Edward Berger’s last two features (2022’s All Quiet on the Western Front, last year’s Conclave) amassed a total of 17 nominations at the Oscars. The former won four including International Feature Film while the latter received Adapted Screenplay. So it’s no surprise that Ballad of a Small Player, his latest that premiered at Telluride, is automatically seen as a potential contender. Based on a 2014 novel by Lawrence Osborne, Colin Farrell stars as a degenerate gambler in the multi-genre affair. Costars include Fala Chen, Deanie Ip, Alex Jennings, and Tilda Swinton. There’s a limited release October 15th before a Netflix bow on October 29th.
While some praise is devoted to the look of Ballad, reaction out of Colorado is mixed and this is evidenced by the 51 Metacritic score. Rotten Tomatoes has yet to report based on 9 write-ups though 6 are fresh with 3 rotten. Reviews tend to agree that Farrell offers a memorable performance. Three years back, he received his first leading actor nod for The Banshees of Inisherin. His work may provide Player‘s one shot at Academy attention. Given the expected competition, I wouldn’t bet on it as Netflix may shift their focus elsewhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
There are changes to discuss with my first Oscar predictions in two weeks. The headline is that we have 2 new selections in my Best Picture ten. As I mentioned in the recent aftermath of the Cannes Film Festival, distributor Neon already has a full slate of contenders to campaign for including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, and The Life of Chuck. With Chuck out in limited release, I am beginning to suspect it could get the short shrift. I am also starting to sour on The Rivals of Amziah King, which drew raves at Sundance in January. We will have to see if it plays fall festivals and can regain any momentum.
With King and Chuck falling out of my projected BP lineup, it leaves room for Netflix to join the party via Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein and I’m also elevating del Toro in Director with Amziah‘s Andrew Patterson out. The other pic to rise is Scott Cooper’s Bruce Springsteen biopic Deliver Me from Nowhere. In Best Actor, Matthew McConaughey from Amziah is replaced with Michael B. Jordan in Sinners. I still have Angelina LookingGlass from Amziah clinging to a Supporting Actress mention though I came close to replacing her with either Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Laura Dern (Jay Kelly), or Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman).
Also noteworthy is the ascension of Sentimental Value in Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actor with Renate Reinsve now at #1 in Actress. As a reminder, this isn’t saying the #1 pick is who/what I believe will win. It is a sign of surety of the nomination.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+2)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 16) (+8)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)
10. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)
13. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (-4)
15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-7)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Die, My Love (PR: 20) (+2)
19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)
20. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (E)
22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)
23. Sound of Falling (PR: 17) (-6)
24. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+8)
5. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)
14. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-9)
15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (+1)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (E)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)
10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12 (E)
It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards and a little thing called the Cannes Film Festival has happened since then. The French extravaganza has become increasingly important when figuring out your eventual Oscar ballots. To what extent? Last year’s winner Anora premiered there and took the Palme d’Or while fellow nominees Emilia Pérez and The Substance were also unveiled. In 2023, Anatomy of a Fall‘s Palme victory translated to a BP nomination while The Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon were also on the slate. 2022 Palme recipient Triangle of Sadness was part of the Academy’s BP ten while Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick premiered out of competition. You get the idea.
This year’s proceedings bestowed top prize to Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. And while a Palme d’Or certainly increases a picture’s chances in BP, I’m not ready to vault it into the Oscar top 10. As for the Grand Prix winner (essentially runner-up), I already had Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value in my ten and the Cannes premiere solidified that projection.
There were performances that gained momentum like Value’s quadrology of Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Same goes for Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love and Cannes Best Actor Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, who goes from unranked to my top 5.
Per usual, there were movies whose awards consideration hopes faded. That list includes The History of Sound, Alpha, Eddington, and The Phoenician Scheme.
Yet for all the Cannes chatter, my new #1 in BP has nothing to do with that event. I’ve had Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt slotted atop that chart over the last few weeks. Truth be told, that’s plain ole guesswork since it has yet to screen. I’m replacing it with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale Sinners, the box office phenomenon that opened in April. Do I think it’s going to win BP? Probably not though it’s obviously far too early for that call. I do think that it and Sentimental Value (also rising) are the two pics that have been viewed that will not miss the cut.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)
2. After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Bugonia (PR: 12) (-1)
14. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
16. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Sound of Falling (PR: Not Ranked)
18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (-4)
20. Die, My Love (PR: 16) (-4)
21. Ann Lee (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)
23. F1 (PR: 21) (-2)
24. The Smashing Machine (PR: 23) (-1)
25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Highest 2 Lowest
Michael – the Michael Jackson biopic is reportedly moving to 2026
Is This Thing On?
Alpha
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (E)
15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (+1)
11. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)
13. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)
10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked – moved from supporting)
11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Hamnet (moved to supporting)
Jaafar Jackson, Michael
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Andrew Scott, Pressure
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)
9. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 13) (E)
14. Tilda Swinton, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Greta Lee, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead actor)
7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Stephen Graham, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
Let’s begin with Best Actress as it might be the most tricky of all to figure out (though the supporting competitions are up there too). I believe there are three performers whose nominations you can write down in pen.
For months, I’ve had Mikey Madison (Anora) listed in 1st place for her work in Anora. She’s been nominated everywhere she needs to be – Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, the BAFTA long list. The film is definitely in the top 5 of Best Picture hopefuls. In other words, she’s in.
That said, just yesterday, I slid her from 1st to 2nd in favor of Demi Moore in The Substance. That’s mainly because Moore was victorious over Madison at the Golden Globes in the Actress (Musical or Comedy) category. Furthermore, Hollywood loves a comeback story. That is present with Demi. She managed all the aforementioned precursors that Madison has and there’s a win in her favor. I do believe the Oscar could go to either of them, but this seems reminiscent of Best Actor in 2022. Austin Butler (Elvis) was the young upstart like Madison. Brendan Fraser (The Whale) was the once major movie star in a comeback vehicle that also involved heavy makeup work. Fraser got the gold.
I would put Moore and Madison’s chances of making the final five at 100% or at least 99.9999999%. The third “pen” pick is Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez. She would make history as the Academy’s first trans nominee. Gascón also made the cut at the key precursors and shared a Cannes victory for Best Actress with her costars. Some prognosticators have started wondering whether she’s a guaranteed nominee. While she’s maybe not a total certainty like our previous actresses, I’d say it’s really close. After all, Emilia Pérez might get the most nominations of any picture this time around. I don’t see that occurring without Emilia Pérez being in contention.
And then… it gets complicated. Before we move to the several performers jockeying for two spots, let’s pour one out for these actresses whose campaigns never got off the ground. In some cases, the films underperformed significantly with critics and audiences. In others, their studios didn’t mount an offensive drive for their inclusion. Some examples are Florence Pugh (We Live in Time), Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders), Ryan Destiny (The Fire Inside), Daisy Ridley (Young Woman and the Sea), Regina King (Shirley), Lily-Rose Depp (Nosferatu), and Marisa Abela (Back to Black). Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and June Squibb (Thelma) received a little more attention. However, they failed to show up in any significant other awards lists.
After that lengthy group, there’s a next level. These are actresses who may have shown up in some precursors or long lists, but aren’t expected to materialize in the Oscar quintet. Their chances aren’t completely out of reach like those in the previous paragraph. Yet it’s close. I would put Julianne Moore’s The Room Next Door costar Tilda Swinton in this class. Same with Zendaya (Challengers) and Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun).
This leaves us with eight performances vying for two spots: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), and Kate Winslet (Lee). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Amy Adams has the narrative of being long overdue for an Oscar. Despite six nominations, she’s yet to hear her name called. On paper, this seemed like a strong possibility but so-so reviews for Nightbitch have not helped. Despite a Globe nod and being in the BAFTA long list, I have her 8th of these 8 possibilities.
I might be more inclined to put Anderson in my five if it weren’t for Demi Moore’s comeback narrative. The Baywatch starlet is getting career best notices for this indie drama even if the film itself is drawing more mixed reactions. Her Globe nomination in Actress (Drama) wasn’t a huge surprise. The SAG nod this week was and it does increase her viability. I have her 5th of these 8 possibilities.
Cynthia Erivo is starring in one of the year’s largest blockbusters with Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list preceding a potential Oscar nod. If she were to win, Erivo would achieve EGOT status as she already has an Emmy, Grammy, and Tony on her resume. The only question mark is whether the amount of performers could squeeze her out. I doubt it. Erivo is ranked 1st of these 8 possibilities.
Marianne Jean-Baptiste is receiving plenty of critics prizes for her role in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Critics Choice and the BAFTA long list are in her corner though she notably missed SAG and the Globes. Leigh has a history of getting his actors nominated. Seeing her in the eventual quintet would not surprise, but she’s 4th of my 8 possibilities at press time.
Angelina Jolie’s inclusion for Pablo Larrain’s Maria seemed assured at one point after the picture premiered in Venice. In hindsight, the troubling signs could have been evident immediately. She did not take Best Actress at that festival. Since then, she’s missed SAG and the BAFTA long list while competing for the Globe and being nominated for Critics Choice. Her most notable blow came at the Globes. She was favored to win Best Actress in a Drama but fell short to Fernanda Torres. I still think she could get in though I have her just on the outside looking in and 3rd of my 8 possibilities.
For her performance in Babygirl, Nicole Kidman did win Best Actress at Venice and Globe and BAFTA long list spots followed. The recent snubs at Critics Choice and SAG are hard to ignore. She’s 6th among these 8 possibilities.
Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here had no major other precursors to her credit besides the Globe. No BAFTA long list. No Critics Choice. And no SAG attention this week. That win at the Globes, though, looms large and it occurred just as Academy voting was underway. That’s why she’s 2nd of these 8 possibilities.
Finally, Kate Winslet as Lee showed up at the Globes and BAFTA long list. Reviews for the project itself aren’t overly impressive. Winslet could get in because, well, she’s Kate Winslet. Nevertheless she’s 7th of these 8 possibilities.
Whew. OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actress for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actor up next!
The awards season kicks into high gear this Sunday when Nikki Glaser hosts the 82nd Golden Globe Awards on CBS. In several categories, it could be our first clue as to what direction Oscar will go. Perhaps there will be thespians who begin their sweeps. It’s the Globes so surprises could certainly be in order.
Looking over the nominees, there is a lot of uncertainty in many races. That’s befitting of a year in which there is no clear frontrunner (at least yet) for Best Picture and some acting derbies. Let’s run through each competition and I’ll give you my predicted winner and a runner-up.
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, September 5
The lack of a frontrunner begins at the top though this would appear to be between The Brutalist and Conclave (with perhaps Unknown as a spoiler). I’m giving the slight edge to the former, but Conclave emerging could easily occur.
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Conclave
Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)
Nominees: Anora, Challengers, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance, Wicked
Logic would dictate that the acclaimed Anora stands out front. Yet I can’t escape the fact that the Globes love their musicals and that could benefit Pérez and the box office behemoth Wicked. With ten nominations, Pérez is the most nominated Musical/Comedy in ceremony history. Ultimately I’m playing it safe with Anora, but this is up in the air more than some other prognosticators may feel.
Predicted Winner: Anora
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
Best Director
Nominees: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light)
While the Picture categories are tricky to project, I do feel relatively confident Corbet’s work prevails here.
Predicted Winner: Brady Corbet, The Substance
Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora
Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Kate Winslet (Lee)
If you go by my current forecasted quintet for Actress at the Oscars, I only have Jolie nominated among the six hopefuls here. That puts her out front in my view though Kidman and Torres could spoil.
Predicted Winner: Angelina Jolie, Maria
Runner-Up: Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Ugh. This one is tough. Being that I’m predicting The Brutalist as Best Pic, Brody stands an excellent shot. It’s also worth noting that he did not win the Globe for 2002’s The Pianist in which he took the Oscar so this would be his first statue from this branch. Brody is probably the safer selection, but I have a strange hunch that Chalamet (who had a dynamite 2024) ultimately makes the podium walk.
Predicted Winner: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Runner-Up: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)
Nominees: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Zendaya (Challengers)
While Erivo, Gascón, and Moore are all feasible upset picks, this might be the easiest of the six acting races to project. Madison is the favorite.
Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison, Anora
Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance
Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)
Nominees: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night), Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)
And this might be the toughest to project. All six nominees are long shots to make the cut at Oscar. Eisenberg is possible considering A Real Pain is contending elsewhere and he stars in the only film up for Best Pic. Powell is one of the buzziest leading men in recent years. Grant drew raves while Heretic being up in Musical or Comedy is a bit of a stretch. Stan is a double nominee and he’s got no chance in Drama so perhaps he emerges here. This is a four-way coin toss in my estimation.
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
Runner-Up: Hugh Grant, Heretic
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
The Globes can provide shockers in this one – Jodie Foster in The Mauritanian, anyone? That’s why Rossellini taking this wouldn’t be a massive surprise. This could, however, come down to Grande vs. Saldaña and I’m leaning toward the latter ever so slightly.
Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runne-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
I wouldn’t put it past the Globes to honor Washington, but I have this between Culkin and Pearce. Culkin has picked up a lot of critics prizes and this could be the beginning of a sweep. The same could be said for Pearce if he picks up the hardware. I’ll say Culkin in a close one.
Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Best Screenplay
Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance
This could be Conclave‘s strongest shot at a major award, but Anora is where you want to place your bets.
Predicted Winner: Anora
Runner-Up: Conclave
Best Non-English Language Motion Picture
Nominees: All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio
Especially considering its director Payal Kapadia is in contention, Light (which India did not select for International Feature Film at the Oscars) could win. Yet the safer pick is the nominations leading Pérez.
Predicted Winner: Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light
Best Animated Motion Picture
Nominees: Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
While Robot is the leading contender, I have a feeling the Globes may opt for Flow (which is racking up critics prizes left and right) in an upset.
Predicted Winner: Flow
Runner-Up: The Wild Robot
Best Original Score
Nominees: The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot
Like Drama, I think this is between Brutalist and Conclave. Like Drama, I have the former victorious.
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Conclave
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Forbidden Road” from Better Man; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
This might be our first clue as to which Pérez tune is the odds on favorite over the season. This could also be “Kiss the Sky” if the Pérez songs split. This is some straight guesswork here.
Predicted Winner: “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Nominees: Alien: Romulus, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Deadpool & Wolverine, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Twisters, Wicked, The Wild Robot
This sequel heavy lineup features 2024’s largest earner with Deadpool & Wolverine. It’s Wicked that likely ends up winning considering the nominations elsewhere.
Predicted Winner: Wicked
Runner-Up: Deadpool & Wolverine
And there you have it! My predictions give win totals to these pictures:
3 Wins
Anora, The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez
1 Win
A Complete Unknown, A Different Man, Flow, Maria, A Real Pain, Wicked
I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with my take on the ceremony and how I did (spoiler: I’m nervous).
Nominations for perhaps the most recognizable Oscar precursor show were unveiled this morning. We now know the pictures and personnel contending for the 82nd Golden Globe Awards, airing January 5th with Nikki Glaser hosting.
There are always surprises to be found with unexpected additions and subtractions in the cinematic races and that held true. I went 74 for 92 in my predictions. Of the 15 feature film categories, I went 6/6 in five of them.
As I projected, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez led the way with 10 nominations followed by The Brutalist‘s seven and Conclave‘s 6. Let’s break down each competition with how I did and some commentary on where I see the races currently.
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, September 5
How I Did: 5/6
September 5 gets in over Sing Sing. Perhaps the biggest shocker of the day is Sing Sing only generating one nomination for its lead Colman Domingo in Actor (Drama). Nickel Boys and September 5‘s noms mark their sole mentions. The Brutalist is probably out front but I wouldn’t sleep on Conclave.
Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)
Nominees: Anora, Challengers, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 6/6
Pérez could emerge here considering the haul this morning though Anora and Wicked (to a slightly lesser degree) are possibilities.
Best Director
Nominees: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light)
How I Did: 4/6
I did not have Berger (thought he was my runner-up) or Kapadia. Instead, I predicted Jon M. Chu (Wicked) and Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two. The latter is a surprising omission three years after he missed the cut at Oscar. Corbet is the favorite in my estimation even if it doesn’t take Motion Picture (Drama).
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Kate Winslet (Lee)
How I Did: 4/6
Anderson (my runner-up) and Torres are in contention over Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths and Saoirse Ronan in The Outrun. Jean-Baptiste is racking up critics awards and her omission is a bit unexpected. If Ronan can’t make it here, her Oscar odds are in serious trouble. This could come down to Jolie vs. Kidman. Fun fact: none of the pictures represented here are up for Best Drama (the only acting category where that is the case).
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 6/6
No surprises here as Brody, Chalamet, and Fiennes are vying for the statue.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Zendaya (Challengers)
How I Did: 5/6
Runner-up Adams is in over June Squibb (Thelma). Madison has the edge though I wouldn’t discount Erivo, Gascón, or Moore for the upset.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night), Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)
How I Did: 4/6
LaBelle and Plemons in with Michael Keaton (Beetlejuice Beetlejuice) and Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool & Wolverine) out. I don’t really think there’s a frontrunner though Eisenberg and Powell are maybe in the lead with Grant as a legit threat.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 6/6
Frankly I’m a little shocked I went 6 for 6 as there’s lots of contenders in this derby. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) is a snub many are pointing out. As for the winner, this is Grande vs. Saldaña.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
How I Did: 4/6
Culkin is getting lots of critics prize love while Pearce and Washington are threats. I didn’t have Norton or Strong and instead went with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) and Stanley Tucci (Conclave). I still think both of those performers could get into the Oscar dance.
Best Screenplay
Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance
How I Did: 5/6
Had Sing Sing instead of A Real Pain as Anora looks to nab this one.
Best Animated Motion Picture
Nominees: Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 6/6
This went as planned and The Wild Robot looks to capture this prize with Flow (a critics darling) looking to disrupt that plan.
Best Foreign Language Motion Picture
Nominees: All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio
How I Did: 5/6
Logic says Perez, but Kapadia’s directing nod opens for the door for Light.
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Nominees: Alien: Romulus, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Deadpool & Wolverine, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Twisters, Wicked, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 6/8
Went with Despicable Me 4 and Dune: Part Two and not Romulus and The Wild Robot. Dune missing is head scratching. This would be a good place to honor Wicked though Deadpool is the year’s largest grosser.
Best Score
Nominees: The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 6/6
This looks kinda wide open to me at the moment, but The Brutalist might be the slight favorite.
Best Song
Nominees: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Forbidden Road” from Better Man, “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
How I Did: 3/6
The blasted Song category represents my worst performance as “Beautiful” and “Compress” and “Forbidden” make the playlist over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, and “Piece by Piece” from the same titled feature. Betting odds favor Pérez and I’d go with “El Mal” though “Sky” is a possibility.
I’ll have winner predictions shortly before the January 5th ceremony and here’s a breakdown of all the features nominated.
10 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
The Brutalist
6 Nominations
Conclave
5 Nominations
Anora, The Substance
4 Nominations
Challengers, A Real Pain, Wicked, The Wild Robot
3 Nominatons
A Complete Unknown
2 Nominations
All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, The Last Showgirl
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Deadpool & Wolverine, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Heretic, Hit Man, Kinds of Kindness, Lee, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nickel Boys, Nightbitch, Queer, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, Sing Sing, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The 82nd Golden Globe Awards will come our way in a month on January 5th with Nikki Glaser handling hosting duties. Nominations are out this coming Monday (12/09). Readers of the blog know that I do a whole lotta Oscar speculating. That’s not the case with the GG’s but I’m giving you take on who and what will be nominated.
For the Globes, there are six nominees in each race with the exception of Cinematic and Box Office Achievement where there’s 8. I’ll give my picks along with a runner-up. Some quick notes: the Globes divide their Picture and lead acting derbies into Drama and Musical/Comedy. The designations below are the reported slots where films and performers are contending. Yes, there’s interesting choices with Heretic in comedy. On the flip side, if A Complete Unknown had submitted in Musical/Comedy, Timothée Chalamet might be the easy frontrunner in Best Actor.
Next week I’ll have a recap up with how I did and my early frontrunners for winners!
Best Motion Picture – Drama
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
ALTERNATE – The Room Next Door
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Anora
Challengers
Emilia Pérez
A Real Pain
The Substance
Wicked
ALTERNATE – A Different Man
Best Director
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Jon M. Chu, Wicked
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
ALTERNATE – Edward Berger, Conclave
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
Kate Winslet, Lee
ALTERNATE – Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Daniel Craig, Queer
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
ALTERNATE – John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comed
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
June Squibb, Thelma
Zendaya, Challengers
ALTERNATE – Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Hugh Grant, Heretic
Michael Keaton, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Glen Powell, Hit Man
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool & Wolverine
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
ALTERNATE – Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Best Supporting Actress
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
ALTERNATE – Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
ALTERNATE – Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Best Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Sing Sing
The Substance
ALTERNATE – A Real Pain
Best Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Moana 2
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
ALTERNATE – Piece by Piece
Best Non-English Language Film
All We Imagine as Light
Emilia Pérez
The Girl with the Needle
I’m Still Here
Kneecap
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
ALTERNATE – Universal Language
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Deadpool & Wolverine
Despicable Me 4
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Inside Out 2
Twisters
Wicked
ALTERNATE – Moana 2
Best Score
The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
The Wild Robot
ALTERNATE – The Room Next Door
Best Song
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
“Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece
ALTERNATE – “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl
That means I have these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
The Brutalist
6 Nominations
Conclave
5 Nominations
Anora, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
4 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
3 Nominations
Challengers, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Babygirl, Despicable Me 4, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Hard Truths, Heretic, Hit Man, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, Lee, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nickel Boys, The Outrun, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Thelma, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
My votes are in for my latest Oscar predictions at the 97th Academy Awards and I’ve elected to elevate Wicked into my BP top ten with Gladiator II sliding out. This is based on buzz for early screenings and I will readily admit that sometimes those viewings can elicit exaggerated reactions. We’ll see if Wicked sticks around in a way that Gladiator II didn’t (the two pics both open November 22nd).
In other movement, Edward Berger (Conclave) is back in my directorial quintet with RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) on the outside looking in. The five spot in Best Actor switches to Sebastian Stan playing a certain 45th POTUS with Daniel Craig (Queer) slipping. Ariana Grande’s witchy Wicked work enters the Supporting Actress derby with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) falling to sixth place. In Supporting Actor, on the other hand, Conclave’s Stanley Tucci re-enters with Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) now out. You can peruse all the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
11. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-3)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Substance (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door
September 5
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)
8. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-2)
10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)
8. September 5 (PR: 4) (-4)
9. The Substance (PR: 9) (E)
10. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
His Three Daughters
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)
5. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Grand Tour (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Armand (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Orion and the Dark
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Union (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daughters (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Maria (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Gladiator II
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)
7. Maria (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+4)
4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)
5. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Brutalist
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Better Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wicked (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)
10. Here (PR: 5) (-5)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: PartTwo
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez
8 Nominations
Conclave
6 Nominations
Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Twisters
1 Nomination
The Apprentice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Nosferatu, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, The Substance, Union, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
It’s been two weeks since I’ve updated my predictions in the feature-length categories and developments have occurred. Steve McQueen’s Blitz opened the London Film Festival and its Oscar stock took a hit. While I still have it being nominated in five categories including Picture and Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), it falls out of my high five in Director and Original Screenplay, among others.
Another significant screening was the industry’s first look at Gladiator II a month before it debuts. With the caveat that these previews are often hyperbolic, the 24 years in the making sequel’s fortunes improved. I now have it contending for seven statues including Best Picture. Its rise causes The Room Next Door to drop out of my 10 BP hopefuls. Denzel Washington also re-enters my Supporting Actor picks with Stanley Tucci (Conclave) now on the outside looking in.
In Director, Blitz‘s McQueen is out in favor of RaMell Ross of Nickel Boys. I’ve put Daniel Craig back in my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice (which opened to dismal box office).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+3)
12. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (-3)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)
14. September 5 (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2.Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)
10.Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)
10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. September 5 (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dídi
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Queer
A Complete Unknown
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 4) (-2)
7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Grand Tour (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cloud
Flow
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Wohirrim (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daughters (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Union (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
September 5
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 4) (+2)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blitz (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+8)
2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+3)
3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (-6)
8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Visusal Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Better Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
And that all works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Gladiator II
6 Nominations
Anora, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Blitz, Conclave
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Wicked
2 Nominations
Maria, Nosferatu, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, September 5, The Substance, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
At the 92nd Academy Awards that occurred in February 2020, Joker led the way with 11 nominations and 2 victories for Joaquin Phoenix in Actor and the Original Score. At the 97th ceremony, the story will be much different. Joker: Folie à Deux debuted yesterday. It currently has matching 32% ratings with critics and audiences and a D Cinemascore grade (the worst of 2024 and lower than Megalopolis).
A couple of months ago, Deux was seen as a repeat possibility in Best Picture and for Phoenix and costar Lady Gaga. Now I think it’s a legitimate question as to whether Joker gets any nominations at all. Even with the poor word-of-mouth and incoming subpar box office numbers, some tech races are still viable. However, I would not surprised if it totally blanks. That’s what I’m projecting at the moment.
We have a change in Best Picture with The Room Next Door back in over Saturday Night. There’s been a consistent 5 in Best Actor for weeks, but that’s interrupted with Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) sliding in with Daniel Craig (Queer) falling to sixth. In Supporting Actress, Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) rises over Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).
Speaking of Pérez, there’s uncertainty whether it will contend for Original or Adapted Screenplay. I’ve had it in the former and it now moves to the latter.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+2)
10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-3)
12. September 5 (PR: 14) (+2)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7 (E)
8. Mohammad Rasolouf, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)
10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Reitman, Saturday Night
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Drew Starkey, Queer
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+1)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. September 5 (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)
9. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay
The Substance
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Queer (PR: 6) (-3)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Piano Lesson
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dahomey
Caught by the Tides
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Flow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daughters (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Union (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Separated
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Anora (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (E)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+!)
7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Blitz (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 10) (+6)
5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Twisters
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 4) (E)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Better Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wicked (PR: 7) (-3)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Brutalist
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
9 Nominations
Blitz
6 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, A Real Pain
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
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