Last year, a late breaking Oscar campaign for Andrea Riseborough’s performance in the micro-budgeted drama To Leslie resulted in success. With various celebrities holding events touting her work, Riseborough nabbed one of the five slots in Actress (over favored competitors like Danielle Deadwyler in Till and Viola Davis in The Woman King). This resulted in both controversy and kudos for a unique way to campaign for gold hardware.
Now for the 96th Academy Awards, we have another midnight hour title raising eyebrows in the form of Selma director Ana DuVernay’s Origin. Based on Isabel Wilkerson’s nonfiction novel, the race relations drama premiered on the festival circuit early in the fall at Venice and Toronto. Some reviews were raves, but not all. An 80% Rotten Tomatoes score resulted and Neon picked up distribution rights. Its wide release comes this Friday.
That timing could come in handy. However, Origin hasn’t been seen as a true threat for Picture, Adapted Screenplay, or Actress. Yet there’s been some noteworthy activity over the past week. Angelina Jolie hosted an FYC event with DuVernay and the film’s lead Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (nominated for Supporting Actress in 2021 for King Richard). Today the USC Scripter nods for Adapted Screenplay had this in their top 5 along with expected heavy hitters American Fiction, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things.
Could Origin nab a screenplay mention from the Academy? That’s still a tough road. The other four titles should make the cut and Barbie is also an adapted work according to Oscar (despite that being heavily debatable). It wasn’t eligible for the USC prize due to their rules.
Where this could “come out of nowhere” as Riseborough did is in Actress. I would say Lily Gladstone in Flower Moon and Emma Stone in Poor Things are locked in. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) and Carey Mulligan (Maestro) aren’t shoo-ins, but their inclusion is expected. Then we have one slot up for grabs and hopefuls include Greta Lee (Past Lives), Margot Robbie (Barbie), and Annette Bening (Nyad). We shall see if this fresh round of campaigning puts Ellis-Taylor in the mix. I have my doubts. Then again I didn’t predict Riseborough a year ago and was proven wrong.
I do think Best Picture is a reach. At best, this might be 12th or 13th as far as possibilities. Or perhaps the power of Jolie isn’t to be underestimated. My final Oscar predictions are arriving on the blog imminently…
The September triumvirate of high profile festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) is in the rearview mirror. The New York Film Festival is happening now though there’s not a huge number of pictures that didn’t already premiere at earlier fests. One that did – Garth Davis’s Foe – proved to be an awards bust. With a 21% Rotten Tomatoes score, you can assume this is the last time it will be mentioned in these prediction posts.
Truth be told, there are just a few Oscar bait titles left to screen. They include The Color Purple, Napoleon, Disney’s Wish, The Iron Claw, and Wonka (in some tech races).
I thought this might be an opportune time to tell you how my 2022 predictions from this same time of year stood up. Last year, when I did forecasts for the 95th Academy Awards on October 5th, it yielded an impressive 8 of the eventual nominees (winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking). The other two nominees (Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis) were both listed in other possibilities.
For Best Director, I correctly called three of the five (winners the Daniels for Everything Everywhere, Todd Field for Tár, Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans). Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Rüben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) were identified as other possibilities.
The #3 also applied to Actress as I named winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everything) along with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). Ana de Armas (Blonde) was tagged under other possibilities while Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) was not yet on the radar screen. Same goes for Best Actor (3) where I had winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Bill Nighy (Living) in othjer possibilities. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was outside of the top ten.
In the supporting derbies, my 2022 early October projections gave you only two of the eventual five in Supporting Actress with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Hong Chau (The Whale). Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) was an other possibility. The winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere) was not yet in my listed ten nor was fellow nominee Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). For Supporting Actor, I correctly had three with winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) and Banshees costars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) was in other possibilities while Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) had not entered my mix.
Whew. For those keeping score, that means I predicted 22 of the 35 movies, directors, and actors in those six races at this same juncture in 2022.
My first October projections contain a few alterations from my final September write-up. As much as I don’t like taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award victor American Fiction out of my BP lineup, I’m doing so with The Zone of Interest back in that list. On the same note, Zone‘s filmmaker Jonathan Glazer returns to my directing quintet with Celine Song (Past Lives) on the outside looking in.
Greta Lee (Past Lives) jumps back in Actress with Margot Robbie (Barbie) omitted. However, Lee’s costar John Magaro is dropped from Supporting Actor in favor of Charles Melton (May December).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Origin (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, Amerian Fiction (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Teo Yoo, Past Lives
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4 ) (E)
5. Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. About Dry Grasses (PR: 5) (-1)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Settlers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Teachers’ Lounge
Io capitano
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“High Life” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ferrari (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Creator (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m projecting these movies will garner these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
10 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, Maestro
5 Nominations
Past Lives
4 Nominations
The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, The Killer, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
As the mom of a school shooter preparing to meet with family members of the departed, Judy Greer stars in Michael Shannon’s directorial debut Eric Larue. Brett Neveu adapts his own play with a supporting cast including Paul Sparks, Alison Pill, Tracy Letts, and Alexander Skarsgård. It premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival and is seeking domestic distribution for later this year.
Reviews for the picture itself are a mixed bag with 70% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some of the critical reaction compares it to 2021’s similarly themed Mass. That film received more acclaim and came up empty at the Oscars.
The story should be the same for Larue with one possible exception. Greer is generating career best notices. She’s one of those performers that you’ll recognize from many projects on the big and small screen. The lengthy list includes Adaptation, 13 Going on 30, The Village, 27 Dresses, The Descendants, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Jurassic World, Ant-Man, Halloween and sequel Halloween Kills.
Normally I’d say that Larue might be too minor a project for Greer to contend for Best Actress attention. However, Andrea Riseborough’s surprise nom a few months back for To Leslie at least has me wondering. Greer is well-respected with two decades of character actor work. I wouldn’t count on her getting in, but the right campaign could change the dynamic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After nearly a year of speculation on the blog and the new podcast (look up Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite pod platform, folks!), the time has come to make my final picks for the winners at the 95th Academy Awards. The ceremony comes our way Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel hosting and here’s hoping the presenters are given the correct envelopes and that no one gets slapped.
For some context, here’s how I did in the previous four Oscars (note that there were 21 races through 2019 because the sound competitions were divided into Editing and Mixing until their combination).
2018: 14/21
2019: 18/21
2020: 13/20
2021: 17/20
Note that I seem to do better in the odd numbered years. That could repeat for 2022 as three of the four acting derbies are highly tricky to pick and there are other down-the-line competitions that could go in different directions. As for Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Animated Feature, and International Feature Film… not so much.
Let’s go through them one by one and I’ll give you my winner and runner-up projection!
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
The tricky part isn’t picking the victor. It’s picking the runner-up. That’s because Everything has taken, well, nearly everything. PGA. DGA. WGA. SAG Ensemble. Critics Choice.
OK, so All Quiet received the BAFTA and The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin were your respective Drama and Musical/Comedy recipients at the Golden Globes. Yet the momentum has been with Everything for some time and it is the easy pick for the biggest prize of the night.
Given that a screenplay and acting statue are legitimately in play, Banshees has the strongest argument for a package of trophies that could include BP. It’s a distant runner-up.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Director
Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
I suppose the voters could go the Globe route and bestow their honor on the legendary Spielberg. Doubtful. Look for the Academy to match the DGA and Critics Choice selections of Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert.
Predicted Winner: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Runner-Up: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett (Tár), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Now it gets tough. Blanchett’s towering work could be undeniable as it was to BAFTA and Critics Choice (similar to how Anthony Hopkins from The Father managed a win over Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom two years ago). The BP momentum and SAG could push Yeoh over the line. This is a coin flip and I’m siding with the momentum.
Predicted Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Best Actor
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
A three-person race dwindled when Farrell lost the BAFTA. It went instead to Butler and he also won the Globe (over Fraser). SAG and Critics Choice went to Fraser. I have gone back and forth on this endlessly. If Fraser won, he would break a precedent of the victorious Actor’s movie being up for Best Picture. You have to go back to 2009 and Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) to find the last one whose film wasn’t in the BP lineup. I cannot stress enough that this is 50.5/49.5.
Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Unlike Actress and Actor, this is between three nominees. Curtis surprisingly nabbed SAG while Bassett took Critics Choice and the Globe. Both are actresses whose wins could double as career achievement honors. I have a suspicion that the Academy may instead look at BAFTA winner Condon as their best opportunity to throw Banshees a bone.
Predicted Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Keoghan is the #2 since he unexpectedly won BAFTA. That said, this is the simplest acting race to project as Quan has won everything everywhere else.
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking
If All Quiet over performs (and it might), it could emerge here. The smart money is on Sarah Polley and WGA honored script for Talking.
Predicted Winner: Women Talking
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
Here’s another category where voters could single out Banshees. Still – I’m not going against the strong BP frontrunner.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red
del Toro’s version of the classic tale has taken all precursors that matter. This is one of the uncomplicated calls.
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, The Quiet Girl
This might even be more automatic than Animated Feature. As your lone BP contestant, All Quiet will make noise here.
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Argentina, 1985
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny
Tough pick. Breathes and Beauty are viable. I’ve picked Fire of Love over Navalny twice in Critics Choice and PGA and missed both times. Not again.
Predicted Winner: Navalny
Runner-Up: Fire of Love
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár
When perceived favorite Top Gun: Maverick shockingly failed to make this quintet, the race opened up. Elvis could make history and have the first female winner in Mandy Walker. It’s tempting to pick her, but I’ll go with Quiet.
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Costume Design
Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
On the other hand, here’s one where Elvis could take the gold. I wouldn’t count out Panther or even Everything if its sweep branches into upsets.
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
Maverick is in the mix, but Everything should extend its haul.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale
The Whale and Western are possible. I’m giving this one to The King, however.
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Runner-Up: The Whale
Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
This is one of the most open categories. I don’t see Banshees landing this. All 4 others are possible. Babylon or Western might be the smart pick, but this is the one true upset I’m selecting and projecting a Fabelmans/John Williams appreciation victory.
Predicted Winner: The Fabelmans
Runner-Up: Babylon
Best Original Song
“Tell It Like a Woman” from Applause, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
I don’t believe this is cut and dry. The star power of Gaga and Rihanna or an Everything expansion everywhere could make it interesting. “Naatu Naatu” has dominated the precursors and I’m not going with two upsets in the musical competitions.
Predicted Winner: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Runner-Up: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans
This is where Babylon should be Oscar winner Babylon though Elvis lurks.
Predicted Winner: Babylon
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
And this is where Top Gun: Maverick should get its Oscar. Yet I’m going with a minor upset pick with Western. That means I’m projecting Maverick ends up 0 for 6.
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick
No real Maverick shot in VE because Avatar is one of the automatic category picks.
Predicted Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
That equates to these movies achieving these numbers of wins:
6 Wins
Everything Everywhere All at Once
3 Wins
All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis
1 Win
Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Navalny, RRR, Women Talking
I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening or Monday on the blog and the podcast!
As a down on her luck lottery winner who blew through the cash, Andrea Riseborough’s much discussed Best Actress nomination for To Leslie is next up in my Case Of posts.
The Case for Andrea Riseborough:
Even a week before Oscar nods came out, Riseborough (known for roles in mainstream and indie fare including Oblivion, Battle of the Sexes, and Mandy) was on no one’s radar screen for this small budget drama. Then a grassroots campaign emerged with shout-outs from fellow competitor Cate Blanchett and others. Most didn’t think she’d manage to get in, but lo and behold it happened. So it that can happen… why not a victory?
The Case Against Andrea Riseborough:
Well, there’s plenty of reasons why there probably won’t be a win. She was mentioned in zero precursors. The unconventional campaign for her to make the quintet – fairly or unfairly – has been criticized. And Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) appear to be in a two-person race for the gold.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
The biggest surprise of the 20 contestants in the four acting derbies, Riseborough’s inclusion could lead to changes in the Academy’s campaign rules or could revolutionize how small distributors mount their campaigns. It’s doubtful the end result of the nomination itself is a win.
My Case Of posts will continue with Brendan Fraser in The Whale!
For my write-ups on Riseborough’s fellow nominees, click here:
It was a glorious performance for Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin with this morning’s Oscar nominations. Both pics were up everywhere they needed to be for everything to potentially win the big prize on March 12th.
There were also strong showings for All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, The Fabelmans, and Top Gun: Maverick. However, it’s fair to say that each missed a key race or two that would’ve helped for their Best Picture viability.
As far as my own showing, I went 79 for 105 in my projections. I’ll take it though it’s slightly under my 82/105 performance from the previous year. One bright spot: no 2 for 5’s as I’d experienced a couple of times in preceding years.
Let’s walk through each race one by one with initial thoughts, shall we?
Best Picture
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
How I Did: 8/10
No real shockers. The movies that I had listed 11th and 12th (Avatar and Women Talking) made it over my selections of Babylon and The Whale. I went a little bold omitting Water in the first place.
As hinted at, I’m seeing this as between Everything and Banshees with Fabelmans as a potential spoiler (and maybe Maverick if I’m feeling bold).
Best Director
The Nominees: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
How I Did: 4/5
The Daniels v. Spielberg is where this may come down to. All Quiet had a solid morning, but Edward Berger missing (I predicted him) likely eliminates it as a BP winner. Ostlund gets in instead.
Best Actress
The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 3/5
In just the last few days, there was an organic (?) campaign launched for Riseborough by plenty of famous faces. She was nowhere near the radar for the bulk of the season. Her inclusion might alter how campaigns look in the future. Williams (who was looking shaky) and Riseborough make it over my predictions of Viola Davis (The Woman King) and Danielle Deadwyler (Till). Both of their pics were shutout completely. As for who makes the podium trip, it’s either Blanchett or Yeoh.
Best Actor
The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
For most prognosticators, this came down to Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick vs. Mescal for the fifth slot. It wasn’t to be for a fourth Cruise nod. For Mescal and Nighy, it’s an honor to be in the quintet. The race is between Butler and Farrell and Fraser (who have all nabbed key precursors). FYI – this entire lineup is first-time nominees and 16 of the acting nominees are newbies (which is very high).
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 4/5
Hsu, who was my alternate, is in over Triangle‘s Dolly De Leon. If you’d told me De Leon’s movie would get Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay – I would’ve been even more confident she’d make it. With victories already at the Globes and Critics Choice, Bassett is the frontrunner.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 4/5
Henry gets the unanticipated nod over my pick of Paul Dano in The Fabelmans (many had Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse projected here). This is, frankly, the simplest acting derby to call and it is Quan.
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
The expected five as the Banshees v Everything showdown could be a clue during the night as to what wins BP at the end of it.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking
How I Did: 3/5
Maverick and All Quiet over She Said (which was shut out) and The Whale. Considering Women Talking made it in the BP ten, it could get the gold in this race and this one only since it received the least amount of nods (2) for the BP hopefuls. As an aside, there’s always a screenplay contender that gets no other noms anywhere else. This year it was Glass Onion.
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red
How I Did: 4/5
Pinocchio should take this, but this marks its only nod (it was expected to contend for Song and some techs). I had gone with Netflix’s Wendell and Wild for the fifth spot over Netflix’s The Sea Beast.
Best International Feature Film
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, The Quiet Girl
How I Did: 3/5
Here’s where there was a total surprise with Decision to Leave getting snubbed. I would’ve had it as the runner-up possibility to win over All Quiet (easily the favorite). I didn’t have Close or EO (though neither is unexpected). In addition to Decision, I also had Joyland.
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees: All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny
How I Did: 4/5
Had Descendant instead of Splinters. There’s a path to victory for everything but Splinters in my view.
Best Cinematography
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár
How I Did: 3/5
Top Gun: Maverick missing is baffling considering it was a major threat to win. It misses along with The Batman in favor of Bardo and Tár. I wouldn’t discount Empire for the victory though Quiet could make noise in this one.
Best Costume Design
The Nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
How I Did: 4/5
Everything‘s over performance is evident. I had The Woman King instead. The first three alphabetically are your possible winners.
Best Film Editing
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 3/5
In years past, getting an editing nod is often needed if you want to take BP. So it’s bad news for All Quiet and The Fabelmans. Banshees and Tár join the lineup in their place. Elvis, Everything, and Maverick all possibilities.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale
How I Did: 4/5
Had Amsterdam and not Quiet. Elvis or The Whale are most likely.
Best Original Score
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
How I Did: 3/5
Considering it made BP, I didn’t think Women Talking would miss. I also had Pinocchio but it’s All Quiet and Everything. This could be the sole Oscar for Babylon.
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
How I Did: 4/5
Had Pinocchio‘s “Ciao Papa” and not the Everything tune. Despite big names like Lady Gaga, Rihanna, and producer Diane Warren in the mix, “Naatu Naatu” has taken the precursors.
Best Production Design
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans
How I Did: 4/5
A rare occurrence as I had Everything projected and it didn’t make it. All Quiet materializes instead. This could be Elvis or maybe a second shot for Babylon.
Best Sound
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 4/5
The sound you hear when the envelope opens might be Maverick‘s only victory (now that Cinematography is impossible). I had EEAAO and not The Batman.
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 3/5
Had the wrong MCU pic with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and not Panther. All Quiet is also in and I had Thirteen Lives. This should be the Avatar trophy.
That means these movies ended up garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
9 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin
8 Nominations
Elvis
7 Nominations
The Fabelmans
6 Nominations
Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water
3 Nominations
Babylon, The Batman, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale
2 Nominations
Living, Women Talking
1 Nomination
Aftersun, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Blonde, Causeway, Close, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, A House Made of Splinters, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, RRR, The Sea Beast, Tell It Like a Woman, To Leslie, Turning Red
So what’s next? Followers of the blog may recall that I will soon begin my “Case Of” posts. That’s 35 separate write-ups making the case for and against all contenders in Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. Stay tuned!
It has been two weeks since my last Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired since. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards aired. SAG nominations came out. So did the BAFTA shortlists and PGA and DGA contenders.
All of this has made the puzzle a little clearer. Yet the fact remains – Oscar will Oscar when noms are released in a week. This is my penultimate forecast. Final predictions will arrive this weekend. Tonight’s estimates are your last look at rankings. It will simply be the listed picks a few days from now with commentary and a runner-up projection in each feature film category.
Here’s the latest developments as we are almost at the end of the line:
The Whale rises as it is back in my top 10 BP nominees. Women Talking falls out. A similar scenario in Supporting Actress as The Whale‘s Hong Chau is in over Women Talking‘s Claire Foy. After victories at the Globes and Critics Choice, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) vaults over Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) for the #1 slot in Supporting Actress.
On the other hand, I’m putting Austin Butler (Elvis) back in first over Brendan Fraser (The Whale). This is essentially a coin flip with Colin Farrell from Banshees as a legit spoiler.
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) returns to the directorial quintet and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is out.
In Actress, Viola Davis (The Woman King) at last makes the cut with Margot Robbie (Babylon) dropping. That’s not the only news in this derby. I almost went with Ana de Armas (Blonde) instead of Davis. And there’s the recent development of Andrea Riseborough’s online campaign for the micro budget indie drama To Leslie. Numerous performers, including Cate Blanchett, have boarded the Riseborough bandwagon. Two weeks ago – she was on no one’s radar screen. Now the buzz is enough to put her in 8th.
You can read all the movement below and look for those FINAL predictions this weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
6. Elvis (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Whale (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Babylon (PR: 11) (E)
12. RRR (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Women Talking (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 14) (E)
15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+3)
8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Sandler, Hustle (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Menu (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 2) (-1)
4. She Said (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. White Noise (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)
3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (E)
7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)
9. Inu-Oh (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 4) (E)
5. EO (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Quiet Girl (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)
10. Holy Spider (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. All That Breathes (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Navalny (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Territory (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Descendant (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)
8. Retrograde (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bad Axe (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Flight Home (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Janes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2 (+1)
2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (E)
7. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blonde (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emancipation (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nomnees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Women Talking (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-3)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (-1)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 7) (E)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Good Afternoon” from Spirited (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-2)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elvis (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)
9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nope (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Whale
4 Nominations
Babylon, Tár
3 Nominations
The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness
2 Nominations
Living, The Woman King, Women Talking
1 Nominations
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild
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