Tag: They Shot the Piano Player

2023 Oscar Predictions: September 23rd Edition

To say that September has given us plenty to think about when it comes to Oscar speculation is a massive understatement. Of course, it’s always been this way with the many titles premiering at the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals. Those fests cause the stock of certain pictures and performers to rise and fall.

In the past week alone, there’s been lots of big news. It was announced that Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) will vie for lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress (where she was seen as a strong favorite to win).

Then the nation of France shocked us by announcing that they’re selecting The Taste of Things to compete in International Feature Film instead of Anatomy of a Fall, which was also looked at as a frontrunner.

Finally, it was confirmed that Bob Marley: One Love will not be receiving a limited December release. Instead it’ll drop in February 2024 so we can officially write off Kingsley Ben-Adir’s chances for this year.

For now, I’m still predicting that Anatomy will materialize in the Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay races. I am dropping its director Justine Triet from my projected five.

As for the Gladstone news, I’m slotting her right behind Emma Stone (Poor Things) in the lead derby. Gladstone’s disappearance in Supporting Actress causes Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) to become #1 (I’d had Gladstone in first for months prior to the surprising announcement). Viola Davis (Air) is back in my five due to the developments.

Readers of the blog know that over the past few days, I did individual posts updating Picture, Director, and the four acting races. I also whittled BP down from 25 to 15 possibilities and the others from 15 to 10.

With Barbie‘s announced move to Original Screenplay, it moves to #1 over Past Lives. In Adapted, festival love propels Poor Things to the top spot over Killers of the Flower Moon.

A noteworthy Actress alteration besides Gladstone joining the quintet is Barbie herself (Margot Robbie) making the cut. Greta Lee (Past Lives) and Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) are now on the outside looking in.

Here’s where I have it shaking out in my first full predictions in nearly a month!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)

6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-3)

10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (E)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. Origin (PR: 13) (E)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)

15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Anthony Hopkins, One Life

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon – moved to Best Actress

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-2)

5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted Screenplay

2. Past Lives (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Air (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 3) (-3)

7. May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saltburn (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rustin

Napoleon

The Boy and the Heron

The Book of Clarence

The Iron Claw

A Thousand and One

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predited Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (-1)

4. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 15) (+10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Origin (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Barbie – moved to Original Screenplay

One Life

BlackBerry

Next Goal Wins

The Nickel Boys

Dumb Money

The Killer

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)

5. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Delinquents (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Promised Land (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Il capitano (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Anatomy of a Fall

Monster

The Boy and the Heron

La Chimera

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nimona (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Suzume (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia

They Shot the Piano Player

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. American Symphony (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Every Body (PR: 4) (-5)

10. It Ain’t Over (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wild Life

The Deepest Breath

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Barbie (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Chevalier (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Wonka (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ferrari (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

The Killer

The Color Purple

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Priscilla (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nyad (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Golda (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Beau is Afraid

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Killer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

One Life

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 5) (+2)

4. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (E)

8. “High Life” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10 (+1)

10. “Dance The Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Steal the Show” from Elemental

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)

7. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Ferrari (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Napoleon (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Creator

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Rebel Moon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

The Little Mermaid

And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

10 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Color Purple

6 Nominations

Maestro

4 Nominations

The Holdovers

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

Air, American Fiction, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Wish, The Zone of Interest

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Orlando, My Political Biography, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, 20 Days in Mariupol

2023 Oscar Predictions: August 28th Edition

You could correctly call this Oscar Predictions post the calm before the festival storm as Venice kicks off this week with Telluride and Toronto right behind it. Yet a major development occurred last week as the sands of time are moving slower for Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two. The epic sequel was pushed back to the spring of 2024.

How big of an impact does that make for my forecasts? A heavy one as I had it achieving 11 nominations. In my previous projections on August 16th, that was second only to Oppenheimer‘s 12. I had it ranked 1st in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects, 2nd in Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound, 3rd in Picture and Director, and 4th for Adapted Screenplay.

In fact, a victory for Dune in Visual Effects was probably the easiest race to call this early (its predecessor won too). Now it makes the VE contest quite interesting. Oppenheimer could take the prize and mark Christopher Nolan’s second win in a row in the category after 2020’s Tenet. It opens the door wider for The Creator from Gareth Edwards. And there’s now more of a shot for the MCU to nab its first statue in VE for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in particular.

I plan to do my next update on Labor Day (September 4th). By that time, we will have reviews and buzz from Venice premieres including Ferrari, Maestro, Poor Things, Priscilla, and The Killer. We’ll also have the word out for whatever pics debut at Telluride (to be announced Thursday).

Right after that update on the 4th, the rest of the Venice titles and a slew of Toronto movies will be unveiled. They include The Holdovers, Rustin, Dumb Money, Next Goal Wins, Society of the Snow, Origin, Pain Hustlers, Nyad, Lee, American Fiction, The Burial, and Hit Man.

In other words… it’s about to get really interesting, folks! I’m also dropping some titles that I’m just not sure are actually releasing in 2023 like The Piano Lesson. Obviously, it will re-enter the dance if there’s confirmation on a release this year. Questions persist about other ones. Is Long Day’s Journey Into Night happening before December 31st? Is Shirley or Freud’s Last Session? Will other currently scheduled releases pull a Dune? The answer is likely affirmative.

With the Dune shift, Air moves back into my BP 10 and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in Director over Denis Villeneuve. In non-Dune related shifts, Sandra Huller is now #1 in Actress over The Color Purple‘s Fantasia Barrino. Charles Melton from May December hits my Supporting Actor five over Willem Dafoe (Poor Things).

You can read all the movement below and my next update with the Venice buzz arrives in a week!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)

10. Air (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Saltburn (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)

15. Ferrari (PR: 16) (+1)

16. The Killer (PR: 17) (+1)

17. May December (PR: 20) (+3)

18. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (E)

19. One Life (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-1)

21. Rustin (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (E)

23. Dumb Money (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

25. The Book of Clarence (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

The Piano Lesson

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

7. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (E)

11. Caille Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (E)

12. Aunjanue Ellis, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Helen Mirren, Golda

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)

12. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (-1)

14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (E)

11. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: 11) (E)

12. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Air (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)

11. Napoleon (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)

15. A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)

8. One Life (PR: 9) (+1)

9. BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (E)

13. Dumb Money (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Killer (PR: 15) (+1)

15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

The Piano Lesson

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Taste of Things (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Monster (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)

9. La Chimera (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

El Conde

The Delinquents

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nimona (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: 9) (E)

10. They Shot the Piano Player (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)

4. Every Body (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (E)

7. Orlando, A Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wild Life (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Black Ice

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Chevalier (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (E)

8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Air (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Killer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ferrari (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Golda (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked

10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Wonka

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Poor Things

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)

4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities

6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Napoleon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ferrari (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Barbie

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Creator (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Rebel Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wonka (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Little Mermaid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Killers of the Flower Moon

Blue Beetle

That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

8 Nominations

Barbie, Maestro

7 Nominations

The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things

5 Nominations

Napoleon

4 Nominations

Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest

2 Nominations

Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, The Killer, May December, Monster, Nimona, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol