Blogger’s Note (06/19)… and it’s a significant one. Revising my estimate down from to $191.5 million to $167.5 million.
With the release of ToyStory4 next weekend, Pixar should have no problem having the top three animated openings of all time. The big question is whether or not it manages to have the largest so far. The sequel arrives nearly a quarter century after ToyStory kicked off the Disney owned Pixar phenomenon and nearly a decade since ToyStory3. The iconic characters of Woody (Tom Hanks) and Buzz (Tim Allen) return along with the vocal works of Annie Potts, Joan Cusack, Wallace Shawn, John Ratzenberger, Estelle Harris, and the late Don Rickles. New actors joining the party include Keegan-Michael Key, Jordan Peele, Tony Hale, Christina Hendricks, and Keanu Reeves. Josh Cooley makes his directorial debut.
Each chapter in this cinematic universe has seen its overall domestic gross increase with each entry. Part 3 took in $110 million in its first frame and legged out to $415 million. That predecessor currently has the fifth highest animated start ever. ToyStory4 is in line to easily top that and more.
Last summer’s Incredibles2 nabbed the record for the genre by a wide margin when it took in $182 million. Pixar also holds the #2 spot with 2016’s FindingDory with $135 million. I don’t see Woody and Buzz’s fourth go round having any issue topping that and it could definitely hit the #1 designation.
I’ll say it falls just a manages a few million over the Incredibles sequel for a historic start.
ToyStory4 opening weekend prediction: $167.5 million
As one year turns to the next in short order, it got me thinking. What are some examples of actors and directors who had remarkable calendar frames over the past few decades? The guidelines are pretty simple – the individual must have had two (and in a couple of cases, three or more) pictures that made an impact during 19(fill in the blank) or 20(fill in the blank).
And wouldn’t you know it? My ruminations quickly turned into a lengthy list that I’ve paired down to a top 25. Let’s call this Best Year’s Ever and count down from #25 to #1!
25. Channing Tatum (2012)
It was a busy year for the performer to say the least. Tatum was in Steven Soderbergh’s Haywire, but three major roles made him the star he is today. There was the hit romance TheVow, hit comedy 21JumpStreet, and his signature and semi-autobiographical title role in the summer sleeper MagicMike (also from Mr. Soderbergh).
24. John Travolta (1996)
Two years following his major comeback in PulpFiction and a year following his Golden Globe nominated lead in GetShorty, Travolta’s hot streak continued with three hits: John Woo’s action thriller BrokenArrow and fantasy dramas Phenomenon and Michael.
23. Clint Eastwood (1971)
The last two months of 1971 were fruitful for the legend. In November, he made his directorial debut with the well-reviewed psychological thriller PlayMistyforMe. This began a career of dozens of behind the camera works, including Best Picture winners Unforgiven and MillionDollarBaby. In December, Eastwood starred as DirtyHarry which spawned his lucky cop franchise.
22. Sigourney Weaver (1988)
Weaver won two Golden Globes 30 years ago – Best Actress (Drama) for GorillasintheMist and Supporting Actress for WorkingGirl. She would be nominated for two Oscars as well, but come up short. All part of a remarkable decade that included Ghostbusters and Aliens.
21. Joe Pesci (1990)
Pesci won an Oscar for his unforgettable supporting work in Martin Scorsese’s GoodFellas. That same fall, he was a burglar terrorizing Macaulay Culkin in the holiday classic HomeAlone.
20. Kevin Spacey (1995)
Current scandals aside, there’s no denying Spacey was the movie villain of 1995. He won an Academy Award as (spoiler alert!) Keyser Soze in TheUsualSuspects and as a demented serial killer in Seven. Earlier in the year, he costarred with Dustin Hoffman and Morgan Freeman in Outbreak and headlined the critically approved indie comedy SwimmingwithSharks.
19. Nicolas Cage (1997)
LeavingLasVegas awarded Cage his Oscar two years prior. By the summer of 1997, he was a full-fledged action hero with two blockbusters in the same month: ConAir and Face/Off.
18. Will Ferrell (2003)
Ferrell’s transformation from SNL favorite to movie star happened here with the spring’s OldSchool as Frank the Tank and in the winter as Buddy in Elf.
17. Morgan Freeman (1989)
The nation’s Narrator-in-Chief had a trio of significant roles nearly three decades ago – his Oscar nominated chauffeur in the Best Picture winner DrivingMissDaisy, a dedicated and stern principal in LeanonMe, and a Civil War officer in Glory.
16. Steven Soderbergh (2000)
The prolific filmmaker made two Best Picture nominees with ErinBrockovich and Traffic (he would win Best Director for the latter). Both surpassed the century mark at the box office and Julia Roberts won Best Actress for Brockovich and Benicio del Toro took Supporting Actor in Traffic.
15. Halle Berry (2001)
Ms. Berry had a revealing role in the summer action fest Swordfish. She then became the first (and thus far only) African-American to win Best Actress for Monster’sBall. This was all sandwiched between X–Men hits.
14. Hugh Jackman (2017)
Berry’s X–Men cast mate Jackman retired his Wolverine character to critical and audience admiration with Logan in the spring. At the end of the year, his musical TheGreatestShowman was an unexpected smash.
13. Leonardo DiCaprio (2002)
Five years after Titanic, the jury was still out as to whether DiCaprio’s leading man status would hold up. His roles in Martin Scorsese’s GangsofNewYork and Steven Spielberg’s CatchMeIfYouCan left little doubt. He’s been one of Hollywood’s most dependable stars since.
12. Francis Ford Coppola (1974)
In 1972, Coppola made perhaps the greatest American film of all time with TheGodfather. Two years later, its sequel came with enormous expectations and exceeded them. Like part one, it won Best Picture. As if that weren’t enough, he made another Picture nominee in ‘74 with the Gene Hackman surveillance thriller TheConversation.
11. Michael Douglas (1987)
His signature role as greedy tycoon Gordon Gekko in Oliver Stone’s WallStreet won him an Oscar and gave him one of the most famous cinematic speeches ever. He also lit up the screen in the blockbuster thriller FatalAttraction, which was the year’s second largest grosser.
10. Julia Roberts (1999)
She started the decade with a smash star making turn in PrettyWoman. Julia Roberts ended it with two romantic comedy summer $100 million plus earners: NottingHill with Hugh Grant and RunawayBride (which reunited her with Pretty costar Richard Gere). She’d win her Oscar the next year for ErinBrockovich.
9. Tom Cruise (1996)
1986 wasn’t too shabby either with TopGun and TheColorofMoney. Yet it’s a decade later that serves as Cruise’s year with the franchise starter Mission: Impossible in the summer and Cameron Crowe’s JerryMaguire, which earned Cruise a Golden Globe award and an Oscar nod. They were the third and fourth biggest hits of the year, respectively.
8. Sandra Bullock (2013)
Nearly two decades after her breakout role in Speed, Bullock had a banner 2013 alongside Melissa McCarthy in the summer comedy TheHeat and her Oscar nominated turn as a stranded astronaut in the fall’s Gravity.
7. Sylvester Stallone (1985)
Sly was the undisputed champion of the box office (not to mention sequels and Roman numerals) in 1985, notching the second and third top hits of the year behind BacktotheFuture. They were for his two signature characters with Rambo: FirstBloodPartII and RockyIV.
6. Robert Downey Jr. (2008)
A decade after all the wrong kind of headlines for his drug addiction, Downey Jr. pulled off perhaps the most impressive comeback in movie history. 2008 saw him as Tony Stark in IronMan, the film that kicked off the MCU in grand fashion. Later that summer came Ben Stiller’s TropicThunder, which earned Downey a rare Oscar nod for a comedic performance.
5. Tom Hanks (1993)
There’s more than one year to consider for Hanks… 1995 (Apollo13, ToyStory) comes to mind. Yet 1993 saw him with Meg Ryan in the now classic SleeplessinSeattle and winning an Oscar in Philadelphia as a lawyer diagnosed with AIDS. His status as a romantic and dramatic lead was solidified in a matter of months. A consecutive Academy Award followed in 1994 for ForrestGump.
4. Mel Brooks (1974)
The director managed to make two of the most beloved comedies of all time in one year… BlazingSaddles and YoungFrankenstein. The two features combined contain some of the funniest scenes ever filmed.
3. Jennifer Lawrence (2012)
Already an Oscar nominee two years prior for Winter’sBone, Lawrence’s road to superstardom was paved in 2012. In March came TheHungerGames, the year’s third top earner that spawned three sequels. In December came SilverLiningsPlaybook, where she won Best Actress.
2. Jim Carrey (1994)
In 1993, Carrey was known as a great cast member of Fox’s groundbreaking sketch show “In Living Color”. By the end of 1994, he was the most bankable comedic star in America as AceVentura: PetDetective, TheMask, and DumbandDumber all hit screens.
1. Steven Spielberg (1993)
In a list filled with lots of choices, the #1 selection was rather easy. The highest grossing filmmaker of all time’s 1993 was astonishing. Dino tale JurassicPark in the summer was a marvel technical achievement that began a franchise. At the time of its release, it became the largest grosser in history with the top opening weekend yet seen. Six months later, Holocaust epic Schindler’sList won seven Academy Awards (including Picture and for Spielberg’s direction).
I hope your New Year is your best yet, readers! Have a happy one…
My look back at the major Oscar categories from 1990 to the present arrives at Best Actor today! If you missed my posts covering Actress and the Supporting races, you can find them here:
As with those previous entries, I am picking the three least surprising winners of the last 28 years, along with the three biggest upsets. Additionally, you’ll see my personal picks for strongest and weakest fields overall.
As a primer, here are the winners from 1990 to now:
1990 – Jeremy Irons, ReversalofFortune
1991 – Anthony Hopkins, TheSilenceoftheLambs
1992 – Al Pacino, ScentofaWoman
1993 – Tom Hanks, Philadelphia
1994 – Tom Hanks, ForrestGump
1995 – Nicolas Cage, LeavingLasVegas
1996 – Geoffrey Rush, Shine
1997 – Jack Nicholson, AsGoodAsItGets
1998 – Roberto Benigni, LifeisBeautiful
1999 – Kevin Spacey, AmericanBeauty
2000 – Russell Crowe, Gladiator
2001 – Denzel Washington, TrainingDay
2002 – Adrien Brody, ThePianist
2003 – Sean Penn, MysticRiver
2004 – Jamie Foxx, Ray
2005 – Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
2006 – Forest Whitaker, TheLastKingofScotland
2007 – Daniel Day-Lewis, ThereWillBeBlood
2008 – Sean Penn, Milk
2009 – Jeff Bridges, CrazyHeart
2010 – Colin Firth, TheKing’sSpeech
2011 – Jean Dujardin, TheArtist
2012 – Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
2013 – Matthew McConaughey, DallasBuyersClub
2014 – Eddie Redmayne, TheTheoryofEverything
2015 – Leonardo DiCaprio, TheRevenant
2016 – Casey Affleck, ManchesterbytheSea
2017 – Gary Oldman, DarkestHour
Let’s begin with the three that I’m deeming as the non-surprise winners. Whittling this down to that number was a challenge. The double wins by Hanks and Penn and even last year’s winner Oldman could’ve easily been named here, too. Here goes…
3. Al Pacino, ScentofaWoman
The legendary thespian was 0 for 6 when it came to nominations and wins entering 1992. He picked up his 7th and 8th nods that year with his supporting role in GlengarryGlenRoss and lead role as a blind former colonel in this Martin Brest directed drama. By Oscar night, it was clear he was finally going to make that trip to the podium.
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, TheRevenant
Like Pacino, DiCaprio had been an Academy bridesmaid before… four times. His fifth nod for TheRevenant guaranteed he’d finally be a winner against weak competition (more on that below).
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
I could have named the Method actor’s victory in 2007 for ThereWillBeBlood as well, but his win five years later as the nation’s 16th President edges it out. From the moment the Steven Spielberg project was announced, Day-Lewis was the odds on favorite and it never changed.
Now – my selections for the upsets:
3. Anthony Hopkins, TheSilenceoftheLambs
While it might seem an obvious win nearly 30 years later, Nick Nolte’s work in ThePrinceofTides had nabbed him the Golden Globe. Additionally, there was some controversy about Sir Anthony’s inclusion in the lead race due to his approximate 16 minutes of screen time. This is truly evidence of a performance so towering that it couldn’t be ignored.
2. Roberto Benigni, LifeisBeautiful
The Italian director/writer/actor was an underdog against competition that included Nick Nolte (once again) for Affliction and Ian McKellen in GodsandMonsters. Mr. Benigni seemed a bit shocked himself when his name was called, as he famously bounded exuberantly to the stage.
1. Adrien Brody, ThePianist
The smart money in 2002 was with Jack Nicholson in AboutSchmidt or Daniel Day-Lewis in GangsofNewYork. Brody’s win was pretty shocking, as was the giant smooch he planted on presenter Halle Berry.
When it comes to overall fields, I’m going recent history with both. For strongest, I’ll give it to 2012. That’s the year Day-Lewis won for Lincoln. All other nominees were rock solid as well with Bradley Cooper (SilverLiningsPlaybook), Hugh Jackman (LesMiserables), Joaquin Phoenix (TheMaster), and Denzel Washington (Flight).
For weakest, I’m picking 2015. This is the aforementioned year of DiCaprio’s overdue win. The rest of the field, however, was a bit lacking. It consisted of Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Matt Damon (TheMartian), Michael Fassbender (SteveJobs), and Eddie Redmayne (TheDanishGirl).
And there’s your Actor look back, folks! Keep an eye out for Best Picture soon as the final post in this series…
Continuing with my recaps of the movie summers from 30, 20, and 10 years ago – we arrive at 1998. If you missed my post recounting the 1988 season, you can find it right here:
1998 was a rather astonishingly sequel lite summer with only one making up the top ten moneymakers. And while 2018 will be known for its Avengers phenomenon, it was a much different story with Avengers two decades ago.
Behold my synopsis of the top 10 hits, along with other notables and flops:
10. The Mask of Zorro
Domestic Gross: $94 million
He may be playing Pablo Picasso on TV now, but Antonio Banderas had a significant hit (alongside Catherine Zeta-Jones and Anthony Hopkins) in this tale of the famed swashbuckler. A less successful sequel would follow in 2005.
9. Mulan
Domestic Gross: $120 million
Disney’s 36th animated feature (with a voice assist from Eddie Murphy) didn’t reach the heights of titles like Aladdin or The Lion King, but the Mouse Factory has already commissioned a live-action version slated for 2020.
8. The Truman Show
Domestic Gross: $125 million
Jim Carrey’s first major big screen foray outside of zany comedy, Peter Weir’s reality show pic garnered critical acclaim for the film itself and the star’s performance.
7. Lethal Weapon 4
Domestic Gross: $130 million
The final teaming of Mel Gibson and Danny Glover (with Chris Rock and Jet Li joining the mix) made slightly less than part 3 and was generally considered rather mediocre, especially considering the heights that the franchise started from.
6. Godzilla
Domestic Gross: $136 million
Coming off the massive success of Independence Day, Roland Emmerich’s tale of the giant green monster was expected to possibly be summer’s biggest hit. It came in well below expectations with critics and audiences. A better regarded version arrived in 2014.
5. Deep Impact
Domestic Gross: $140 million
Our first asteroid disaster flick on the list came from Mimi Leder with a cast including Tea Leoni, Elijah Wood, and Robert Duvall. Moviegoers loved their asteroids 20 years ago.
4. Dr. Dolittle
Domestic Gross: $144 million
Eddie Murphy was still in popular family guy mode with this remake of the Rex Harrison animal tale. A sequel would follow in 2001.
3. There’s Something About Mary
Domestic Gross: $176 million
The Farrelly Brothers had the comedic smash of the summer in this effort that made Ben Stiller a huge star and had a showcase role for Cameron Diaz’s talents.
2. Armageddon
Domestic Gross: $201 million
Our second asteroid pic (this one from Michael Bay) comes with Bruce Willis, Ben Affleck, and Liv Tyler… and an Aerosmith ballad that played all season long.
1. Saving Private Ryan
Domestic Gross: $216 million
Steven Spielberg’s acclaimed World War II drama with Tom Hanks has one of the most intense first scenes in cinematic history. It was considered the Oscar front-runner until it lost in an upset to Shakespeare in Love.
And now for some other notable films:
The X-Files
Domestic Gross: $83 million
Bringing David Duchovny and Gillian Anderson’s alien themed FOX TV show to the big screen turned out to be a profitable venture. An ignored sequel would follow 10 years later.
Blade
Domestic Gross: $70 million
The vampire-centric Wesley Snipes flick spawned two sequels and major cult status.
Out of Sight
Domestic Gross: $37 million
Its box office performance was middling, but Steven Soderbergh’s romantic crime pic showed George Clooney and Jennifer Lopez at their best. Critics dug it.
Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas
Domestic Gross: $10 million
Not a success at the time, but Terry Gilliam’s wild ride featuring Johnny Depp as Hunter S. Thompson created a serious following in subsequent years.
And now for some flops:
Six Days, Seven Nights
Domestic Gross: $74 million
Harrison Ford was flying high off the success of Air Force One one summer earlier, but audiences and reviewers weren’t as kind to this action comedy with Anne Heche.
Snake Eyes
Domestic Gross: $55 million
Likewise, Nicolas Cage experienced a trilogy of mega hits during the two previous summers with The Rock, Con Air, and Face/Off. This one from Brian De Palma didn’t impress nearly as much.
The Avengers
Domestic Gross: $23 million
Not THOSE Avengers, ladies and gents. This big screen adaptation of the 1960s TV series with Ralph Fiennes, Uma Thurman, and Sean Connery landed with a thud in August. No sequels here.
54
Domestic Gross: $16 million
Mike Myers was coming off a little something called Austin Powers: International Man of Mystery when this pic about the famed NYC nightclub opened. Critics weren’t kind and crowds didn’t turn up.
BASEketball
Domestic Gross: $7 million
Trey Parker and Matt Stone rarely create something that isn’t massively successful – like “South Park” and The Book of Mormon. This sports comedy is the rare exception, though it has developed a following since.
And there you have it – the summer of 1998! Look for 2008 shortly…
We are in the midst of the blockbuster summer season of 2018. As I do every year on the blog, I’m recounting the summers of 30, 20, and 10 years ago with the top 10 moneymakers and other notable features and flops. We begin with 1988 and unlike the current 2018 crop that is dominated by big-budget sequels, it was surprising to find that there were a host of follow-up flops three decades ago. Sequels make up just 20% of the top ten here.
The seasons of 1998 and 2008 will be posted shortly, but here’s what what was happening 30 years ago at the cinema:
10. Bull Durham
Domestic Gross: $50 million
Writer/director Ron Shelton’s sports comedy came as Kevin Costner was experiencing a string of hits in the late 80s and early 90s. Considered one of the finest sports films ever made, it also featured showcase roles for Susan Sarandon and Tim Robbins and was nominated for an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay.
9. Rambo III
Domestic Gross: $53 million
The third go-round for Sylvester Stallone as John Rambo earned only a third of what Rambo: First Blood Part II achieved three summers prior and received mostly negative reviews. The star would revise the character 20 years later in Rambo.
8. Willow
Domestic Gross: $57 million
Ron Howard’s fantasy adventure (with a story conceived by George Lucas) was considered only a moderate success at time of its release and critical notices were mixed. It has since gone on to garner cult status.
7. A Fish Called Wanda
Domestic Gross: $62 million
This acclaimed heist comedy was an unexpected critical and audience darling with a screenplay from the legendary John Cleese. Both he and “Monty Python” cohort Michael Palin starred alongside Jamie Lee Curtis and Kevin Kline, in a rare comedic role that won an Oscar for Supporting Actor. Nine years later, the cast reunited for the less regarded Fierce Creatures.
6. Cocktail
Domestic Gross: $78 million
Coming off his iconic role in Top Gun two years earlier, Tom Cruise propelled this bartender tale to major success despite poor reviews (even Cruise admitted it wasn’t so good years later). It did provide The Beach Boys with a big comeback hit in the form of “Kokomo”.
5. Die Hard
Domestic Gross: $83 million
It might be #5 on the list, but Die Hard is easily the most influential film of the summer of ’88. Rightfully considered the quintessential action movie, it served as a springboard for Bruce Willis’s film career and gave us an unforgettable villain in Alan Rickman’s Hans Gruber. Four sequels and numerous knock-offs would follow.
4. Crocodile Dundee II
Domestic Gross: $109 million
Paul Hogan’s Aussie creation struck box office gold in 1986 when the first Dundee made $174 million and was an unexpected smash. The sequel didn’t measure up to the first commercially or critically, but it still managed to edge past the $100 million mark.
3. Big
Domestic Gross: $114 million
Tom Hanks earned his first Oscar nomination (several would follow) for Penny Marshall’s classic comedy about a teenager wanting to be an adult. It also earned an Original Screenplay nomination.
2. Coming to America
Domestic Gross: $128 million
Eddie Murphy was about the biggest box office draw in the world circa 1988 and this serves as one of his classics. There’s been long rumored plans for a sequel, but whether or not it ever materializes is a legit question three decades later.
1. Who Framed Roger Rabbit
Domestic Gross: $156 million
This landmark blending of live-action and animation from director Robert Zemeckis combined beloved characters from the Warner Bros and Disney catalogs, winning three technical Oscars. The title character would appear in some animated shorts in the following years, but a traditional sequel surprisingly never followed.
And now for some other notable features from the summer:
Young Guns
Domestic Gross: $45 million
This Western about Billy the Kid and his gang cast many of the hot young stars of the day, including Emilio Estevez, Kiefer Sutherland, Lou Diamond Phillips, and Charlie Sheen. A sequel would follow two years later.
Midnight Run
Domestic Gross: $38 million
Serving as Robert De Niro’s first major foray into comedy (blended with action), Midnight Run found him brilliantly cast alongside Charles Grodin in this effort from Beverly Hills Cop director Martin Brest. Its status has only grown in subsequent years.
And now we arrive at some of the pictures that didn’t fare so well and we have 5 sequels that couldn’t match the potency of what came before them:
The Dead Pool
Domestic Gross: $37 million
Clint Eastwood’s fifth and final appearance as Dirty Harry was met with mixed reviews and lackluster box office. It’s got perhaps the best supporting cast of the lot, however, including Patricia Clarkson, Liam Neeson, and Jim Carrey a few years before he became a phenomenon.
Big Top Pee-Wee
Domestic Gross: $15 million
While Pee-Wee’s Big Adventure earned $40 million and introduced moviegoers to Tim Burton, this sequel underwhelmed. Star Paul Reubens would, um, pick up notoriety three years later for another experience in a movie theater.
Arthur 2: On the Rocks
Domestic Gross: $14 million
The 1981 original earned Academy Award nominations and a fantastic $95 million domestic haul. By the time the sequel followed seven years later, audiences weren’t interested in the comedy starring Dudley Moore and Liza Minnelli.
Poltergeist III
Domestic Gross: $14 million
The franchise began in 1982 with acclaim and huge dollars. A sequel diminished those returns and by the time part 3 hit screens, crowds were tuned out. Tragically, Heather O’Rourke (who famously played Carol Anne) died months before its release at the age of 12.
Caddyshack II
Domestic Gross: $11 million
Part 1 was a comedy classic. Part 2 was anything but. Chevy Chase was the only returning cast member to return and there was no repeating the magic with Jackie Mason, Robert Stack, Randy Quaid, and Dan Aykroyd.
And finally…
Mac and Me
Domestic Gross: $6 million
A notorious bomb, this E.T. rip-off received plenty of ink on account of its awfulness. There is a silver lining, however, as Paul Rudd has hilariously incorporated it into segments on Conan O’Brien’s show over the years.
And there you have the summer of 1988 in a nutshell! I’ll be back with 1998 soon…
Opening in limited fashion this weekend is one of the year’s more hotly anticipated documentaries – Won’tYouBeMyNeighbor? Focused on the life of Mister Rogers, whose public access children’s program spanned decades and inspired generations of youngsters, it premiered in January at the Sundance Film Festival to wide acclaim. Its Rotten Tomatoes score sits at 97% currently.
The Oscar pedigree for it is evident as its director Morgan Neville won Best Documentary Feature in 2014 for 20FeetFromStardom. Neighbor, like the recent RBG, is the rare doc that has legitimate box office breakout potential due its familiar subject matter. That said, the documentary branch of the Academy is an unpredictable lot. Last year’s Jane, for instance, covered a much appreciated figure, was looked at as a front-runner in some circles, and ended up without a nomination.
Yet don’t surprised to find this on the short list of inclusions come next year. Interestingly, the story of Rogers could find itself in the Oscar mix for two years in a row. 2019 brings YouAreMy Friend, a biopic starring Tom Hanks as the sweater clad host.
If you could envision a picture made in a factory for Best Picture consideration, The Post might be it. Two-time Oscar-winning director Steven Spielberg? Check. Three-time winner and most nominated actress ever Meryl Streep? Yep. Two-time recipient Tom Hanks? Indeed. A historical context that has connections to what’s happening today? Present. Luckily, the film itself manages to be an often engrossing experience that is (surprise) quite well-acted and directed. Does it match the high mark of some other journalistic features that cover similar ground? Not in my view.
The Post opens with State Department analyst Daniel Ellsberg (Matthew Rhys) in Vietnam in the late 1960s and his growing realization that the conflict has no end in sight. Ellsberg has access to classified government docs and by the early 1970s, he wishes to expose the top secrets of the U.S. Government’s involvement overseas from the Truman through Nixon administrations. He first leaks some information to the vaunted New York Times, but attention soon turns to The Washington Post, which at this juncture is considered more of a hometown paper. That paper is run by Katharine Graham (Streep) and she’s the first woman to run such an operation. She inherited the Post after the deaths of her father and husband. While the film’s attention is mostly centered on the impending giant story that they may break, we also witness the difficulties Graham experiences as a woman working in a man’s world. This provides some of the best moments and more examples of Streep’s limitless abilities as a performer.
Graham runs in the D.C. social circles and she’s close with many of the figures her journalists look to expose, including Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara (Bruce Greenwood). The paper’s editor is Ben Bradlee (Hanks), a hard charging type who doesn’t think of the corporate exposure landmines that go along with spilling these secrets. Graham must do so because her business is about to go up for public offering and President Nixon isn’t exactly warm-hearted when dealing with media types.
Therein lies the drama with The Post as Graham and Bradlee struggle to do the right thing. The pic clearly reveres it main subjects and the virtuous acts they took. It also adores the bygone and pre-digitized era of the news. There are lovingly crafted shots of the newspapers being developed for print and frenzied reporters furiously typing their copy to meet their deadline. We also witness occasional spurts of dialogue that border on preachy. Screenwriters Liz Hannah and Josh Singer craft a couple of monologues that could warrant a bright red MESSAGE signal across the screen while its actors are speaking.
That said, the story itself is inherently fascinating and it’s told in a well-crafted manner. There are plenty of actors who pop up in supporting roles, including a very nice performance from Bob Odenkirk as an editor who goes way back with Ellsberg and is instrumental in the paper’s expose. This is primarily the Streep and Hanks show, however. And in case you didn’t know, the two can act. Hanks is playing a part made most famous by Jason Robards in All the President’s Men (for which he won a gold statue). It is that movie that you may wish to draw comparisons with. The Post isn’t in that league, but few reach that level of greatness. The Post, rather,is exceedingly competent.
For over four months, I have been making weekly Oscar predictions and it all comes down to this Tuesday morning when they are at last revealed. These are my FINAL predictions along with a first and second alternate in each category.
Tuesday on the blog – I’ll have results on how I did with reaction to the nominations in general. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1st Alternate – I, Tonya
2nd Alternate – The Big Sick
Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
1st Alternate – Steven Spielberg, The Post
2nd Alternate – Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
1st Alternate – Tom Hanks, The Post
2nd Alternate – Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
1st Alternate – Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
2nd Alternate – Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1st Alternate – Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name
2nd Alternate – Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
1st Alternate – Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
2nd Alternate – Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
Wonder
1st Alternate – Victoria and Abdul
2nd Alternate – Wonderstruck
Best Original Screenplay
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1st Alternate – The Big Sick
2nd Alternate – The Florida Project
Best Animated Feature
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
The Girl Without Hands
Loving Vincent
1st Alternate – The LEGO Batman Movie
2nd Alternate – Cars 3
Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
The Insult
In the Fade
Loveless
1st Alternate – The Square
2nd Alternate – The Wound
Best Documentary Feature
City of Ghosts
Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
Long Strange Trip
1st Alternate – Strong Island
2nd Alternate – Last Men in Aleppo
Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1st Alternate – The Post
2nd Alternate – Get Out
Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Post
The Shape of Water
1st Alternate – Darkest Hour
2nd Alternate – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Production Design
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
1st Alternate – Beauty and the Beast
2nd Alternate – Murder on the Orient Express
Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Murder on the Orient Express
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
1st Alternate – The Post
2nd Alternate – The Beguiled
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder
1st Alternate – Bright
2nd Alternate – Victoria and Abdul
Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
1st Alternate – Okja
2nd Alternate – Kong: Skull Island
Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
1st Alternate – The Shape of Water
2nd Alternate – The Greatest Showman
Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
The Shape of Water
1st Alternate – Star Wars: The Lat Jedi
2nd Alternate – Beauty and the Beast
Best Original Score
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
1st Alternate – Victoria and Abdul
2nd Alternate – Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Original Song
“It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit
“Mighty River” from Mudbound
“Remember Me” from Coco
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
1st Alternate – “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast
2nd Alternate – “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name
And that leaves the final predicted list of nominations for each picture:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, I, Tonya, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Get Out, Phantom Thread, Darkest Hour, The Post, Mudbound
3 Nominations
Baby Driver
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Wonder, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes, The Greatest Showman
1 Nomination
Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Beauty and the Beast, Murder on the Orient Express, Victoria and Abdul, Detroit, Marshall, The Breadwinner, Ferdinand, The Girl Without Hands, Loving Vincent, A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, The Insult, In the Fade, Loveless, City of Ghosts, Faces Places, Icarus, Jane, Long Strange Trip
And there you have it, folks! I’ll have reaction up Tuesday…
We have arrived at my penultimate weekly Oscar predictions. With the Oscar nods arriving in 8 days, I will be making my final estimates next Monday. And as we get closer and closer to actually knowing the nominees, there are some notable changes today:
Jordan Peele has at last entered my predicted five in the Director category, replacing Steven Spielberg.
Daniel Kaluuya is in Best Actor for the first time, replacing Tom Hanks.
Frances McDormand has taken the #1 spot in Actress over Saoirse Ronan.
In more good news for ThreeBillboards, Sam Rockwell has reached the top spot in Supporting Actor over Willem Dafoe.
Octavia Spencer has replaced Holly Hunter in Supporting Actress.
You can read it all here with those last estimates coming in one week!
Two major developments since last week’s Oscar predictions as the Golden Globes happened and the Production Guild Award nominations came out. Combined with other precursor activity, one thing has become clear to me:
It was time to remove Dunkirk from its months long perch in the #1 slot. It’s fallen to #4 and we finally have a new #1 – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Truth be told, I could have just as easily put The Shape of Water or Lady Bird in that spot. It’s a close race, folks!
Guillermo del Toro replaces Christopher Nolan in the top spot for director, as does Allison Janney in Supporting Actress over Laurie Metcalf.
We are only 15 days away from nominations and here’s my take at this moment:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
3. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
4. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
5. The Post (PR: 3)
6. Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
9. The Big Sick (PR: 12)
10. Mudbound (PR: 11)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 13)
12. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
13. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
14. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wonder Woman (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 4)
4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
5. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 8)
7. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 6)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)
7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 9)
9. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 8)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)
9. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 7)
8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
9. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
10. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
7. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 8)
8. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Wonder (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)
9. Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Beguiled (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. Get Out (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. The Big Sick (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
7. The Post (PR: 6)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
10. Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 5)
5. Ferdinand (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Cars 3 (PR: 4)
8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)
9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 9)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)
2. Loveless (PR: 2)
3. The Insult (PR: 4)
4. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 3)
5. In the Fade (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Square (PR: 5)
7. The Wound (PR: 7)
8. On Body and Soul (PR: 9)
9. Felicite (PR: 8)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 2)
3. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
5. Icarus (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Strong Island (PR: 4)
7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: 7)
8. Human Flow (PR: Not Ranked)
9. LA 92 (PR: 8)
10. Ex Libris – The New York Public Library (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Chasing Coral
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. The Post (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: 9)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 7)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
9. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hostiles
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)
7. The Post (PR: 7)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
9. Downsizing (PR: 5)
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Post (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
10. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Wonder (PR: 2)
3. I, Tonya (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
4. Bright (PR: 3)
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 5)
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Okja (PR: 6)
7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)
8. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 7)
9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)
10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
7. Coco (PR: 8)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
9. Detroit (PR: 10)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
8. Coco (PR: 8)
9. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
3. The Post (PR: 4)
4. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
10. Wonderstruck (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
2. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
3. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)
4. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 5)
5. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
7. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 8)
8. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 9)
10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)
And that leaves the following nomination breakdown for each picture –
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
8 Nominations
The Post
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, I, Tonya, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread
3 Nominations
Mudbound
2 Nominations
Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, The Big Sick, Wonder Coco, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Baby Driver, The Greatest Showman
1 Nomination
Downsizing, Molly’s Game, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Ferdinand, Foxtrot, Loveless, The Insult, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, Jane, Faces Places, Long Strange Trip, City of Ghosts, Icarus
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