As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Actor and that’s Adrien Brody for Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist.
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
Actor (The Pianist) – WON
The Case for Adrien Brody:
Adrien Brody’s lead acting victory for Roman Polanski’s The Pianist was a surprise 22 years ago when he beat heavy hitters like Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt) and Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York). With wins already at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, this time he’s the frontrunner. He hasn’t missed anywhere with two at bats forthcoming at the BAFTAs and SAG.
The Case Against Adrien Brody:
He already has a gold statue and the Academy might want to honor Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown (who would replace Brody as the youngest Best Actor winner ever). The Brutalist‘s fortunes in Best Picture and Director could be fading with Anora on the upswing and that could hinder this everywhere.
The Verdict:
Brody is the favorite. If Chalamet can pick up BAFTA (less likely) or SAG (likelier), this becomes more of a race.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first contender in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora and The Brutalist for BP and if you missed those, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our third hopeful is A Complete Unknown.
The Case for A Complete Unknown:
If you want to bet on the picture with some late breaking momentum, the Bob Dylan biopic from James Mangold might be your horse. Released in December, Unknown is doing healthy business at the box office and scored 8 total noms that include Director, Actor (Timothée Chalamet), Supporting Actress (Monica Barbaro), Supporting Actor (Edward Norton), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Sound. The journey to the better than expected nomination count began with over performances at the precursors. It really hasn’t missed anywhere with a Best Ensemble mention at SAG and BP noms at the Golden Globes, PGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and a DGA slot for Mangold.
The Case Against A Complete Unknown:
It didn’t win the Golden Globe in Drama (that went to The Brutalist). The 80% RT score and 71 Metacritic are below most of its competitors. There’s even a chance that it goes 0 for 8 on Oscar night. I wouldn’t say it is the favorite in any category.
The Verdict:
I don’t think it’s impossible for this to take the top prize, but I would need to see some victories at upcoming precursors such as Critics Choice or SAG.
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The fourth post in this series is Best Actor. If you missed my write-ups for the other three acting derbies, you can access them here:
Truth be told, this is the easiest quintet of the acting categories to forecast. There are five performers who have nabbed nominations in four of the most important precursors – the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list. They are: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). The safe bet is to predict this group being the Oscar hopefuls and that’s where my head is at currently.
However, Craig in particular could be vulnerable. Queer is not a contender in Best Picture or any other race with the possible exception of Adapted Screenplay (and that’s a long shot).
Before we discuss actors who could replace him, let’s spend a moment remembering those leading men who were once looked at as possibilities. This is before their movies flamed out or their roles just weren’t “baity” enough. It is also due to them not really showing up anywhere in precursors. I’m looking at you, Joaquin Phoenix in Joker: Folie à Deux. And Adam Driver in Megalopolis is in that club. Same goes for Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Tom Hanks (Here), Kevin Costner (Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), Cillian Murphy (Small Things like These), and Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time).
There’s three gentlemen who made the BAFTA long list who really have no shot at Oscar glory – Kingsley Ben-Adir (Bob Marley: One Love), Jude Law (Firebrand), and Dev Patel (Monkey Man). There are Globe nominees in Actor (Musical or Comedy) that you could say the same about – Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night) and Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness).
That leaves 5 performances jockeying for one slot: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), and Sebastian Stan (A Different Man). I remind you that, as of now, I’d put them all behind Craig. Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Jesse Eisenberg’s fortunes could rise slightly if A Real Pain gets into Best Picture (which I am forecasting it won’t at press time). I suspect voters will only honor his costar Kieran Culkin in supporting and I’d rank him 4th out of these 5 possibilities. Eisenberg has only managed a Globe nod which he did not win.
Hugh Grant also nabbed a Globe nod in the horror pic Heretic and was BAFTA longlisted and is up at Critics Choice. Had he emerged victorious for Actor (Musical or Comedy) at the Globes, he might be a more attractive pick. This is a little tempting since he’s never received Oscar attention, but I have him 2nd out of the 5 possibilities.
Glen Powell has had a great couple of years with massive hits Top Gun: Maverick, Anyone but You, and Twisters. His turn in Richard Linklater’s acclaimed comedy was an early trendy pick for inclusion. Like Eisenberg and Grant, he was up at the Globes and fell short. I have him 5th out of 5 possibilities.
Sebastian Stan’s embodiment of a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice was Globe nominated and BAFTA longlisted. The Critics Choice and SAG omissions sting though I’d rank him 1st of these 5 possibilities.
For our double shot of Stan, he did win Actor (Musical or Comedy) for his role in A Different Man at the Golden Globes. Yet none of the six nominated performers in that category are truly seen as viable hopefuls at Oscar. I have this iteration of Stan 3rd of these 5 possibilities.
OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do my final picks. My post for Best Director is up next!
The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent of the Academy Awards, unveil their nominees this Wednesday, January 15th. This comes after they revealed their long lists for contenders in their various races a little over a week ago.
Here are my picks for the nominees across the competitions with an alternate picked in each. I’ll have a recap with how I did and general thoughts mid-week!
Best Film
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance
Alternate – A Complete Unknown
Outstanding British Film
Bird, Blitz, Civil War, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Alternate – Wicked Little Letters
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, Kneecap, Santosh, The Taste of Mango
Alternate – Monkey Man
Best Children’s and Family Film
Flow, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea
Alternate – Piece by Piece
Best Film Not in the English Language
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, La Chimera
Alternate – The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Best Documentary
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper
Alternate – Elton John: Never Too Late
Best Animated Feature
Flow, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Alternate – Inside Out 2
Best Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Alternate – Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Best Original Screenplay
Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance
Alternate – All We Imagine as Light
Best Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Wicked
Alternate – Sing Sing
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Kate Winslet (Lee)
Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Best Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Alternate – Hugh Grant (Heretic)
Best Supporting Actress
Michele Austin (Hard Truths), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Alternate – Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez)
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
Alternate – Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
Best Casting
Anora, Blitz, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
Alternate – Kneecap
Best Cinematography
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu
Alternate – Emilia Pérez
Best Costume Design
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Alternate – Blitz
Best Editing
Anora, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance
Alternate – Dune: Part Two
Best Makeup and Hair
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
Alternate – Emilia Pérez
Best Original Score
Blitz, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance
Alternate – Wicked
Best Production Design
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Alternate – The Brutalist
Best Special Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Alternate – Wicked
Best Sound
Civil War, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
Alternate – The Substance
That works out to these pictures landing these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Conclave
10 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
8 Nominations
Anora, The Brutalist, The Substance, Wicked
6 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
5 Nominations
Gladiator II
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Kneecap, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Blitz, Hard Truths, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
2 Nominations
All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Civil War, Flow, Lee, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Bird, Black Box Diaries, Bring Them Down, Challengers, Daughters, Grand Theft Hamlet, I’m Still Here, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, La Chimera, Memoir of a Snail, Nickel Boys, No Other Land, The Outrun, Queer, Santosh, Sing Sing, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, The Taste of Mango, Will & Harper, Young Woman and the Sea
Nominations for the 31st Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards roll out this Wednesday, January 8th. They are, of course, another key precursor before Oscar noms are unveiled January 17th. However, this branch can often go there own way and that’s especially true for lead Actress and the supporting fields. Let’s take a walk through all six feature film categories with my picks, a runner-up possibility, and some commentary.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
At the last five SAGs, 18 of the 25 nominees matched the Oscar selections. In none of the years did SAG and the Academy match 5 for 5. Therefore, I’m hesitant to project my current Oscar quintet of Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), and Demi Moore (The Substance). I would say Gascón, Madison, and Moore feel relatively safe with Erivo and Jolie (especially after missing the BAFTA long list) vulnerable. Who could spoil the party? I wouldn’t discount Kate Winslet (Lee), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), or Amy Adams (Nightbitch). Yet I just can’t decide who to take out the original group so I’m (reluctantly) sticking with it.
Predicted Nominees:
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Runner-Up: Kate Winslet, Lee
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
In this contest, SAG and the Academy is more synced up at 22/25 over the past five years and 5 for 5 matches in 2020, 2021, and 2023 and 4 for 5 for 2019 and 2022. That means I’m feeling confident about these four slots that most agree will achieve Oscar status – Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). It’s that fifth one that’s a question mark. I currently have Daniel Craig (Queer) clinging to the Academy spot. However, I could see SAG going for either Hugh Grant (Heretic) or Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). I’ll go with the latter.
Predicted Nominees:
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Runner-Up: Hugh Grant, Heretic
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Like Actress, there’s an 18 for 25 SAG/Oscar matchup over the previous half decade. In 2020, there was only a 2 for 5 match while it was 5/5 in 2022. I feel like only two performers are safe: Ariana Grande in Wicked and Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez. Despite the short screen time, Isabella Rossellini in Conclave seems likely. For Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson, she needs to show up here and I have her barely making the cut. While I have Felicity Jones currently getting an Oscar nod for The Brutalist, she may be on the outside looking in here. The fifth slot could be Saldaña’s costar Selena Gomez, Margaret Qualley in The Substance, or either Elle Fanning or Monica Barbaro from A Complete Unknown. I’m going to roll the dice with Gomez on this one which would cause Pérez to probably lead all nominated pictures.
Predicted Nominees:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
There’s a 17 for 25 SAG/Oscar match here. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) has a reserved spot in the five and I feel like SAG won’t ignore Denzel Washington from Gladiator II. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) is probably close to a shoo-in. For the last two spots, I would think they’d go for Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing unless they figure an Ensemble nomination is recognition enough. For the five spot, I had it between Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) and Yura Borisov (Anora) with the former having the edge. I’ll be honest. I hate that this is my current Oscar quintet but it is what it is. Keep an eye on surprisers like Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), or Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside)
Predicted Nominees:
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Runner-Up: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
As an annual reminder, SAG isn’t honoring “Best Picture”. It’s their favorite ensemble. Normally there’s at least one nominee that doesn’t get a BP nod from the Academy. Perhaps Saturday Night is that movie, but I’m skeptical. The top 7 possibilities here – Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, Wicked – are all serious BP contenders. The Brutalist (despite being first in my Oscar mix at the moment) could be vulnerable due to its smaller cast. It’s a coin flip as to what else comes out, but I’m going with Sing Sing.
Predicted Nominees:
Anora
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
Runner-Up: Sing Sing
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Give credit to SAG as they give credit to stunt performers and this sure seems like a competition that’s tailor-made for The Fall Guy in 2024. Other possibilities include Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and maybe even Wicked. I also wouldn’t discount Dev Patel’s Monkey Man. That said, I’m forecasting Deadpool & Wolverine enough though Mr. Pool’s two predecessors didn’t get in here.
Predicted Nominees:
Deadpool & Wolverine
Dune: Part Two
The Fall Guy
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Gladiator II
Runner-Up: Monkey Man
That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
4 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Wicked
2 Nominations
Anora, The Brutalist, Gladiator II, Sing Sing
1 Nomination
The Apprentice, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Maria, Monkey Man, The Piano Lesson, A Real Pain, The Substance
2025 at the box office begins with no new wide releases as holiday holdovers will dominate the charts and especially family-friendly ones.
While Sonic the Hedgehog 3 barely edged Mufasa: The Lion King for the Friday to Sunday portion of the Christmas weekend in their second outings, that should change in the new year. I have Disney’s Mufasa easing in the mid 30s with Sonic declining in the mid 40s. That would give the Mouse House the #1 spot.
The 3-5 slots could be close. I have Wicked rising from 4th to 3rd with a mid to high 20s decline and Nosferatu going from 3rd to 4th with a high 30s to low 40s dip after an impressive start (more on that below). Moana 2 would stay put in fifth with A Complete Unknown remaining in 6th (though it may only see a 20% or so reduction considering its impressive A Cinemascore grade).
Here’s how I envision it all shaking out:
1. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $25.1 million
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
4. Nosferatu
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
5. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $13 million
6. A Complete Unknown
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
Box Office Results (December 27-29)
In what turned out to be a photo finish, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 claimed bragging rights as 2024 closed out with $37 million (topping my $32.1 million estimate) in its sophomore play. The Sega based threequel brought its two-week tally to $136 million.
Mufasa: The Lion King actually took first for the five-day Christmas to Sunday crown, but was second for the traditional weekend at $36.8 million. That’s well beyond my $26 million projection as the pre/sequel sits at $113 million.
Nosferatu had no trouble being the best performing newcomer in third with $21.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $40.8 million when factoring in Christmas Day and December 26th. The Robert Eggers gothic horror tale easily eclipsed my respective $14.8 million and $26.4 million forecasts. With a B- Cinemascore (not bad actually for its genre), its staying power might not be as potent as other leftovers on the chart.
Wicked was fourth with $19.7 million (I said $18.8 million) to bring its massive six-week haul to $424 million.
Moana 2 rounded out the top five with $18.9 million, ahead of my $16.9 million call. The Disney sequel has made $395 million after five weeks.
The Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet had a respectable start in sixth with $11.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $23.2 million with the extra two days. I went higher at $16.3 million and $31.1 million, but it’s still a solid debut for the Oscar hopeful.
Nicole Kidman’s steamy thriller Babygirl was seventh with $4.3 million for the three-day and $7.2 million since its Wednesday beginning. That’s right on pace with my predictions of $4.2 million and $6.9 million.
Gladiator II took the 8th spot at $4 million for $163 million in six weeks. I projected that the Ridley Scott sequel would get a bit more at $5.7 million.
In its second go-round, Homestead from Angel Studios was ninth with $3 million (I said $4.6 million) to bring its total to $12 million.
Finally, true-life boxing drama The Fire Inside wasn’t exactly a knockout with audiences. It was 10th with $1.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.2 million since Wednesday. That didn’t even match my meager estimates of $2.9 million and $4.8 million.
Blogger’s Update (12/24): On the eve of its Christmas premiere, I’m bumping my A Complete Unknown from $13.1 million to $16.3 million from Friday to Sunday and from $24.4 million to $31.1 million from Wednesday to Sunday
The 2024 movie season concludes with Christmas falling on a Wednesday and four wide releases populating the marketplace that day. They are gothic horror remake Nosferatu from Robert Eggers, Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet, steamy thriller Babygirl starring Nicole Kidman, and the true-life boxing tale The Fire Inside. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:
The box office can get awfully unpredictable over the holidays and that might hold true this year. Many questions abound. There is a decent chance that the top four, despite the same number of newbies, remains the same. Sonic the Hedgehog 3, after ruling the charts surprisingly easily over Mufasa: The Lion King, may cling to 1st even though it should have the largest decline of holdovers. I’m projecting it falls over in the mid to high 40s with Mufasa only easing in the high 20s in their second weekends.
Other returnees, as can be the case over the Yuletide frame, may experience increases from the previous frame. If so, Wicked (which I have rising in the mid 30s) and Moana 2 (low 30s) may maintain the 3-4 positions.
I have Nosferatu and A Complete Unknown both in the low teens for Friday to Sunday and mid 20s when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Either of them could exceed my expectations and enter the top 4.
As for Babygirl and The Fire Inside, I have them in the bottom of top 10 with Gladiator II in seventh and Homestead in 8th.
Here’s how I have it all shaking out:
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $32.1 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $26 million
3. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $18.8 million
4. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million
5. A Complete Unknown
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $31.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
6. Nosferatu
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $26.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
7. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
8. Homestead
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
9. Babygirl
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $6.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
10. The Fire Inside
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (December 20-22)
Paramount/Sega, as mentioned, held the top spot with plenty of room to spare as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 made off with $60.1 million. That’s well under my generous $77.6 million estimate and falls well shorty of the $72 million achieved by part 2 in 2022. It’s still a respectable number considering that it should perform decently in the weeks ahead.
Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King didn’t exactly roar in second with $35.4 million compared to my $51.3 million prediction. Considering the reported $200 million price tag, this is a letdown. However, families could be biding their time to make their trek to multiplex to view it.
Wicked was third with $14.1 million, a tad ahead of my $12.7 million take. The Broadway adaptation stands at $384 million after five weeks.
After three weeks in 1st, Moana 2 was fourth with $13.2 million (I said $12.5 million) to bring its tally to $359 million.
Angel Studios got their post-apocalyptic pic Homestead to the five spot with $6 million and I failed to do a projection for it.
Gladiator II was sixth with $4.5 million (I was right there at $4.6 million) for five-week earnings of $154 million.
Finally, Kraven the Hunter from the Spider-Man Universe tumbled 72% to $3 million in its sophomore frame compared to my $4.8 million projection. The stalled superhero tale has made a piddly $17 million thus far.
And that does it for now, folks! Have a wonderful holiday and until next time…
Blogger’s Update (12/24): On the eve of its Christmas premiere, I’m bumping my A Complete Unknown from $13.1 million to $16.3 million from Friday to Sunday and from $24.4 million to $31.1 million from Wednesday to Sunday
Searchlight Pictures hope audiences seek A Complete Unknown when it debuts on Christmas Day. James Mangold, no stranger to the musical biopic genre with 2005’s Johnny and June Cash centered Walk the Line, directs. Timothée Chalamet is the legendary Bob Dylan with a supporting cast including Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, Boyd Holbrook (as Johnny Cash), and Scoot McNairy.
Chalamet, coming off the one-two punch of Wonka and Dune: Part Two, has been visible promoting this and even went on College GameDay to hawk the holiday release. Reviews are sturdy enough with 78% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 72 Metacritic. Its lead, who does his own singing, is generating Best Actor buzz and he is a threat to win (it could nab a Best Picture slot too).
Unknown could succeed in bringing in an older audience interested in the subject matter and some youngsters interested in Chalamet. With Christmas falling on Wednesday, I think this reaches low double digits or low teens from Friday to Sunday and mid 20s for the five-day.
A Complete Unknown opening weekend prediction: $16.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $31.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is picking up the kind of precursor recognition that may lead to a Best Picture nomination. Whether it ultimately makes the cut is, well, a complete unknown. The Fox Searchlight release is out Christmas Day with Timothée Chalamet as the legendary singer and Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, Boyd Holbrook, and Scoot McNairy providing support.
The review embargo is lifted with 74% on Rotten Tomatoes and 70 on Metacritic. It is fair to say critical reaction is more mixed than plenty of other contenders. Yet praise for Chalamet’s work is consistent and he appears poised for his second Academy nod after being up in Supporting Actor for 2017’s Call Me by Your Name. This time he’ll be playing in lead and he’s a threat to win. As for the rest of the cast, Norton (as Pete Seeger) just landed a Golden Globe nod. His inclusion at the Oscars is possible, but not a slam dunk like the headliner. Fanning and Barbaro are both generating complimentary notices, but Supporting Actress may be too crowded.
Down the line nods like Costume Design, Production Design, and (especially) Sound are achievable though I wouldn’t be surprised to see none of those ultimately materialize. The biggest question mark is indeed Picture. I don’t see Director and Adapted Screenplay happening. Unknown has made the AFI and NBR top tens and got a Best Motion Picture (Drama) slot at the Globes where they honor six hopefuls.
Mangold’s Walk the Line from 2005 (his biopic about Johnny Cash) received a handful of nods. Reese Witherspoon took home the Actress statue as June Carter Cash while Joaquin Phoenix was nominated for Actor. It contended in Film Editing, Costume Design, and Sound. I see a range of possibilities for Complete. One is Chalamet being nominated (a given) and that’s it. Under that scenario, a win could be trickier. He could also be in the mix with perhaps just Sound or another tech race or two. A best case scenario would be Unknown grabbing the ninth or tenth BP spot along with a combo of the aforementioned. It that happens, it’ll be an honor for it to be nominated in the biggest race while Chalamet goes for the victory. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat hopes to find love from home viewers in its Hulu debut this weekend. The fact that it’s not in theaters came as an unexpected announcement from Searchlight Pictures (under the Disney umbrella) a few weeks back. Based on a 2013 novel from Edward Kelsey Moore, the decades spanning drama features Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Sanaa Lathan, and Uzo Aduba as lifelong friends. Costars include Mekhi Phifer, Julian McMahon, Vondie Curtis-Hall, and Russell Hornsby. Tina Mabry directs.
On paper, The Supremes looks like the type of crowdpleaser that might have appealed to awards voters. However, Searchlight went the streaming route. The strategy makes more sense as of the past few days. Earl’s sports a so-so 68% Rotten Tomatoes score at press time. Critics are kind to the performances of Ellis-Taylor (a Supporting Actress nominee for King Richard in 2021), Lathan, and Aduba (Emmy winner for Orange is the New Black).
Yet the reviews likely would have prevented this from generating much Oscar chatter. Searchlight also has other contenders that they’ll focus on. This includes the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet, Nightbitch with a potential Academy bait turn from Amy Adams, and A Real Pain which has already received Supporting Actor talk for Kieran Culkin.
If anyone had a shot from Supremes, it would be Ellis-Taylor. She would appear to have another bite at the apple with the upcoming Nickel Boys (also based on a bestseller) in the supporting field. As I always say, my Oscar Prediction posts will continue. They will not continue with this picture, per Searchlight.
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