breakdown as follows:

14 Nominations

La La Land

9 Nominations

Arrival

8 Nominations

Moonlight

7 Nominations

Lion

6 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea, Hacksaw Ridge

5 Nominations

Silence

4 Nominations

Fences, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

3 Nominations

Jackie, Hidden Figures, Florence Foster Jenkins

2 Nominations

Sully, 20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Moana, 13th, The Jungle Book

1 Nomination

Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Cameraperson, Gleason, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Love & Friendship, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Allied, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange. 

And there you have it! I’ll be back at it again next Thursday with my final predictions of the year!

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 15th Edition

Well, folks, it’s been two weeks since I made my last Oscar predictions and a lot has happened in that time period. Both the Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been released, in addition to more critics association bestowing of honors.

The events of the last couple of weeks have led me to this conclusion: La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea are the current hot trio for Best Picture. There was the fascinating omission of La La for a SAG Best Ensemble Award. While I still believe it’s the front runner for the Academy, if it won it would be the first picture to do so without being nominated for the SAG race since 1995’s Braveheart. 

Both SAG and Golden Globe weren’t kind to Martin Scorsese’s Silence, yet I still think it manages to get in the Picture race and nominate its director. Both organizations had their share of shocker nods – for SAG it was Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train in Actress as opposed to Annette Bening in 20th Century Women. For the Globes, it was Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s getting a nom for Nocturnal Animals in Supporting Actor instead of his more expected costar Michael Shannon.

Here’s where I have all the races standing currently. Let’s get to it:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

4. Silence (PR: 2)

5. Fences (PR: 5)

6. Lion (PR: 6)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 12)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

11. Loving (PR: 9)

12. Jackie (PR: 11)

13. Sully (PR: 13)

14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

16. Patriots Day (PR: 14)

17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

18. Live by Night (PR: 17)

19. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)

20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

The Founder

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

7. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)

4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities

6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)

7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 5)

10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)

3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities

6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)

8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Adam Driver, Silence

Liam Neeson, Silence

Stephen Henderson, Fences

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)

8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 3)

3. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. The Lobster (PR: 7)

7. Jackie (PR: 8)

8. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Moonlight and Loving – *moved to Adapted Screenplay

Patriots Day

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked, was moved from Original Screenplay)

2. Fences (PR: 1)

3. Lion (PR: 3)

4. Silence (PR: 2)

5. Arrival  (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

8. Loving (Not Ranked – previously listed in Original Screenplay)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

10. Sully (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Elle

Indignation

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 3)

3. Moana (PR: 2)

4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Little Prince (PR: 6)

7. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 8)

8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 7)

9. Trolls (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Miss Hokusai

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. 13th (PR: 1)

2. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 5)

3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)

4. Gleason (PR: 3)

5. Life, Animated (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Cameraperson (PR: 7)

7. Weiner (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 6)

9. Fire at Sea (PR: 8)

10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Miss Sharon Jones

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

2. Elle (PR: 4)

3. The Salesman (PR: 6)

4. Land of Mine (PR: 3)

5. Fire at Sea (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities

6. Neruda (PR: 10)

7. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (PR: 9)

8. Julieta (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ma’Rosa (PR: 7)

10. The Ardennes (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

A Man Called Ove

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Jackie (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities

6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Lion (PR: 7)

8. Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

10. Live by Night (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

The Jungle Book

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Allied (PR: 6)

4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. Live by Night (PR: 4)

7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

8. Silence (PR: 5)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)

10. Fences (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 6)

5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Lion (PR: 4)

8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Fences (PR: 10)

10. Jackie (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Hell or High Water

Live by Night

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 7)

3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities

4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 3)

5. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Suicide Squad (PR: 8)

7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)

9. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)

Dropped Out:

The BFG

Hidden Figures

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 2)

3. Jackie (PR: 4)

4. Moana (PR: 5)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)

7.  Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The BFG (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Arrival

Hidden Figures

Hacksaw Ridge

Manchester by the Sea

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)

2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)

3. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)

4. “Letter to the Free” from 13th (PR: 7)

5. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls (PR: 6)

7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po (PR: 4)

9. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

“Runnin” from Hidden Figures

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Jackie (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Live by Night (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Fences (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Allied (PR: 10)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)

10. Love & Friendship (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)

4. Sully (PR: 9)

5. The Jungle Book (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities

6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 8)

7. Arrival (PR: 6)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 5)

9. Passengers (PR: 10)

10. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Silence

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)

4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 7)

5. Arrival (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

7. Sully (PR: 4)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 3)

9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Passengers (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

3. Arrival (PR: 6)

4. Doctor Strange (PR: 2)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. The BFG (PR: 7)

7. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 8)

9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Monster Calls (PR: 4)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

Captain America: Civil War

That leaves the following breakdown for nominations:

14 Nominations

La La Land

9 Nominations

Arrival

7 Nominations

Moonlight

6 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea, Silence, Jackie, Hacksaw Ridge

5 Nominations

Lion

4 Nominations

Fences

3 Nominations

Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

2 Nominations

Hidden Figures, Sully, Hell or High Water, Elle, 13th, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Jungle Book, 20th Century Women, Nocturnal Animals 

1 Nomination

Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, Fire at Sea, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Rules Don’t Apply, Live by Night, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange. 

And there you have it, folks! Updated predictions will be up next Thursday. Stay tuned…