Tag: To Kill a Tiger

97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 30th Edition

These are last Oscar predictions in calendar year 2024 and I’ll likely do the final forecast on Tuesday, January 14th before the nominations are revealed on Friday, January 17th. It got me wondering how accurate my projections were for the 96th Academy Awards covering 2023 at this point in the calendar. Turns out… I did a post on December 29th of last year. The results? That’s what I’ll focus on in this write-up while giving you my predictions for the next broadcast.

The quick version is that my December 29th, 2023 forecast yielded 79 of the eventual 105 nominees. That’s not far off from my eventual tally of 84 of 105 when the announcements were made in January 2024. This includes 10 for 10 (!) in Best Picture and 5 for 5 in Makeup & Hairstyling. I went 4 for 5 in 10 other competitions while getting 3 for 5 in eight other competitions. There wasn’t one category where I didn’t have the winner listed as a nominee… except for in Visual Effects (we’ll get to that at the bottom).

Let’s get to it with some chatter about my performance in the previous year to use a potential context for what’s to come.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)

13. September 5 (PR: 12) (-1)

14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

10 for 10 on the Best Picture nominees and that includes listing eventual victor Oppenheimer at #1.

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jon M. Chu, Wicked

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5 and I correctly had Christopher Nolan’s direction of Oppenheimer listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Greta Gerwig (Barbie) in over Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), who was listed in 8th position.

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2.Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Eventual winner Emma Stone (Poor Things) was listed in 2nd after Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I incorrectly had Greta Lee (Past Lives) nominated over Annette Bening (Nyad), who I had listed in ninth.

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. I had the winner Cillian Murphy of Oppenheimer listed second after Bradley Cooper from Maestro. Where I went wrong – I had Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) nominated over my #6 Colman Domingo (Rustin).

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Joan Chen, Dídi

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. I correctly had Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – Julianne Moore (May December) and Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) in over Jodie Foster for Nyad (who I had in sixth) and America Ferrera in Barbie (who was 8th at that time).

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29 –

4 for 5. I correctly had Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) listed in first. Where I went wrong – I had Charles Melton (May December) being nominated over #7 Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction.

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner The Holdovers was listed 2nd while I had Barbie ranked 1st. It would be moved into Adapted Screenplay shortly thereafter. Where I went wrong – listing Barbie instead of #7 Maestro.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (-1)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. Per above, I had Barbie listed in Original instead of Adapted at that time. Winner American Fiction was slotted fourth. Where I went wrong – having Killers of the Flower Moon and All of Us Strangers instead of Barbie and #6 The Zone of Interest.

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Universal Language (PR: 9) (+2)

8. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Flow (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-4)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. The Zone of Interest was correctly listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – The Taste of Things was predicted over #9 lo capitano.

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)

9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner The Boy and the Heron was listed in 2nd. Where I went wrong – predicting The Peasants over #10 Robot Dreams.

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daughters (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-1)

8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. 20 Days in Mariupol was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – Beyond Utopia and American Symphony were predicted over #9 Bobi Wine: The People’s President and unranked To Kill a Tiger.

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Anora

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest nominated over #10 El Conde.

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed in 2nd (behind Barbie). Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)

7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Challengers (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Air and Barbie nominated over #6 The Holdovers and #8 Anatomy of a Fall.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

5 for 5! Winner Poor Things was listed second behind Maestro.

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Challengers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron nominated over #10 American Fiction and the unranked Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie was correctly in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had “Road to Freedom” from Rustin and “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple nominated over #6 “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony and #9 “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed 2nd behind Barbie. Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. I had winner The Zone of Interest listed fourth. Where I went wrong – Ferrari and Napoleon being nominated over #8 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 The Creator.

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)

7. Better Man (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. My #4 Godzilla Minus One won. Where I went wrong – this is the one category where my #1 (Poor Things) ended up not getting nominated. That’s in addition to having Society of the Snow getting in. #7 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 Napoleon made the cut instead.

Whew. And that leaves the following pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

8 Nominations

Conclave

7 Nominations

Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

4 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

Maria, Nickel Boys

2 Nominations

The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

96th Academy Awards FINAL Winner Predictions

After scores of Oscar Prediction posts, 35 Case Of write-ups making the argument for and against winners in BP, Director, and the four acting derbies, and numerous articles covering the key precursors – we have arrived at my final winner predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. The ceremony airs Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel back hosting (remember: it starts an hour earlier than normal at 7PM EST).

Truth be told, some of the major races come with little to zero suspense and you’ll read about that below. On the other hand, there are a handful of competitions that are quite unpredictable with the most visible being Best Actress.

As I do each year, I’ll give you the nominees, brief analysis, and a winner and runner-up pick for all the feature-length categories. Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Let’s keep this simple. Oppenheimer is the easiest BP selection to predict in quite some time and there’s been some obvious ones recently (including Everything Everywhere All at Once last year). It has taken all the precursors it needs to including the Globes, BAFTA, SAG and Critics Choice. Frankly, the more difficult call is runner-up (and it doesn’t really matter). I’ll go with Poor Things since it had the second most noms and showed up in all the major races where it was expected to contend.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

You could literally copy and paste everything about Picture for Director with the man who made Oppenheimer and throw in the fact that he took DGA as well. Another no brainer.

Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (I guess)

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

And now it gets complicated. Of the four acting races, this is by far the hardest one. Why? It appears to be a coin flip between Stone and Gladstone. They split the Golden Globes as anticipated. Stone received BAFTA and Critics Choice and appeared to be out front. And then Gladstone swooped in for SAG. That recency factor could serve as a boost. Additionally, Gladstone’s victory would be historic. For Stone, it would be her second statue in seven years after her La La Land prize. Stone could absolutely make the podium trip and it wouldn’t be unexpected at all. Yet for the reasons above…

Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Best Actor also looked like a pick ’em for a bit between Murphy and Giamatti. They split the Globes and then Giamatti was your Critics Choice choice. Murphy, however, regained momentum with BAFTA and SAG. A Giamatti win could occur, but it seems unlikelier now.

Prediction: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

There was some thought that this race could become interesting at some point with an Emily Blunt upset at SAG or maybe even Brooks scoring a shocking victory. It never happened and Randolph has emerged everywhere. This is one of the easiest categories to call.

Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

This quintet of performers all come from BP nominees, but the winner will be from the BP recipient. Downey Jr. has swept this season thus far and that’ll continue.

Prediction: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives

You’ll notice a common theme with both Screenplay derbies. It looked like each would difficult to figure out, but precursors have had consistency. In Original, that’s been Anatomy of a Fall and this should mark its sole Oscar since France inexplicably didn’t make it their International Feature Film submission.

Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

There is a little more intrigue here with Barbie in the mix and a potential Oppenheimer juggernaut being rewarded even here. That said, Fiction kept racking up precursors and I can’t bet against it for its solo prize.

Prediction: American Fiction

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest

As mentioned, with Anatomy left out, this becomes easy. Zone is the only BP nominee listed in this group.

Prediction: The Zone of Interest

Runner-Up: Society of the Snow

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

We’ve got real drama here as Heron took the Globe and BAFTA while Spidey is the Annie and Critics Choice selection. I’m leaning toward the latter, but Heron could fly away with the minor upset.

Prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

Doc Feature can be a head scratcher from time to time and I’m tempted to go with Daughters or even something else to shake it up. Mariupol, though, has collected the bulk of notable precursors. It’s the safe pick.

Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol

Runner-Up: Four Daughters

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Sometimes brevity is appreciated. There are some of these tech races where Oppenheimer is way out front. This would be one.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Here’s one where Oppenheimer isn’t really expected to win. Instead, like Production Design, this should be between Barbie and Poor Things and it’s 50/50 in my view. I have a strange feeling that Barbie will win more than 1 Oscar (there’s one coming below where it’s basically a slam dunk). This could mark that second trophy.

Prediction: Barbie

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST FILM EDITING

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

A very easy call for Oppenheimer.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Anatomy of a Fall

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow

Poor Things is a genuine threat, but I’ll say this is Maestro‘s only victory.

Prediction: Maestro

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

It is Oppenheimer‘s destiny to take this one.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Here’s where Barbie is the safe pick with either tune. “Ken” nabbed a Critics Choice prize, but Billie Eilish’s ballad scored at the Globes and Grammys.

Prediction: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Per Costume Design, a showdown between Barbie and Bella of Poor Things. Unlike Costume Design, my coin is flipped to Poor Things for what I’m projecting is its only Academy Award.

Prediction: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

BEST SOUND

Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

This looked like a no thinking pick for Oppenheimer until Zone managed the BAFTA. I could see that repeating, but I’m not confident enough to bet against Oppenheimer.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interst

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon

Along with Actress, this is where I’ve struggled the most. VE is kinda wild this year with Oppenheimer not listed (it won Critics Choice), Dune: Part Two having been pushed to 2024, and Poor Things (which won BAFTA) not in the quintet. So… your guess is as good as mine. I’m really tempted to go with Godzilla. Guardians and Napoleon are possible (I really don’t see Mission as the pick). Yet I’ll say The Creator edges them out as it just took some Visual Effects Society awards. Confidence level? Nada.

Prediction: The Creator

Runner-Up: Godzilla Minus One

That means I’m speculating that every BP nominee except Past Lives will win an Oscar… and that Barbie is the only other picture with more than one trophy other than Oppenheimer.

Here’s the projected breakdown for victories:

8 Wins

Oppenheimer

2 Wins

Barbie

1 Win

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Creator, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, 20 Days in Mariupol, The Zone of Interest

And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with how I did and general takeaways…

96th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

And they’re out! After a year of speculation, nominees for the 96th Academy Awards have been released. It was a morning where it felt weird that the 10 Best Picture contenders were relatively easy to project… and that it went according to script. However, the Academy’s picks veered off-script elsewhere as they always do.

I went 84 for 105 overall. Let’s walk through each race one by one with who got in, how I did, and some quick initial thoughts. As I have every year, I will do individual Case Of posts for the hopefuls in Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. That will kick off very soon…

Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 10/10

Oscar BP matches the PGA ten, as we all suspected. This was, frankly, one of the easiest lineups to project in years. That said, there was a sneaking suspicion that voters would surprise us with a sleeper pick or two. It didn’t materialize and Oppenheimer (leading the charge with 13 noms) is out front.

Director

Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

How I Did: 4/5

Triet makes the cut over Greta Gerwig for Barbie. Now would be a good time to mention that Barbie underperformed. It was anticipated to land double digit noms and managed 8. Nolan is the favorite.

Actress

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 4/5

Bening as Nyad jumps into the Actress pool instead of Margot Robbie as Barbie in another high profile omission for 2023’s biggest blockbuster. This should come down to Gladstone vs. Stone, but I wouldn’t completely discount a Hüller upset.

Actor

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

How I Did: 5/5

Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon seemed to lose steam in the last couple of weeks and that played out as I anticipated. Despite its 10 mentions, Killers had some significant misses this morning. As for those in contention, Giamatti vs. Murphy with Cooper as a potential spoiler.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 3/5

Blunt, Brooks, and Randolph all seemed safe and those last two slots were a bear to figure. Ferrera and Foster are in over Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) and Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), who missed the chance to become the Academy’s 13th double acting nominee. Randolph will be tough to beat.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

How I Did: 5/5

I’ll pat myself on the back for this one since this was arguably as tricky as Supporting Actress. Downey Jr. is in the lead.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives

How I Did: 4/5

Maestro (which had a good morning) over Saltburn (which came up empty-handed). I’d look for Holdovers to take this though Anatomy is a threat.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

In one of the more unexpected developments, Killers misses this in favor of Zone. This is a difficult race to project. I would say everything but Zone has a chance.

International Feature Film

Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/5

Capitano and Lounge instead of Fallen Leaves and Tótem. Since Zone is the sole contender for BP, this is one of the simplest categories to call.

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 4/5

Dreams over Suzume as the animated race should come down to Heron and Spider-Man.

Documentary Feature

Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

How I Did: 3/5

This is always a tricky competition to figure out. Bobi and Tiger make the quintet over Beyond Utopia (a surprising miss) and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. Projecting the winner is easier as Mariupol is the odds on favorite.

Cinematography

Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Conde over Zone of Interest as Oppenheimer looks to emerge.

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Napoleon instead of The Color Purple (which can only claim 1 nomination for Supporting Actress). Barbie vs. Poor Things is the contest.

Film Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

I thought Maestro might make it and left off Poor Things. Worth noting that this is another Barbie miss. Oppenheimer is the one to pick.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow

How I Did: 4/5

I had Killers and not Snow. This category represents Maestro‘s strongest shot at a victory.

Original Score

Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 3/5

Fiction and Destiny over Society of the Snow and The Zone of Interest. Now would be a good time to mention that Fiction had a nice haul today with 5. This is Oppenheimer‘s to lose.

Original Song

Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony, “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

How I Did: 4/5

Despite missing Documentary Feature, the tune from American Symphony is nominated over “Road to Freedom” from Rustin. This category may represent Barbie‘s likeliest trophy as it has a double shot. “What Was I Made For?” has the edge. And, of course, “Flamin’ Hot” marks yet another nom for Diane Warren.

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 5/5

Another Barbie vs. Poor Things derby.

Sound

Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/5

The Creator and Mission are unexpected double nominees. For Sound, they’re in over Ferrari (which was blanked) and Napoleon. This is one of the easiest ones to call… Oppenheimer.

Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon

How I Did: 3/5

Unlike Sound, this is one of the hardest categories to project. Mission and Napoleon make the five instead of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (which was held to just Animated Feature). Maybe The Creator is the pick, but I could easily change my mind.

All this activity means these movies ended up with these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

10 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

8 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro

5 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

Napoleon

2 Nominations

The Creator, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Nyad, Past Lives, Society of the Snow

1 Nomination

American Symphony, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, The Color Purple, El Conde, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Io Capitano, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Teachers’ Lounge, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

Oscar Predictions: To Kill a Tiger

Nisha Pahuja’s documentary To Kill a Tiger originally premiered at the Toronto Film Festival back in September of 2022 and scored stateside distribution in October of last year. The true crime saga set in a small Indian village won Best Canadian Film honors at TIFF and has picked up regional fest awards over the past few months.

With a RT rating of 100%, it was still surprising that Tiger was included among the 15 shortlisted features for Documentary Feature at the Oscars. There’s always the possibility of unexpected inclusions in this race, but I haven’t put it in the top ten contenders in recent forecasts. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2023 Oscars Shortlists Reaction

The Oscar shortlists for the 96th Academy Awards were revealed today for seven feature length categories. We now know the ten finalists for Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects and the 15 hopefuls for Original Score, Original Song, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature.

Per usual, there were surprises (though I’d say no complete jaw droppers). In Song, three films make up a third of the contenders (Hi Barbie!). Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One and Napoleon did about the best they could do while others like Nyad, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, and Past Lives missed key races where they were expected to contend for nominations.

Overall I went 63 for 90 in my forecasts. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and my new top tens for where I believe things stand in the various competitions!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Shortlist: Beau is Afraid, Ferrari, Golda, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Last Voyage of the Demeter, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow

How I Did: 6/10

Perhaps the biggest unexpected snub was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 missing here (its two predecessors were respectively nominated and shortlisted). I also had Barbie (Bye Barbie!), Nyad, and Priscilla in the mix. In their places are Beau Is Afraid, Ferrari, The Last Voyage of the Demeter (didn’t see that coming), and Society of the Snow. This is probably Maestro‘s race to lose.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

1. Maestro (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beau Is Afraid (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Golda (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Nyad

The Color Purple

Wonka

Best Sound

Shortlist: Barbie, The Creator, Ferrari, The Killer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 8/10

Oppenheimer is clearly the leader. I felt like if Zone made the cut, its chances to make the final quintet are solid. The Creator and Mission: Impossible are listed over my picks of The Color Purple and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ferrari (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Killer (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Color Purple

Society of the Snow

Best Visual Effects

Shortlist: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things, Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 8/10

Mission and Napoleon get in over my picks of Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves and Killers of the Flower Moon. This race is, frankly, a crapshoot ever since we found out Oppenheimer wouldn’t contend. With the Guardians omission in Makeup & Hairstyling, I feel compelled to remove it from 1st place here (though it still be the MCU’s first winner). The Creator? Godzilla? Perhaps. For now I’m rolling with Poor Things atop the leaderboard, but this is a toughie.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS:

1. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+2)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Best Original Score

Shortlist: American Fiction, American Symphony, Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, The Color Purple, Elemental, The Holdovers, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 10/15

Some rather unexpected snubs including Nyad and Past Lives. I also had Carmen, Ferrari, and The Killer up for contention. In their places are American Fiction, American Symphony, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, and Saltburn. Like in Sound, the chances of Oppenheimer being victorious are decent.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Elemental (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (E)

10. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Past Lives

Best Original Song

Shortlist: “Am I Dreaming” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse; “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes; “Dance the Night” from Barbie; “Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City; “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “High Life” from Flora and Son; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple; “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son; “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives; “Road to Freedom” from Rustin; “Superpower” from The Color Purple; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

How I Did: 10/15

Those three movies making up a third of the hopefuls are Barbie, Flora and Son, and The Color Purple. I incorrectly had both Flora tunes and “Superpower” from Purple out. Same goes for “Am I Dreaming” and “Can’t Catch Me Now”. The quintet that I incorrectly had in were “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (surprised it missed after the Globes nom), “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me (Bye Bruce Springsteen), “For the First Time” from The Little Mermaid, and “This Wish” from Wish (which I had in my top five days ago). It’s key to remember that only two tracks from a picture can make this race. That’s why I have “Dance the Night” outside the top ten since I’m confident “What Was I Made For?” and “I’m Just Ken” are in.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (-2)

9. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Droppe Out:

“This Wish” from Wish

“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

“It’s Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady

“A World of Your Own” from Wonka

Best International Feature Film

Shortlist: Amerikatsi (Armenia), Fallen Leaves (Finland), Four Daughters (Tunisia), Godland (Iceland), Io Capitano (Italy), The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan), The Mother of All Lies (Morocco), Perfect Days (Japan), The Promised Land (Denmark), Society of the Snow (Spain), The Taste of Things (France), The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany), Tótem (Mexico), 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine), The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

How I Did: 12/15

Documentaries The Mother of All Lies and Four Daughters are in as well as Amerikatsi. I had About Dry Grasses, The Peasants, and The Settlers. By the way, the miss for The Peasants may not bode well for its Animated Feature chances (where I’ve had it getting nominated). Barring an upset, this is The Zone of Interest‘s category to lose (though an upset isn’t totally out of the question).

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Perfect Days (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tótem (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Io Capitano (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Monk and the Gun (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Godland (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

About Dry Grasses

The Promised Land

Best Documentary Feature

Shortlist: American Symphony, Apolonia, Apolonia, Beyond Utopia, Bobi Wire: The People’s President, Desperate Souls, Dark City, and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, In the Rearview, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, A Still Small Voice, 32 Sounds, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

How I Did: 9/15

There’s always unforeseen developments in the Doc derby. My picks of The Deepest Breath, Kokomo City, The Mission, The Mother of All Lies (despite the IFF nod), Orlando, My Political Biography, and The Pigeon Tunnel fell in favor of Desperate Souls, Dark City, and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, In the Rearview, A Still Small Voice, 32 Sounds, and To Kill a Tiger. I’d say Beyond Utopia is still the slight favorite, but I’m very curious to see what certain precursors do.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (E)

5. American Symphony (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Still Small Voice (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Mother of All Lies

The Deepest Breath

Every Body

Keep an eye on the blog for all speculation as we inch closer to Oscar nomination morning!